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Norway's PM Jonas Støre says his country can power Europe
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre is optimistic about his country’s progress in the global energy transition, particularly regarding the pivot from reliance on fossil fuels to a broader adoption of renewable energy sources. And given Norway’s increased importance in supplying Europe with energy, the transition could not come a moment too soon. “I think the energy transition is happening... For the first time you have written down in text all agreeing that there will be a transition out of fossil fuels,” Støre tells Ian in a wide-ranging interview for GZERO World on the sidelines of the Munich Security conference. Støre extolls the significant strides being made despite the prevailing geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges.
Støre points out the collaborative spirit of the international community, which he witnessed at COP 28. The Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of market incentives, technological innovation, and political will in driving these changes. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition." Støre and Ian also touch on the need for a loss and damages fund to support the countries most affected by climate change, underscoring the ongoing efforts to provide financial mechanisms for environmental preservation and sustainable development.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Why Washington is chatting up Nicolás Maduro again
You can isolate some of the oil-rich strongmen all of the time, or all of the oil-rich strongmen some of the time, but that’s about it these days, as Joe Biden is quickly learning.
Last week, it emerged that the White House is exploring ways to relax certain sanctions against the Venezuelan regime of Nicolás Maduro. Under a proposed deal, Washington would allow US oil major Chevron to resume exporting oil from the country while Maduro, for his part, would agree to restart talks with the opposition about free and fair elections.
As a reminder, a 2018 crisis brought on by Maduro’s repression and economic mismanagement drove millions of Venezuelans abroad. It also landed the country under “maximum pressure” financial and energy sanctions from the US, which were designed to squeeze Maduro — the heir to “21st Century Socialist” Hugo Chávez — from power.
Spoiler: it failed. Maduro and his cronies stuck it out, aided by a fractious opposition that squandered the confidence of its foreign backers. Now things are looking up for Maduro.
The Ukraine war is, of course, exacerbating a global energy crunch. And with the West seeking to isolate one oil superpower – Russia – Washington has had to look elsewhere for help bringing down prices.
Last week’s OPEC+ decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day was a slap in the face to Biden. Washington had urged its eternal frenemies the Saudis to boost output to ease global price pressures and punch a hole in Vladimir Putin’s war chest. All of that has suddenly cast Venezuela, owner of the world’s largest oil reserves, in an even softer light as a longer-term option for getting more barrels back onto the market. The country once pumped as much as 3.5 million barrels daily before mismanagement and sanctions wrecked the industry. Today’s output is barely even 700,000 barrels.
And it’s not just the global context that’s changed, according to Risa Grais-Targow, a Latin America specialist at Eurasia Group. “The entire region is basically leftist now,” she says, “or it really will be when Lula wins in Brazil, so there's just no coalition there behind the US policy stance on Venezuela anymore.”
As if to underscore the point, Colombia, the US’ closest ally in the region, recently elected its first left-wing president, Gustavo Petro. One of his first steps was to reestablish ties with neighboring Venezuela, which his center-right predecessor had cut. (You can see GZERO’s full interview with Petro here.)
Would sanctions relief really change things in Venezuela? It would give the regime a fresh revenue stream, as Chevron has joint ventures with the state oil company, PDVSA. And signaling a thaw in US-Venezuela ties would help Caracas sell its oil to China and other Asian buyers at something closer to full price – for years, PDVSA has had to sell to them at knockdown rates over fears that the US might impose financial sanctions on any countries that buy from Venezuela.
What’s more, a deal could also lead to the US unfreezing some of the Maduro government’s funds pending a pact with the opposition to spend the money on humanitarian relief. Although the IMF sees Venezuela’s GDP growing 6% this year, it has fallen more than 80% over the past decade. More than a quarter of Venezuelans remain undernourished, according to the UN, and migrants continue to flee the country in large numbers.
Will Maduro actually make real concessions? A return to talks with the opposition probably isn’t hard for Maduro to agree to, says Grais-Targow. The bigger question is whether he’d really accept a free and fair election in 2024. Until now, the government has used all kinds of legal tricks to tilt the field in its favor, and the opposition boycotted the vote entirely in 2018.
Maduro is powerful but not necessarily popular. In regional elections earlier this year, opposition candidates did surprisingly well, even in some Maduro strongholds. In a truly free and fair vote – which the government hasn’t allowed in years – the opposition might stand a chance if it were able to unify behind a single candidate.
