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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron. February 8, 2022.
Macron in Kyiv, Philippine vote, Haiti assassination probe
Macron does the rounds. French President Emmanuel Macron is on a diplomatic tour to find a solution to the Ukraine crisis. On Monday, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two chatted for five hours, with Macron reporting he had “secured an assurance there would be no deterioration or escalation.” But Russia later said Macron’s version was “not right,” and pushed back against reports that Putin had agreed to withdraw troops from Belarus. Was Putin lashing out because Macron left the Kremlin to fly to Kyiv where he reaffirmed Europe's commitment to Ukraine? Either way, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who’s set to meet with Putin in Moscow on Feb. 15, will be taking note. Tellingly, Macron appeared less sanguine in Kyiv, saying the stalemate could continue for months.
Will the Marcos family rise again? Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., son of the late dictator, is the frontrunner to succeed outgoing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Marcos, alongside VP running mate Sara Duterte — whose father is ineligible to run due to term limits — is polling well ahead of his rivals. Marcos has a massive social media presence, but he remains a polarizing figure due to his dad's legacy of kleptocracy and martial law. He recently beat a disqualification petition against him over an old tax conviction, but several more are pending. While the cases make their way through the courts, expect a campaign dominated by personalities and political dynasties in a country where name recognition is the only game in town. The official race kicked off this week, and the election will be held on May 9.
Haiti assassination plot thickens. Haitian President Jovenel Moïse was killed at his home in Port-au-Prince last summer, and former Colombian military personnel arrested in connection with his assassination have claimed they were set up. But now a bombshell CNN report says Prime Minister Ariel Henry, a doctor who has served as interim leader since Moïse’s murder, was involved in the plot and has tried to thwart the murder investigation. What’s more, Henry, who heads large swaths of the justice department, has been accused of firing prosecutors and judges who sought potential charges against him. While some observers have criticized the US for not pressuring Henry to step down, American officials are likely wary of anything that could lead to more upheaval.
Signs of Russian climbdown following Macron-Putin meeting
How did the Macron-Putin meeting go? What is going on with the Canadian truckers' protest? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How did the Macron-Putin meeting go?
What was five hours long and it was like a football field away from each other. And of course, Macron is focused on his election coming up. So with all of that, you'd think it would be problematic, but actually engagement between Macron and Biden the day before was pretty strong. And it does look like the ball’s moved a little bit diplomatically. Most importantly, some of the news coming out of the Kremlin overnight that indeed the Russians are planning on taking those troops out of Belarus after the military exercises are over. Now I mean, of course, if they say they are planning on taking them back out of Belarus and putting them into Ukraine, that would be a technicality, but pretty bad. But no, actually that does seem like a bit of a climbdown. Still, Putin is not friendly. He is blustering all over the place and certainly, he wants to be respected. He doesn't feel like he is right now. But on balance we're in a slightly better place because of the Macron meeting than we were the day before.
What is going on with the Canadian truckers' protest?
Well, a relatively small number of Canadian truckers who are anti vax mandate in the country decided to basically shut down central Ottawa. And first of all, it's not about the truckers as a whole. 90% of truckers in Canada are vaccinated. Secondly, this was largely the Canadian government in Ottawa not wanting any confrontation and so allowing these truckers to come in and basically take over the city and make lots of people miserable. And now they've declared a state of emergency. What is interesting is that the Conservative Party in Canada is becoming much more populist and the potential for a Trump-style leader in Canada to take over the conservative movement and potentially even win the premiership is real. And that would be kind of shocking for those that are focused on Canada as the nicer, softer side of the United States. There is a real populist movement that's gaining strength in Canada and the truckers are a part of it.
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