Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks with then-EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier in February 2019.
France’s new PM: Barnier gets the job, but Le Pen holds the cards
Barnier’s biggest job will be to reassure Brussels and investors that he can lead France out of the political and fiscal crisis that has plagued the country for months. In particular, he’ll have to fill a big shortfall in this year’s budget and pass a deficit-cutting budget for 2025. To help with this tall task, he’ll try to form a national unity government that includes influential politicians from the center-left, Macron’s centrist bloc, and the center-right.
But, as Eurasia Group’s lead Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman warns, Barnier doesn’t begin from a position of political strength. He represents his country’s center-right, which won just 47 of the 577 deputies in the new National Assembly. “The key figure for Barnier’s survival will be the far right’s Marine Le Pen," Rahman says. Given the math, and the eagerness of the far left to push Barnier out, “Le Pen has the power to bring down the Barnier government whenever she chooses."
Members of parliament hold placards after the result of the vote on the first motion of no-confidence against the French government at the National Assembly in Paris, France, March 20, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Slim win for Macron, protests in South Africa, Trump’s legal woes, Colombia peace collapsing?
Macron’s narrow escape
It came down to the wire, but Emmanuel Macron’s government narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in France’s National Assembly on Monday, with 278 voting to topple the government, nine votes shy of the threshold needed to pass.
Quick recap: The motion was triggered after Macron used a constitutional provision last week -- bypassing a vote in the lower house -- to pass a controversial pension reform despite weeks of protests (more on that here).
Not only do 70% of French adults abhor Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age to 64 from 62 by 2030 – which he says is necessary to plug the growing debt hole – but the French electorate, which has long had a libertarian streak, is also furious that the government used what it says is an anti-democratic loophole to pass the measure.
Macron’s troubles are only just beginning. Hundreds were arrested in Paris over the weekend and on Monday as anti-government protests turned violent and smelly. Unions have called for nationwide demonstrations and strikes in a bid to pressure the government to roll back the measures (which will never happen).
Prime Minister Élizabeth Borne will likely take the fall and resign. Still, Macron, already unpopular before this debacle, will emerge a diminished political figure. After previously saying he understood that people were “tired of reforms which come from above,” it will be very hard for the ideological chameleon to regain the trust of vast swathes of the population.
South Africa’s day of demonstrations
Amid rolling blackouts and a slumping economy, the Marxist-linked Economic Freedom Fighters Party called for a national day of protests Monday, putting law enforcement on high alert.
The EFF, the country’s third-largest party led by longtime leader Julius Malema, is largely backed by poor Black South Africans, many of whom live in townships, as well as younger voters who feel they haven't benefited from the ruling African National Congress Party’s tenure in the post-apartheid era. Indeed, around one-third of South Africans are out of work and the economy is slated to grow by just 0.3% in 2023, down from 2.5% in 2022.
President Cyril Ramaphosa mobilized more than 3,000 troops nationwide in anticipation of mass protests. But turnout was lower than expected, prompting Malema to claim that the government was blocking buses transporting protesters.
The EFF “will still claim the wall-to-wall media coverage around the protests as a victory,” says Ziyanda Sturrman, a South Africa expert at Eurasia Group.
None of this is good news for Ramaphosa, who, after a series of political scandals, looks set to lose his parliamentary majority in next year’s general election. Still, Stuurman notes that if the ANC falls just below the 50% threshold, several small parties have already put their hands up to join an ANC-led coalition.
Trump vs. prosecutors
Former US President Donald Trump faces possible legal challenges on multiple fronts. The state of New York could charge him with fraud for alleged hush money payments to a porn star. The Justice Department could charge him with many suspected crimes related to efforts to overthrow the result of the 2020 election as well as the misuse of hundreds of classified documents recovered by the FBI from his Florida home. Prosecutors in Georgia could charge him with election fraud as part of his alleged effort to overturn that state’s 2020 election result.
If Trump is indicted, he’ll likely present himself for charges, while also calling for protests. He would then be released on bond pending trial, and it’s unlikely that any trial in any of these potential cases would take place in 2023.
