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Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro delivers a speech during a rally to celebrate the results of last month's presidential election, in Caracas, Venezuela August 28, 2024.
Venezuela arrests six in coup plot claim
Six foreign nationals, including three American, two Spanish, and one Czech citizen, were arrested in Venezuela on Saturday,accused of plotting to assassinate strongman President Nicolás Maduro. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announced the arrests on state television, claiming the suspects were part of a CIA-led plan to overthrow the government. One of the Americans is a US Navy SEAL identified as Wilbert Joseph Castañeda Gomez.
In response,the US State Department denied any involvement, called the claims “categorically false,” and reaffirmed support for a peaceful resolution to the crisis stemming from Venezuela’s recent elections. The Spanish Foreign Ministry said that the two Spanish citizens detained “do not form part of the Centre for National Intelligence or any state organization” and called for a “democratic and peaceful solution to the situation in Venezuela.”
The arrests cometwo days after the US Treasury imposed sanctions on 16 Maduro allies, and a week after Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzales, who was facing arrest, fled to Spain. Washington refuses to recognize the results of Venezuela's July 28 election, in which Maduro claimed victory despite evidence that Gonzales was the real winner. Caracas called the US sanctions a “crime of aggression” that seeks to “overthrow, without success, the Bolivarian democracy.”
Trump-Harris debate: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What issues will dominate the Trump/Harris debate?
Well, I mean clearly the economy, migration, abortion, I mean these are the issues that are on top of everybody's agenda. I care the most about global issues, foreign policy issues, things like climate change, artificial intelligence governance, and say, the Middle East, China, and Russia. But I suspect that that gets a small amount of time and also is a very little impact to voters that has still undecided. Having said all of that, I don't think this is mostly about issues. I think this is mostly about how does Harris perform against Trump and vice versa. And keep in mind that given just how filtered people's information sources are, if one of them wins by a little bit, then both sides are going to come away saying we destroyed the other, and so will all of their supporters.
So I mean, there has to be a big mistake or a big win for anyone to break through in what's an extremely tight race here. And that's what everyone's looking for, especially because Harris hasn't been tested like this before and Trump's last few public appearances have been pretty all over the map and showing his age. So I think people looking for first major test of Harris of this sort and is Trump capable of still delivering big-time entertainment in this sort of a format? So that's where we are. Everyone will be tuned in tonight. I think a lot more than 50 million people in the United States are going to be watching. This should be a highly, highly visible and important. Only two months before the election action.
As Edmundo Gonzalez seeks asylum in Spain, what lies ahead for Venezuela and Maduro's opposition?
Well, the fact that the United States has impounded one of Maduro's planes shows just how much that policy had failed, an effort to try to use carrots to get the Venezuelan government to be willing to hold a free and fair election. That was never going to happen. Not from the Americans, not from the Colombians, not from the Brazilians. Not from the Mexicans. There was no one out there that was going to make a difference. And sadly not Venezuela's opposition either. What this means is the military still supporting the Venezuelan president, massively corrupt, completely stolen illegitimate election and he's not going anywhere. That's where we are. And if Gonzalez hadn't fled the country, he was going to get arrested. Venezuelan military and president, very happy for him to flee the country. They gave him more than enough time and indication saying, "Okay, we're coming for you. We're coming for you. Okay, now we have an arrest warrant. If you don't leave, you're going to jail." He left. And everyone, I guess, is comfortable with that outcome, but a horrible place for the Venezuelan people, millions of whom will be streaming, millions more mostly to the United States, to Colombia, to other countries.
How was Mario Draghi's report on EU competitiveness received?
Received very well because the Europeans are not spending on competitiveness and industrial policy the way the Americans are, the way the Chinese are. And that means that they're being left behind in terms of technology. They're also not spending enough on security, which means they're still super, super dependent on the United States. And Draghi is calling for the Europeans to do a lot more, but they don't have the internal leadership to make that happen, and they don't have the fiscal space, nor do they have the coordination capable, even in a strong European Union. So very welcome. Not going to get implemented. That's where we are. Love Draghi, but he ain't running the EU.
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Nicolas Maduro standing in front of protestors in Venezuela.
