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Guatemalan migrants walk after arriving at La Aurora Air Force Base on a deportation flight from the U.S., in Guatemala City, Guatemala, December 27, 2024.
Latin America braces for Trump’s deportation blitz
Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s challenge to Donald Trump over deportation flights lasted less than a day. But as the US administration ramps up deportations of undocumented migrants – focusing for now on those convicted of crimes – Latin American leaders are holding an emergency summit this Thursday.
Two key countries to watch in all of this:
First, Venezuela. Since 2015, political and economic crises have driven out nearly 8 million people. At least 270,000 of them live undocumented in the US. Despite long-standing enmity between los Yánquis and the socialist regime of Nicolás Maduro, Caracas has been open to deportation flights.
“He’s been trying to play nice with the new administration,” says Risa Grais-Targow, a regional expert at Eurasia Group. In part, Maduro wants to keep the US from reimposing sanctions on the oil sector, which Washington was technically bound to do after Maduro rigged his reelection last July.
“It’s unclear whether Trump will be moved,” says Grais-Targow. “He’s repeatedly said the US doesn’t need Venezuelan oil.” Without an agreement, the US will have to fly Venezuelans to third countries.
Second, Honduras: Nearly 300,000 Hondurans are at immediate risk of deportation. Honduras has been readying a support network for them but also, spicily, signaling that excessive US pressure could push the tiny country even closer to China.
The big question: Will a more aggressive US increase opportunities for a commercially active China to act as a counterbalance in the region more broadly?
What do Donald Trump, Bad Bunny, and the Panama Canal have in common?
Donald Trump wants to take back the Panama Canal, and Bad Bunny’s new album "DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS" is the most streamed record in the world right now. What do these two things have to do with each other?
More than you’d think. That’s because reggaetón, the genre Bad Bunny is best known for, actually has its origins on the the banks of the Panama Canal.
And American foreign policy played a key part in that story.
When the Americans built the canal in the years before World War I, they brought in thousands of workers from across the West Indies, but especially Jamaica, to do the hard labor. Afterward, those laborers were permitted to live and work in the Canal Zone, a strip of US sovereign territory inside Panama that flanked the canal, ensuring US control over the waterway.
The Panamanians didn’t love this arrangement. Many felt the original canal treaties were illegitimate, and resentment at the US presence grew. In 1964, when the US stopped students from flying a Panamanian flag in the Canal Zone, a mass riot left four American soldiers and 22 Panamanian police officers dead. The Soviet Union blasted Washington’s “colonizing policy.” Fidel Castro decried “Yankee imperialism.”
In 1977, US President Jimmy Carter decided to give the canal to Panama. Carter thought this would improve America’s relations with Latin America, and avoid a more costly crisis around the Canal itself.
“Fairness, not force, should lie at the heart of our dealings with the rest of the world,” he said at the time.
Carter’s plan was unpopular at home. The stiffest opposition came from a telegenic young California governor named Ronald Reagan. But Carter’s dogged lobbying – and some help from John Wayne, whose first wife was Panamanian – helped to win narrow passage of the handover treaties. The canal itself wouldn't be given to Panama until 1999, but the controversial canal zone was dissolved almost immediately, in 1979.
And that’s where the music comes back into the story. Many of the Jamaicans and West Indians living in the Canal Zone moved to nearby Panama City. And when they did, they brought with them the popular new sound coming out of Jamaica at the time – “dancehall,” a rawer, streetier, more club-oriented successor to the reggae of the 1970s.
It wasn’t long before dancehall was reinterpreted in Spanish, becoming a new genre called Reggae en Español, a unique mashup made by the West Indians of the Canal Zone and Panama’s own Afro-Panamanian communities.
But we still aren’t in Puerto Rico yet! Right. We’re getting there.
In 1985, one of the pioneers of the Panamanian scene, known as El General, moved to New York. There he introduced the sound to the city’s huge Puerto Rican diaspora, who helped popularize it back on the island where, in turn, local artists brought hip-hop and Puerto Rican traditional styles into a musical mix that would soon go from the streets of Panama and Puerto Rico to the whole globe.
The first documented use of the term reggaeton dates from this period, when a young Daddy Yankee (whose song “Gasolina” would become the first global reggaeton hit in 2004) used it in a freestyle on an early 1990s mixtape. And just a few years after that, Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio was born in Bayamón, Puerto Rico.
You now know young Benito as "Bad Bunny."
So why does Trump want the canal back anyway? He thinks it was a “mistake” to give up a canal that handles more than 5% of global trade. As Trump sees it, the US is locked in a zero-sum economic competition with China, and controlling that canal is critical, whether the Panamanians like it or not.
This is the inverse of Carter’s formulation – Trump's world is one where force is squarely at the center of America’s dealings with both friends and foes.
