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Will offensive Puerto Rico remarks hurt Trump's chances?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With the US election a week away, why do Israelis prefer a Trump presidency?
Well, they see that he's prioritized Israel. His first presidency, he was the guy that went to Israel. This was his first trip right after going to the Gulf. That never happens with US presidents. He recognized the Golan Heights as being Israeli territory, the occupied territory they have. Had no problems with taking more territory in the West Bank. Moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem. I mean, this has just been someone who has been significantly and consistently pro-Israel, and a lot of his money comes from some of the biggest Israeli-sponsored funds and funders in the United States. I suspect that that is the reason. Keep in mind, lots of US allies around the world. Most of them generally don't support Trump. They support Harris because "America First" is not considered exactly a happy marketing slogan if you don't happen to be American. But Israel, like Hungary, like El Salvador, like Argentina, a few others, the exceptions of that.
How might the results of the Georgia elections and subsequent protests affect political stability and EU membership prospects?
Well, the Georgia Dream Party that has won have said that they still want to join the European Union. But given the fact that they have moved their legal system in a more illiberal direction, they make it much harder for Georgia to join the EU. Of course, that process has been not moved forward while it did for Ukraine and for Moldova over the last year. Also, the fact that it looks like Georgia Dream has done everything they can to steal the elections through election monitors that we've seen in rural areas across the country. Again, not a way to move forward with the European Union. It looks a lot less likely and political instability in Georgia is something we're going to see a lot more of going forward.
To what extent will Puerto Rico and Latino voters sway the election in Kamala Harris's favor?
Hard to say. But the fact that there was a really offensive slur against Puerto Ricans on stage in advance of Trump's big rally at Madison Square Garden this weekend, one that even the Trump campaign felt the need to distance the president from, former president, which they almost never do. This is a guy that doubles down on almost everything is because there are a lot of Puerto Ricans that vote. That's particularly true in swing states, particularly true in Pennsylvania, several hundred thousand. Certainly, that's why Kamala Harris is immediately running ads and putting money behind it on the other side. Trump has not made many mistakes in the last couple of weeks that look like they're vote losers in swing states, and this is one in my view. Whoever this comic is, clearly the jokes weren't adequately vetted. But will it make a difference? Well, we'll see you on Tuesday. Right? This is a razor's edge election and it's going to be super close in my view. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Did Georgia fall out of the EU’s orbit and into Russia’s? ›
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Supporters of the Georgian Dream party wave Georgian and party flags from cars after the announcement of poll results in parliamentary elections, in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Oct. 26, 2024.
Is the Georgian Dream the West’s nightmare?
Opposition coalitions in the country of Georgia and its pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili are accusing the incumbent Georgian Dream of stealing Saturday’s election, calling the results “falsified” and a “constitutional coup.” While the country’s electoral commission declared Georgian Dream the winner with 54% of the vote, several exit polls predicted a win for the opposition. Three monitoring organizations, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, cited irregularities such as vote buying, double voting, hate speech, and Russian disinformation.
“For now, Western governments are cautious in outright rejecting the election results, instead calling on Georgia's Central Election Commission to conduct investigations to reveal the violations,” says Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born analyst at Eurasia Group. But it is clear to everyone – including the Georgian Dream's leadership – that without significant manipulations and voter intimidation, the ruling party would have failed to secure a decisive win.”
The results bode poorly for Georgia’s accession to the EU: While Georgian Dream has promised a path to membership – something 80% of Georgians support – its rhetoric has grown increasingly authoritarian, anti-Western, and pro-Russia and China.
“The European Council has vowed to assess the latest developments and determine the EU's next steps in its relations with Georgia next month. We can expect the country's EU accession process to remain halted indefinitely, even if the ruling regime continues to insist that they are still moving toward eventual EU membership,” says Japaridze.
The party’s founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s, campaigned on keeping Georgia out of the war in Ukraine, and the party has proposed anti-LGBTQ+ laws mirroring those in Russia.
What’s next? Pro-western opposition leaders are planning protests and a Parliamentary boycott, similar to the five-month stalemate that followed Georgia’s 2020 election, which EU mediators eventually sorted out. But that’s not likely to happen in 2024: Georgian Dream has vowed to outlaw its opponents and pro-western groups.
“Despite pulling out all of the stops, the ruling party failed to garner enough votes to achieve a so-called constitutional majority in the parliament, which will make it very difficult for them to single-handedly amend the constitution, override presidential vetoes, and ban political opposition,” says Japaridze.
Meanwhile, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban announced a visit to Tbilisi on Monday – another sign that authoritarianism is gaining ground.
“President Zourabichvili has vowed to continue this battle, calling on those who believe Georgia's future is in Europe and not in Moscow's backyard to take to the streets starting tonight. Uncertainty about what happens next mixed with anger over a blatantly stolen election is a very potent motivator, especially for the youth.”
Herschel Walker's abortion news bad for GOP, but ad spend will determine control of US Senate
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
Which US Senate candidate has had the worst week?
The battle for the Senate remains very close with both parties having plausible paths to a majority in the November elections. Republicans have massively underperformed in several states that were held by Democrats that were supposed to be competitive this year, but aren't.
New Hampshire looks all but out of reach given the unpopularity of the Republican candidate there, and while Arizona could still be a pickup, the forecast today is leaning strongly towards the incumbent Democratic senator, an ex-astronaut who has not made any major mistakes so far in his re-election bid. Far more interesting are races in Nevada and Georgia. Republicans could potentially pick up one or even two seats.
The race in Pennsylvania where TV doctor Mehmet Oz is suffering under the spotlight as a first-time candidate, potentially costing the Republicans a seat that they currently control. Oz is coming on stronger in recent weeks, attacking the Democrat in the race as being too liberal for the swing state. These attacks have helped Oz close his polling gap from 10 points to just below six, and he's been benefiting from millions of dollars in outside spending that's helping him, despite some damaging reporting this week that he experimented on dogs earlier in his career.
Having a far worse week than Oz is Georgia candidate Herschel Walker, a former running back at the University of Georgia who's running for a seat that Republicans need to win if they want to control the Senate. A news site this week reported that Walker, who's now pro-life, paid for his girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009. His son, who has an influential YouTube channel as a conservative, came out on Twitter condemning his dad for abandoning him and his mom, a woman that Walker had previously threatened with a gun.
Prior to this week, Walker had been seen as having probably the Republicans' best chance of picking up a seat in this cycle, and he still could pick up that seat, but the Georgia election's a weird one because if neither candidate gets to over 50% of the vote, they will go to a runoff in December 6th where turnout could be a lot different than it will be on election day in November. Walker will no longer benefit from the popular incumbent governor on top of the ticket.
Walker is probably having the worst week of anybody running for Senate right now, but these races are far from over and will be defined by tens of billions of dollars in negative advertising over the final weeks of the campaign.