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U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hold a joint press conference in the East Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., February 4, 2025.
Israel weighs Iran strikes, but Trump will make the final call
Recent US intelligence reports indicate Israel is considering strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025. The assessment, produced during the waning days of the Biden administration, suggests Israel sees an opportunity to act in the face of Iran’s weakened military capabilities, loss of regional allies, and economic challenges.
If a strike is carried out, Eurasia Group expert Greg Brew says Iran’s nuclear program would likely be “damaged but not destroyed” and that any such move would need US involvement to “eliminate the risk that Iran dashes to a bomb immediately after.”
Any meaningful strike would require extensive US involvement – from providing munitions and possibly aircraft to offering defensive support against Iranian retaliation. A truly successful operation would have to target fortified facilities like Natanz and Fordow, which are both deeply entrenched underground, and only US military capabilities can effectively reach them.
That means it’s Trump’s call. Although the US president has reimposed his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, Brew says, “Trump has made it clear that he’s more interested in talking, not bombing — at least initially.”
But, Brew adds, “It’s possible the timely leak of these intel reports is part of a US strategy, presenting Iran with two options: Make a deal, or Israel will bomb you.”
After Israel's response to Iran, what's next?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. No, not US elections, that'll be next week. This week. Want to talk about the Middle East and the fact that the Israelis almost a month after Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, though most of them didn't get through and no Israeli deaths on the ground, nonetheless, the Israelis expected to respond. And respond they finally have.
Military targets that they focused on. They did some damage, caused more damage to Iran than the Iranians did to Israel during their attack. That's clearly a message that the Israelis intended to send in terms of their ability to have dominance over both escalation and deterrence between the two. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, on the back of that, said not to exaggerate or downplay the strikes, that the Iranians will respond, but also the Iranians said that they fully intercepted the Israeli attack. In other words, nothing big to see here. Crude oil down about 6% today. In other words, this is the end of this escalation cycle between Iran and Israel.
Now, I have been critical of the Biden administration's inability to have much of any impact on Israeli decision-making over the course of this war. This time is a little different, they did have some impact here. And in the early days after the Israelis were hit by Iran, and keep in mind the Iranians got that information that the strike was coming to the United States, the US, of course, immediately shared it with Israel and did everything they could to coordinate with allies in the region to defend Israel effectively, which helped to ensure that the Israelis didn't take casualties, significant casualties.
But also the Biden administration saying they really didn't want Israel to engage in strikes against nuclear targets in Iran, against oil targets in Iran. And they did a couple of things for Israel. First, they sent an additional THAAD missile defense system, which they got to Israel and set up within two weeks on the ground, which is incredible fast-tracking to help further defend Israel.
Secondly, they actually took sanctions, put sanctions on additional tankers that were shutting down their transponders and shipping oil illegally for Iranian export. Not everything. The Iranians have over a million barrels a day that they get out, but probably took about 200,000 barrels a day off the market. In other words, that's money that the Iranians no longer have access to that they were able to use for whatever they wanted, including paying for Iranian proxies that target Israel.
In response for that and American diplomacy, the Israelis ended up, I would argue, with a slightly more restrained strike against Iran. They did engage in hits against Iranian missile production facilities, as well as defense against their ... that helps to defend their nuclear, their research program and weapons program, such as it is, which means that Israel has made it very clear to Iran that if they want to do this again, that Iran is not going to be able to defend itself effectively. So the message has been very, very clearly sent.
Of course, it was also helpful for Israel that they were able to kill Sinwar, the Palestinian Hamas leader, in Rafah, in Gaza, over the past couple of weeks. I mean, the Israeli war cabinet is flying high from a military perspective right now. They didn't need to show great capacity against Iran, nor have they, given their recent successes against Hezbollah.
I think it's interesting how Iran is responding to all of this, that we're seeing Iranian leaders, not just on the president and foreign affairs side, who are more reformist in orientation, but also recently Ali Velayati, who's an advisor to the Supreme Leader, saying that the Iranians are very interested in engaging more with the West, specifically with Europe. In other words, with the Iranians seeing that they are clearly on the back foot vis-a-vis Israel, is there any way that they can more effectively engage with the West, normalized relations, maybe end up with more money for their economy that way?
Certainly, I expect that they are also thinking heavily about what else they can do in their nuclear program, either illicitly or maybe with Russian support. But for now, it looks like Israel's policies vis-a-vis Iran have played out successfully, in part because they are the strongest military game without question in town.
That's where we are right now. Those are the latest headlines, and for the next week we're going to be talking a lot about US elections. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Iran's next move: Interview with VP Javad Zarif
As the anniversary of the Oct 7th Hamas attacks approaches, tensions in the Middle East are reaching a boiling point. Israel has ramped up its military operations against Iran-backed forces, launching devastating airstrikes across Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s ground offensive into Lebanon has further escalated the conflict, as has Iran sending a wave of missiles towards Israel.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Iran's new Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif just days before the Nasrallah assassination and Iran’s response. In their conversation, Zarif delves into the far-reaching ramifications of the ongoing conflict. He says, “So the myth of Israeli invincibility is gone. And I think that's a major loss for Israel.” Zarif also speaks about what he calls Iran’s unwavering stance on its right to self-defense and its determination to not fall into Israel’s “trap.”
