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A ragpicker searches for garbage as he walks through railway tracks on a smoggy morning in New Delhi, India on November 4, 2023.
Hard Numbers: India’s capital struggles to breathe, Honduran villages cut off, Greece puts a dent in its debt, Tiger King begs Trump for job
1,700: At least 1,700 communities in Honduras have been isolated by flooding caused by Tropical Storm Sara, which dumped nearly 20 inches of water over four days in the north of the country. At least nine bridges were destroyed and 19 more damaged, complicating efforts to reach the affected communities.
5 billion: Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said his government plans to pay down at least $5.3 billion dollars in debt in 2025, well ahead of schedule, thanks to strict fiscal discipline. Greece still has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the Eurozone, but has markedly improved since the country’s debt crisis a decade ago.
21: Joseph Maldonado-Passage — much better known as “Joe Exotic” from the bizarre 2020 Netflix hit documentary “Tiger King” — asked President-elect Donald Trump to pardon him from his 21-year prison sentence for attempting to arrange the murder of his tiger rival Carole Baskin. (It’s a hell of a doc). That’s not all: the feline enthusiast also wants to join Trump’s cabinet as the director of the US Fish and Wildlife service.
Honduras' President Xiomara Castro delivers a speech during a ceremony to commemorate the National Flag Day, in Tegucigalpa, Honduras September 1, 2024.
Honduras rocked by presidential drug scandal
Honduran President Xiomara Castro faced calls to resign on Wednesday after journalists released a video of her brother-in-law negotiating payoffs with convicted drug traffickers. The man in the video, Carlos Zelaya, denied he knew he was taking drug money, but he and his son both resigned from their government positions after the revelation. Carlos’ brother, Manuel “Mel” Zelaya, is Castro’s husband and was president himself before being overthrown in a coup in 2009.
Just before the video broke, Honduras withdrew from its extradition treaty with the United States — not a coincidence. Dozens of accused Honduran drug traffickers have been extradited to face trial and imprisonment in the US, including Castro’s immediate predecessor, Juan Orlando Hernández,whom she accused of running a “narco-dictatorship.” How the tables have turned!
Eurasia Group regional expert Risa Grais-Targow says there’s more to it than simple self-preservation. Castro’s Honduras has been moving further away from the US, for example, by dropping its recognition of Taiwan in favor of the People’s Republic of China, and immediately siding with Venezuelan strongman president Nicolás Maduro in the aftermath of that country’s deeply controversial election.
“All of this pushes Honduras further into that club of countries — Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia — that has a much more contentious relationship with the US than other Latin American countries,” Grais-Targow explained.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during a Conservative general election campaign event, in London, Britain June 24, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Sunak shows up, Indonesia busts cyber racket, US sentences drug-trafficking ally, West Africa puts a price on security
50-50: British PM Rishi Sunak may be on the ropes these days — his polling numbers are in the gutter, his party is engulfed in a betting scandal, and he even got roasted by Menswear guy. But in his debate against Labour leader Keir Starmer this week, he managed to perform well enough (hammering Starmer for having no real plan for “change”) that straw polls showed a 50-50 tie. Still, with Labour ahead by double digits going into the July 4 election, Sunak’s days are numbered.
103: Indonesian authorities arrested 103 foreign nationals suspected of being part of a cybercrime syndicate on the island of Bali. The suspects – who included citizens of Taiwan, China, and Malaysia – had reportedly been abusing their residence permits as well. Indonesia’s rapidly growing e-commerce and tech scene has made the nation particularly vulnerable to cybercrime: It ranks eighth among Asia-Pacific nations when it comes to cyber security.
45: A US judge has sentenced the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, to a whopping 45 years in jail on drug trafficking charges. Hernández, 55, was convicted of accepting millions in bribes to conceal cocaine shipments to the US during his time as president from 2014 to 2022. The irony? He was publicly working with Washington in the War on Drugs.