Maduro won’t go
Earlier this week, the US Justice Department seized the airplane used by Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, his equivalent of Air Force One. It’s the latest signal that the Biden administration remains furious at Maduro for stealing another of his country’s elections — and that it needs some way of expressing that anger. Will this latest US move undermine Maduro’s hold on power? Don’t hold your breath.
Background: US presidents have tried for years to force Maduro, in power since 2013, to hold free and fair national elections in Venezuela. Maduro has refused because he knows he would lose any contest that isn’t rigged in his favor. In 2018’s presidential election, he manipulated the vote to a degree that made international headlines, and the US and more than 50 other countries recognized the president of the National Assembly, opposition leader Juan Guaidó, as the country’s rightful leader. It made no difference; Maduro pressed on and remained in power.
Under President Donald Trump in March 2020, the US Justice Department charged Maduro and 14 of his political allies with narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and corruption in hopes of loosening his grip. No dice.
The Biden administration has tried a different approach. Ahead of this year’s presidential election in Venezuela, the US lifted some sanctions in hopes of persuading Maduro to change his mind — and of keeping US election-year gasoline prices down. This can charitably be called the triumph of hope over experience. In January, the US was forced to reimpose some previous sanctions after Maduro barred the country’s most popular opposition candidate, Maria Corina Machado, from running against him this year.
Machado then elevated a little-known official, Edmundo González, to run against Maduro in her place. The presidential election went ahead in July, and Maduro immediately declared victory … without releasing any voting data. Venezuela’s opposition has since published more than 80% of the information printed and collected from the country’s voting machines thus far to make the case that González soundly defeated Maduro. In response, just as he did with Guaidó in the past, Maduro now appears ready to arrest González, or at least to use the threat of arrest to force González to flee the country. To show just how much power he still commands, Maduro decreed this week that this year’s celebration of Christmas will begin on Oct. 1. Seriously.
The US and Venezuela’s neighbors, particularly Colombia, have a clear interest in restoring credibility to Venezuela’s politics, in part because both countries and the region have absorbed millions of refugees fleeing political repression or simply looking for brighter economic prospects than Venezuela’s basket-case, sanction-plagued economy can provide.
The US request that the Dominican Republic seize Maduro’s plane is just the latest example of ineffectual pressure. US Attorney General Merrick Garland has claimed the aircraft “was illegally purchased for $13 million through a shell company and smuggled out of the United States for use by Nicolás Maduro and his cronies.” A US official told CNN this week that Washington is “sending a clear message here that no one is above the law, no one is above the reach of US sanctions.”
Let’s cut the chase: Maduro will continue to resist any deal that pushes him from power. The US has reportedly offered him amnesty if he agrees to step down. Some in Congress want a return to the Trump administration’s tougher approach. A group of bipartisan lawmakers led by Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID), Rick Scott (R-FL), and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) appear ready to present the so-called “VALOR Act,” a bill co-sponsored by Democrats including Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO). The bill would significantly ratchet up US sanctions against Venezuela.
Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have also tried to pressure Maduro by calling for the release of detailed voter tallies and an election audit conducted by some institution other than Venezuela’s Supreme Court, which remains fully under Maduro’s thumb.
But the Venezuelan leader still has firm backing from the country’s military and security forces, which profit from his rule. They will also again become the target of sanctions, but they’ve weathered these storms before and have had plenty of time to prepare for one of this year’s least surprising storms. In fact, Maduro has responded to pressure from the US and other governments not by offering concessions but by arresting opposition leaders and restricting access in Venezuela to social media that can be used to organize protests.
To date, the Trump get-tough approach and the Biden engagement strategy have both failed, because the US is no better able to dislodge Maduro than they were to sweep away Cuba’s Fidel Castro. Maduro, like Castro, has friends in Beijing and Moscow ready to provide diplomatic cover and just enough cash to render US leverage useless. Until there is a revolt from within Maduro’s domestic alliance of backers, clients, and enablers, the strongman will remain strong.
A demonstrator is holding a banner during an antigovernment protest in Lisbon, Portugal, on August 4, 2024. Venezuelans in Lisbon are gathering in Praca do Comercio to protest and express their disagreement with the election results in Venezuela and to support opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez.
Venezuela’s neighbors brace for a fresh exodus
A new poll shows more than 40% of Venezuela’s population — roughly 7 million people — might flee the country in the wake of strongman President Nicolás Maduro’s apparently successful bid to steal the July 28 election.
