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US election: GOP could win a Trump-led sweep
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
It's election night in America. And a slightly unexpected result tonight, with the election returns coming back very strong for President Donald Trump. He may actually end up winning the national popular vote, which was not, I think, on anyone's bingo card, really.
Big surprise for Trump has been a surge in rural support where the Trump coalition showed up to vote for him. Meanwhile, Harris has somewhat underperformed in urban areas, and while she did have a pretty good showing with women voters, it wasn't enough to keep her ahead of Trump, at least in the results as we know them tonight.
Harris has been underperforming down-ballot Democrats generally, which has kept the Democrats competitive in the House, which could lead to an unusual situation where all three of the main political bodies in the United States, the White House, the House, and the Senate, flip in the same election. The Senate is in the bag for Republicans. They're going to have somewhere between 52 and 55 seats, it looks like. And Trump is probably the favorite to win in the Electoral College.
The House outcome we may not know in the next 24 hours. Some of the House seats that really matter in determining the majority, which is very close, are slow to count. But right now, it does look like Democrats have some momentum with a couple of Republicans losing key seats.
So stay tuned for more of what we're watching this week in US politics.
2024 US election: What to look out for
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
This is what we're watching this week in US politics. It is, at long last, election week. The US has one of the longest most exhausting presidential election cycles in the world. That basically begins two years before general Election Day. And Tuesday of this week, it all comes to a conclusion. It's unlikely that we will know the results of the election on Tuesday night, although if Harris is significantly ahead in the early counting states, like North Carolina, that's going to be a strong signal that she's probably winning the overall electoral college. Seven key swing states to watch. Trump looks like he has the advantage in Arizona and Nevada. And the election, like it did in 2016, could potentially come down to the three so-called Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. On election night, Wisconsin and Michigan are likely to be known, but possibly not till late in the night. They were called for Biden late in the night on 2020.
Pennsylvania is the real outlier when it comes to counting votes, and this is because Pennsylvania does not count its early ballots until the day of the election, which means that the people who vote in person in Pennsylvania, who tend to be Republicans, we'll know where they are when the polls close in the evening, East Coast time, on Tuesday night. But then overnight, you expect to see what's been called the 'blue shift,' which is as those early and absentee ballots get counted, which are primarily democratic, you will see Harris's vote share start to climb. So if the outcome of the race is not known because the outcome in North Carolina is ambiguous or Trump is leading, and there's no clear winner in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that night, or it looks like a close race, officially calling this race could drag on until much later in the week, just exactly what happened in 2020. Now, President Trump tried to exploit that gap in 2020 by saying he clearly had won in Pennsylvania, and all these late-breaking votes were all just fraudulent, which isn't true, but that's what he claimed. And that could happen again this cycle.
The only situation in which we would get a genuinely ambiguous outcome, where we wouldn't know the outcome for weeks at a time, is if, one, there's evidence of widespread massive election fraud, which has not been the case at any time in recent US history and is a very low probability event. Or if it's such a close race in one of the key swing states, like Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Georgia, where we don't actually know the winner because the margins are within several hundred votes. There is precedent for state-wide elections being overturned in recent US history, but typically, those elections come down to about 500 votes. There's been 31 recounts from the year 2000 before the 2020 presidential election, three were overturned because the margin was so incredibly close. And so, this is a very, very rare event, and it's unlikely to play out in this election cycle, but it could. You never know.
The polls are suggesting this is a very close race. So stay tuned for more watching this election week, and hope you find a nice, comfortable place to watch the election results because it could take a long time to count these ballots.
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Defining Kamala Harris at DNC 2024
From Chicago's United Center on the final night of the Democratic National Convention, Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, recaps the key takeaways from the DNC.
We're here in Chicago wrapping up the Democratic National Convention for 2024. You can see the balloons are falling behind us, and the benediction is going on as folks are starting to file out of the convention hall into what I think are going to be long lines to get home.
So a couple of key themes that jumped out over the four days of the convention. One was, of course, to introduce and define Kamala Harris, and what they sort of did was embrace her record as a prosecutor, giving her this persona as a loving family member, but a tough, no-nonsense person that you don't want to mess with. And that was a theme that was repeated over and over again in testimonials from her family and friends, and also a message pretty directly given by her.
Second, of course, they wanted to create a contrast with Trump, and the way they did that was to attack his character over and over again, talking about how, “They wouldn't trust him to move their furniture,” a really great line by Senator Elizabeth Warren, and making a contrast about the schemes and frauds and criminal convictions that are in his background versus, again, Kamala Harris's record as a prosecutor, standing up for a little guy.
And then, of course, another big theme, especially one that came out on day four tonight, was to define the Democratic Party as the party of freedom and the future of the USA. A lot of flags waving in the audience. There was an extended section speaking about the military and military strength, right in prime time. Clearly, Democrats trying to set themselves out to be the party that can defend America.
