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Emmanuel Macron et Marine Le Pen
What We're Watching: Le Pen-Macron debate, round two in Ukraine, China's big Pacific move, Israel-Hamas flare-up
France’s moment of truth: Le Pen and Macron go head-to-head
Ahead of the second round of voting in France’s presidential elections on April 24, President Emmanuel Macron and his rival Marine Le Pen will go head-to-head in a live TV debate on Wednesday. Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally, won 23% percent of the first-round vote on April 10, just five points behind the incumbent. (Macron’s lead in the polls is now believed to be as much as 12 points.) Indeed, the debate will be a crucial moment in the tighter-than-expected race for the Élysée. Le Pen is vying for a comeback: last time the two candidates debated in the 2017 runoff, she was accused of being light on policy and heavy on insults. Le Pen will want to emphasize her populist, anti-establishment credentials that have proven popular with the electorate – particularly young voters – while playing down claims that she is chummy with alleged war criminal Vladimir Putin. Macron, on the other hand, will try to play up his progressive bonafides to appeal to younger voters who cast their first-round vote for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon – who reaped 22% of the vote – but are inclined to stay home on Sunday.War in Ukraine: Round Two
Russia and Ukraine agree the war has now entered round two. But what did they learn from round one? Having downscaled its ambitions to an aggressive assault on the Donbas region in Ukraine’s east, the Russian army has massed tens of thousands of troops along a 300-mile-long semicircle and launched a fresh assault. Experts say Russians can grind their way toward gains by training more firepower on a smaller range of targets. But Ukrainian soldiers know the terrain. They’ve been dug into these same positions since Russian-backed separatists began their fight with Kyiv in 2014. Even if they can’t win, they might inflict enough damage to force Vladimir Putin to rethink his broader ambitions in Ukraine. According to a report published on Monday by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, Russian weaknesses exposed in round one may continue in round two, including low Russian morale and logistical challenges that “indicate the effective combat power of Russian units in eastern Ukraine is a fraction of their on-paper strength.” In fact, a US official estimated on Tuesday that Russia has lost 25% of its combat troops since the war began.
China makes a big Pacific move
Hours after US officials rushed to the South Pacific to stop the Solomon Islands from inking a landmark security pact with China on Tuesday, Beijing suddenly announced that the deal had been signed. The Americans don't like a clause in the draft agreement that would allow the Chinese to deploy their armed forces in the country, which has experienced political and social unrest in recent months. China, for its part, insists that it'll only do so at the request of the government. The Solomon Islands are now firmly in China's camp after un-recognizing Taiwan in 2019, although the government denies it'll let China establish a military base there. Still, the US and its allies Australia and New Zealand worry that the deal creates a dangerous precedent that'll enable China to gain a military foothold in a region that's become the latest and a rather unexpected flashpoint for US-China competition in the wider Indo-Pacific.
Israeli-Palestinian clashes risk flare-up
Israel struck a Hamas weapons facility in the Gaza Strip early Tuesday after Palestinian militants fired a rocket into southern Israel, the first launched from the Hamas-run enclave in four months. While no group has officially claimed responsibility, Islamic Jihad, a militant group based in Gaza, is believed to have been behind the attack. This could suggest that Hamas, which has long restrained its junior partner to avoid devastating escalations like the one in May 2021, might be loosening its reins or even condoning a flare-up. This follows recent clashes between Muslim worshippers and Israeli police at the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, which left dozens injured. Amid the violence, Hamas has been trying to position itself as the “protector” of Jerusalem and the West Bank to undermine its rival, the Palestinian Authority. Meanwhile, tensions are also high in the West Bank, where the Israeli military has conducted a series of raids after a recent spate of Palestinian terror attacks in several Israeli cities left 14 people dead. Neither side appears to want a serious escalation, but that’s no guarantee it won’t happen.
What to expect from Biden-Putin summit; Israel-Hamas tenuous ceasefire holds
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week:
How did the Biden-Putin summit go?
Well, we don't know, because it's not over yet, but I'll tell you, the opening, the opening looked fine. They shook hands. They're well prepped. Putin had to be on time because Biden was coming later. That made it a little bit easier. I think this is so overdone. This is not Gorbachev-Reagan. This is Russia in the context of a much more important strategic priority, China, for the United States. I expect little is going to come out, in terms of substance. The meeting will be cordial. There will be some desire to work together on things like arms control. The big question will be, what exactly is said, and if anything is committed to on cyberattacks, how the US is going to respond because so far Biden's looked pretty weak on that issue.