According to research by local pollster Meganalisis, nearly a million of those people are planning to leave by the end of the year. If that happens, it will exacerbate what is already the world’s worst external refugee crisis.
Since 2014, nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled their country’s political and humanitarian chaos, surpassing the numbers from Ukraine (6 million) and Syria (5.5 million). Three million went to Colombia, and 1.5 million are in Peru. Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Spain, and the US are home to half a million each.
Their arrival has stretched the capacity of governments and societies to absorb newcomers, especially during the difficult climb out of the pandemic. Anti-immigrant sentiment has grown across the region. As far away as New York City, Mayor Eric Adams says the presence of 150,000 refugees, many from Venezuela, would “destroy the city.”
Venezuela’s opposition – which won the election, according to independent counts – is still in the streets, demanding a transition of power. But with Maduro now doubling down, millions may soon vote again – this time with their feet.
For more: Watch GZERO’s special report about the non-profits helping to welcome and resettle thousands of refugees amid New York City’s “broken” immigration system.
People carry Venezuela's national flag to protest the election results that awarded Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro a third term, in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on July 30, 2024.
US declares Edmundo González rightful winner of Venezuela election
Based on exit polls from around 90% of the votes from last Sunday's election, opposition leaders say González beat Maduro by a large margin, and international pressure is building against Maduro. On Thursday, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia called on Caracas to release detailed tallies of the vote, and the European Union has said it would not recognize Maduro’s claimed victory without independent certification of the election results.
Still, the US announcement is unlikely to change anything on the streets of Venezuela, where protesters have been demanding Maduro to accept defeat. Demonstrations, which have led to violent clashes with authorities and hundreds of arrests this week, are ongoing.
But Washington's move is likely to spur on the protesters. President Joe Biden, meanwhile, is mulling whether to reintroduce sanctions against Venezuela, despite it being a critical source of oil.Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro speaks at the Supreme Court of Justice, in Caracas, Venezuela July 31, 2024.
Maduro offers “audit” of stolen election and threatens opposition with arrests
Protesters are marching in thestreets of Venezuela to demand that President Nicolas Maduro admit defeat in last Sunday’s election. Maduro claimed to have won by 51%, but the opposition says exit polls point to a strong win by their candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez. The US-based Carter Center, one of the few election-integrity watchdogs allowed to monitor the vote, agrees, noting that it “did not meet international standards of electoral integrity.”
On Wednesday, Maduro ordered the Supreme Court to conduct an audit of the election, which is a slight concession to cries for transparency, but he’s using an institution that is closely allied with his regime.
TheCarter Center added that the National Electoral Council, which formally proclaimed Maduro president for a third term through 2031 on Monday, demonstrated clear bias in his favor. It also pointed out that short voter registration deadlines and the exclusion of most of the country’s large diaspora (more than seven million Venezuelan citizens have fled during Maduro’s presidency) impacted the result.
The CNE has resisted showing precinct-level results, despite international calls for transparency. The regime is unlikely to produce adequate evidence to dispel doubts about the election, which will trigger more unrest – and will likely prompt the US to impose sanctions.
Still, Venezuela’smilitary has continued to back Maduro. Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino has referred to the protests as a “coup in progress,” and Maduro’s regime has suggested that opposition leaders should be arrested. But Eurasia Group’s Latin America Director Risa Grais-Targow says that is unlikely because it would only prompt more social unrest and an even tougher international response.
A demonstrator reacts when Molotov cocktails hit the ground in front of security forces during protests against election results after Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory in Sunday's presidential election, in Puerto La Cruz, Venezuela.
Venezuelans take to the streets after Maduro claims victory
Thousands of Venezuelans descended on downtown Caracas Monday to protest strongman President Nicolás Maduro’s claimed victory in Sunday’s elections. Independent exit polls suggested that opposition candidate Edmundo González defeated Maduro — an authoritarian who has overseen economic decline in the oil-rich nation — by a sizable margin.
What began as isolated spontaneous outbursts around the capital turned into a major demonstration by the evening. Protesters chanted “They robbed us!” and waved a banner reading “Venezuela, I want you to be free” in Spanish while authorities responded with riot police, tear gas, armored cars, and paramilitaries with firearms. In the eastern city of Cumaná, protesters reportedly tried to reach the national election authority headquarters but were repulsed by National Guard troops.
