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Israeli police search the scene of an explosion near a branch of the US embassy in Tel Aviv early Friday.
Deadly drone attack hits Tel Aviv ahead of Bibi’s visit to Washington
The Houthi militia in Yemen claimed responsibility for a drone attack in Tel Aviv early Friday that killed at least one person and wounded 10 others. The drone crashed into an apartment building not far from the US Embassy in Israel’s second-largest city.
This was the first time the Iran-backed group carried out a lethal attack in Israel – and it involved an Iran-made drone. The Israeli military is investigating how the drone evaded its defense systems. The drone was detected, but it wasn’t intercepted due to an “error,” said Israeli military spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari.
The war in Gaza has fueled major tensions between Israel and Tehran, as well as its proxies in the region. For months, there have been concerns that Israel could go to war in Lebanon with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Friday’s drone attack occurred not long after Israel announced it killed a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, and the fatal incident will likely raise further concerns that the war in Gaza risks spiraling into a much broader, regional conflict.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing to visit the US next week to address Congress. Though the US and Israel remain close allies, Netanyahu’s prosecution of the war in Gaza has made him unpopular with some Democratic lawmakers in Washington – particularly progressives – and he has frequently butted heads with the Biden administration.
The fact that the Knesset on Thursday overwhelmingly voted in favor of a resolution rejecting the establishment of a Palestinian state – a move indicative of growing Israeli opposition to a two-state solution, a goal the US has pushed for decades – could also lead to some awkward conversations for Netanyahu in Washington.
ICC war crimes charge strengthens Netanyahu's position in Israel
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week.
Plenty of breaking news right now. And what I want to focus on is the International Criminal Court, the ICC, which is now seeking arrest warrants for Hamas leadership and Israel's leadership, putting both on a level with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been friends with both Hamas leadership and Netanyahu over the years.
So it's kind of an interesting club. But this is certainly a challenging headline. And if you're watching this around the world and you're seeing that the International Criminal Court is making these cases against Sinwar who runs Hamas and other senior deputies, and the Israeli prime minister and the minister of defense.
What you are seeing, what you feel, the takeaway you would have is moral equivalence, culpability. Well, both of these must be, you know, sort of engaged in crimes against humanity, acting against international law. These are bad people. These are criminals. And I mean, I want to just take a step back for a second. Seven months after the worst killing of Jews since the Holocaust, you are seeing that democratically elected leaders of Israel, the only strong, albeit far from perfect democracy in the Middle East, is being put on the same plane as the terrorists that raped and tortured and killed Israeli citizens, still, seven months later, holding them hostage and want to destroy Israel as a country. That is an extraordinary headline for people to see and people around the world who are on very different sides of this conflict will respond to that very differently, radically differently.
But it's important to recognize what exactly we're seeing and just how far, if you will, the world has moved in what it thinks about this conflict, over the course of the seven months since October 7th. It's clearly bad for the United States and the Biden administration, in particular that President Biden is supporting the Israeli government, is the strongest ally of Israel of any country in the world. It continues, to send weapons, to share intelligence, and to broadly support the war against Hamas. Its continuation though certainly with significant disagreements in the way that the war has been conducted. It's also important to recognize that the United States has itself put out a report that said that war crimes, it believed, were likely to have been committed by the Israeli Defense Forces on the ground in Gaza, says it doesn't have sufficient evidence, to make those claims definitively because the Israelis have not provided the evidence requested by the United States.
But it is worth mentioning that a lot of what the Biden administration, including the secretary of state, the national security adviser, the director of the CIA, all of those have been making trips to Israel over the past months. A lot of what they've been saying privately to Israel, the opposition to using starvation as a tool of war, the demands that humanitarian aid in much greater amount be allowed in, the targeting of civilians with far less restraint than the Americans would want to see.
