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Hard Numbers: Kenyan result upheld, Euro gas prices soar, Japanese sour on Kishida, drink beer at Qatar 2022
50.5: Kenya's Supreme Court on Monday upheld the result of last month’s presidential election, won by William Ruto with 50.5% of the vote. His rival Raila Odinga had contested his fifth consecutive loss for the top job, but the court dismissed his claims as a “wild-goose chase.”
400: Dutch one-month natural gas futures — considered a benchmark for Europe — skyrocketed almost 400% year-on-year in early trading Monday after Russia announced an indefinite shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. EU governments are scrambling to help shield their citizens from sky-high electric bills, and Brussels is mulling a bloc-wide cap on gas prices.
41: The disapproval rating of Japan's embattled PM Fumio Kishida reached 41%, the highest level since he took office. Kishida's popularity has nosedived over the ruling party's ties to the controversial Unification Church following Shinzo Abe's assassination and the government’s decision to hold a state funeral for the slain former PM.
3: Following a strong backlash, the organizers of the soccer World Cup in Qatar will allow ticketed fans to drink beer, normally verboten in the Gulf nation. But there's a catch: they can only purchase it from official sponsor Budweiser outside of stadiums three hours before kickoff or one hour after the final whistle — and never during matches.A man scuffles with the security officials before the result of Kenya's presidential election is announced in Nairobi.
What We’re Watching: Kenyan election jitters, Ukraine hits Wagner, Israel strikes near Russian bases
Kenya's new president is … ?
Deputy President William Ruto won Kenya's presidential election with 50.5% of the vote, the electoral commission declared Monday. Still, the process was very messy: authorities initially delayed the announcement amid clashes at the national counting center and accusations of vote rigging from Ruto's rival Raila Odinga. What’s more, four out of the commission's seven members refused to endorse the result over vague fraud claims. So, what happens now? Odinga, who represents the country’s dynastic politics, might contest the result in court, as he did five years ago, when the Supreme Court found so many logistical errors in the presidential election that it forced a rerun. Also, in 2007 more than 1,200 Kenyans were killed following a similarly disputed vote. (Both Ruto and outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta were then taken before the International Criminal Court for inciting violence, but charges against both were later dropped.) All eyes are now on the 77-year-old Odinga, in his fifth and presumably last run for the presidency. Will he risk more unrest and perhaps violence to win at all costs? Such uncertainty doesn't bode well for East Africa's most vibrant democracy. This election “started off as the most transparent and ends up in farce," tweeted political cartoonist Patrick Gathara.
Ukraine hits Wagner Group HQ
On August 8, a pro-Russian journalist working in the Ukrainian town of Popasna in Russian-held territory posted a series of images from his visit to the local headquarters of a Russian mercenary organization known as the Wagner Group. One of those images included a street sign that read Mironovskaya 12, the building’s address. Though the journalist later deleted that image, it appears the Ukrainian military had already seen it. On Sunday, Ukrainian officials claim its forces destroyed that building with the help of a HIMARS, a US-provided artillery rocket system capable of hitting a target precisely up to 43.5 miles away. Pro-Russian journalists have confirmed the hit, though reports of casualties remain sketchy. It’s another high-profile setback for the Wagner Group, believed to be closely linked to the Kremlin through one of Vladimir Putin’s most trusted advisers and to the GRU, the Russian military intelligence agency. Wagner has been active in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and West and Central Africa, sometimes at the invitation of local governments. It has also been accused of war crimes and human rights violations.
Israel strikes too close for Russian comfort in Syria
Syria’s state broadcaster said Monday that three Syrian soldiers were killed in a series of Israeli air strikes on Damascus and south of Tartous province. For years, Israel has been striking targets in Syria in order to hamper Iranian efforts to deliver weapons to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon. But this time was different: Israel hit targets that are very close to Russia’s sole naval base in the Mediterranean, where Russian warships are docked, and to a Russian air base in Latakia province. Moscow, which backs Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad rand largely controls Syrian airspace, has long allowed Israeli warplanes to target Iranian strategic assets there, so long as they don’t interfere with the Kremlin’s strategic interests in the region. Russia has also been willing to cooperate with Israel on these aerial missions in part because it is competing with Iran for dominance inside Syria. But Israeli-Russian ties have been strained in recent months as Israel has sought to offer some support to Ukraine. Indeed, Russia might punish Israel with more limited access to launch strikes against Syria — a move Israel would see as a big threat to its national security interests.Cricket fans, with their faces painted in the Indian and Pakistani national flag colors, ahead of a match between the two countries.