And with an upcoming election, Zarif weighs in on the prospects of a Harris or Trump administration and addresses accusations of Iranian meddling. Zarif notes, “I don't have any preference. But some may prefer him in Iran. Some may believe that he is more in the national interest of Iran.”
Although Iran’s new president has promised to find common ground with the West, recent events have made it clear that the geopolitical tightrope remains perilously thin. As tensions continue to flare, the world waits and asks: What is Iran's next move?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Are US threats making Iran rethink retaliation against Israel? ›
- Will Israel strike Iran – and if so, how hard? ›
- Israel invades southern Lebanon, threatens Iran ›
- Iran launches ballistic missiles at Israel in revenge attack ›
- Israel hits Iran directly – what next? ›
- How October 7th changed Israel and the Middle East - GZERO Media ›
- Israel's next move - GZERO Media ›
The view from Tehran: Iran's VP Zarif on Israel, Gaza & US complicity in ongoing conflicts
Listen: The Middle East finds itself teetering on the brink of a full-scale regional conflict as the world marks one year since the October 7th Hamas attacks. Israel has intensified its military operations against Iran-backed forces across multiple fronts, leaving destruction in its wake. In the span of a week, the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s ground offensive into Lebanon have thrown gasoline on an already raging fire.
On this episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Iran's Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif, just before the Nasrallah assassination news broke. They discuss Iran's recent actions during this critical time. In their conversation, Zarif discusses the conflict’s broader regional impact, Iran’s right to self-defense, and its determination that Iran will not fall into Israel’s “trap.” Zarif also weighs in on the upcoming US presidential election, speculating on whether a Harris or Trump administration would benefit Iran, and addresses the rumors of an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump. He says, "We don’t send people to assassinate people. I think it’s a campaign ploy." Zarif adds that, despite the new Iranian President’s pledge for a rapprochement with the West, recent developments have only driven the wedge further. And with Israel now in northern Lebanon, Iran now stands at a crossroads of what to do next.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- Iran is protecting itself through restraint in Israel-Hamas war, says Kim Ghattas ›
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Iran's right to self-defense: VP Mohammad Javad Zarif
Is the shadow war between Israel and Iran officially out in the open? Iran launched a wave of ballistic missiles into Israel Tuesday night, calling the attack a response to Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in Lebanon last week. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps also said the attack was retaliation for the killing of Hamas’s political leader, Ismael Haniyeh, assassinated while visiting Tehran last July, as well as Israel’s April attack on an Iranian embassy in Syria, which killed an Iranian commander.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer spoke with Iran’s Vice President of Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif on September 25, days before Nasrallah’s assassination and Iran’s missile response. Zarif, who served as Iran’s foreign minister until 2021, made it clear that Tehran had a right to defend itself and warned Iran could respond to Israel at any time. Zarif said that Iran had, up to that point, shown restraint in order to avoid being “dragged” into a wider war, which he claimed would play into Israeli interests.
“[Israel] thrives on tension, on conflict, and we will not provide it to them,” Zarif said less than a week before Iran fired missiles into Israel’s territory, “But that doesn’t mean we will fail to defend our territory, our people, and our guests.”
Watch Ian Bremmer’s full interview with Vice President Zarif on GZERO World beginning this Friday, October 4. Check local listings.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Iran-Israel crisis: Dangers still high with little room for diplomacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does the Iran-Israel crisis offer a unique opportunity for diplomacy?
I don't think so. They certainly give an opportunity for a bunch of countries to reengage with Israel. We're seeing that with Jordan, with Saudi Arabia, and to show the Iranians that they are still considered to be the big concern as an enemy in the region, a disrupter. But that's very different from saying we're going to see a breakthrough in relations. You're not resetting deterrence. Iran is going to continue to lead the axis of resistance and provide weapons and intelligence and engage in strikes against targets across the region. Israel will still hit Iranians that are operating there. So going forward, I think the dangers are still pretty high.
Is Germany's Scholz meeting with Xi in Beijing indicating a shift in Europe-China trade tensions?
Not really. Here, the fact that Scholz has a large number of German CEOs in tow means that, yes, he's concerned that the Chinese are providing support to Russia, maybe even increasingly dual-use military support to Russia in the war in Ukraine. He's concerned about Chinese industrial policy that's undermining, the interests of Americans and Europeans economically. But ultimately he is very reliant on investment and trade with China, and he's going to continue to support that. He is not fully aligned with his government on this issue, not his advisors, not his foreign minister, and certainly not the other parties in the coalition. But it is Scholz's perspective. And as a consequence, it is going to be a pretty friendly trip.
Why is Sudan's year-long conflict gone largely unnoticed?