With Israel resuming airstrikes, is the ceasefire with Hamas over?
No. There was a series of attacks back and forth, incendiary balloons sent by Hamas from Gaza, landing in fields, didn't kill anybody. Israel responding immediately with airstrikes on Hamas training bases, didn't kill anybody. That's an end to that. It is, obviously, a very tenuous ceasefire, and it could blow up. Another point to raise is that this administration, run by new Premiere Naftali Bennett, is every bit as hard-line on dealing with the Palestinians, a general policy that gets large majorities of the Israelis to support it, as Netanyahu was. The problem, if there is an explosion in the ceasefire, is that the Arab party that is a part of the coalition could pull out and force yet another election. So, there is some consequence here, but I don't actually think that we've yet blown it up.
How is North Korea managing its food crisis?
Looks like its worst since the 1990s. The answer is, not really well. This has been both a flooding issue and horrible agricultural mismanagement. Plus, they've also had supply-chain problems and they're being hit with a horrible COVID explosion. And they don't really trust vaccines that are coming from other countries, not even China. And so, as a consequence, there could be more instability in North Korea than any of us assess right now. We don't get great information out of that country. It's not like Eurasia Group has stringers on the ground as we do everywhere else. So it's a hard one. I do think that there is now as a consequence of this, more of an opening for the Biden administration, if they want it. They are clearly thinking about reaching out to the North Koreans, not with a summit, but the possibility of starting some framework for arms control negotiations. If that's happening, it is out of a recognition that North Korea is a nuclear power and denuclearization is not going to happen. This is a space worth watching. I would focus on it over the next coming weeks because it's being discussed actively in the White House right now.
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Myanmar migrant workers protesting against the military junta hold a picture of leader Aung San Suu Kyi during a candlelight vigil at a Buddhist temple in Bangkok, Thailand.
What We’re Watching: Suu Kyi on trial, Blinken in Israel, Mali coup 2.0
Suu Kyi in the dock: Myanmar's former leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Tuesday made her first court appearance since the military coup that deposed her last February. Suu Kyi, 75, faces uncorroborated charges — ranging from illegally importing walkie-talkies to breaching COVID rules — that could put her behind bars for the rest of her life. The National League for Democracy, Suu Kyi's political party that defended her in court, is now also at risk as the military junta is trying to dissolve it — mainly because it trounced the pro-military party in the December parliamentary election. Myanmar's generals seem to think that they can go back in time to the days of complete dominance if they throw Suu Kyi in jail and ban the NLD. But they may be underestimating the popular appetite for democratic change in a country where the military is as powerful as it is unpopular. Whatever the junta decrees, expect the NLD to continue its political activities underground and in exile.
Blinken on tour: Less than a week after a ceasefire went into effect between Israel and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has touched down in the region for a tour. Blinken met on Tuesday with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, where he listed the following as threatening a viable two-state solution between Israeli Jews and Palestinians: "Settlement activity, demolitions, evictions, incitement to violence, payments to terrorists." Blinken also met Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, as well as other leaders of Palestinian civil society. The Secretary of State hopes to provide a steady presence amid a tenuous truce, but he did reiterate America's commitment to rebuilding the Gaza Strip after recent Israeli airstrikes. Blinken warned, however, that no money would go to Hamas, which is designated a terror group by the US State Department. In a significant development, he also announced that the US would reopen its Jerusalem Consulate – whose autonomous Palestinian affairs office was downgraded under the Trump administration – in a bid to boost ties with Palestinians.
Another coup in Mali? Last August, Mali's democratically elected government was toppled in a coup led by Col. Assimi Goita, who emerged from that dustup as interim vice president. Now, he has detained the transitional president, prime minister and defense minister for not consulting him before forming a new government, and seized power himself. Goita says next year's general election will go ahead as planned, but that until then he will head the transitional government. Meanwhile, neighboring countries, as well as former colonial power France and the African Union, condemned the move and demanded the release of the detained leaders. Goita, for his part, denied this is another coup, referring to his move as a mere "cabinet reshuffle." Mali is now set to experience fresh political instability amid rapidly worsening insecurity in the broader Sahel region, where jihadists groups are taking advantage of weak governance to control vast swaths of territory. Jihadist violence claimed over 2,800 lives in Mali in 2020, the bloodiest year to date in the mineral-rich state.Debris fly as smoke rises following an Israeli air strike, amid Israeli-Palestinian fighting, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip.