What We’re Watching: Partition 75th anniversary, Kenyan vote count, US-China in Southeast Asia
India & Pakistan turn 75
This year’s Aug. 15 Diamond Jubilee of Partition, when the British Raj split into India and Pakistan, is a complicated affair. India has gained more from independence in 1947 than Pakistan: earlier this summer, the Indian economy crossed the $3.3 trillion mark and officially overtook the UK to become the world’s fifth-largest — a nice touch to celebrate 75 years of independence from its colonial master. But India’s democratic credentials remain under threat by the rise of Hindu nationalism. However, Pakistan’s experiments after Partition — proxy wars, civil war, martial law, and Islamism — brought much suffering to its people. Today, the country is at the verge of another financial crisis and negotiating its 23rd IMF bailout, as well as in talks with its own version of the Taliban. Unfortunately, a growing nuclear arsenal is the only equalizer for the political and economic imbalance between the two countries. But there is still hope yet. After years of making zero progress, India and Pakistan are now involved in a backchannel dialogue, which may bring some normalcy between the old enemies. That, and the cricket, of course: Pakistan has won more games overall against its arch-rival, but never beaten India in a World Cup match.
Kenya's election nailbiter
Six days after Kenya's presidential election, the race between Deputy President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga is still undeclared. As of Monday afternoon in Nairobi, Ruto is ahead by a slim margin with about half of the vote officially counted, while unofficial media tallies that initially put his rival in the lead now also have Ruto winning. Both sides accuse each other of tampering with the process, which is painstakingly slow to avoid past instances of fraud: in 2007, more than 1,200 people were killed in violent clashes across the country after Odinga claimed the election had been stolen, and in 2017 a string of logistical mistakes forced the Supreme Court to annul the result and order a rerun. The result must be announced no later than Tuesday, a full week after the vote. Also, if neither candidate gets more than 50% of the vote and at least 25% of the ballots cast in a minimum of 24 out of Kenya's 27 counties, the presidential election will for the first time go to a runoff before Sept. 8.
Southeast Asia tiptoes on US-China
Over the weekend, the US and Chinese militaries held separate military drills with Southeast Asian partners less than two weeks after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's mega-controversial trip to Taiwan, to which China responded by its biggest-ever show of force around the self-governing island. Chinese fighter jets participated in joint exercises with the Thai air force, while American and Indonesian troops wrapped up their two-week Garuda Shield live-fire drills, which Australia, Japan, and Singapore joined for the first time. The war games come amid heightened tensions in the region over Taiwan: many Southeast Asian countries are now “keeping their head down” to avoid picking sides between Beijing, who they do by far the most trade with, and Washington, which has given them more military aid for decades. No one wants to rock the boat in the region, where more than 10 years ago China and the Philippines — a former US colony that America is treaty-bound to defend — came to the brink of war over a disputed shoal in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, China kicked off Monday another round of military exercises near Taiwan after a group of US lawmakers visited the island the day before.Kenya’s presidential “choice” is 2 flavors of continuity
Kenyans go to the polls Tuesday to elect a successor to term-limited President Uhuru Kenyatta, who’s stepping down after 10 years in East Africa’s economic hub. But their choice is limited to one between Kenyatta’s longtime enemy-turned-ally, or the president’s own VP, who’s running against Kenyatta’s record (and therefore his own).
Huh? Please explain. The pro-administration candidate is opposition leader Raila Odinga, who's running for president for the fifth time. He lost the last two elections to Kenyatta. But in 2018, the two patched things up with a very public handshake, leaving Deputy President William Ruto as the odd man out.
Dynasty vs. “hustler.”Odinga, the scion of a famous political dynasty, is pitching himself as "Baba" (father) of the nation. He vows to give affordable healthcare to all Kenyans and a $50 monthly stipend to poor people.
For his part, Ruto — a former chicken vendor who claims he didn't own a pair of shoes until he was 15 — says he'll be the champion of the poor (although now he’s a wealthy landowner). Still, the 55-year-old promises to support young Kenyan “hustlers,” and being the first candidate not from a political family with a shot at winning the top job is nothing to sneeze at.
The two, however, have serious Kenyatta baggage. "Both men are struggling to disassociate themselves from the current administration," says Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey.
Indeed, the outgoing president has a mixed record: infrastructure development boomed on his watch, but so did graft and debt. Earlier this year, the Supreme Court nixed his plan to reform the constitution and appoint himself PM.
Ruto, Vasey explains, is trying to take credit for Kenyatta's achievements "while also explaining why he is not responsible for its failings, and [...] why he would do better this time." Meanwhile, Odinga can hardly claim to be the progressive alternative "while also leveraging his relationship with [a] conservative president whose track record he has long criticized."
