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Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Possibly. They will make it harder, a lot harder for the Russians to take or advance on Kharkiv further, which is the second largest city in Ukraine, millions of people near the front lines. And if the Russians were to take it or destroy it, level it, you'd have millions of refugees that would be streaming out and into neighboring countries. Not something anyone in NATO wants to see. That is what is less likely to happen, because the Ukrainians can now hit Russian targeting outside of Ukraine.
How might India's trajectory evolve if Modi secures a third term in office?
Looks certainly very likely he's going to get a third term. That's what we've been thinking all the way through. And another five years means strong economic policymaking. Consistency from a Modi who has wanted to make India more investable, a Modi that has wanted to make India more attractive to partners, multinational corporations, financial institutions all over the world. Having said all of that, he has been much more pro-business than pro-competition. And that, of course, makes ultimately India less attractive as a market participant and certainly for a lot of companies, as India grows than it might otherwise be. Still, you're talking about the fifth largest economy in the world on track to becoming the third, growing at 7-8% a year, from a very low base for the next decade. Modi's leadership in India certainly makes you want to bet more on India, not less.
What is the likelihood that Israel and Hamas will agree to Biden's proposed cease-fire deal?
On balance, I still think it's pretty low, in part because the Israelis are not prepared to accept a shift to a permanent cease-fire until Hamas is destroyed. It's not just about Hamas not being able to engage in an October 7th attack again, as Biden has suggested. And that is an arrangement that Hamas is much less willing to sign on to. So, right now, at least, it seems the overlap between the interests of the two combatants, is not yet at a place where we can see a deal.
Modi set to win big in India's elections as economy booms
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here wrapping up my week in Mumbai, India.
And a lot is going on. But I'll give you a Quick Take given that it is the middle of the election season. So that is what everyone is talking about. Prime Minister Modi, coming out publicly saying that he thinks he's going to get over 400 seats, which would be a supermajority. That'd be incredible. It's also not going to happen, saying that to get people excited. In reality, it's going to be a lot closer. But it does look pretty clear that he is going to win. And that he is going to have roughly the number of seats he had last time around. Why? Because he is one of the most popular leaders in any major democracy in the world today, consistently 60-65% approval ratings.
Think about Europeans or Americans or Japanese or Latin Americans and how they would feel about those approval ratings. Why? Well, in part because India's growing, because the economy is at a sort of significant cliff. And they're investing in infrastructure, literacy rates are improving. Globalization is happening. It's still a very poor country. It's a poor country that is getting wealthier. And since the last time here, you can definitely see it. A lot of the new bridges and tunnels that are being built and buildings that are coming up, and also systems and services that are better. You know, I'm not seeing the same level of rolling blackouts, for example, or data outages that you saw before. And the people that are running corporations tell me that they don't need the same level of redundancy, (well, they still need redundancy), than they did 5 or 10 years ago. Quality of manufacturing is going up. More people are able to build things that really matter for global production, both in terms of componentry, also in terms of even in some cases, finished products like automotive and motorcycles. So it is an exciting story at home here in India.
It's also an exciting story internationally because India, of course, is one of the few countries that is trying to build a global model of leadership itself that isn't seen as at the expense of other countries. It's not really an India-first foreign policy. It's more India that wants to be seen as a leader of the Global South, but also a bridge with the major advanced industrial democracies assertively trying to act like a friend to the rest of the world, though there are exceptions there.
One exception is Canada, where you saw the assassination of a Canadian citizen, Sikh, who was involved in supposedly terrorism. But this caused a big flap between those two countries. Still hasn't been patched over. Not the strategically most important relationship, but not something you want to see. Also, right here in India, the immediate backdrop is kind of problematic. The China relationship is a little more stable, kind of reopening, you know, sort of getting some visas going and getting some flights moving. But still, it is a relationship with a contested border and not a lot of foreign direct investment, a fair amount of hostility still between these countries. Pakistan, also border challenging. Myanmar border, you've got a potential coup that's going on really challenging. So if you're India in your immediate environment, you know, actually feels very, very other than stable, it feels pretty hostile.
It feels like a part of the world that you need to spend a lot more money on defense. You need to build up your capabilities. It's one of the reasons why the relationship with the United States has improved. It's one of the reasons the Indians are looking to be a part of the Quad, trying to be a part of the new US-led regional architecture that is popping up in Asia.
But at the end of the day, if India is successful, they have to work with pretty much everybody. And that is something that I think motivates and excites a lot of Indians going into the polls for the last few weeks and going forward.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all when I get back to States.
Bharatiya Janata Party supporters hold party flags while waiting for Narendra Modi's road show during an election campaign in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 16, 2024.
Viewpoint: India gears up for biggest elections ever
The world’s most populous country will hold elections between April 19 and 1 June for its lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha. The 543-member chamber is India’s primary legislative body, and its composition will determine which party or coalition gets to nominate a prime minister and form the next government. Over the 44-day electoral period, nearly 970 million people will be eligible to vote, the most ever. More than 1 million polling stations will be set up, and officials will be dispatched to remote corners of the country’s vast geography to collect ballots.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, one of the world’s most popular heads of state, is expected to lead his Bharatiya Janata Party to a comfortable victory and secure a third consecutive term in office. We sat down with Eurasia Group experts Rahul Bhatia and Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to learn more about the upcoming elections.
