Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Who are the biggest losers from Biden’s collapsing candidacy?
Joe Biden thinks he’s digging in, but in reality, he’s only digging down. And as usual, the longer this goes on the worse it gets.
It’s now been two weeks since his cadaverous, confused performance at the presidential debate, and the crisis surrounding his candidacy isn’t just getting graver, it’s getting weirder.
After all, we are used to the other guy being the luminously spray-tanned leader who listens only to his family, attacks “elites,” distrusts the polls, and calls up cable news shows to rant about how he is the only person who can save America.
Biden and his staff are trying everything they can to shape the narrative that he’s still vigorous and viable – more interviews, another speech, another memo. At last night’s NATO press conference, he may have managed, for the time being, to dispel some of the biggest concerns about his neurological health.
But the polls are still clear. He is trailing even a deeply unpopular and criminally convicted Trump. A majority of Democrats now want Biden to step aside. The leaks about Democrat concern are turning into small floods. Some of those are from within the House, others from within the White House. Major donors and celebrity backers have begun pulling the plug.
Slowly, and then all at once, is how dams break. In this case, the sooner the better because there are some important people who have work to do to restore their credibility after all of this.
Chief among them, of course, is Biden himself. He may really believe he’s still that scrappy ol’ kid from Scranton, dusting himself off for one last comeback – but the game is up: If this is a film, it’s not “Rocky II,” it’s “Weekend at Bernie’s.”
I don’t pretend to know if another ticket – probably Kamala Harris with a well-chosen Veep – would be a lock to beat Donald Trump. But it seems clear that Biden’s already weak poll numbers have little room to grow.
Every gaffe, leak, or stumble is only downside, particularly now that doubts have been clearly planted. What seems clear, at a minimum, is that Biden is at his ceiling, while anyone else is probably not. A big difference in an election that is likely to be very tight.
A wise Biden can take the next few days to arrange a graceful – and gracious – exit from his candidacy that preserves his ability to help, rather than hinder, whoever succeeds him.
In a way, his unexpectedly strong showing at the NATO presser sets him up to exit with more dignity – on his terms, as an aging leader, judiciously stepping aside for the good of the country, rather than as a humiliated grandparent forced to hand over his keys. There is certainly a good speech to be written that enables him to do this. And we know he performs well with teleprompters.
The second big loser in all of this is the Democratic Party itself. For three years, we’ve been told two things: That if Trump wins, American democracy is over, and that Biden is vigorous, coherent, and ready to do the job of defending our republic.
But now we know the second thing is untrue – or at least appears untrue to enough voters that it’s a political fact. And that leaves us questioning whether the party really believes the first thing either.
In other words, you want me to believe that this could be the final fight for democracy, and you’re sending in a man visibly tired by the job. If he can’t do fundraisers later than 8 p.m., how’s he gonna work later than 2027?
Ushering Biden aside now would give Democrats a fresh surge of enthusiasm and interest – upstaging the RNC next week would be a media coup of Trumpian proportions.
But it would also be a chance to reset their narrative and credibility. Instead of trying to persuade unenthusiastic voters to simply shove an ailing man across the line in four months for the sake of “democracy,” they can lay out a vision of governing for the next four years. Above all, they could suddenly be the party that is not running one of the two men who most Americans now find “embarrassing.”
Lastly, “the media.” I use that term in quotations because the various print, cable, and social media sources do not constitute “a media.” But this episode has nevertheless damaged people’s already low trust in mainstream outlets.
On the one hand, Biden critics say mainstreamers have displayed at best an unseemly lack of curiosity about the president’s health, and at worst an inclination to actively protect him from scrutiny on this subject. It’s true that the Biden White House has been unusually opaque, but in principle that should have invited more scrutiny, not less. And clips of mainstream press shooting down questions about Biden’s gaffes as “right-wing” propaganda or “fake news” have not aged well.
Meanwhile, on the other side, some big Biden defenders now feel – in an odd, through-the-looking-glass moment – that “the media” is unfairly attacking their candidate, cynically turning public opinion against him without focusing enough on the other guy’s weaknesses. I find it odd to suggest that somehow the mainstream media hasn’t done enough to highlight Trump’s shortcomings, but these are strange times.
The good news, again, is that Biden, the Democrats, and the media all have a chance to reset, reflect, and refocus.
But with just a few months before the election, there isn’t much time. They have to stop digging down and start digging out. Over to you, Mr. President.
And now, over to you, readers! Should Biden step aside? Has the press done a bad job? Are Democrats in trouble? Let us know what you think here. Include your name and where you’re writing from, and we may run your response in an upcoming edition of our popular newsletter, GZERO Daily.U.S. President Joe Biden boards Air Force One.
What’s Biden doing in Asia?
US President Joe Biden will head to Asia on Thursday, making two crucial diplomatic stops in India and Vietnam.