What most Kenyan voters want is a leader who’ll do something different to fix tangible problems like rising food and fuel prices or youth unemployment. But they won't get much change from Odinga or Ruto, who are "basically just two versions of continuity," says political commentator and cartoonist Patrick Gathara.
"They are not new entities. And I don't think there's an expectation that what they are saying or what they are promising would be anything revolutionary," Gathara adds. "Kenyans [...] don't expect that if one takes power at the expense of the other, that would make a huge difference in how the country is run."
Why should people vote at all then? Kenya has by far the most competitive democracy in East Africa, where strongmen have carried the day more often than not. And while previous elections have been marred by violence, few are expecting widespread unrest this time around.
Still, Gathara believes that voting alone is not enough.
"There has been a huge emphasis on elections and on especially switching the people running the country — as if that would itself lead to a more serious attempt to actually fix [Kenya's] problems," he says. "But we've been on this merry-go-round since the 1950s and seen that it's really not about who's in power, but [rather] the system that they run. And this is a system that, in essence, is inherited from colonialism and never changed."
Until all Kenyans push to reform how politics work from the grassroots, Gathara laments, "voting can only take us so far."
Meanwhile, Odinga and Ruto are so tight in the surveys that the election could go to a runoff for the first time if neither gets 50% of the vote. In that case, the surprise kingmaker might be longshot presidential hopeful George Wajackoya, now polling a distant third at around 3% and with a few interesting ideas on how to make Kenya great.
If he were president, Wajackoya would legalize cannabis and boost trade with Asia by selling erectile dysfunction “medicine” made with … hyena testicles. No wonder he's the only "change" candidate.
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Election banners of Kenya's presidential hopefuls.
Kenya’s two-and-a-half presidential horse race
On Aug. 9, Kenya’s 22 million registered voters will go the polls to pick a successor to the outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is barred from reelection by term limits. They will also select new national- and county-level lawmakers and county governors. For the presidential contest, Kenyans are presented with a batch of familiar faces to choose from. Yet even by the standards of the country’s ultra-transactional, unpredictable politics, this year’s electoral playing field is an unusual one. We spoke with Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey to learn more.
Who are the candidates?
It is a very narrow race this year with only four presidential candidates cleared to participate. In practice it is even tighter than that — what you might call a “two-and-a-half horse race.” On the one side is Deputy President William Ruto, whose gradual alienation from Kenyatta makes him both an incumbent and opposition figure. He heads both his party the United Democratic Alliance and the coalition Kenya Kwanza.
On the other side is the long-time opposition leader Raila Odinga (Orange Democratic Movement), who is taking his fifth and likely final stab at the presidency. But courtesy of a 2018 mending of fences Odinga has the backing of erstwhile rival Kenyatta, the “half horse” supporting Odinga’s campaign. The two have cobbled together the 26-member Azimio La Umoja (Declaration of Unity) coalition, which Kenyatta heads.
What are their platforms?
Beyond the branding and personalities, the platforms of the two leading candidates are essentially the same. Both are promising economic “rejuvenation” or “liberation” (depending on who you ask) for the bottom of the population pyramid. Both are talking big on support for farmers, small enterprises, youth entrepreneurs, and the informal sector.
Ruto clothes this in his “hustler versus dynasty” narrative, which frames his campaign as an effort to take on the established political families that have called the shots in Kenya since independence. Odinga, meanwhile, leans heavily on his contribution to bringing multiparty democracy to Kenya and his time in the opposition to portray himself as the more credible, elder statesman. He has chosen the respected anticorruption campaigner and constitutionalist Martha Karua as his running mate.
What are the main issues?
The state of the economy – specifically job creation and the cost of living – is by far the biggest. Though long a concern for most Kenyans, it has taken on more urgency in recent years. The pandemic and spike in commodity prices have increased economic hardship and exposed very ugly inequality. Until recently, Ruto’s campaign focused almost exclusively on the economy, and Odinga has made serious efforts to catch-up on that front.
In addition, corruption and healthcare are two other broad national concerns, while more local issues such as access to water and power may also sway some voters.
Why is Kenyatta backing Odinga and not Ruto?
It is important to note first of all that the Kenyatta-Ruto relationship was always a marriage of convenience and was never underpinned by deeper, interpersonal alignment. Once their collaboration was no longer politically expedient, its days were numbered. When Kenyatta and Odinga agreed in early 2018 to put an end to their bitter dispute of the 2017 election result –an act of reconciliation known locally as “The Handshake” – that signaled the political landscape was about to start shifting.
