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Hell in Haiti
The Caribbean state of Haiti has been in a persistent state of pandemonium for decades. Yet, what’s happening now on the island nation of 11 million reflects a profound new wave of instability that’s threatening to spill over into neighboring countries.
Thousands of Haitians have recently taken to the streets calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, while large swaths of the capital, Port-au-Prince, are being ruled by rival gangs vying for power. Forget democracy or autocracy – lawlessness is rampant in Haiti.
Backstory. Dictatorships have long ruled over Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. For almost 30 years until 1986, François and Jean-Claude Duvalier, the autocratic father-son duo known as Papa Doc and Baby Doc, led the country with an iron fist. Since then, the country has seen several military coups and a rotating door of leaders, many of whom have mismanaged the economy and lined their own pockets. As a result, poverty and crime plague Haiti, and there’s little hope for economic growth in a country whose top export in 2020 was … knitted T-shirts.
But things deteriorated further last summer after President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in a heist-like operation, giving rise to succession disputes and a leadership vacuum that left parliament mostly empty and paved the way for gangs to consolidate power.
Why now? The latest round of anti-government protests exploded after interim PM Henry announced he would slash $400 million in fuel subsidies. Many Haitians consider Henry’s tenure illegitimate because he was neither elected nor formally confirmed by the legislature. They are also fed up with his stalling tactics, having refused to set a date for new elections that have not been held since 2016.
So how bad is this situation? "It’s catastrophic," says Haiti’s former Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive (2009-2011). “I believe Haití has never experienced such chaos even during the 2010 earthquake,” he said. That cataclysmic event resulted in more than 200,000 deaths and decimated homes and infrastructure. (Bellerive was accused of corruption during his time in office.)
The king of Port-au-Prince. Haiti has just 12,800 active police officers, who are significantly outgunned and outnumbered by gang members. Arguably, the most powerful man in Port-au-Prince is a former cop turned gangster called Barbecue (his real name is Jimmy Chérizier). Some say Chérizier earned this nickname because he’s the son of a grilled chicken street vendor; others say it’s because he has a knack for burning alive those who cross him.
Barbecue heads one of Haiti’s most powerful gangs, G9, which rules large swaths of the capital, including coastal areas where shipments of food and fuel enter the country. As a result, wealthy business people who own warehouses and industrial parks have been forced to make deals with the devil to get goods flowing into the capital.
This dynamic, whereby the rich can afford to circumvent the chaos, has fed grievances over classism and inequality, deepening social fissures that gangs have exploited to accumulate more power. What’s more, many government officials have been accused of corruption and – along with elites – reportedly strike mutually beneficial deals with gang members.
The land of scarcity. Most recently, gangs have taken control of one of the country’s largest fuel terminals, exacerbating dire food and fuel shortages. (They already control the main arteries in and out of the capital, dictating what – and who – gets in and out.) Moreover, looting of food storage units is also widespread, leading last month to the loss of at least $6 million of relief assistance, including 2,000 tons of food, according to the World Food Programme.
The situation on the ground is dire, Bellerive says. “Most of the hospitals are closed, schools are yet to reopen, and supermarkets have very short opening times.” The international airport remains open, but “getting there or out of it could be risky.”
Moreover, lack of access to clean water – a scarcity in Haiti – has given rise to a cholera outbreak in a country already traumatized by a 2010 outbreak of the disease brought by UN peacekeepers that killed roughly 10,000. Meanwhile, neighboring countries like the Dominican Republic fear it could spread to their populations.
The timing of this explosion could barely be worse. “At the international level, Haití is clearly not a top priority,” Bellerive says, adding that the message received to date by Haitians has been “grow up and solve your problems.”
“Only because of the fear of massive emigration due to the collapse of the economy and the resurgence of cholera, some attention has recently been given” by the international community.
A plea for help. With the situation spiraling out of control and little hope for a domestic solution, PM Henry this week called for foreign troops to help quell the violence.
UN Secretary General António Guterres, for his part, supports sending in international armed forces, but Haitians on the street responded with a resolute … hell, no! Many Haitians despise the UN after its mission left the country in disgrace in 2017 with its peacekeepers having spread a deadly disease and reportedly raped and impregnated scores of Haitian women and girls.
Washington is unlikely to send in troops given that American voters – Democrats and Republicans – have little appetite for foreign interventions. Indeed, after Moise’s assassination last summer, Biden reiterated that “the idea of sending American forces to Haiti is not on the agenda.” Meanwhile, many Haitians also rallied this week against US boots on the ground, repudiating solutions that are imposed from outside.