2.6 billion: What’s it gonna cost to protect West Africa from terrorism and coups? $2.6 billion a year, according to ECOWAS, a regional bloc. Meeting in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, the organization said it would need a 5,000-strong force to help keep order in a part of Africa that is suffering rising jihadist violence which has contributed to a rash of coups.
Viewpoint: As an angry China looms, Taiwan’s president seeks support in the Americas
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen will travel to the US, Guatemala, and Belize from March 29 to April 7 against a backdrop of deepening tensions with China, which regards Taiwan as a breakaway province. In the US, Tsai is expected to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and in Guatemala and Belize she aims to shore up relations with two of the last 13 countries in the world that recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty. We asked experts at Eurasia Group to explain the motivations behind Tsai’s visit.
Why is Tsai making this trip now?
Anna Ashton, China team: McCarthy had said he wanted to visit Taiwan when he became speaker, like his predecessor Nancy Pelosi did. Once he gained the speaker’s gavel in January, Tsai appears to have decided to go and see McCarthy instead and use the trip as an opportunity to see Taiwan’s supporters in Central America as well. Belize Prime Minister Johnny Briceno traveled to Taipei in 2021, and Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei had invited Tsai to visit his country. The timing of Tsai’s effort to bolster support in the region is fortuitous given Honduras’s announcement on March 25 that it was switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.
The framing of the issue of recognition as a binary choice originated in the aftermath of China’s civil war, when both the Chinese Communist Party on the mainland and the Chiang Kai-shek-led government in Taiwan claimed to be the only legitimate rulers of China. Beijing steadily made headway winning recognition away from Taipei, and in 1971, the UN General Assembly switched recognition to Beijing. Using a combination of political pressure and economic incentives, China has been peeling off other Taiwan supporters ever since.
How big of a deal is Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy?
Anna: Tsai will stop in Los Angeles to see McCarthy at the end of her trip (and will make another stop in New York at the beginning). As the third in line for the US presidency, McCarthy will be the most senior US official to meet with a sitting Taiwan president on US soil. Beijing has bristled historically at Taiwan presidents visiting the US in any capacity. In the mid-1990s, then-President Lee Teng-hui’s trip to give a speech at Cornell University, his alma mater, prompted the Chinese to fire a barrage of missiles into the waters of the Taiwan Strait and the US to send a large fleet to the area in response. Tsai has made previous stops in the US during her time in office, but McCarthy’s official reception will amplify the diplomatic significance of her upcoming stop in California, where she will also reportedly give remarks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
Why did McCarthy opt to see her there and not go to Taiwan like Pelosi did?
Anna: Prior to Pelosi’s Aug. 2022 trip, there had not been a visit by a sitting House speaker since Newt Gingrich stopped in Taiwan in 1997 as part of a broader itinerary focused on mainland China. After assuming the role of speaker early this year, McCarthy reportedly began planning for a spring visit to Taiwan. But Tsai’s administration is said to have urged McCarthy to accept a visit from Tsai instead. Beijing responded to Pelosi’s trip with live-fire military exercises in the strait and more aggressive incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone ever since. Ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election in January 2024, Tsai was wary of an even more forceful reaction if McCarthy came. Though not running for reelection, she wants to position her party as able to protect Taiwan’s de facto independence without overly provoking Beijing.
Clayton Allen, US politics team: McCarthy likely opted to go along with the Tsai administration’s request because US policymakers are more cognizant of the role their actions may play in intensifying tensions with China. Amid clashes with China over concerns it could provide military assistance to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, a visit to Taiwan by McCarthy now could provoke an even more aggressive reaction than that of Pelosi. An in-person meeting with Tsai in Los Angeles will still allow McCarthy to demonstrate his tough-on-China bona fides.
How might China respond to her meeting with McCarthy?
Anna: It will likely be angry, but there is little question that Los Angeles is a less provocative venue than Taipei. Any show of military force in response is likely to, at most, mirror activities undertaken in the wake of Pelosi’s visit.
How will Tsai's visit play into US domestic politics on China?