A lot of that is indeed reflected, though with much sharper language and publicly, in the ICC report. But of course, the United States and Israel, like Russia, do not recognize the ICC as a legitimate body. Most countries around the world do, the vast majority. But the Americans and the Israelis, do not. The response here is going to be stronger support for the Israeli government inside Israel, stronger support for the Israeli prime minister and defense minister inside Israel. The idea for any Israeli civilian, any Israeli civilian that their country, that their leadership could be somehow put in equivalence to the terrorist organization that attacked them on October 7th is utterly unthinkable. And so they're going to support their leadership in response to that claim makes it harder to remove the Israeli prime minister and government, something that certainly the United States and many around the world would like to see. It also puts the hard right in Israel in a stronger position, because that's what the PM needs to maintain his leadership.
And of course, this is a group that is much more equivalent to Hamas. Yes they were also democratically elected. There are many, many parties in Israel, and some of them are very extreme. And they managed to be the critical support to allow for a coalition to be established. But they have leaders who regularly, including members of cabinet in Israel, the minister of finance, the minister of national security, though not critically, any members of the War Cabinet, but they have been arguing for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. They have been arguing for the full and permanent Israeli occupation of that territory, essentially ideologically very similar to Hamas and the axis of resistance. I mean, what you hear them say is from the river to the sea. And if you're Hamas, that means for you, territory should only be for the Palestinians. If you're Israeli on the far right, that means the territory, should belong to the Jews. But neither of which are going to lead to any possible resolution other than greater fighting and war. But it is, of course, one of the true tragedies of the last seven months that these are the two organizations that have become, in a sense, stronger and with veto power over what the rest of the entire world is trying to bring to an end, is trying to create stability and eventually opportunity for these two people to live side by side without fighting each other.
We are farther from that, I'm afraid, today than we were yesterday, and certainly much farther from that today than we were on October 6th. That is it for me. And we'll be watching this, I'm sure, very closely. Thanks.
- ICC arrests and Rafah invasion threats loom ›
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- How Netanyahu used Hamas to avoid talks of a two-state solution ›
- Yuval Noah Harari: Netanyahu's 'Deep State' fears enabled Oct 7 attack ›
- Netanyahu and Hamas both won, Israelis and Palestinians lost ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Who is responsible for Gaza's enormous civilian death toll? - GZERO Media ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Who is responsible for Gaza's enormous civilian death toll? - GZERO Media ›
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Israel intent on Rafah invasion despite global backlash
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the international community respond to an Israeli invasion of Rafah?
Very, very badly. You see that the Israeli prime minister and War Cabinet continues to say that no matter what happens with the hostages and a potential deal, and everyone's trying to get one done at the last minute, that the intention is still very much to fight on the ground there. I don't think that's a bluff. And especially because it's supported by the entire Israeli political spectrum and the population, they believe that you've got to take out Hamas. And beyond that, there's also the concern about Hezbollah. So I think the international response is going to be very negative. It is certainly going to push back the possibility of any Saudi normalization, and it's going to lead to a lot more demonstrations and hostility against Israel in the United States and in Europe.
How would a Trump presidency be different from his first term?
I think the biggest issue, is that, Trump is going to be focused much more on ending, all of these cases against him, which he sees as completely unjust and that the political enemies, need to be responded to. And that means a top priority of ensuring that the leadership of the Department of Justice, the FBI, probably the IRS, are political appointees and loyalists to him. This was not a priority in the first administration. There's no Bill Barr coming back as attorney general. And I think the potential of that, to both create a new McCarthyism in the United States and also to create a structural advantage for the incumbent party in being able to ensure election outcomes much more strongly than you would in a normal, representative democracy, that is significantly at risk in that environment. That'll change the way we think about rule of law in the United States. That's probably the biggest difference.
Are growing US campus protests a sign of a chaotic election in November?