Trump would continue his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. There’s nothing in the US Constitution to prevent him from being elected president. His fate would remain with voters. If elected, his presidency would begin in court. In theory, a president could pardon himself for federal crimes. That would have to be tested. But no president can pardon state-level crimes, like those he might be charged with in New York and Georgia. In short, prosecutors and Trump may be about to steer American politics into uncharted waters.
Colombia: Is Petro’s “total peace” going to pieces?
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro took office last year pledging to reach a negotiated “total peace” with the country’s various armed and criminal groups. But on Monday that strategy took a big hit when he was forced to suspend a three-month-old ceasefire with the fearsome Clan del Golfo (Gulf Clan), the Andean region’s most powerful narco-trafficking outfit. The Clan had allegedly attacked an aqueduct and opened fire on police officers.
The move puts Petro in a tough spot — ramping up military action risks escalating a conflict he was elected in part to end peacefully. But allowing cartels to run riot isn’t an option either.
The setback comes amid a broader season of discontent for Petro: a corruption investigation of his son, the departure of several key coalition ministers, and an approval rating that is net-negative barely six months since he took office.
Petro, a former guerilla who is the country’s first left-wing president, has made an effort to build bridges across the political spectrum so far. But his critics worry that if the going gets tougher, he might resort to a more populist style that could be explosive in a country as polarized as Colombia.
Will Marine Le Pen's rebrand help her win?
Many people know a few basic facts about Marine Le Pen, head of France's far-right National Rally party. They know that she is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of her party's predecessor, the National Front, known mainly for xenophobia and anti-semitism. They know that she is firmly anti-immigration and adopts a harsh view of what she calls "the rise of Islamism." Marine Le Pen has built a political identity based on these appeals.
But recently, Le Pen has tried to rebrand her image in order to win votes ahead of France's upcoming presidential elections in April 2022. What is Le Pen trying to change, and how might this impact her electoral prospects?
Policy shifts. For years, the junior Le Pen called for France to exit the European Union, arguing that ceding sovereignty to the "globalist" EU strips political power from the French working class. Having once called Europe a "prison" and vowing to hold a UK-style referendum on leaving the bloc, Le Pen has since said that she does not supportFrexit: the EU should be reformed from within, she says.
In particular, Le Pen has cited the rise of right-wing European movements — like Lega in Italy and the Swedish Democrats — as proof that there is growing consensus within other European countries for the EU to adopt her ideas on curbing migration into the Union, as well as weakening the European Commission, the bloc's executive branch, which she says has acquired powers far beyond those given to it in treaties.
As part of this shift, Le Pen has also abandoned part of her populist economic agenda, saying that replacing the euro would cause too much instability — likely an effort to appeal to fiscally conservative French voters who might otherwise support the center-right Republicains.
Personal image. For years, Le Pen marketed herself as a tough, no-holds-barred politician, referring to herself as a "warrior" of sorts. But even as she prepares for the fight of her political life, it is clear that the 52-year old veteran politician is now trying to soften her image. "It's time to drop my armor," she said in one recent interview, adding: "I think I have the maturity today, to drop this toughness," before highlighting her qualities as a mother. Some analysts see this as part of a push to broaden her appeal, particularly to women and younger voters.
In tweaking her brand and positioning the National Rally as mainstream, Le Pen is also trying to court establishment center-right voters dissatisfied with the country's current trajectory. (At an event in western France, Le Pen introduced a prominent French businessman as the head of NR's ticket in regional elections, trying to appeal to other would-be defectors .)
And for now, this approach appears to be working: Le Pen is neck-and-neck in the polls with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron.
An unpopular incumbent. Le Pen's campaign is aided by the fact that she will likely face a very unpopular incumbent. Even before the pandemic, Macron's approval rating was weak (67 percent disapproved of his performance). He had lost the support of much of the left-wing flank who think he has shown too much deference to corporate interests and failed to follow through on climate mitigation efforts. This was evident when Macron's La République En Marche party got thrashed in local elections last year.
Perceptions that Macron has mishandled the pandemic have only weakened his standing with the French electorate. This helps Le Pen, who is now traveling the country and mingling with voters, while Macron is focused on reopening the economy after 14-months of painful lockdowns.