Why India? Biden will visit India – or should we say “Bharat” – for the G20 summit, which will be attended by a host of global heavyweights, though notably not China’s Xi Jinping or Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Biden’s agenda will largely focus on World Bank reform in hopes that countries in the Global South come to see Western-led lending organizations as preferable to Chinese-driven institutions.
Meanwhile, as was the case with previous gatherings in recent months, India’s PM Narendra Modi will likely try to shift the conversation away from Ukraine to cover issues that, he says, are of greater importance to countries in the Global South. (For instance, Modi recently proposed that the African Union be made a full member of the G20.)
Biden will then head to Vietnam as Washington seeks closer ties with Hanoi in a bid to build a bulwark against China in the Asia Pacific.
Hanoi, which also enjoys warmish ties with Beijing despite an ongoing maritime dispute, is keen to elevate relations with the US, its largest export market. Indeed, Vietnam has benefited from the deepening trade row between Washington and Beijing, having emerged as an alternative source of supply for US markets.
China, unsurprisingly, is unimpressed, organizing its own high-level visit to Vietnam this week in a bid to shore up “political trust.”US President Joe Biden exits off of Air Force.
What We’re Watching: Dems take aim at Biden, them’s the breaks, BoJo; Japan takes to the polls
Are Dems done with Biden?
The US president’s party usually takes a thrashing in midterm elections, whether Republican or Democrat. But as November’s midterms approach, Democrats look set to take a greater-than-usual hit. (Republicans, for their part, only need to gain five seats to gain control of the House of Representatives and one seat to flip the Senate.) Crucially, it’s not only disaffected independents and middle-of-the-road suburban voters feeling the burn of inflation and losing patience with President Biden. Congressional Dems and party officials are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with the commander-in-chief’s lackluster governing style and legislative losses – as well as his failure to use the power of the presidency to better appeal to voters. Indeed, many Dems are saying (mostly off-the-record) that they think fresh blood is needed to guide the party to the 2024 election. But who? VP Kamala Harris is wildly unpopular and has had a series of mishaps over the past 18 months. If Donald Trump decides to run again, or if another contender uses his playbook in 2024, are any Democrats capable of winning? The left appears to be backed into a corner, and many analysts anticipate a bloodbath come November.
No love lost for Boris Johnson
When all was done and dusted, it was a pretty undignified departure for British PM Boris Johnson, who waited until dozens of Tory MPs resigned before he agreed to step down as party leader, though he says he’ll stay on as caretaker PM until a new leader is tapped. Several Tories will now fight it out for the top job, a process that could take months. First, PM wannabees will need eight colleagues to “nominate” them before Tory MPs cast a series of votes, narrowing the field to two candidates. Conservative Party members then vote – and voila, Britain gets a new PM by the fall. Crucially, there would be no reason to hold an election before May 2024 unless the new PM wants to consolidate their mandate as Johnson did in 2019. Meanwhile, an ugly Tory leadership race could boost the Labor Party’s political fortunes. Whoever takes the helm has their work cut out for them: the British economy is teetering and has the highest inflation rate of any G7 nation. Internationally, the new PM may try to revive relations with European partners, particularly France’s Emmanuel Macron, which deteriorated amid painstaking Brexit negotiations. And as for Johnson’s political future? Well, it’s unclear whether he can even keep his own parliamentary seat in the next vote.
Will Japan rock the vote?
Japan will vote on Sunday for the upper house of parliament, where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party hopes to increase its number of seats and even win an outright majority. That would be a huge boost for PM Fumio Kishida, a bookish former banker and ex-foreign minister who took over less than a year ago from the lackluster Yoshihide Suga. Just weeks ago, Kishida's approval rating was soaring, driven by support for his decisive reversal of traditionally cautious foreign and energy policies in response to Russia's war in Ukraine. He's lost some momentum recently as Japanese consumers grow increasingly wary of rising prices. Inflation hits especially hard here; the country experienced the opposite phenomenon — deflation — for two decades, during which most workers didn’t get a raise. The LDP, which has governed Japan for most of its postwar history, will likely expand its parliamentary majority — perhaps enough to pass structural reforms, such as rewriting the country's pacifist constitution (mainly out of fear of China). If that happens, Japan could deploy military forces abroad, and Kishida will have succeeded where his old boss, former PM Shinzo Abe, failed.U.S. President Joe Biden
Biden’s State of the Union: Big challenges and potential opportunities
President Joe Biden's speechwriters have been busy. They likely scrapped and rewrote much of his State of the Union address after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The annual address, to be delivered at the US Capitol on Tuesday night, is usually an opportunity for the president to lay out a political vision, laced with a healthy dose of cheery optimism.
But Biden will rise to the podium against the backdrop of relentless bad news. Ahead of his first SOTU, what issues are plaguing Biden’s presidency and how might he try to spin them in his favor?