I wouldn't say that yet. We're still talking about relatively small numbers of students, and after graduations are over, I think the student protests are over. But there's no question this does reflect a significant anger among young people in the country. A lot of the people that are involved in the takeovers of buildings, for example, and the tussling with police, are not the students themselves, but people coming in, political entrepreneurs, if I can call them that, from outside. I am deeply concerned about what happens with the upcoming Democratic convention in Chicago. I think that could be very violent with lots of demonstrations. Certainly I don't see the war in Gaza over any time soon. And as a consequence of that, I think that, this is going to be a big problem and very, very challenging, as we think about the most dysfunctional and polarized US election since the 19th century, since the period of reconstruction.
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- What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like? ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Who is responsible for Gaza's enormous civilian death toll? - GZERO Media ›
Iran-Israel crisis: Dangers still high with little room for diplomacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does the Iran-Israel crisis offer a unique opportunity for diplomacy?
I don't think so. They certainly give an opportunity for a bunch of countries to reengage with Israel. We're seeing that with Jordan, with Saudi Arabia, and to show the Iranians that they are still considered to be the big concern as an enemy in the region, a disrupter. But that's very different from saying we're going to see a breakthrough in relations. You're not resetting deterrence. Iran is going to continue to lead the axis of resistance and provide weapons and intelligence and engage in strikes against targets across the region. Israel will still hit Iranians that are operating there. So going forward, I think the dangers are still pretty high.
Is Germany's Scholz meeting with Xi in Beijing indicating a shift in Europe-China trade tensions?
Not really. Here, the fact that Scholz has a large number of German CEOs in tow means that, yes, he's concerned that the Chinese are providing support to Russia, maybe even increasingly dual-use military support to Russia in the war in Ukraine. He's concerned about Chinese industrial policy that's undermining, the interests of Americans and Europeans economically. But ultimately he is very reliant on investment and trade with China, and he's going to continue to support that. He is not fully aligned with his government on this issue, not his advisors, not his foreign minister, and certainly not the other parties in the coalition. But it is Scholz's perspective. And as a consequence, it is going to be a pretty friendly trip.
Why is Sudan's year-long conflict gone largely unnoticed?
Well, we write about it a fair amount, but I mean, the fact that it is in a part of the world that doesn't have economic implications. So you blow up Ukraine, and Russia is in a fight, and energy prices and food and fertilizer prices go up. Major conflict in Sudan. A lot of people suffer, a lot of people die, but the rest of the world has no impact economically. Also, most of the refugees, people fleeing, fleeing to neighboring African countries, they're not coming over to Mexico, the United States or to Poland and to Germany. And that just doesn't lead to a lot of attention. Final point is that there aren't a lot of journalists on the ground from the West in Sudan. And so not a lot of people are actually covering this. So for all of those reasons, not getting a lot of attention, but we'll keep talking about it.
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A demonstrator stands next to a banner with an image of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as she attends a rally in Tel Aviv to demand an immediate cease-fire in Gaza on Jan. 27, 2024.
Can Bibi’s career survive the Israel-Hamas war?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced growing calls to resign since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas. In recent days, protesters have gathered outside his home. The war in Gaza isn’t going well. Hamas is far from being destroyed, and roughly 130 hostages remain in Gaza – prompting their family members to storm parliament in outrage. Meanwhile, there are questions as to whether Bibi’s governing coalition will fall apart.
It often seems as though the 74-year-old leader is a breath away from being pushed out of office. But is this war really the last chapter in the chaotic career of Israel’s longest-tenured prime minister?
“After October 7th, everybody was saying, ‘I think he's finished. He's done.’ And he's still there. I think it's probably a matter of time, but it's already been several months,” says Mairav Zonszein, a senior Israel-Palestine analyst for the International Crisis Group who’s based in Israel, adding that it’s “hard to see what the specific tipping point will be that will bring him down.”
Even before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, Netanyahu’s political career was on thin ice as he contended with a corruption trial and mass protests over his government’s judicial overhaul plan. The Israeli leader has since faced blame for security failures surrounding the Hamas attack, on top of fierce criticism over the hostage situation and international criticism over the war in Gaza.