Indeed, it's possible that lack of enthusiasm for Macron's candidacy could lead to low voter turnout next year that would make it harder for him to clear the 50 percent threshold needed to secure the presidency than it was in 2017, when in the second round of voting Macron trounced his opponent… Marine Le Pen.
Once a Le Pen, always a Le Pen. Le Pen, aware she can't afford to lose her traditional voters, isn't trying to redefine her entire shtick. In April, she backed a contentious letter by retired French military officials that said "Islamism" was leading France toward a "civil war" — a view reiterated in a letter last week by active military members who wrote: "If a civil war breaks out, the army will maintain order on its own soil." Le Pen also continues to use anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric that many say have inflamed inter-communal tensions in France.
And even if Le Pen wants voters to see her in a new light, the Le Pen brand might still be too toxic to get her into the Élysée Palace. For many French sympathetic to her views on immigration and "Islamism," memories of Jean Le Pen's racism and anti-semitism remain too much to overcome.
French politics heat up over "civil war" letter
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:
What's the issue with the letter in France talking about the "civil war"?
Well, I think it is part of the beginning of the French election campaign. We have some people in the military encouraged by the more right-wing forces, warning very much for the Muslim question. That's part of the upstart to the election campaign next year. More to come, I fear.
Is there any update on the EU accession for the Western Balkan countries?
There was a meeting of the EU foreign ministers the other day and they were very much in favor of the process. But we still have the question of the Bulgarians blocking off Macedonia for historical unrelated reasons that are completely unacceptable but is a fact. And we also don't know really where the French are. So we are still waiting for the important decision on that.
US donates vaccines to India; Macron v Le Pen; EU tourism
Ian Bremmer answers this week's questions on the biggest stories in global politics:
The United States says it will now donate 60 million COVID doses. Who are they going to?
Well, they're not COVID doses, because we don't want to give people coronavirus. They're vaccines. It's AstraZeneca, which we don't need in the United States. We haven't even approved yet. They are somewhat less effective than Moderna and Pfizer, but they're damned effective and you should take them, and they're going almost exclusively to India. And that is fully appropriate because India, we know about 350,000 cases a day. In reality, if you look at the positivity rates and level of disclosure, it's probably five to 10x that. This is by far the largest epicenter of the coronavirus crisis to date in the world. But they're not going to be getting these doses until probably June. And meanwhile, they're under very serious trouble right now. And there's a lot of recrimination, central government, local governments. The US has been slow. We should've made this announcement frankly a month ago, but I'm glad we're doing it.
Should Macron be concerned about the rise of the right a year out from election in France?
He should be a little concerned because his approval ratings are horrible on the back of the gilets jaunes crisis, and now you've got the coronavirus crisis and yeah, he's not doing well. But that doesn't mean that he's going to lose. He is behind in polls right now to Marine Le Pen a little bit, but in the second round, everyone that isn't pro Le Pen is against Le Pen, and he gets all of those votes and Le Pen gets the core Le Pen votes and she loses. And that is almost certainly what is going to happen. So I wouldn't be all that worried, even though the far right in France, on the back of a lot of Islamic extremism and recent attacks, a lot more than the United States, is a problem.
Is the EU ready to welcome American tourists back? What will that look like?Well, I mean, they're ready to start opening borders to American tourists. There will be vaccine passports certainly, will require that you show that you've had a vaccine, at the very least, that you have a negative test, and Americans will be able to travel to Europe. And I think that's a big deal. About 80% of the countries in the world right now the US is not recommending travel to, and the developing world, much of it around the world is going to take a lot longer to roll out effective vaccines, and never mind herd immunity, just get to the point that you don't have these massive spikes in cases, South America, South Asia, Southeast Asia, India, as I already mentioned. Europe is about two to three months behind the United States. They need the tourism, they need the money. They're going to open the borders, and Americans will be able to travel, showing that they are either immune through vaccine or have taken a negative test. And so we'll get there, and hopefully we'll get a little closer as a consequence.