What We’re Watching: Israel-Hamas truce, South Korean pardon, weird vaccine incentives
Israel and Hamas agree to ceasefire: After 11 days of intense violence, Israel and Hamas have agreed to an Egypt-brokered ceasefire that goes into effect Friday at 2 am local time. Since May 10, Hamas has fired more than 4,000 rockets at Israeli cities, resulting in a dozen deaths and scores of injuries, while Israel has carried out hundreds of air and ground strikes on Gaza, leaving the Palestinian death toll at more than 200. Now both sides have reportedly agreed to stop fighting without conditions. Each will claim a victory of sorts: Israel says it has seriously degraded Hamas' terrorist infrastructure, setting the group back many years, while Hamas will assert itself as the real protector of Jerusalem and boast of its successes in firing long-range munitions at Israel. How long the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds is a big question, but another major challenge will be dealing with clashes within Israel, where tensions between Jews and Arabs have soared.
South Korean pardon for... chips? Seoul is under mounting pressure from the US to pardon Lee Jae-yong, South Korea's richest man. Lee is currently serving a 30-month prison sentence for his role in a massive corruption scandal, but he's also the heir at Samsung, one of the world's largest semiconductor manufacturers. So long as he's in prison the company's future leadership is in doubt, and given an ongoing global shortage of microchips that has crippled the US auto industry, that's no small matter for Washington. South Korean President Moon Jae-in seems open to clemency, but he's in a tough spot. On the one hand, a smooth succession at Samsung is crucial for the tech giant to keep churning out semiconductors. On the other, pardoning Lee would send the (wrong) message that powerful and corrupt people always find a way to evade justice. Moon must tread carefully, wary that the Samsung scandal cost his predecessor Park Geun-hye her job in 2015.
Have cow, will vaccinate: Thousands of people have registered to get COVID vaccines in a Thai town after the mayor announced he would raffle off free cows to residents who get jabs. Similar vaccination incentives are happening all over the world, including a free visit to Dracula's castle in Romania or gold nose pins for women in India. The biggest draw so far is in the US state of Ohio, which offers a $1 million prize for the lucky winner of its weekly vaccine lottery. While all of these ploys will surely entice some skeptics, it's not clear whether freebies and rewards like this can really move the needle — so to speak — on vaccine hesitancy. Meanwhile, not all countries are using carrots: Indonesia has made vaccination mandatory, and will fine or cut subsidies to people who refuse a shot. Whether you prefer incentives or punishment, expect more — and perhaps weirder — vaccine incentives to pop up as the jabs become more available, particularly across the developing world, in coming months.Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) shakes hands with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden during their meeting at Netanyahu's residence in Jerusalem March 9, 2010.
What kind of leverage does Biden really have with Bibi?
The bloody conflict between Israel and Hamas is now in its second week. Hamas militants are firing rockets at major population centers in Israel, while the Israeli military continues to pound the densely-populated Gaza Strip with artillery and missiles. More than 200 Palestinians are dead and at least 10 Israelis have been killed.
Given the lopsided death toll and the humanitarian impact of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, critics of Israel's campaign have called on the US, Israel's closest ally, to do more to stop the violence.
Until Monday evening, the Biden administration had pointedly avoided calling publicly for a ceasefire, allowing more time for Israel to respond to the ongoing Hamas rocket attacks, but also deepening the humanitarian impact on the people of Gaza.
Why didn't the US intervene before the death toll mounted? And what kind of leverage does Washington, in practice, have over the situation?
A few things to consider.
Powerful as the US is, Biden probably can't just pick up the phone and order the Israelis to stop targeting Gaza. If he did, Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu would almost certainly ignore him. Yes, the rightwing Netanyahu is ultra-hawkish when it comes to the Palestinians, but it's hard to imagine any Israeli prime minister, even from the left, calling off a strong military response in Gaza while rockets are raining down on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Even Merav Michaeli, leader of the leftwing Labor party, hasn't opposed the military campaign itself.
In fact, so far no major Jewish Israeli political leaders, from left or right, have done so. While Jewish Israelis may differ sharply on other aspects of the conflict such as settlements policy or the best path to a two-state solution, on this there is mostly broad consensus. A recent poll showed that 72 percent of Israelis oppose a ceasefire at the moment. That's a wall of support that even a phone call from the US president would be unlikely to crack.
What about holding back arms sales or military aid? The US supplies $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel annually, as part of a decade-long agreement reached in 2016 under the Obama administration. Washington is also Israel's main arms dealer, and in principle, these are powerful tools that Biden could use to influence Israeli behavior. But there are several major caveats.