Trump's view echoes older ideas about America’s natural right to expand and dominate the Western Hemisphere. His America will, he says, be one that “expands our territory ... and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons,” as he pledged in his inaugural address.
But do you know what the last major US territorial expansion in Latin America was? It was the takeover, in 1898, of Puerto Rico, as a result of the Spanish-American war. The island has been, in effect, a colony of the US ever since.
And to come full circle here, the negative impacts of that 127-year relationship – political repression, exploitative neglect, mass emigration, and creeping gentrification – are all major themes of … Bad Bunny’s new album.
If you want to learn more about this story – including the complicated issues of class, gender, and race that are part of reggaeton’s evolution – check out the podcast “LOUD,” a history narrated by Ivy Queen, one of the pioneering women of the genre.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets supporters at a protest ahead of the Friday inauguration of President Nicolas Maduro for his third term, in Caracas, Venezuela January 9, 2025.
Venezuela briefly arrests opposition leader just ahead of Maduro inauguration
Regime forces violently detained Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado as she left a rally in Caracas on Thursday, just one day before strongman President Nicolás Maduro was set to begin his third term. She was released hours later.
Machado had been in hiding for over 100 days but came out to galvanize protesters risking their lives to demonstrate against the illegitimate, autocratic government. Despite soldiers loyal to the regime manning checkpoints across the capital, thousands of citizens marched in response to the opposition’s calls for resistance. Moments before her motorcycle convoy came under gunfire, Machado led a crowd of supporters chanting, “We are not afraid!”
Her short detention could lead to further protests, but Maduro is determined to retain power for another six-year term and is set to be sworn in today. He has met past unrest with brutal violence, and we are watching for more clashes between authorities and protesters, though the government has detained many activists and opposition politicians in recent days. The government says it will also arrestEdmundo González, the man who independent audits show actually won last year’s election, if he attempts to return from exile in the Dominican Republic — which he has sworn to do today.
Ian Explains: What's so radical about Argentina's new president (besides his cloned dogs)?
Argentina's new libertarian president, Javier Milei, is not like other Argentine presidents. He's not like anyone else, for that matter. But it's not his penchant for dressing up as a superhero and singing about fiscal policy that sets him apart. Nor is it his cloned dogs or bombastic approach to politics. Six months into his first year in office, it's his radical plan to save Argentina's economy that's truly radical. And here's the thing...so far it seems to be working.
Despite living in one of the largest and most resource-rich nations in Latin America, the average Argentine has endured one economic calamity after another. Milei has vowed to put an end to what he refers to as "100 years of decadence. But can he pull it off?
The self-proclaimed tantric sex guru with a mop of unruly black hair that he claims the invisible hand of the free market keeps in place campaigned for president last year by promising to take a chainsaw literally to government spending and to eliminate Argentina's Central Bank. He also derided climate change as a socialist conspiracy. He called the Argentine compatriot Pope Francis a "leftist S.O.B." He's known universally in Argentina as El Loco or the madman. And then back in November, he won the election in a landslide.
When he won, many experts expected that Milei's self-styled, anarcho-capitalism would be the death knell for an economy already in free fall. But after taking office in December, Argentina's 300% annual inflation slowed for five months in a row. His government did this by turning the 5.5% budget deficit that it inherited into the country's first surplus in over a decade. And all without destabilizing their currency and their financial markets.
But while Milei's shock therapy has been successful at balancing the budget and slowing inflation, the fiscal and monetary austerity has caused a deep recession, with economic activity shrinking almost 10% year-on-year back in March, unemployment rising, real salaries in Argentina hitting their lowest points since 2003. Mass protests against budget cuts to public universities back in June drew more than 400,000 people to the streets.
Can Milei save Argentina's economy before he destroys it?
Watch Ian's exclusive interview with Javier Milei on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: Subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Argentina's Milei shares strong views on China and Israel
In an exclusive interview with Ian Bremmer for the latest episode of GZERO World, Milei defines his approach to foreign policy as one of democracies vs autocracies. And he makes clear that Argentina will always side with democracies. But how does he square that vow with the reality that Chinese trade is a critical part of Argentina's (not to mention Latin America's) economy? He answers by pointing to his staunch libertarian beliefs, and his desire to stay out of the free market's way. "If I were to limit that trade, which is free, would Argentines be better off or worse off?"
Milei also makes clear that his staunch support for Israel is a defining aspect of his foreign policy approach. When Bremmer asks him about the Gaza war, his answer is simple and unwavering. "I will continue to support Israel right to the end."