But Bibi has said he is opposed to a permanent cease-fire, even if it means bringing the hostages home – contending that it would only be a matter of time before Hamas attacked again. The current negotiations are reportedly for a limited cease-fire.
It’s complicated. Recent polling paints a complex picture in terms of how Israelis feel about the war – they’re angry at the people charged with protecting them – the ones running the war – but strongly support the fight against Hamas.
One recent poll from Tel Aviv University’s Peace Index showed most Israelis (53%) think the government has “no clear goals” in the war, but it also found that a large majority of the Jewish public think the IDF uses adequate or too little force in Gaza and 88% believe the extent of Palestinian casualties is justified – even as the international community increasingly criticizes Israel over the rising death toll. But the poll also found the Jewish public is relatively split on whether the government should prioritize eliminating Hamas at all costs (50%) or getting the hostages returned in any way possible (48%).
Still, one thing is clear: The Israeli public overwhelmingly disapproves of Netanyahu, with only 15% wanting him to stay in power after the war, according to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute. And many seem to believe that Bibi views the war with Hamas as a political lifeline. A recent Channel 13 survey found 53% of Israelis believe Netanyahu’s wartime decisions are primarily motivated by personal interest.
“There’s a weird kind of paradox or conflict between the support that the war effort has – the legitimacy and consensus around wanting to remove Hamas – but then there's also consensus that Netanyahu has to go. Nobody trusts him,” says Zonszein, adding, “Everybody thinks that he's just dragging this out because it keeps him in power.”
Wartime elections? It’s becoming increasingly clear that Netanyahu’s goal of eliminating Hamas is “not feasible,” says Zonszein, and members of Bibi’s war cabinet have begun to openly challenge him on this.
Gadi Eisenkot, a war cabinet minister and former chief of staff of the IDF, recently said that discussions of destroying Hamas amount to “tall tales.” Eisenkot, whose son was killed in Gaza in December, said that elections should be held in the coming months.
Dozens of ex-top national security officials on Friday sent a letter to Israel’s president and speaker of parliament that pushed for elections and Netanyahu’s removal – referring to him as an “existential” threat to Israel.
In the end, rising public anger over the lack of movement on bringing the hostages home could be what brings Bibi down. Though it would be a “crazy scenario,” says Zonszein, for Israelis to go to the polls amid what is “probably the most decisive war Israel's had since its founding,” if a hostage deal isn’t reached in soon, “the pressure to have an election will increase.”
But a lot has to happen for elections to occur, and if there is a deal that brings the hostages home, it’s difficult to say what that would mean for Netanyahu’s political future.
“It seems like the only clear victory that he can get at this point is getting all the hostages back,” says Zonszein, but if this involves stopping the war and releasing Palestinian prisoners, it could trigger far-right members of his coalition to leave – putting Bibi in a precarious position.
But getting hostages released “would definitely be a huge relief and a huge win for Israel,” Zonszein adds, which has been “fighting with really no results so far.”
An instructor performs a demonstration during a training session at a shooting range in Kfar Saba, Israel
Gunned Down, Gunned Up, Again
As news broke last night of the horrific mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine, where at least 18 people have been killed, I happened to be talking about guns with an old friend from Israel.
As the Israel-Hamas war rages on, my friend has joined a local security detail where he and other volunteers patrol their local streets at night. Hundreds of these new security units – they are essentially militias – are springing up as Israelis of all ages (my friend is in his early 60s) rush to protect their country. You might think this civic volunteerism is a positive sign, but my friend, a former politician, had a strikingly different view.
“I’m not sure if this is a sign of strength or a sign of weakness in our country,” he said. “After all, it should be the job of police and the government to keep people safe, but no one trusts the government to do that anymore, so they are doing it themselves.” It is an interesting question: Is gun ownership a metric of trust in government?