As to why Kenyatta decided his alliance with Ruto had outlived its usefulness, he appears to have come to the conclusion that Ruto was not the best person to preserve his presidential legacy and his family’s extensive economic interests. People close to the president say it had become apparent that Ruto was both uncomfortably independent – for example, he had developed a following in Kenyatta’s own stronghold – and an unreliable “business partner.” The increasing prominence of Odinga, who himself harbors grievances against Ruto, further soured Kenyatta on his deputy.
Will there be 2017-level violence?
The instability we saw in 2017 was mostly the product of the interaction of violent protests with an even more violent police response. Something similar, albeit on a smaller scale, is a risk. Actions by electoral officials that can inflame tensions will be an important watchpoint – unfortunately, they are perceived as partisan supporters of one candidate or the other.
That said, there are reasons for cautious optimism. First, despite some isolated incidents, the pre-election period has been quiet in comparison with previous cycles. Second, there have been important changes to the 2010 constitution that are increasingly institutionalized: the decentralization of power to counties (reducing the stakes of elections) and stronger judicial independence (which gives candidates a credible route to challenge a loss). Third, and perhaps most importantly, is the apathy many Kenyans feel toward an election lacking in fresh faces.
What are the main challenges waiting for the next president?
In the early days, both candidates will struggle to accommodate members of their large alliances in government positions and to restore sufficient political calm to devise a solution to the cost-of-living crisis. Longer term, walking the tightrope between stimulating growth and preserving Kenya’s fragile finances will be the biggest challenge for the new president. The voices of a young population demanding more jobs and improvements in standards of living will only grow louder.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman fist bumps US President Joe Biden in Jeddah.
What We're Watching: Biden-MBS fist bump, Xi in Xinjiang, Kenya-Somalia thaw
Biden’s Saudi trip fallout
Engagement with would-be pariahs may cost you politically, but it's necessary for the national interest. Over the weekend, US President Joe Biden got panned — mostly by fellow Democrats — for fist-bumping with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, during Biden's controversial Middle East trip. (The CIA believes MBS ordered the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Kashoggi.) Still, the White House said the president returned from the region with some important agreements, such as progress on ending the war in Yemen or making a joint pledge with Israel to stop Iran from getting nukes. But did he really achieve much else? Riyadh announced that it'll increase oil production, but not enough to tame rising gas prices and inflation in America before the November midterms. The Saudis are also nowhere near joining the Abraham Accords, and peace between Israel and the Palestinians remains as elusive as it was under Biden's predecessors. So, why go at all then? The short answer is: as long as the US wants to continue being a player in the Middle East, you simply can't afford to ignore the Saudis, or MBS himself.
Xi Jinping "inspects" Xinjiang
China's President Xi Jinping wrapped up a surprise visit to Xinjiang on Friday, his first in eight years, in a bid to demonstrate national unity in a region where Beijing has been accused of systematically violating the human rights of the Uyghur ethnic minority. Xi reaffirmed his commitment "to the correct and Chinese way to address ethnic issues" in Xinjiang. Although the one million Uyghurs who human rights groups say China has put in internment camps there may beg to differ, Xi clearly has no intention of changing tack in Xinjiang. Still, the visit is relevant for two reasons. First, it had been two weeks since Xi was seen in public following his trip to Hong Kong – his first trip outside mainland China since 2019 – to mark the 25th anniversary of the city’s handover (rumors swirled about him possibly catching COVID from a lawmaker who tested positive after meeting Xi there). Second, Xi seems to be making a big splash to show off his accomplishments in China's most restive regions as he prepares to secure a norm-defying third term as head of the ruling Communist Party in November. Will Tibet be his next destination?
Kenya and Somalia patching things up
Frenemy neighbors Kenya and Somalia took a big step toward warmer ties on Friday, by signing a slew of cooperation deals during Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's first visit to Nairobi since being elected in May. Mohamud and Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta agreed to reopen the border, resume flights between the two countries, and lift a ban on trading khat, a mild stimulant that’s one of Somalia’s few exports. The two sides have been at odds for years over a bunch of issues. Kenya complains that Somalia doesn't do enough to stop al-Shabab militants from carrying out deadly attacks across the border, and has threatened to shut down Somali refugee camps in response. For their part, the Somalis resent Kenya for hosting the leader of Somaliland, a breakaway region whose independence is not recognized by Mogadishu. The relationship further deteriorated last October, when the UN's top court ruled in favor of Somalia in its long-running maritime border dispute with Kenya over an Indian Ocean triangle region presumably rich in offshore oil and natural gas. Still, the current déténte could be scrapped by whoever wins the presidential election to replace the outgoing Kenyatta on Aug. 9.Hard Numbers: Kenyan reforms nixed, Macron’s McKinsey woes, Sri Lanka goes dark, Tunisia’s Zoom “coup”
70: Kenya’s top court on Thursday rejected President Uhuru Kenyatta’s sweeping plans to tweak the constitution before his term ends in August. Among the amendments he had proposed were creating the position of prime minister and adding 70 new members of parliament — all to be initially appointed by (surprise!) Kenyatta himself.