International pressure: Opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was banned from running by Maduro’s government, said Tuesday that Maduro’s “departure is irreversible” after receiving exit polls from 71% of polling places, which she says proves the opposition won beyond all doubt.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday said the US had “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people,” and called on election officials to publicly release “detailed” vote tabulations. For the time being, however, Washington does not plan to revoke the oil export licenses that were meant to incentivize Maduro to hold a fair election.
Blinken’s sentiments were echoed by leaders from Chile, Uruguay, Peru, Panama, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Argentina, and Guatemala. By late Monday, Venezuela had expelled all diplomats from those countries, plus the Dominican Republic.
What we are watching: It will be surprising if the CNE releases “detailed polling data that dispels international doubts,” says Risa Grais-Targow, an expert on Venezuela at Eurasia Group, but without it, foreign pressure seems likely to grow.
Perhaps more importantly, the will of the opposition and the people to resist what they see as a stolen election will be determinative. We’re watching for protests to continue — and Maduro’s response to become more heavy-handed.
“The military continues to completely support Nicolás Maduro,” says Eurasia Group and GZERO Media president Ian Bremmer. “And that means the willingness and ability to use force to suppress and repress opposition is very high.”
For more on Venezuela’s stolen election, watch Ian’s latest Quick Take here.
Maduro's dubious Venezuela win leaves Biden with few options
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Plenty of things we could be talking about, but I want to bring up Venezuela, where we just had elections in the last 24 hours, and they were very clearly stolen by Nicolás Maduro, puts the Biden administration in a difficult spot with a clearly failed policy.
It makes US look weak and certainly makes Maduro look strong, but not the outcome anyone wanted, even though it was pretty clearly expected. So there were exit polls, credible exit polls that showed that the unified opposition candidate, Edmundo González, won with at least 60% of the vote across the country, turnout very high, despite it being very difficult to get to a lot of voting spots and clearly with those including from the military and other regime forces that were trying to intimidate people on site, you still had well over 60% of registered voters actually turning out. But it was pretty clear, Maduro saying all the way through it was going to be lots of bloodshed if he didn't win, he was able to fix the outcome that he wanted and announced a win of 51% of the vote. There are very limited details that can back up the claims that they put forward. The Venezuelan government blocked key international observers, including lots of leaders from across Latin America that were unable to either land or deplane in Caracas.
The government impeded the transmission of voting results from a number of polling stations. Over the coming weeks, we’ll clearly see all sorts of additional evidence of irregularities from the opposition testimony of polling station witnesses, paper counts from polling stations that make it clear that this was stolen. And yet, very little is going to happen for a few reasons.
First of all, because the military continues to completely support Nicolás Maduro. And that means the willingness and ability to use force to suppress and repress opposition is very high. Secondly, there have been lots of efforts to engage in anti-government protests over the last decade. And the response has been violence and incarceration. And there isn't a lot of willingness of Venezuelans to continue with that average Venezuelans.
What we've seen instead are millions of Venezuelans that have left the country, fled the country. And that's what we're going to see again. We're going to see a huge amount of emigration. Colombia, of course, is the country that gets stuck with most of it. But there are many of them trying to get to Mexico, trying to get to the United States.
More pressure on a migration policy from the United States, from Biden, from Kamala Harris, that is seen as a failure and is clearly the biggest policy vulnerability that Harris has in her election bid. Also, having said all of this, the United States has been trying to do a carrot and stick approach, saying we're going to remove and reduce sanctions, allow oil licenses if you're willing to go ahead with a free and fair election. And Maduro wants the money, wants to be able to produce more oil and said, “sure, I'll go along,” when he was completely not credible, it was obvious to everyone he was not credible. And now the Biden administration is stuck with a failed policy and yet really doesn't want to put those oil licenses into sanctions, doesn't want to take them away because he doesn't want oil prices to go higher, especially not in an election environment with high inflation.
So what is he going to do? He's going to complain. He's going to say this was a sham, that the Americans support the Venezuelan people, and he'll find some additional sanctions that don't matter as much to put on board while Venezuela and Maduro, the dictator, looks like a winner. This is, unfortunately a bad day for representative democracy, a bad day for US policy, a good day for a dictator in Venezuela.