Clayton: Anti-China sentiment is at an all-time high among US voters, and policymakers are competing to show who is more hawkish toward Beijing. McCarthy, a Republican, is under pressure to demonstrate he is at least as aggressive as Pelosi, his Democratic predecessor. A meeting in California is less useful to that goal than a trip to Taipei, but the optics of meeting directly with Tsai will go quite a way to putting him on equal ground with his predecessor.
Longer term, McCarthy’s meeting with Tsai indicates that congressional support for Taiwan is unlikely to abate, and efforts to expand military cooperation will remain popular. President Joe Biden’s administration, meanwhile, is likely to prioritize efforts to stabilize a steadily deteriorating US-China relationship over near-term political benefit; no White House officials have plans to meet with Tsai while she is in the US.
How might Honduras's recent decision to switch recognition to China affect the Central America leg of Tsai’s trip?
Yael Sternberg, Latin America team: It ups the pressure. Honduras’ decision reflects a combination of economic and political motives. The country reportedly has been seeking a $2 billion loan from Beijing. While Chinese officials reportedly haven’t announced specific investment or financing commitments, they have indicated a willingness to increase their imports of Honduran products. Meanwhile, the country’s relations with the US have been deteriorating, thwarting Washington’s attempts to keep Honduras on Taiwan’s side.
China is sure to redouble its effort to woo Taiwan’s remaining Central American supporters, though Guatemala and Belize have shown no signs of wavering. Guatemala has a presidential election coming up in May, and whoever wins is likely to broadly maintain the same policies as the current administration.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.
Comparative maps showing which countries had official diplomatic ties with Taiwan just before the UN recognized the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1971 to today.
The Graphic Truth: Taiwan's shrinking recognition
Honduras announced this week that it’ll sever official diplomatic ties with Taiwan and instead recognize China. This would bring the number of countries with formal ties to the self-ruled island down to 13, with only two Central American allies (Belize and Guatemala) remaining. China, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province, has been playing tug-of-war with Taipei for influence in Latin America for years. We look at which countries had official diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1971, just before the UN switched recognition of China’s government to the People’s Republic, compared to today.
What We’re Watching: West dents Russian gas leverage, Honduran president sworn in, Portuguese vote
Nord Stream 2 used as a bargaining chip with Russia. The US now says that if Russia invades Ukraine, it’ll block the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is set to transfer even more natural gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. This is a big deal, considering that Germany – thirsty for more Russian gas – has long been pushing for the pipeline to start operating despite ongoing objections from Washington. The $11 billion energy project, which would double Russian gas exports to Germany, is seen as (a big) part of the reason why Berlin is reluctant to push back hard against the Kremlin over its troop buildup at the Ukrainian border. Still, German officials admit Nord Stream 2 could face sanctions if the Russians invade, suggesting that the Americans’ threat was likely coordinated with Berlin in advance. This comes amid ongoing diplomatic attempts to de-escalate the Ukraine crisis, with US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set to meet at the White House on February 7.
Castro’s challenges in Honduras. Honduras on Thursday inaugurated its first female president. Xiomaro Castro is a 62-year-old democratic socialist and wife of former president José Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in a military coup in 2009. But she assumes office in the middle of a dispute within her own party over congressional roles that could make it hard for her to pass legislation. Several international heavyweights flew in for the ceremony in one of Central America’s poorest countries. US Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s been charged with the very daunting task of addressing the root causes of migration to the US from the Northern Triangle, attended as a sign of solidarity. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai also flew into Tegucigalpa to shore up Taiwanese support for Honduras as it tries to challenge Beijing’s expanding influence across Latin America. (Castro previously said that she might cut off ties with Taipei to bolster economic cooperation with Beijing.)