I would say three groups were really targeted over the course of the convention. The first is union members. There was a lot of shout-outs to organized labor, who are, of course, a key Democratic constituent. Black voters who are going to be absolutely critical to Kamala Harris' ability to win, particularly if they want to compete in Georgia and North Carolina. And then, Republicans, gettable on the fence Republican-leaning independents who don't like Trump all that much and want to feel comfortable voting for Kamala Harris. Very clear themes directed to those three groups throughout the week.
Overall, probably a pretty successful convention. Certainly played well here in the convention hall, but of course, it's how it plays on TV and social media that really matters.
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DNC unites around 3 key themes
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from the DNC in Chicago.
What we're watching in US Politics: The running themes at the Democratic National Convention.
I'm here in Chicago for the third night of the Democratic National Convention, where Tim Walz, the vice presidential nominee, just spoke this evening at the United Center.
A couple of key themes have jumped out to me so far in this convention. The first is the attempt to turn the focus on Donald Trump thinking only of himself. This is something that you heard Pete Buttigieg talk about, it's something you heard Bill Clinton talk about, and it seems like this is an emerging major theme for Democrats to hit on, is that Donald Trump doesn't actually care about America all that much. He cares about himself. So, that's going to be one thing you hear about a lot going forward.
The second thing is the Democrats trying to reclaim "freedom" as a concept and as a term that actually it fits more with their values than what they say are Republican values. And this has been something that Tim Walz has talked a lot about, you heard Michelle Obama talk about it, and you heard Oprah Winfrey talk about it. That freedom is about people being free from the government messing around with what's going on inside their bedrooms or what's going on inside their doctor's offices, obviously references to social policies where Democrats and Republicans have large differences; and attempting to flip the script on several decades of political rhetoric about who actually is the party of freedom. So, that's another thing you'd expect to hear a lot about in the coming weeks and months.
The third big theme of this convention so far has been celebrating Kamala Harris's background as a prosecutor. Now, this isn't really something we heard a lot about in the 2020 campaign; perhaps because of the George Floyd riots that were happening at the same time, and the fact that many Democrats were turning openly skeptical of police and policing. But now, fast-forward four years later where crime is a growing issue in the political discourse, and you have a lot of focus on Harris's background as a prosecutor; they talk about her prosecuting transnational drug gangs, her prosecuting people like Donald Trump, who of course has felony convictions now in his background.
So, those are three themes we've heard so far at the Democratic National Convention, and I think those are things we're going to hear a lot of over the next 74 days. On night four, Kamala Harris is set to make her own pitch for why she should be president. And of course, the crowd in Chicago will be euphoric and jubilant listening to her. But the real question here is, do any of these messages resonate with moderate voters that they need to win?
So, thanks for watching. We'll be here tomorrow in Chicago, and we'll see you then.
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Why Project 2025 is getting so much attention at the DNC
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
What we're watching in US Politics: Project 2025 is getting a lot of attention at the DNC, and you're probably going to hear a lot more about it even after the convention in Chicago ends.
You may have heard a lot about Trump’s Project 2025 in this election cycle, and you're probably going to hear a lot more about it in the coming weeks. And one of the reasons these kinds of Democratic activists have spent a lot of time educating the public through paid media and also some sessions they are holding inside about what's in the 2025 platform. And the point they want to make is that the Project 2025, which is a project of The Heritage Foundation, designed to be sort of a governing guide for President Trump and anybody filling out the executive branch agencies in a second Trump term, is also the Trump agenda. Trump himself has, of course, distanced himself from Project 2025, but there's all kinds of overlap between former Trump administration officials and people who are writing this thing, people who are likely to serve in a second Trump administration. Why are the Democrats spending so much time talking about this? Because it's not that popular. The individual items in 2025 don't poll that well, and it's actually become a major liability for President Trump. So much so that the person at the Heritage Foundation who ran the project actually stepped down from his job because it had become such a liability for the Trump campaign, which is not exactly what The Heritage Foundation donors were hoping for when they launched this project. So stay tuned for a lot more on Project 2025. It's going to be a message every night here at the Democratic National Convention, and there's going to be a lot of fodder for attack ads to draw a policy contrast with former President Trump
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DNC Night 2: Obama set to rally support for Harris
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
What we're watching in US Politics: The Democratic National Convention Day 2, where former President Barack Obama is set to speak and rally support for Kamala Harris ahead of her Thursday appearance.
We are here in Chicago on day two of the Democratic National Convention, where tonight, former President Barack Obama is set to speak. Yesterday's, opening day at the convention was all about turning the page on the old guard of the Democratic Party, with Hillary Clinton giving a speech and Joe Biden giving a strong endorsement of Kamala Harris. And today is all about handing that off to her, with Obama, who's considered the Democrat's best speech giver and one of the most exciting figures that unifies the party set to speak tonight in order to send a message of Democratic unity rallying around a Harris. Kind of a quieter day here in Chicago. There are some protests going on related to Gaza that aren't really affecting the proceedings at all.