Well, we write about it a fair amount, but I mean, the fact that it is in a part of the world that doesn't have economic implications. So you blow up Ukraine, and Russia is in a fight, and energy prices and food and fertilizer prices go up. Major conflict in Sudan. A lot of people suffer, a lot of people die, but the rest of the world has no impact economically. Also, most of the refugees, people fleeing, fleeing to neighboring African countries, they're not coming over to Mexico, the United States or to Poland and to Germany. And that just doesn't lead to a lot of attention. Final point is that there aren't a lot of journalists on the ground from the West in Sudan. And so not a lot of people are actually covering this. So for all of those reasons, not getting a lot of attention, but we'll keep talking about it.
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- Biden’s Iran dilemma ›
- Iran attacks Israel ›
- Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond? ›
- Israel attacks Iran - GZERO Media ›
- Hamas leader assassinated in Iran - GZERO Media ›
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will Iran respond to the attack on their consulate in Syria?
An Israeli strike that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader of Iran in Syria. So on the one hand, Iranian citizen, high-level military official. On the other hand, not in Iran itself, in Syria supporting proxy attacks. Clearly the Iranians have been willing to push hard using the leverage they have in the so-called acts of resistance to engage in strikes against civilian shipping, against Western military capabilities, and against Israel.
The Israelis are showing that they will attack wherever they think fit against them, but Iran has been reluctant to allow this to potentially lead to escalation in a direct war against Iran, which is why it's hard to imagine the Iranians engaging in direct strikes against Israel itself. Ballistic missile strikes from Iran into Israel. So in other words, if you're going to hit Israel, you try to use proxies or you try to hit Israelis outside of Israel itself. Israeli diplomatic facilities, for example, that's where I think you're more likely to see escalation. Escalation seems almost certain from the Iranians, but containing it also is something the Americans and Israel are trying very, very hard to do and that continues to be the case like when we saw the American servicemen killed in Jordan a couple months ago.
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Assuming it happens, remember Netanyahu was saying that he has a date now for the strike, but he said that strikes were going to start once Ramadan began if there had not been an agreement on this six-week, hostages for temporary ceasefire deal. There wasn't such a deal, Netanyahu backed off, he could back off again. Also, the ultimatum from the United States is not about a war in Rafah. It is about a large-scale ground war without providing the ability for the Palestinians to evacuate and get humanitarian aid.
Between those two positions there's a lot of wiggle room and one expects that the Israeli government, as they are thinking about those strikes, which I do believe will come, will try to claim domestically that they're doing what they need to clear up Hamas and claim to the Americans that it is at a reduced cost of civilians and it is engaged in the spirit of working with the Americans and not requiring Biden to shut down offensive support for Israel. That's where we are.
What's the fallout from Ecuador's raid of a Mexican embassy?
Well, the first thing is President Noboa of Ecuador, this is political. This is a former vice president who was taking, was sheltering in the Mexican embassy. You raid it, that is a breach of international law, but there is a security, largely security referendum, nationwide referendum coming up in just a couple of weeks in Ecuador that Noboa wants to win. He is ahead, it looks like he will win it now, and this is going to be very popular on the ground.
Guy had been sort of on their wanted list for a long time, but they decided to take that action now because of the domestic politics. So it helps him. Probably doesn't kill the IMF deal that is presently being negotiated, but certainly suspends diplomatic relations between the two countries and it's probably going to affect trade too. So you've alienated the Mexicans, but given the near-term political benefit for the Ecuadorian president, he thought that was a risk worth taking. Lots of impunity in this environment. It's one consistency that we see in our geopolitical recession, our GZERO world.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Ecuador’s anti-corruption candidate assassinated ›
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- Bibi sets date for Rafah invasion ›
- Turkish voters punish Erdogan in local elections ›
- How Netanyahu used Hamas to avoid talks of a two-state solution ›
- Yuval Noah Harari: Netanyahu's 'Deep State' fears enabled Oct 7 attack ›
- Netanyahu’s failed Gaza strategy ›
- Israel intent on Rafah invasion despite global backlash - GZERO Media ›
- With a Rafah invasion, is the Israel-Hamas cease-fire dead? - GZERO Media ›
Iran is protecting itself through restraint in Israel-Hamas war, says Kim Ghattas
Will Iran use Hezbollah fighters to help Hamas in Gaza?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer spoke with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas about the rising tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, as Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters exchange daily rocket fire and thousands of people on both sides flee their homes. Like Hamas, Hezbollah has an eradicationist ideology that calls for the destruction of the state of Israel, a position that could be untenable if the border clashes continue to escalate. Hezbollah is Iran’s most powerful proxy, but Ghattas doesn’t think it’s in Tehran’s interest to use the militant group to further Hamas’s goals.
“For 44 years Iran has claimed that is a supporter of the Palestinian people,” Ghattas explains, “I think Iran has come to realize that its use of the Palestinian cause has bumped up against the limits of what’s possible.”
Ghattas points out that Hezbollah’s primary purpose for Iran is to serve as a deterrent against potential strikes by Israel or the United States. The biggest priority now is to find a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian question. Given the urgency of the situation in Gaza, Iran may be more willing to discuss the possibility of a two-state solution, a position that would have been impossible to imagine even a few years ago.