Portuguese vote. Portugal goes to the polls on Sunday, more than three months after the president was forced to call a snap election over failure to pass the 2022 budget. The ruling center-left Socialist Party of PM António Costa is now slightly ahead in the polls of the Social Democrats, the main opposition center-right party. Meanwhile, the far-right Chega party could become the third-largest parliamentary force after benefiting from some Portuguese blaming leftist parties for forcing an election amid the pandemic. Costa has made it easy for Portuguese to vote early to avoid crowds amid the omicron wave, but turnout is still expected to be low. Whatever the outcome, it's unlikely either of the two main parties will win a majority of seats. This means one of them will need to abstain for the other to take power, or call a second election. That would be very bad news for Portugal, which has so far been one of the EU's most politically stable countries and one of the bloc's economic success stories since the euro and sovereign debt crisis almost a decade ago.
A vote for change in Honduras. Will they get it?
The small Central American nation of Honduras is in many ways a full blown narco-state. President Juan Orlando Hernandez – who’s governed the country for close to a decade – has been linked to the country’s booming drug trafficking trade. His brother Tony, a former congressman who is buds with Mexican drug lord El-Chapo, was sentenced to life-in prison this year for smuggling cocaine into the US. Narco-trafficking gangs run riot in the country, fueling one of the world’s highest murder rates, while corruption and poverty abound.
In a sign of the hunger for change, Hondurans have overwhelmingly selected an avowed socialist to be the next president, rather than see the conservative Hernandez’s preferred successor take power. It’s a big moment for a country in crisis. What happens now?
First, who’s won? With most of the votes counted, Xiomara Castro of the leftist Libre party currently holds a whopping 20-point lead over Nasry Asfura of Hernandez’s ruling National Party. That means Castro is now all but certain to become Honduras' first female president. She is in fact no stranger to Honduran politics: her husband José Manuel Zelaya served as president for three years until he was ousted in a military coup in 2009.
Hernandez and his cronies won’t be missed by many Hondurans whose lives are plagued by poverty and gang violence while the political elite gets rich off drug money. In Honduras, one of Central America’s poorest countries, lack of economic opportunity and high murder rates continue to drive high levels of emigration, most notably during the pandemic. The emigration rate from Honduras has increased 530 percent over the past three decades.
Will this development change things? In many ways Castro’s win is a triumph for democracy. The elections appear to have been free and fair, a stark contrast to the post-election violence that resulted after claims of election fraud in 2017.
The 62-year old Castro, who represents a coalition of opposition parties, has said she wants to open dialogue with all sectors of Honduran society to bridge the country’s deep divides. She has positioned herself as a change candidate, vowing to root out graft by establishing a UN-backed anti-corruption commission and to reduce poverty. And although her policy details are scarce, her message has resonated with a deeply disillusioned Honduran electorate that feels it has everything to lose by keeping the ruling Nationals in power.
However, Castro’s wings might be clipped by Congress, if the Nationals and its political allies hold solid ground in the 128-seat chamber.
Who’s watching? The United States, for starters. The Biden administration has made combating corruption a key part of its broader Central America policy, which aims to stabilize the region in order to reduce northward migration. And Honduras is a key piece of this: during the surge in illegal border crossings over the past year, Hondurans were second only to Mexicans among nationalities stopped at the border.
Castro, for her part, says she wants to maintain solid ties with the US, though it is unclear whether Washington and Tegucigalpa, the Honduran capital, will find common ground on a range of issues including relations with China, migration, and security.
Mexico also has a keen interest in seeing a more stable Honduras. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has come under strong pressure – first from Trump, now from Biden – to stop migration flows at his own borders.
Looking ahead. Castro’s job will be to turn stump speech rhetoric into meaningful change that people can feel. Hondurans are desperate for change. The neighbors are watching closely. Can she deliver?
The Graphic Truth: Who's arriving at the US-Mex border
Despite a recent dip, migrant arrivals at the US-Mexico border have surged over the past 10 months, driven by economic hardship, violence, and the perception that President Biden would be more welcoming to migrants than his predecessor. Most of those coming to the US from the South hail from Mexico, but a large number have also fled violence and poverty in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. We take a look at migration patterns from Central America in 2021 compared to 2020.