The big build-up is, of course, leading up to Harris's appearance on Thursday night. So lots of delegate activity, lots of side meetings going on about how to campaign, how to deliver the message the Democrats want to hit on this year. Lots of stuff going on inside the hall focusing on issues of freedom, access to abortion, and the diversity of the Democratic Party on display with a lot, of course, of union representation representing a contrast with former President Donald Trump. So should be an interesting, exciting night as Democrats try to unify around Kamala Harris and make the case to the American people that she is worthy of their vote.
So we'll be here all week. Thanks for watching and stay tuned for more of what we're paying attention to in US politics.
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What Tim Walz adds to Kamala Harris' campaign
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics: Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has chosen her running mate: Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota.
Walz is a moderate to center-left Democrat who has presided over a trifecta in Minnesota, meaning the Democrats have controlled the state legislature for several years now. They have passed several “wins” for progressive policy, liberalizing the state's marijuana laws, expanding gun control, and expanding access to abortion. This has made Walz a popular choice with many progressives. He’s also been endorsed by several labor unions as a good pick for Kamala Harris. In reality, though, he probably doesn’t make that much of a difference in the presidential campaign.
Harris herself is running as, sort of, a generic Democrat. She’s been avoiding media interviews, running a lot of campaign ads, and giving a lot of set speeches where she can basically read off a teleprompter and carefully curate the image that she’s putting forward to the American people as the candidate in what’s actually going to be a truncated campaign of only about 100 days.
Walz probably helps her with that. He looks like a pretty nice guy. He delivers a lot of great attack lines on President Donald Trump that have Democrats excited, but the evidence suggests that vice presidential picks really don't make all that much of difference in presidential campaigns. Usually, it’s the person at the top of the ticket, and that person is Harris. She continues to benefit from a couple of great weeks after Biden stepped aside from the nomination, and this race is starting to look significantly more competitive than it did right after the disastrous debate for Biden.
A couple of interesting watch points coming up: One will be a potential debate between Walz and the significantly younger Republican VP candidate, Sen. JD Vance, and then whether or not Harris and Trump themselves will debate. Probably, Trump wants the debate to happen so that he can disrupt Harris’ momentum.
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Will Kamala Harris’ momentum last in the race against Trump?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics: Kamala Harris is off to a blazing start since replacing Joe Biden as the Democrats' pick for the presidential race, raking in almost $250 million in just one week. The big question: Can she maintain this momentum in the race against Donald Trump?
Joe Biden drops out of the race last Sunday, unexpectedly, as the oldest candidate ever, instantly making Donald Trump the new oldest nominee in American presidential history. Now he's going to have to run against a Democrat who's 19 years younger than he is, and the sitting Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris. She's off to a scorching hot start raising almost $250 million, a quarter of a billion dollars in a single week since Biden announced he was dropping out, and she's picking up a lot of buzz and excitement online.
But the real question is, is her current momentum about Harris? Or, is it just about someone other than Biden? That's really what the rest of this campaign is going to be about. Harris comes in with some strengths that Biden didn't have, namely the fact that three-quarters of the population doesn't think she's too old to be president, but she probably also has some weaknesses where Biden had unique strengths, such as his strength with working-class white voters in the Midwest. On that front, Harris is just kind of an unknown.
We can't really trust what the polls are telling us just yet, because what you'd expect to see after a big event would be a surge in support from Democrats, who are more eager to respond to polls at the moment, so it might be a few weeks before we actually have an understanding of where this race stands in public opinion polling. Then there's the question of Harris herself who hasn't really done much to distinguish herself as vice president and ran a pretty poor presidential primary campaign in 2020 that led to her dropping out and becoming the vice-presidential pick. So is this election going to be about Harris, the person, versus Donald Trump, who Americans know and either love or hate very well? Or is it going to be about Kamala Harris, the meme, running against Donald Trump?
Right now, she's polling as a generic Democrat would, doing two to four points better than Biden would nationally. We don't really have a lot of granularities on what's happening at the swing states, but it looks like this is starting to be a competitive race, and we have to see how Harris holds up once the American people get a better look at her. This is going to happen through her campaign appearances, which will be tight and scripted, but probably the most important event coming up on the election calendar is going to be the debate, where Harris won't have a chance to answer scripted questions or read off a teleprompter and is going to have to face Donald Trump live.
As for Trump, suddenly, this race that was breaking strongly in his favor is now sort of starting to turn against him because of the fact that Kamala Harris now can position herself as the change candidate, and talking about a break from the past, as Trump as the old former president that Americans maybe want to move on from. So very fluid dynamic in the race. Trump is probably still favored, just because he has more paths to victory through the Electoral College, but this could all change drastically over the coming weeks. Thanks for watching, and stay tuned for what we're watching in US politics next week.
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