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube and on our website. Don’t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Argentina's radical new president, Javier Milei (Exclusive interview)
In an exclusive interview with Ian Bremmer for the latest episode of GZERO World, Argentine President Javier Milei defends his radical approach to saving Argentina’s struggling economy, his commitment to aligning with liberal democracies, and his pragmatic stance on international trade and alliances.
There's no getting around it: Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, is an odd duck. But beyond his penchant for cloned dogs, messy hair, and bombast, what’s truly radical about the South American leader is his plan to save Argentina’s economy. When he ran for office, the economics professor-turned-TV pundit-turned-presidential-candidate vowed to eliminate Argentina’s central bank and threatened to replace the Argentine peso with the American dollar. But once he came to office, a more pragmatic approach to economic reform emerged. And in just six months, his administration has managed to slow Argentina's 300% annual inflation and turn a budget deficit into a surplus. "We have actually completed the largest reform in the history of Argentina," he proudly tells Ian Bremmer in an exclusive new interview for GZERO World, highlighting the scale of his efforts to overturn what he calls "100 years of decadence."
(Note: Turn on closed captions for translation from Spanish to English or your preferred language.)
Milei's libertarian economic policies, although effective in some respects, have also led to significant hardships. "Life is going to be harder for the average Argentinian citizen," he acknowledges. Despite these challenges, Milei's popularity remains high, attributed to his honesty and transparency with the public.
In a wide-ranging interview with Bremmer, Milei also explains that his approach to foreign policy is marked by a mix of ideological commitment and pragmatic flexibility. He champions free trade and economic liberalization while acknowledging the complexities of dealing with autocratic regimes. "The world should be separated between liberal democracies and autocracies," Milei asserts. Yet, he does not shy away from engaging with China, recognizing the economic benefits such relationships can bring. "If I were to limit that trade, which is free, would Argentines be better off or worse off?" he asks Bremmer, advocating for a balanced approach that prioritizes Argentina's well-being.
Milei's staunch support for Israel is another defining aspect of his foreign policy. When Ian asks him about the Gaza war, his answer is simple and unwavering. "I will continue to support Israel right to the end."
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Venezuelans gather to demonstrate during Venezuela's election voting day in Bogota, Colombia, July 28, 2024.
Venezuelans head to the polls as Maduro warns of a “bloodbath”
Venezuelans are voting in make-or-break elections as President Nicolás Madurotrails behind opposition leader Edmundo González by up to 30 percentage points in some polls. González – a retired diplomat who stepped in after the most popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was barred – might be the country’s best chance to restore democracy.
The background: Maduro’s 11 years in power have been marred with economic instability so severe as to cause mass malnutrition, violent political crackdowns, and America’s worst migration crisis in history. Over 7 million Venezuelans have fled repression and starvation since 2015. Maduro, currently under investigation by the ICC for alleged crimes against humanity, has led Venezuela to “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in almost half a century” according to the IMF.
How has he stayed in power? In past elections, Maduro has kept the crown by barring and jailing challengers – and using his thugs to intimidate voters. His actions have been met by US sanctions, and the last election was deemed illegitimate by the US, Canada, and 14 other countries.
Polls show an undeniable truth Maduro seems unwilling to accept: He cannot beat González in a free and fair election. This leaves Maduro – who most analysts presume will resist a peaceful transition of power – two options: mass electoral fraud and political crackdowns or making good on his warnings of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he loses. So far at least, the government has not reported any unrest at polling places.
For more on Venezuela’s election, check out GZERO’s Viewpoint interview with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targowhere.Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei gestures during the closing event of his electoral campaign ahead of the November 19 runoff election, in Cordoba, Argentina, November 16, 2023.
Milei’s win raises pressure for completion of EU-Latin America trade deal
Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election could rapidly accelerate negotiations for a trade treaty between the Mercosur trade bloc and the EU. Milei, a self-declared anarcho-capitalist, vowed to pull Argentina from Mercosur altogether if he won. His victory raises questions about the future of the bloc and talks surrounding the treaty.
A trade pact between the bloc — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay — and the EU has been in the works for years, and the two sides reached an agreement in principle in 2019. But talks have been stalled ever since thanks to disagreements over environmental commitments pushed by the EU.
The Milei effect: There now appears to be a mad dash to complete an agreement before Argentina inaugurates Milei, a far-right libertarian who’s drawn comparisons to former US President Donald Trump. Diplomats involved in the negotiations told the Financial Times they’re hoping to wrap things up by early December.
“The talks are moving ahead fast,” a Brazilian official taking part in the negotiations told Reuters.
As a climate-change denier, the Argentine president-elect could complicate negotiations on environmentally related matters. While it would be tough to finalize the deal before his inauguration, this might be the incentive all parties need to get to the finish line. We’ll be watching to see whether they can reach a deal before Milei takes office on Dec. 10.