What We're Watching: Le Pen on the rise, big leak in Iran, bad omen for Japan's LDP
Why is Marine Le Pen gaining momentum in France? "Each time France is hit by terrorism, the extreme right benefits," one French journalist told the Times Friday after an immigrant from Tunisia, who had been in the country illegally for a decade, fatally stabbed a French policewoman on the outskirts of Paris. After the attack, Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally party, called for illegal immigrants to be "expelled" and for the "eradication of Islamism." As France continues to suffer from a series of Islamist terror attacks, polls show that Le Pen's hardline views on immigration and anti-Muslim sentiment are resonating with many mainstream voters. That's in part because France has suffered more terror attacks in recent years than any other Western country. Le Pen's electoral prospects are also getting help from President Macron's dismal performance: his approval rating has plummeted (he now has a 60 percent disapproval rating) because of perceptions that his government has botched the pandemic response and the vaccine rollout. Trying to appeal to the center-right before the attack, Macron vowed to uphold "the right to a peaceful life," and after Friday's killing said his government would get tough on "Islamist terrorism." But the opposition said the president's words are tokenistic and don't go nearly far enough. With just a year until the next presidential election, Le Pen is seizing the moment while Macron is mired in a deepening political crisis.
Leaked audio in Iran: Who Done It? Just weeks after the start of Vienna-based talks that aim to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Tehran finds itself rocked by a political scandal after Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was caught on tape dissing the country's hardline political elite. In the recording, Zarif, a fierce proponent of the nuclear deal, accuses Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) of attempting to scuttle the nuclear pact, and accuses popular General Qassim Suleimani, who was killed in a US attack last year, of colluding with Russia to "demolish" efforts at a rapprochement with the West. The timing of the leaked audio is particularly curious given that Iran's presidential election is just six weeks from now. So who leaked? Analysts say it was probably political hardliners aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who released it as part of a plan to embarrass and discredit Zarif, perhaps to stop him from running for president himself. (In Iran, deriding the IRGC, a military force established during the revolution that plays a major role overseeing Tehran's foreign policy, is not a popular look.) We're watching to see if there's any more political fallout from the tapes, and how they'll affect the vote.
Japan's PM suffers three ominous losses: On Sunday, Japan held special elections to fill three parliamentary seats vacated over the past year. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost all of them to the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, suggesting that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is in rough shape politically as general elections approach this fall. Suga took over the top job last August after the long-serving Shinzo Abe resigned due to poor health. While Suga was initially popular, the economic impact of the COVID pandemic and a sluggish vaccine rollout have hurt him. Importantly, a series of recent graft scandals also seem to have sapped his support: two of the three elections held over the weekend were for seats vacated by LDP politicians implicated in bribery scandals. Suga must call general elections before mid-October, which are sure to be a big test for the LDP at a time when the people of Japan are increasingly frustrated and impatient with their leaders.
US sanctions on Russia don't hit hard; Nicolas Sarkozy found guilty
Ian Bremmer discusses the World In (a little over) 60 Seconds:
The Biden administration announced its first sanctions. How will it affect US-Russia relations?
Not very much. About as bad as they were under the Trump administration, even though Trump personally wanted to be aligned with Putin, the administration was not. This is the same approach on sanctions as we've seen from the European Union, they could go a lot harder. It's not sector level. It's not major state enterprises. It's a few Russian officials that were involved in the chemical program for Russia. And at the end of the day, the Russians are annoyed, but they're not going to hit back. That's that. Okay.
Myanmar's protests are getting more violent. Will it get worse and how will end?
It's hard to imagine it not getting worse. I mean, now you see dozens getting killed in one day. The fact is that Aung San Suu Kyi would be allowed back in government eventually, probably, if that meant that the military still was able to control the elections. I can't see her being willing to do that and provide the legitimacy. And so, as a consequence, you kind of have a standoff where they can push the elections earlier, but it's going to be unfree and unfair. And that means that Myanmar is going to still be run by the military. And the Chinese government is more than happy with that. You are starting to see some other governments in the region trying to act as conduits for discussion to see if a compromise can be worked out because clearly the violence is troubling. Hard to see it happening. So again, this is going to get uglier before it gets better.
What's the story with former French President Nicholas Sarkozy going to jail?
Well, he has a three-year sentence, two of which has been suspended, but one is going to be house arrest. First time you've seen that from a former French president, and for corruption for influence peddling. And so, that's a pretty big precedent in France. We've already seen it, of course in Italy with Berlusconi. Big question is, do we see it in the United States? People will be talking about that, no question.