There’s no sign that things will improve anytime soon – and Bellerive’s assessment is stark: Haiti has “gone beyond the fragile state characterization to become a chaotic state.”
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A person wears a cap with images of Argentina's President Alberto Fernández and VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
What We’re Watching: Argentine VP’s legal woes, angry Haitians, Pakistan’s Qatari cash push, Trump’s DOJ suit
Is Argentina's VP on the ropes?
An Argentine prosecutor wants VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to spend 12 years behind bars and be disqualified from public office for life for alleged corruption from when her husband was president (2003-2007) and her own two terms in the top job (2007-2015). Cristina — popularly known by her first name — is accused of fixing public works contracts in the southern Patagonia region. The verdict drops in December, but it can be appealed and the process would likely drag on until late 2023 — just in time for the next election. Even if she's convicted, the influential VP is unlikely to see a jail cell. Although she won't have immunity if she loses her Senate seat, the Supreme Court is unlikely to ratify a guilty sentence that would be a political bomb. Still, the trial will have big implications for Cristina and the ruling Peronistas. First, a conviction might compel her to shape the 2023 presidential race by picking a loyal candidate and not the incumbent, Alberto Fernández (no relation), whom Cristina famously doesn't get along with. Second, the legal troubles might help Cristina fire up her base, especially if she decides to run for president. "She views all of this as a conspiracy between the judiciary, businessmen, and the opposition to remove her," says Eurasia Group analyst Luciano Sigalov.
Haitians demand PM’s resignation
Ça suffit! So say thousands of demonstrators in Port-au-Prince. Fed up with sky-high inflation, deepening poverty, and the spread of deadly gang violence, protesters are taking to the streets of Haiti’s capital to demand the resignation of PM and acting President Ariel Henry. Kidnappings and murder are on the rise — more than 200 were killed in just 10 days last month — and Haitians are increasingly worried about their mere survival. Henry has been in power since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, and many suspect that Henry was somehow behind the hit. At least one protester has reportedly died in this week’s demonstrations, and things could quickly grow worse. Some 50% of Haitians are living in poverty, struggling to keep up with inflation upwards of 30%, and saying: enough is enough.
Pakistani PM in Qatar, hat in hand
What would you do if you were staring down the barrel of default and your sworn enemy – who you’re trying to send to jail – was threatening mass unrest? Get out of Dodge, ask for money, and hope the political drama boils over before you return. That's what embattled Pakistani PM Shebhaz Sharif likely hopes to accomplish this week during his visit to Qatar. In Doha, Sharif will offer deals for Qatar to buy shares in Pakistani state-owned businesses like the national airline and — checks notes — the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City, as well as opportunities to sell Pakistan more energy. More importantly, Sharif's trip comes ahead of next week's big meeting to secure a $1.2 billion IMF bailout negotiated in 2019 by ... his predecessor Imran Khan, Sharif's other big headache. Khan, who was ousted in an April no-confidence vote, has been charged with violating the anti-terror act for threatening the judiciary in a fiery speech. The former PM has been summoned to appear before the court to answer the charge on Aug. 31, and Khan's supporters have responded by surrounding his residence to thwart his potential arrest. If the former cricket star is convicted, he faces a prison term and lifetime disqualification from politics.
Trump sues DOJ over Mar-a-Lago search
Donald Trump is suing the Justice Department in a bid to stop the FBI from looking over documents taken from the former US president’s Mar-a-Lago home earlier this month. The materials were recovered as part of an investigation into whether Trump mishandled them — but he says he’s done nothing wrong and that the documents were declassified. The lawsuit requests that an independent lawyer review the documents to see whether any are protected by executive privilege. Since Trump is a likely presidential candidate for 2024, the suit warns that law enforcement “cannot be used as a weapon for political purposes." DOJ officials say that the search warrant was authorized by a federal court “upon the required finding of probable cause,” and they’ll get their chance to address the lawsuit in court. Meanwhile, the judge who approved the search warrant is still deciding whether to allow the evidence presented as justification for the search to go public.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron. February 8, 2022.
