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Countries' risk perceptions of the US
Graphic Truth: Who's afraid of the US
Each year, the Munich Security Conference – the Super Bowl of international security events – asks leaders what they believe are the biggest risks facing their countries. This year’s poll found that fears of the US skyrocketed in seven of the 10 countries surveyed between October 2023 and November 2024, as Donald Trump’s return to the White House went from possibility to reality.
Risks perceptions of the US increased the most for Germany and Canada – growing by 21 points each. For Germany, the jump was likely fueled by memories of Trump’s first term, when he cast doubt on NATO and threatened to withdraw troops from Germany, combined with campaign trail threats to halt Ukraine aid and implement tariffs on the EU. Canada, meanwhile, knew it would soon face the threat of 25% tariffs from its biggest trading partner. Notably, this data was taken before Trump began threatening to make Canada the “51st state,” and could be higher today.
The only country where risk outlooks stayed the same was the US’ greatest rival, China. It decreased by 1 point in Brazil, and by 7 points in South Africa – where the government likely did not foresee Trump’s ally, Elon Musk, taking issue with its recent land policy and Trump threatening to halt aid to the country.
“The United States today is the biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty on the global stage,” says Eurasia Group and GZERO founder Ian Bremmer. “Uniquely in modern history, it’s a country committed to unwinding large pieces of a global order that the United States itself has built and led.”
Ian Bremmer: US support for Ukraine vs fear of Russian escalation
Rogue Russia is Eurasia Group's #1 top geopolitical risk for 2023. But what does that mean if you're Ukraine?
For Ian Bremmer, so far Ukraine and NATO have been very aligned on their goals. But that might change in the future if Ukraine's demands threaten unity between the US and its allies, he said in a GZERO Live conversation about Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2023 report.
The West will continue supporting Kyiv. But the last thing America wants is to risk giving the Ukrainians too much or too fast that it'll risk an escalation that could lead to nuclear war.
At the end of the day, Bremmer suggests, what Ukraine might find reasonable to ask for might not be reasonable for the US to provide.
Read Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2023 report here.
Watch the full live conversation: Top Risks 2023: A rogue Russia and autocrats threatening the world
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