A recent poll from the Israel Democracy Institute shows that only 20% of Israelis and 7.5% of Arab Israelis trust the Netanyahu government. That lack of trust, intensified by the colossal Oct. 7 security failure, has led to a spike in militias and in Israelis buying guns.
You might think Israel has lax gun laws given that it has mandatory military service for most people, but actually, there are rigorous protections. There is no US-style Second Amendment right, and permits and checks are required. Still, it’s not hard to get a gun permit, and even before the Oct. 7 attack, the Netanyahu government was seeking to loosen the rules. Now that looks to be accelerating.
The instinctive rush to bear arms in the wake of an attack is understandable, but it can have long-term consequences, as the US knows all too well. The idea after the American Revolution was that armed citizens could save the country from tyranny. Yet, gun-toting Americans pose other grave dangers: The Maine tragedy was the 565th mass shooting in the US this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive. The renewed debate over gun control will likely, as ever, stall. Why? Lack of trust in government is a key factor.
A recent Pew Research study showed that less than 20% of Americans trust the US government, among the lowest numbers seen since polling began in 1958.
The same lack of trust is true in the UK and increasingly so in Canada as well, which makes combatting big issues, like gun violence or, say, a pandemic, harder to coordinate.
Just this week in Canada, the official opposition, which is polling way ahead of Trudeau’s government, put forward an anti-vaccine mandate bill to stop future governments from forcing federal workers and travelers to take a vaccine. Even though the measure was defeated, it is a sign that a huge part of the country does not trust the government to protect it from disease. What will it mean for a future pandemic?
Trust is something any government needs to build. That requires transparency, effective policies, and, at a bare minimum, doing its job to protect citizens’ rights and their security. If you lose those, garnering support for any other policy – health, climate, education – becomes a helluva lot harder. An armed-up, amped-up, distrustful population doesn’t make for social cohesion.
It’s also a sign of the dangers of short-term, impulsive political thinking, the hallmark of so many crises. One result, as my friend wisely pointed out, is not realizing that sometimes overt signs of strength – an armed citizenry, for example – can actually be signs of weakness. It is the very point facing Israel’s entire strategy in Gaza.
Understandably stung by the Oct. 7 terror attack, Benjamin Netanyahu has launched a massive counterattack to wipe out Hamas, but that has come with the collective punishing of the people of Gaza and, soon, a ground offensive. What is his long-term strategic goal for a post-Hamas Gaza? Who will govern it? How can the hostages be rescued? All of these questions remain dangerously unclear.
Israel’s prime minister is clearly trying to reestablish the doctrine of deterrence – showing the region that attacking the Jewish state will lead to massive consequences – but then what? Where does that lead in terms of a two-state solution and some kind of peace? No one in Israel, let alone outside of it, trusts Netanyahu to get there anymore.
Over-indexing on deterrence today can mean under-indexing on security tomorrow.
That is one lesson from Israel for the US and Canada. Distrust in government makes societies most vulnerable not only to potential threats but to the urgent need to respond effectively to them. We all just saw this over the past few weeks in the US, where distrust among Republicans led to chaos in electing a House Speaker, jeopardizing everything from the functioning of the government to aid to Ukraine.
The hunt for solutions to dangerous threats keeps getting harder, especially when you don’t trust the hunter.Israeli soldiers carry the body of a victim of an attack by militants from Gaza at Kibbutz Kfar Aza, in southern Israel.
Biden on Hamas attacks: “This was an act of sheer evil”
US President Joe Biden on Tuesday did not mince his words when he gave his second address about the Hamas terror attacks in Israel.
“The brutality of Hamas’ bloodthirstiness brings to mind the worst rampages of ISIS,” he said, adding that he told Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu that “if the United States experienced what Israel is experiencing, our response would be swift, decisive, and overwhelming.”
The aim was to show Israel’s enemies that there is little daylight between the US and Israel, and, crucially, to warn those who might be seeking to join the conflict – like Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon – not to dare. This comes after a barrage of rockets was fired at Israel from Lebanon on Tuesday, while Hamas rockets continued to rain down on southern and central Israel, including Tel Aviv, the most populous city.