Macron in Kyiv, Philippine vote, Haiti assassination probe
Macron does the rounds. French President Emmanuel Macron is on a diplomatic tour to find a solution to the Ukraine crisis. On Monday, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two chatted for five hours, with Macron reporting he had “secured an assurance there would be no deterioration or escalation.” But Russia later said Macron’s version was “not right,” and pushed back against reports that Putin had agreed to withdraw troops from Belarus. Was Putin lashing out because Macron left the Kremlin to fly to Kyiv where he reaffirmed Europe's commitment to Ukraine? Either way, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who’s set to meet with Putin in Moscow on Feb. 15, will be taking note. Tellingly, Macron appeared less sanguine in Kyiv, saying the stalemate could continue for months.
Will the Marcos family rise again? Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., son of the late dictator, is the frontrunner to succeed outgoing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Marcos, alongside VP running mate Sara Duterte — whose father is ineligible to run due to term limits — is polling well ahead of his rivals. Marcos has a massive social media presence, but he remains a polarizing figure due to his dad's legacy of kleptocracy and martial law. He recently beat a disqualification petition against him over an old tax conviction, but several more are pending. While the cases make their way through the courts, expect a campaign dominated by personalities and political dynasties in a country where name recognition is the only game in town. The official race kicked off this week, and the election will be held on May 9.
Haiti assassination plot thickens. Haitian President Jovenel Moïse was killed at his home in Port-au-Prince last summer, and former Colombian military personnel arrested in connection with his assassination have claimed they were set up. But now a bombshell CNN report says Prime Minister Ariel Henry, a doctor who has served as interim leader since Moïse’s murder, was involved in the plot and has tried to thwart the murder investigation. What’s more, Henry, who heads large swaths of the justice department, has been accused of firing prosecutors and judges who sought potential charges against him. While some observers have criticized the US for not pressuring Henry to step down, American officials are likely wary of anything that could lead to more upheaval.What We're Watching: Turmoil in Kazakhstan, Macron targets anti-vaxxers, Haiti presidential murder probe
Kazakh political turmoil. “Dozens” of anti-government protesters have been killed by security forces in Kazakhstan, which has declared a state of emergency over the worst political crisis in a decade. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sacked the entire government in response to widespread street protests, which started days ago over a planned fuel price hike. Since then, the demonstrations have morphed into wider outrage against an entrenched regime, in power since the Central Asian republic broke away from the USSR in 1991. Things are escalating rapidly in Almaty, the business capital, where demonstrators have reportedly set the presidential palace on fire. Tokayev — who took over in 2019 as the handpicked successor of former strongman Nursultan Nazarbayev — now says he may assume wider powers to end the crisis and asked Russia to send in “peacekeepers” under the umbrella of the CSTO, a Moscow-led grouping of former Soviet Republics. Vladimir Putin, always wary of popular uprisings in the Kremlin’s sphere of influence, is one of the two world leaders closely watching developments in Kazakhstan along with Xi Jinping, given that China is thirsty for Kazakh oil, gas, and minerals.
Macron wants to make the unvaccinated miserable. French President Emmanuel Macron is in hot water after saying he wants to make life difficult for unvaccinated people (he used the French word emmerder, which translates to “piss off” or “hassle.”) The unrefined comment comes as omicron cases are surging in France, while hospitalizations are also steadily rising. As the public health situation deteriorates — and the collective appetite for lockdowns wanes — the French parliament is set to pass a bill that would tighten requirements for the health pass system, so that proof of a negative test will no longer be enough to enter public places like restaurants, bars, and museums. While France has a solid vaccination rate — 73 percent of the population is fully vaxxed — a very vocal vaccine-hesitant constituency has rallied against government containment measures. Naturally, Macron’s political opponents used the unfolding scandal to smear the president just three months out from a tighter-than-expected presidential election: far-right hopeful Marine Le Pen accused the incumbent of “continuing his policy of division.” It’s unclear if this mini-scandal will have real political implications, but Macron — who in the past has been accused of being an aloof elitist detached from real people — can hardly afford another misstep as he tries to maintain a steady lead in the polls.
US charges suspect in killing of Haitian president. Six months after Haiti's President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in his bed in the middle of the night, the first suspect has been arrested by US officials and charged in an American court. Mario Antonio Palacios, a former Colombian soldier, was arrested in Jamaica and flown to Panama, from where he was extradited to the US. (America has jurisdiction over the proceedings because Haiti says the operation was largely planned and financed in Florida.) Indeed, the FBI has been helping Haitian authorities — who lack resources and institutional backing — to investigate the attack, which has plunged the Caribbean country further into chaos and lawlessness. If convicted, Palacios could face a life sentence. But operatives involved in the plot — many of whom are former Colombian military — say they were deceived by a Florida-based security company, which originally trained them to kidnap the former president, not kill him. At least 18 Colombians believed to be involved in the magnicide remain in prison in Port-au-Prince, as well as dozens of Haitians, including a US physician of Haitian origin believed to be the mastermind of the entire plot to take out Moïse.Anti Polexit banner is seen during 'We're staying in EU' demonstration at the Main Square in Krakow, Poland on October 10, 2021.