First, President Biden himself is historically reluctant to use that lever of power: "I have been on record from very early on opposed to the [illegal Israeli] settlements [in the West Bank]," he told reporters in 2019, "but the idea that we would draw military assistance from Israel on the condition that they change a specific policy I find to be absolutely outrageous."
Second, even if — like his one-time presidential rival Bernie Sanders — Biden did want to put that aid in play, oversight of these appropriations lies chiefly with the US Congress rather than with the White House. And in Congress, despite rising concerns from some Democrats about the human rights and humanitarian impact of Israel's Gaza campaign, there's still a bipartisan consensus against using military aid as a tool of influence over Israel.
Last month, more than three-quarters of House representatives signed a letter saying as much. And on Tuesday, the Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), agreed to drop a recent call to review a $735 million shipment of precision guided bombs to Israel. The sale had been approved by the White House before the current violence began.
What are Washington's other points of leverage? The US holds a UN Security Council veto which it has often used to shield Israel from condemnation by the international community. This is a powerful instrument and one that matters for Israel, which is keen to avoid broader international isolation. Over the past week, the US has in fact blocked three UNSC resolutions calling for ceasefires, because the texts did not mention the Hamas rocket attacks as part of the problem.
So… will there be a ceasefire? Observers expect some movement by the end of this week now that the US has explicitly supported one. Both Hamas and Israel are looking to get their last licks in while Egypt leads the effort to broker a halt to the fighting.
But at this point, what pauses the violence may have less to do with US pressure and more to do with the calculations of Israel and Hamas themselves.
UPDATE: Includes polling numbers on Israeli support/opposition to cease-fire in 7th paragraph. 05/20/21
What We're Watching: White House backs Gaza ceasefire, Southeast Asia's COVID spike, Iran's heavyweight contenders weigh in
Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza? Fighting between the Israeli military and Hamas/Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants in the Gaza Strip has now entered its second week. Over the weekend, Israel intensified its bombing of the Gaza Strip, which included targeting a building that houses Al-Jazeera and AP, two foreign media outlets, causing their reporters to hastily flee the premises (Israel has so far not substantiated its claim that Hamas intelligence operatives were working in the building.) At least 42 Gazans were killed in a single Israeli strike Sunday, bringing the Palestinian death toll above 200. Meanwhile, Hamas continued to fire rockets at southern and central Israel, resulting in several casualties. On Monday, for the first time since the violent outbreak, US President Joe Biden voiced support for a ceasefire driven by the Egyptians and others. However, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, has said that the operation will "take time," and a truce is off the table until Hamas' military capabilities are significantly degraded. Civilians on both sides continue to suffer.
Southeast Asia braces for pandemic surge: COVID-19 has hardly finished with India, which is still grappling with the world's largest outbreak, but now many of the country's neighbors in Southeast Asia are bracing for their own wave of infections. Thailand on Monday reported nearly 10,000 new cases, up from about 300 at the beginning of April. The outbreak there is being driven in part by rapid spread in the country's famously cramped prisons. In Malaysia, meanwhile, new daily cases have tripled over the last month, rising to more than 4,500 last week, owing in part to Ramadan and Eid celebrations in the predominantly Muslim country. Vietnam, lauded for acting early to quash the spread last year, is now seeing a sharp increase as well, though the numbers are still small — new cases leapt from 14 daily at the beginning of May to nearly 300 over the weekend. The two big question marks (paywall) are Indonesia, where (reported) cases have so far stayed low, but could rise in the wake of the Islamic religious holidays, and the Philippines which managed to quash a surge in March but is still seeing high positivity rates. Across the region, vaccination rates are low, health care systems are creaky, and vast swathes of the population are not able to simply "work from home." The example of India's recent COVID apocalypse looms large.
Iran's presidential frontrunners: One month from Tuesday, Iranians will head to the polls to choose their next president, the person who oversees their country's economy and domestic policies while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attends to foreign policy and negotiations over the country's nuclear program. Nearly 600 candidates have announced their intention to run, but over the next couple of weeks, the Guardian Council, an unelected body of clerics and jurists, will nullify all but a handful of hopefuls. For now, it appears that judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani are probably the frontrunners. Raisi is a so-called hardliner, a religious conservative who vows to fight corruption and who opposes better relations with the West. Larijani, meanwhile, played a significant negotiating role in both the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with the US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia, as well as in a "strategic cooperation" deal with China signed earlier this year. No matter who wins the fate of negotiations over a revitalized nuclear agreement will continue to depend on the Supreme Leader, but the vote will tell us something about how Iran's people see the issue.
