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Canada's fight with India over Sikh assassination heats up again
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is the role of the United Nations in the Israel-Gaza war?
Well, it's actually quite a few roles. One, the General Assembly and the Security Council are principle places where you get to see how the various countries around the world respond to the war, what their political positioning is, so the comparative isolation of the United States on the Security Council, for example, what countries do, don't stand with Israel, the Palestinians of the 194 member states around the world? Secondly, the UN is the principal organization that delivers humanitarian aid on the ground in Gaza, staffed overwhelmingly by Palestinians, thousands of them. That's been controversial because a number, something like seven or eight, have been found to have been involved in the support for the attacks on October 7th, the terrorist attacks. And then, finally, you have UN peacekeepers, thousands of them, on the ground in southern Lebanon, with many countries around the world participating. That's the Security Council that's responsible for that but has not been particularly effective at ensuring that the Security Council resolutions, creating a buffer zone, pushing Hezbollah back, and not allowing them to strike Israel, have actually been implemented. So lots of places that they have a role, you learn a lot about the world as a consequence, but it's not like they have a lot of power or a lot of money.
Why did Canada expel Indian diplomats?
Well, it's a fight that's been going on for over a year now with the assassination of this Sikh terrorist that India was found to be behind on sovereign Canadian territory. There had been a conversation between Modi and Trudeau on the sidelines of recent G20 Summit. It looked like facilitated by the United States, that that relationship was improving. It has fallen apart again. One of the things, I mean, there's more information that's come out in Canada about what India's role has been interfering with Canadian politics and citizens, but also the fact that Trudeau is in really tough shape domestically. He's thinking that a fight with India right now may help him in terms of popularity. I don't think it's going to work, but that certainly is not irrelevant.
How important is Elon Musk in the US election?
I don't think he's very important to the outcome. Obviously, Twitter/X is significantly oriented towards the right in terms of both Elon and what's being algorithmically promoted, but it's a lot smaller for US citizens than TikTok, which is younger and is more focused to the extent there's a political slant on the left. So if you ask me, which is going to matter more? I suspect TikTok will bring out more voters than Twitter/X, will. I think you on, is important in the election because he has personally done so much to promote disinformation, and it's making it harder for the average American to know what they can trust, what's a trusted source of media, what's a trusted source of information, what they should believe around vaccines, around FEMA response to a hurricane, around whether or not the election is free and fair. And I'm worried deeply that there's much greater likelihood of violence in the United States on the back of his personal decision of how to run Twitter/X than there would've been otherwise. We'll be focused on this very closely.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and Congress Parliamentary Party Chairperson Sonia Gandhi
Memo shows Modi government planned ‘crackdown’
The memo, which India says is not real, did not direct consular officials to carry out assassinations, but it does show the government of Narendra Modi was urging “concrete measures” be taken by officials “to hold the suspects accountable.” It also includes a list of Sikh dissidents under investigation – and Canadian activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar is on it.
He was gunned down outside his gurdwara, a Sikh place of worship, in Surrey, British Columbia, on June 18.
The memo instructs officials at its consulates to cooperate with Indian intelligence agencies to act against Sikh activists. A US indictment unsealed last month linked murder plots in both Canada and the United States to an unnamed Indian government official.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in September that Canadian intelligence officials suspected India was behind Nijjar’s murder, prompting furious denials from Modi’s government. On Tuesday, Trudeau said that he decided to publicly reveal Canada’s suspicions “to put a chill” on relations between the two countries after India failed to cooperate. Canada "needed a further level of deterrence, perhaps of saying publicly and loudly that we know, or we have credible reasons to believe, that the Indian government was behind this,” he explained.
In response to Trudeau’s September allegation, India angrily expelled 41 Canadian diplomats, but after the Americans unsealed the indictment linking India to the murder plots, India announced it would investigate the matter. FBI director Christopher Wray is in India this week to try to take “a step towards deepening cooperation.”
The Americans are said to be hoping that India will renounce the practice of carrying out assassinations in friendly countries.