What We're Watching: EU-Poland judicial fight, Turkey joins Haiti prez murder probe, Pfizer’s COVID pill deal
EU vs Poland (yes, again). The EU's top court on Tuesday ruled that Poland's recent judicial reforms, which give the government leeway to appoint sympathetic justices, violate EU rule-of-law norms. Warsaw claims that its own constitutional court has already decided that Polish law supersedes EU law, so the stalemate continues. The EU and Poland have been fighting over this issue for years, but Brussels has recently begun showing its frustration with Poland — and Hungary too — over these issues. While the "illiberal" governments of both countries are popular, the EU also knows that most Hungarians and Poles want to stay in the 27-member union, and Brussels' ability to delay badly-needed EU pandemic relief money is a strong point of leverage. Defying Brussels is already starting to get expensive for Warsaw — in a separate judicial dispute, the EU is fining Poland 1 million euros ($1.1 million) per day until it abides by the bloc's rule-of-law norms.
Haiti's presidential assassination investigation goes global. Turkey has arrested a Haitian businessman of Jordanian origin allegedly connected to the plot to kill Haiti's President Jovenel Moïse last July. The suspect — detained in Istanbul en route to Jordan from the US — has been linked to a Florida-based doctor with Haitian roots who reportedly wanted to return to Haiti and assume the presidency after Moïse's death. More than 40 suspects have been arrested so far, including several Haitian security personnel and Colombian mercenaries. Although we still don't know who ordered the hit, the most plausible theory is that wealthy Haitians living abroad hired professionals to do the job. Meanwhile, Haiti itself remains mired in the political chaos that followed Moïse's assassination. With a weak government, gangsters like the notorious Monsieur Barbecue, Haiti's most powerful mobster, are now running the show in the chronically unstable Caribbean nation.
Pfizer's COVID pill plans. US drug manufacturer Pfizer will allow its experimental COVID treatment pill to be produced and sold in 95 developing nations that are home to more than half of the world's population. The deal is part of a UN-backed, for-profit consortium. Pfizer says that as long as COVID remains a WHO-designated public health emergency, it won't charge royalties for the pill, which clinical trials show reduces the risk of COVID hospitalization or death by 89 percent. While the treatment is still good news, inequality in access to COVID vaccines and treatments persists, with numerous issues outstanding — from pharma patent issues, to global production supply deals, to local drug production capacity. Still, having cheaper access to effective treatment is a big deal for the countries on Pfizer's list, most of which have very low vaccination rates and weak healthcare capacity.Why is Haiti such a disaster?
No country in the Western Hemisphere is more closely associated with disaster and misery than the Caribbean nation of Haiti. Its latest upheaval centers on news that the country's top prosecutor wants Haiti's prime minister to answer questions about the murder of the president in July. Haiti is again locked in a power struggle among competing factions within its ruling elite.
Why is Haiti still so poor and disaster-prone?
Look to its history. After a bloody and destructive 13-year fight, Haiti, then called Saint-Domingue, won independence from France in 1804. This was the first successful slave rebellion in the modern world, and that accomplishment unnerved leaders in Europe and the newly created United States, who feared slave uprisings in their own countries.
As a result, a land that had once supplied colonial master France with enough sugar, coffee, cocoa, tobacco, cotton, and indigo dye for sale across Europe to constitute half of France's gross national product was then faced with an international economic boycott.
The resulting economic crisis forced the new nation's leaders to accept French demands for payment of some $21 billion in reparations for lost colonial property. The Haitian government had little choice but to pay, and it borrowed heavily from French, German, and American banks to finance the debt.
Fears that Haiti would default led the newly expansive United States to respond to political upheaval in 1915 by sending in Marines. This began an occupation of the country that lasted until 1934. Washington kept control of Haiti's finances until the debt was fully repaid in 1947.
During the Cold War, the United States guarded against Communist influence in Haiti, which became an even higher priority after the revolution in neighboring Cuba brought Fidel Castro to power in 1959, by supporting the dictatorship of François, and then Jean-Claude, Duvalier from 1957-1986. The anti-Communist father and son killed tens of thousands of Haitians and stole hundreds of millions of dollars.