Israel and Hamas on the brink of war
After a year of relative calm, clashes between Israel and Hamas erupted Monday, putting the two sides on the brink of full-blown war.
Flare-ups between the Israeli military and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip seem to be cyclical. But there are a few developments that make this latest round of tit-for-tat strikes somewhat atypical.
What's different this time?
Targeting Israel's hubs. In the past, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants in Gaza have restricted rocket fire mostly to southern Israel. On Monday, however, they upped the ante, firing dozens of rockets into the heart of Jerusalem. In response, Israel's army launched a broad military campaign in the Gaza Strip, killing several Hamas and PIJ commanders.
Then on Tuesday night, in an unprecedented move, Hamas and PIJ fired hundreds of rockets into Tel Aviv and central Israel, sending millions running for cover in bomb shelters, and prompting Israel to shutter its international airport. So far, 43 Palestinians, including 13 children, have been killed in Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip, while at least six Israelis have been killed and dozens more injured.
Outside players.
Gulf states. This is the biggest Israeli-Palestinian escalation since 2014, when conflict lasted for 50 days. But this time, clashes come just months after Israel has signed normalization agreements with Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. While the UAE — which has welcomed thousands of Israeli tourists in recent months as a result of normalization — has called on Israel to stop the violence and respect "the Holy al-Aqsa Mosque," for now its government has shown no willingness to play an active role in brokering negotiations.
A test for Biden. Recent events also pose a conundrum for US President Joe Biden, a longtime "friend" of Israel who is also focused on placating the progressive wing of his party, which is more supportive than other US lawmakers of Palestinian rights.
Progressive Democrats like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Elizabeth Warren have called on Biden to intervene in the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, which Biden has made clear isn't a top foreign-policy priority. Moreover, Biden likely doesn't want to do — or say —anything that will provoke the Israelis as his administration tries to revive the Iran nuclear deal, which the Israeli government opposes. But now that the situation is escalating so quickly, Washington may be compelled to get more involved.
The backstory.
Elections matter. Hamas warned last month that it would wreak havoc if the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs in the West Bank, cancelled this month's parliamentary vote, the first Palestinian elections since 2006. Nonetheless, PA President Mahmoud Abbas, fearing a massive electoral loss to Hamas, proceeded to postpone the vote indefinitely. Hamas is fuming.
This follows mass unrest in Jerusalem in recent weeks. A high-profile court case over the potential eviction of several Palestinian families from East Jerusalem's Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood fueled riots and clashes between Palestinians and Israeli police. Jerusalem-based police courted more trouble when they blocked access to a plaza in Jerusalem's Old City that serves as a town-square for Arab residents during Ramadan. Tensions peaked when Israeli police used heavy-handed tactics to crack down on Palestinians protesting at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound.
Hamas, casting itself as the real "protector" of Jerusalem to garner political support, used the violence in Jerusalem as a pretext to launch a barrage of rockets into Israel. Hamas does have a solid base of support given that 37 percent of Palestinians said recently that "armed struggle" is the best way to end the occupation, compared to 36 percent who favored negotiations. In striking Jerusalem, "Hamas is trying to embarrass and punish Abbas for cancelling parliamentary polls that it was slated to benefit from," says Moran Stern, an academic at Georgetown University.
Arab-Israeli communities are fired up. For Israel, however, the longer-term danger comes from within its own Arab-Israeli sector, which constitutes approximately 20 percent of the total Israeli population. In recent weeks, Arab communities inside Israel have taken a more active role in protests, which have turned unprecedentedly violent. (A state of emergency has now been declared in the integrated Arab-Jewish city of Lod.) This development startled many politicians who tout co-existence between Israeli Arabs and Jews as a model for broader Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Asked about this development, Moran Stern said: "As tensions rose in Sheikh Jarrah, Hamas has been trying to mobilize Arab communities, especially in East Jerusalem. It also hoped to mobilize supporters in the West Bank, President Abbas's stronghold. It seems the initial plan was to fuel events in those areas while keeping a safe distance so as not to give Israel an excuse to attack its assets in Gaza directly." But Stern notes that as things escalated, this has obviously changed. "The willingness of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to escalate by launching massive rocket attacks all the way to Tel Aviv surprised intelligence analysts." Still, Hamas' approach seems to have worked: Arab-Israelis are now angry and activated.
Next steps. Still mired in political chaos, Israel does not have a functioning government to lead the way, while President Abbas has also been missing in action in recent days. Meanwhile, both Israel and Hamas are now upping their rhetoric. The risk of an escalation of deadly violence continues to rise.
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