COVID. After a brutal start to the new year, the pandemic seems to be on the wane in America. Hospitalizations have plunged 44% over the past two weeks, and cases are plummeting nationwide.
What’s more, the CDC just eased masking requirements for 70% of the country, including for school students. This is good timing for Biden, who will try to pitch his address to independents and moderate “Never Trump” Republicans, many of whom have been pushing hard for the easing of pandemic restrictions, particularly for kids.
Ukraine. For President Biden, who long served on the Senate Committee for Foreign Relations, the standoff with Russia has presented an opportunity to showcase his statesman bonafides and unify the transatlantic alliance.
What’s more, in getting European allies and other global partners to swiftly agree to impose crippling economic sanctions on Russia, Biden has managed to inspire a rare bit of bipartisan common ground (the contrarian wing of the GOP not withstanding). Thus far, US voters seem impressed: Nearly half of all voters approve of Biden’s handling of the crisis, according to a new Morning Consult poll. That’s a significant change from perceptions of Biden’s (poor) handling of the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal last summer.
Inflation. Persistent inflation has been a massive thorn in Biden’s side in recent months, distracting from any other legislative or political gains. Inflation — which reached a 40-year high in recent weeks — has threatened to completely derail Biden and the Democratic Party ahead of midterm elections this November. Indeed, Biden will not be able to gloss over the fact that after two years of pandemic pain, trumped up prices are putting enormous pressure on consumers, adding as much as $276 to the average household’s monthly living expenses, according to a recent study.
But – and it’s a big but – it is also possible that the war in Ukraine – and potential disruptions to global supply chains as a result of Western sanctions on Russian assets – could allow Biden to pin inflation, if it persists at its current clip, on broader geopolitical turmoil. That could be a reasonable fallback position for the White House, particularly after 46% of polled Americans recently said that they supported tough sanctions on Russia even if it meant higher prices at home.
Legislation. Come Tuesday, Biden won’t have many recent legislative wins to gloat about. His Build Back Better Act, a mélange of progressive priorities, is dead in the water because of holdouts within his own party. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ thin majority in Congress has meant that Biden’s proposed legislative reform on voting rights and gun laws remain a pipe dream.
Democrats and Republicans will be watching Biden’s address closely — as will an increasingly erratic Vladimir Putin.
The politics of US crime: Perception vs reality
A recent spate of violent crimes in New York City has made national headlines. Since Eric Adams was sworn in four weeks ago as mayor of America’s most populous city, violence on the streets — and the subways — has again become a major political focus. Things got even more heated this week, when two young cops were killed while responding to a domestic dispute in Harlem.
Crime is not only a dominant political issue in New York. It also resonates more broadly with American voters worried over increased lawlessness and unrest. Indeed, crime is already shaping up to be a wedge issue as Republicans vie to win control of the US Congress this November.
What’s causing the uptick in crime? America has experienced a crime wave since the pandemic started. Violent crimes – murder, robberies, assault, and rape – were up 3 percent in 2020, while the national murder rate spiked by 25 percent from the previous year. Still, this comes as the national crime rate has dropped significantly since the 1990s.
Pandemic-induced instability is responsible, in large part, for pushing crime rates up in big cities like Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. For months, lockdowns and layoffs kept vulnerable youth and young adults out of productive work and school environments, while also putting huge economic pressures on already-stretched families.
What’s more, general insecurity created by the public health crisis — including a change in policing practices — caused not only a run on toilet paper, but also on guns. An estimated 20 million guns were sold in the US in 2020, likely contributing to a rise in urban gun violence. Domestic violence also soared after lockdown orders were enforced in March 2020, increasing 8.1 percent from pre-pandemic levels.
But politically, the perception of crime is often more consequential than crime statistics.
Polls show that most voters think that crime is a major issue. A whopping 58 percent of Americans surveyed by Ipsos think the situation is worse now than in the early 1990s, when nationwide violence prompted Congress to pass the biggest crime bill in US history.
Anxieties about crime, stability, and disorder could also be linked to broader concerns about the state of the US economy. Inflation is at a four-decade high, leading to a general sense of malaise among the electorate. Revealingly, just 21 percent of Americans now say that they are satisfied with the way things are headed in the country.
Crime has long been a wedge issue in US politics. Richard Nixon famously ran on a law-and-order platform in 1968, when fear of anarchy and racial unrest was pronounced. More recently, Donald Trump made tackling crime a cornerstone of his presidency, vowing to end “American carnage.”
In politics, timing is everything. The perception that Biden has not handled public safety well is a boon for Republicans ahead of the November midterms. Indeed, some Republicans are already drawing on people’s anxieties about lawlessness to try and win back middle-class voters in the suburbs — the new political battleground.