1 billion: French President Emmanuel Macron has come under fire for spending more than 1 billion euros ($1.108 billion) on private consultancy firms like McKinsey to advise on managing the pandemic. Macron's rivals hope the scandal will hurt him in the polls less than two weeks before the presidential election.
13: Sri Lanka will turn off street lights to save electricity amid the country’s worst economic crisis in decades. The island nation has been suffering 13-hour power cuts for weeks because the government has run out of foreign currency to pay for fuel imports.
124: President Kais Saied on Wednesday dissolved Tunisia's already-suspended parliament after 124 out of 217 lawmakers defied him to hold a (virtual) vote on the emergency powers Saied has used since July 2021. The president called the move a “failed coup attempt” — which critics likely think is a bit rich, given that Said took over in a power grab of his own.The other big elections of 2022
A few days ago we previewed five major elections to watch in 2022. Here are some others we'll be paying close attention to in the months ahead.
South Korea (March). South Korean voters will choose between two very different options to replace Moon Jae-in, the term-limited incumbent. The candidate from the ruling center-left party is Lee Jae-myung, a former civil rights lawyer and governor known as the South Korean Bernie Sanders because he backs a universal basic income. Lee’s rival and center-right hopeful is Yoon Seok-youl, a former prosecutor who helped convict former president Park Geun-hye of abuse of power in 2016.
On foreign policy, Lee wants warmer ties with China, more control over US forces in South Korea, and to play nice with North Korea. For his part, Yoon wants to push back more against China, bolster the US alliance, and deploy US tactical nukes on South Korean soil to deter Pyongyang. Yoon is ahead in the polls, yet not by much. Lee is more experienced and popular with young voters, who could decide the outcome if they turn up in high numbers.
Australia (by May 21). Australians will go to the polls before the end of May. It's a legislative election, so the party that gets a majority of seats in parliament will pick the next prime minister. The approval rating of the current PM, Scott Morrison of the right-leaning Liberal Coalition, is now at its lowest in 18 months due to frustration over one of the world's longest and strictest pandemic lockdowns, which has pummeled Aussie businesses.
Still, the Coalition remains neck-and-neck in the polls with the opposition Labor Party, struggling to capitalize on Morrison's unpopularity. The main campaign issues will likely be climate, but perhaps more COVID and the economy. On foreign policy, both parties want to maintain close ties with the US, support the AUKUS regional military alliance, and have similar views on China — although Labor doesn't want Australia to be in complete lockstep with America as it says Canberra has been under Morrison.
The Philippines (May). Philippine elections have always been deeply polarizing, and next year's will be no different. The current frontrunner in the race to succeed term-limited President Rodrigo Duterte is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator. Marcos, a staunch Duterte ally, has the president's daughter as his running mate, and right now more than half of Filipinos would vote for him.
But Marcos is reviled by other Filipinos, who remember how his strongman dad embezzled up to $10 billion in his 21 years in power (which the Marcoses deny). With boxer-turned senator Manny Pacquiao polling in the single digits, the anti-Duterte and anti-Marcos opposition has pinned all its hopes on VP Leni Robredo, who beat Marcos in the 2016 Veep contest but at the moment is a long shot.
Kenya (August). Although President Uhuru Kenyatta cannot run for a third term, he will loom large over the 2022 election. Last May, the country's top court junked Kenyatta's planned constitutional referendum in order to make Kenyan politics less tribal in exchange for more executive power. The verdict was a big win for William Ruto, Kenyatta's deputy and current presidential frontrunner.
Ruto — the first candidate not from a political family with a shot at winning the top job — is leading the polls over Raila Odinga, the scion of a prominent dynasty and Kenyatta’s former enemy turned ally. Promising to fight both wealth inequality and political dynasties, the president’s number two styles himself as a "hustler" to appeal to the three-quarters of Kenyans aged between 18 and 35. But he needs to get young people to actually show up at the ballot box, and so far the ongoing registration drive isn’t going well.