What are the main issues for voters?
The chief concerns are inflation, particularly high food prices, and unemployment, especially among the youth. More than one-third of Indians believe they are worse off than before the pandemic-induced lockdowns, while about two-thirds say it is now harder to find a job. Though religious-political issues are also on voters' minds, they hold less weight than economic ones.
Despite apparent concerns about the economy, an overwhelming 75% of Indians approve of Modi’s leadership. He gets high marks for delivering targeted welfare schemes, upgrading the country’s infrastructure, and raising India’s international profile. He also gets credit for implementing elements of the BJP’s longstanding religious-political agenda, such as constructing a grand temple dedicated to the Hindu deity Ram and revoking the special autonomous status of the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir region.
Modi has come under criticism for alleged anti-democratic tendencies – why is that and will this be a factor for voters?
Under Modi, press and political freedoms have suffered. Opposition parties have accused the prime minister of using government investigative agencies to harass opposition leaders and constrain their ability to contest elections. Other critics allege the government has undermined India’s secular constitution and its pluralistic values with its actions favoring the country’s Hindu majority population. While Modi's attitude toward civil liberties is not unlike that of past prime ministers who enjoyed a similar single-party majority, there are genuine concerns about democratic backsliding in India. Nevertheless, apart from a small urban elite, the average Indian voter doesn’t seem concerned.
What is the state of the opposition alliance?
Since the 2014 elections that brought Modi to power, the Indian National Congress, India’s largest opposition party, has struggled with a lack of clear leadership and an inability to craft an alternative political narrative that could capture the imagination of voters. It recently pivoted to an agenda of social and economic justice, but this strategy has not yet been tested at the ballot box.
Last July, the Congress and 25 smaller parties formed the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, aka INDIA, a big-tent coalition to pool their vote shares and create a stronger challenger to Modi and the BJP. However, the alliance has failed to cohere, and some regional parties have defected to the BJP’s alliance. Moreover, while seat-sharing arrangements had been agreed upon in some states, key regional parties have decided to contest their strongholds on their own, defeating the alliance’s purpose. The Congress and its partners remain far behind the BJP in the polls; they are not fighting to win the upcoming elections but rather to preserve their respective geographic power bases and limit Modi’s majority.
Modi has indicated he wants an expanded parliamentary majority – what does he aim to achieve in a potential third term?
Modi has said he aims to win 370 seats in the lower house of parliament, up from 303 at present. He is seeking a strong mandate to push through legislative changes – some of which are unpopular or challenge vested interests – that he believes are necessary to bolster economic growth. He wants to simplify the tax code and advance reforms on land, labor, agriculture, education, health, and electricity – which require the support of the states. A new Modi-led government would also continue efforts to upgrade infrastructure, including roads, railways, and airports.
Separately, Modi would seek to end India’s religion-based civil laws governing marriage and other issues and subsume them into a single uniform civil code – a process that has already begun at the state level.
Is Modi expected to serve just one more term? Is there a succession plan? What legacy does he want to leave behind?
It’s anybody’s guess whether another five-year term would be the last for Modi, who is 73 years old. He wants to leave behind a legacy of cementing India’s middle-income country status, raising its international stature, and correcting what the BJP believes are institutional biases against India’s Hindu population.
It does seem clear, however, that the BJP will face a succession problem when Modi steps down. The polls indicate that one in three people who vote for the BJP do so because they like Modi, not the BJP. As a result, the party might want Modi to contest the next elections in 2029 and then step down after that. While Amit Shah, the home minister, seems to be Modi’s preferred successor, he would probably face a leadership challenge from Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, and possibly from Himanta Biswa Sarma, the chief minister of Assam.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group
Prime Minister Narendra Modi being garlanded
Victories in state elections put Modi in commanding position for 2024
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP Party wrested control of the states of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh from the opposition Congress Party and held onto power in Madhya Pradesh in closely watched local elections over the weekend. The results bode well for Modi's chances of winning a third term as PM in national polls next year.
Modi’s tactic of campaigning personally for his party largely paid off, and why wouldn’t it? He is one of the most popular leaders in the world, with approval ratings well above 70%. His victory in next year's general election (as always, the largest democratic exercise in world history) is hardly in doubt.
India is now the fastest-growing major economy and its power on the international stage has never been greater — particularly as New Delhi positions itself simultaneously as both a leader of the Global South while also a partner to the US in Washington’s rivalry with a rising China. But the BJP’s better-than-expected performance is mainly a reflection of Modi’s successes at home.
Over the past nine years, Modi’s government has pushed through important big-picture economic reforms like reducing the tax burden and streamlining foreign investment, while also delivering practical improvements that have improved life for hundreds of millions of ordinary Indians, such as mass toilet installation and rural electrification. How do you not vote for the guy who made sure your kid has light to study by at night and isn’t missing school because of illnesses caused by poor sanitation?
Criticism from local activists and international watchdogs of Modi’s mistreatment of Muslims and other non-Hindu minorities simply hasn’t dented his popularity.
While Modi’s BJP isn’t a lock everywhere in India — Congress won the state of Telangana and a regional party won in Mizoram — the overall picture for Modi could hardly be better.