After emphasizing that Hamas’ actions are a threat to the free world – and reminding viewers that the US has deployed its USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier – the largest warship in the world – to the Eastern Mediterranean as a deterrent, Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen vowed to hit Israel with missiles if the US gets involved.
What’s more, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who flanked Biden during Tuesday’s address along with Vice President Kamala Harris, will head to Israel on Wednesday to meet with Israeli leadership.
Biden also confirmed that Americans are among those taken hostage by Hamas in Gaza and said Washington would ramp up aid to the Jewish State, including the delivery of Iron Dome missile interceptors, which are used to destroy incoming rockets.
The latest from the ground. The death toll in Israel has surpassed 1,200 since Hamas launched a series of massacres against southern Israeli towns on Saturday. As the Israeli military and ZAKA – Israel’s identification, extraction, and rescue squads – comb through kibbutzim and communities, they announced on Tuesday that 40 infants had been murdered on one kibbutz alone – including some gruesome beheadings.
Israel says that 156 soldiers were slain in the rampage, while the rest of the victims are civilians.
As Israel recovers bodies from the south, sporadic fighting with Hamas militants who remain in Israel has also broken out.
Meanwhile, the Israeli air campaign in Gaza continues, with Israel targeting Hamas facilities and personnel. In the densely populated Gaza Strip, Hamas fighters have been killed along with many civilians. The Palestinian death toll has surpassed 2,500, including 1,500 Hamas militants killed inside Israel after they waged Saturday’s attacks. The death toll inside Gaza is 1,055, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, and about two-thirds of these deaths are thought to be Hamas militants, according to David Makovsky of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy.
Israel has also placed the coastal enclave under a blockade, cutting off water, food and fuel shipments, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.
Israel, for its part, will soon launch a ground offensive that could drag on for months. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said to Israeli troops on Tuesday: “I have released all the restraints, we have [regained] control of the area, and we are moving to a full offense.”
“Whoever comes to decapitate, murder women, Holocaust survivors — we will eliminate him with all our might, and without compromise.”
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Eritrean asylum seekers clash with police during a demonstration in Tel Aviv.
Eritrean riot fuels Bibi backlash
Over 150 people were injured, eight seriously, during violent clashes between hundreds of Eritrean migrants in Tel Aviv, Israel, over the weekend. Protesters breached police barriers, smashing storefronts, car windows, and an event set-up at the Eritrean embassy. Riot police responded with tear gas and stun grenades, and at least 30 officers were injured in battles with demonstrators. Thirty-nine suspects, including some found to be carrying weapons, tear gas, and an electrical stun gun, were arrested.
The rioters wanted to shut down a celebration of the rule of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, 77, a vicious autocrat who has governed the country since it became independent in 1993. Eritrea, sometimes called “the North Korea of Africa," holds no elections, has no political parties or independent courts, restricts free speech and the press, and compels military service and forced labor. These conditions continue to spur Eritreans to flee; nearly 18,000 now call Israel home, after arriving illegally through Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.
Even before this weekend’s shocking violence, however, Eritreans in Israel faced limited sympathy. The current government considers them “illegal job migrants,” not refugees. Former Interior Minister Eli Yishai was quoted as saying that he wanted to make their lives “so miserable that they would want to leave.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called them a threat to Israeli national security and “our national identity.”
The violence has now given Netanyahu grounds to act on these sentiments. On Sunday, he announced that 1,000 people supportive of the Eritrean regime would be deported and ordered ministers to draw up a plan to remove all African migrants from Israel. Right-wing politicians have chimed in their support, and Bibi may also use the situation to bolster his much-criticized Supreme Court reforms, since the court had previously stymied government attempts to deport illegal migrants. It looks like Eritreans seeking to escape tyranny back home may become political pawns in their adopted land.