Historical precedent is also on the GOP’s side: for decades, voters have seen Republicans as more adept at handling crime. Meanwhile, recent attempts by the left flank of the Democratic Party to address systemic racism by slashing the police budget — using the slogan “defund the police” — has not resonated with the majority of Americans, including swing suburban voters who live in areas where public safety is perceived to be deteriorating.
Crime might be up somewhat in urban areas. But what matters more is that most Americans think things are dire – and they don’t trust current leadership to handle the disorder.
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on Afghanistan during a speech in the State Dining Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., August 31, 2021.
A year of Biden
Joe Biden’s first year as US president included two major historic accomplishments and a series of (often bitter) disappointments that has his party headed toward likely defeat in November’s midterm elections. Biden’s own political future is increasingly uncertain.
A caveat: presidents are never judged fairly. Credit is given and blame assigned for events and circumstances well beyond their control. But the policy and political consequences of their perceived successes and failures are real. They matter for both the future direction of the country they lead and the political fortunes of their parties.
Falling numbers
Begin with voters. By historical standards, Biden entered office with modest popularity. He opened at about 55 percent in composites of various surveys and steadily fell to a current level below 42 percent. It’s a downward spiral that leaves him barely more popular than Donald Trump was after his first year in office.
A new poll shows that just 28 percent of respondents would like Biden to run for re-election in 2024, a number that suggests that, unlike Trump, Biden is hemorrhaging support from within his own party.
Accomplishments
Few Republicans and a falling number of Biden’s fellow Democrats credit him for the two major accomplishments of his presidency: a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package, which passed Congress in March, and a bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that became law in November. These investments stand with the largest legislative achievements of the Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson administrations, both of which benefited from much larger congressional majorities than Biden is ever likely to have.
Failures
The list of Biden’s perceived failures is much longer. After promising in July that Americans were “closer than ever to declaring our independence” from COVID, the nation now faces a third wave of coronavirus infections. Biden has greatly expanded the availability of COVID tests and vaccines — and he can’t be blamed for Republican aversion to vaccines and masks — but there’s little question he overpromised on an end to the pandemic.
The US economy has posted strong growth numbers, unemployment has fallen sharply since the pandemic’s early days, and US stock indexes reached record highs in December. But a variety of foreseeable factors have produced the highest inflation numbers since the 1980s, a problem that will further disrupt supply chains, cost consumers, and dampen expectations for continued growth.
On immigration policy, the Biden White House was startlingly unprepared for the surge of migrants that was sure to arrive with the end of the “tough on immigration” Trump presidency and periods of pandemic easing.
On foreign policy, Iran’s new hardline government has so far balked at Biden’s invitation to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan left US soldiers dead and American friends behind.
Tests ahead
The most immediate test ahead comes from the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin has ordered more than enough troops to Russia’s border with Ukraine to pose a credible threat of military aggression. He has demanded guarantees from NATO that would redesign the security architecture of Europe.
During a Wednesday press conference, Biden warned that Russia would pay a “stiff price” following a Russian invasion of Ukraine. He can back up that threat with unusually harsh sanctions and US-made weapons to Ukrainian troops.
But he also said that a “minor incursion” by Russia would leave NATO members “to fight about what to do and not do.” Ukraine’s government was appalled, and the White House was forced to issue a clarification. Biden has since done some damage control.
But Biden’s greatest political failure has been his inability to lead haggling factions within the Democratic Party toward compromises that might have brought more of the investment and reforms that he and members of his party have promised for years.
Central to the Democratic Party’s message to Americans is that government can (and should) do big things to strengthen the nation and its people. When Democrats hold the White House and both houses of Congress, their voters expect them to deliver on promises to strengthen the social safety net, reform immigration policy, protect voting rights, and expand individual liberties for Americans who have historically faced various forms of discrimination.
When the leader of the Democratic Party, with Democratic majorities in Congress, fails to rally his own lawmakers toward the political deals needed to advance the party’s goals, he’s failing in his most important job — and giving voters fewer reasons to support him or his party when they next go to the polls.
Joe Biden's presidency: biggest surprises, successes and mistakes so far
What surprised Jane Harman, former US Congresswoman (D-CA), most about Joe Biden's presidency? "Number one, he's much more hands-on as a leader than I fully understood. It's coming out now how he runs his meetings and what he does. But number two, and I love this, he's really enjoying the job." Harman, a nine-term member of Congress who served for decades on the major security committees in the House of Representatives, notes that Biden's stint as Vice President was no guarantee of how he would perform. "I think sitting behind that desk, and having the buck stop with him is very different. And I think he fills out the job very well."
In an interview with Ian Bremmer, Harman says Biden has a dimension that none of his four predecessors had, because of his experience in Congress and in foreign policy. She also shares her perspective on Biden's biggest successes as well as some mistakes he's made.