To underscore the point, earlier this week, after Venezuela’s opposition announced it would do just that in 2024, the president immediately announced that he might move the general election up to 2022, just to throw his opponents off balance.
All of that puts the question back in the White House’s court. How much is it willing to concede to a Venezuelan strongman who is suddenly approaching Tío Sam and the opposition from a position of relative strength? With the global energy crunch set to last for the foreseeable future, who really has whom over a barrel?
This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
The stovetop.
The tentacles of a global energy crisis
The global energy market has been volatile for months, but things got particularly dicey this week after Russia slashed natural gas supplies to Europe via the undersea Nord Stream pipeline. Moscow cut gas supplies to Germany by a whopping 60%, to Slovakia by 30%, and to Italy by 15%.
Russia’s state energy company Gazprom says the move, which sent Benchmark European gas prices soaring 24% on Wednesday, was a result of “technical issues,” but no one’s buying that excuse. Curiously, the gas shortfall came just as the French, German, Italian and Romanian heads of state touched down in Kyiv for a showy solidarity tour led by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. (They went on to announce that they will support Ukraine’s EU candidacy.)
Simply put: the Germans are very jittery. In a desperate Twitter appeal, Deputy Chancellor Robert Habeck told Germans that the situation is “serious” and called on them to conserve energy wherever possible. Indeed, as Russia doubles down on its strategy of using energy exports as a weapon of war, there’s growing fear in Brussels that European states will be unable to find natural-gas alternatives to avoid a full-blown energy crisis next winter.
However, Europeans aren’t the only ones feeling the squeeze of a tight energy market. Australia, for its part, is also facing a massive pinch due to overlapping factors, including recent floods, planned maintenance at several plants, and global price pressures squeezing coal operators (around 75% of electricity Down Under is coal-powered). Coal prices have been soaring along with other commodities as the Ukraine war rages on, prompting the government of New South Wales to urge its 8 million residents to turn off the lights between 6-8pm.
Meanwhile, emerging market economies like Sri Lanka and Pakistan are also facing severe energy crises as a result of poor governance, reliance on shady Chinese loans, supply chain chaos, and the war in Ukraine. The combination of these factors continues to fuel sky-high inflation, rolling blackouts and … much misery.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Polexit isn’t in Poland’s future; Texas bans COVID vaccine mandates
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at Polexit fears, China & India energy woes, and Texas Governor Abbott's ban on COVID vaccine mandates.
Is a "Polexit" from the EU a real possibility?
You just want to say "Polexit", right? I mean, you don't get to brand that, Poland. It's like being in the G20. You don't get to be in line. You're the 21st largest economy, at least you were when they put that together. They're annoyed about that. They're not going to leave the EU, but there is a real fight over recent judicial rulings that EU laws are not aligned with Poland. Poland supersedes. There's going to be a fight. There might be some fines. Everyone's going to be animated about it. But Poland's not going anywhere. Are some demonstrations though.
Will China and India's energy woes contribute to a worsening global energy crisis?
In the near term? Absolutely. I mean, we're moving towards renewables, but the infrastructure isn't there. Plus, we have all of these supply chain shortages given disruptions from the pandemic. And we're about to have an IMF annual meeting that is going to significantly downgrade expectations for global growth this year. And a decent part of that is increases in energy prices and shortages all over the world, China and now India facing the brunt of that. They'll do what they can to ensure that in the winter, the consumers have access because otherwise, people get real mad. But of course, that could lead to greater industry shutdowns. Again, more challenges on the global economy.
How are vaccine mandates going in the United States?
Well, it depends on what part of the United States you're in. A lot of the US, Biden of course provided support, and a lot of companies around the country are implementing them. Where they're being implemented, you see very significant amounts of vaccination, and the CEOs are generally happy about that. Of course, there's backlash. This has gotten politicized most recently in Texas, Governor Abbott saying he will not support. In fact, he'll make illegal anyone that tries to mandate a vaccine. By the way, only COVID; not other vaccines that are mandated for kids, for example, and will continue to be mandated. That's not a problem. Hasn't explained why that is. We'll see what he says. But it's good voting if you're in Texas. Talk to you all soon. Be good.