For decades, elites backed by outsiders controlled most of Haiti's productive land and stole much of the aid money sent to alleviate poverty and help the country recover from disasters.
And there are plenty of disasters to recover from, because Haiti, caught between North American and Caribbean tectonic plates, is prone to earthquakes. In 2010, a large quake killed 220,000 people and displaced 1.5 million.
The island of Hispaniola, which Haiti shares with the Dominican Republic, is also situated in "hurricane alley," an area of warm Caribbean water that forms an ideal path for deadly hurricanes.
Haiti is far more vulnerable to natural disasters than the DR and other of its neighbors because crippling debt and political corruption have left little money for investment in the kind of physical infrastructure that can withstand those disasters or for the government to spend to rebuild.
Haitian politics is mostly a fight to control access to money entering the country and the land that produces wealth via agricultural exports. Haiti doesn't have revolutions; it has coups. Reformers who threaten vested interests become targets for deadly violence.
Not surprisingly, a number of academic studies over the years have found that "brain drain," the exodus of the nation's best and brightest to other countries in search of better opportunities, has further stunted Haiti's development.
It's the accumulation of all these problems that leaves Haiti, now home to 11 million people, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere and a land in perpetual crisis. And there's little public support in other countries for the large-scale investment — and the commitment of troops needed to protect it — that Haiti would need for decades to come.
For now, Haiti's turmoil continues.
People watch a TV broadcasting file footage of a news report on North Korea firing what appeared to be a pair of ballistic missiles off its east coast, in Seoul, South Korea, September 15, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Korea vs Korea, Taliban vs Taliban, Haitian PM vs top prosecutor
North and South Korea trade barbs and missile tests: Just hours after North Korea fired two ballistic missiles into the sea on Wednesday, the South responded by conducting its own first successful test of a submarine-launched ballistic projectile, with South Korea's President Moon Jae-in boasting that it would deter the North's "provocations." Then Kim Yo Jong, the fiery sister of North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, responded to the South's response by threatening to cut all bilateral ties. Although bombastic statements by the Kims are nothing new, things are heating up. With US-led denuclearization talks stalled, Pyongyang carried out its first weapons test in six months a few days ago. Kim may be upping the ante deliberately right now, betting that after the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Joe Biden is keen to avoid another foreign policy embarrassment on his watch. Maybe this time Joe will pick up the phone?
Taliban infighting: Barely a week after forming a government, senior Taliban leaders are fighting again... with each other. On Tuesday, deputy PM Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who led the group's peace negotiations in Doha and considered conciliatory (by Taliban standards), had a shouting match with the battle-hardened refugees minister over whether diplomats or insurgents should get most of the credit for the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Supporters of both sides then brawled in Kabul's presidential palace, where officials now show up to work fully armed, before cooler heads prevailed. The Taliban, for their part, deny there was any argument at all, but it's hard to believe a group that in 2015 admitted covering up the death of its own leader for two years. The Taliban's spiritual leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, could put an end to the bickering, but he has yet to be seen in public despite technically having the final say on all political, military and religious affairs in Taliban-run Afghanistan.
Haitian PM cans prosecutor: The Haitian special prosecutor investigating the July assassination of President Jovenel Moïse made an astounding accusation earlier this week: current PM Ariel Henry was involved in the crime. In response, Henry announced that he had "the pleasure" of firing the investigator, allegedly for administrative errors. The move, which may be unconstitutional — because only presidents have the power to hire or fire prosecutors — deepens the acute political crisis that has gripped Haiti since Moïse's killing. Henry, who took power amid confusion about the proper succession to Moïse, brokered an agreement last weekend among the country's warring political forces to form a transitional government until a fresh election and constitutional referendum can be held early next year. But sacking the prosecutor may shake things up again. Complicating things further, Haiti is still reeling from last month's earthquake, which killed hundreds and thrust a gangster kingpin named "Barbecue" into the spotlight as a more reliable source of relief than the government itself.
Ben Rhodes: the US should build a coalition to help Haiti’s political turmoil
Haiti is not only grappling with political unrest following the president's assassination — the Caribbean nation also needs COVID vaccines, and is eager to curb gang violence. What should the US do? Former National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes wants America to lead a coalition of nations from the Western Hemisphere that'll "address some of the basic needs" in crisis-plagued Haiti. Watch his interview with Ian Bremmer on the upcoming episode of GZERO World. Check local listings for US public television.
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