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What We're Watching: California's governor faces the heat, worrying signs for Argentina's president, a Malaysian deal
The world's fifth largest economy votes: Voters in the US state of California will vote Tuesday on whether to fire the state's Democratic Governor, Gavin Newsom, and replace him with someone else. Some 46 candidates have put their names on the ballot to take the governor's mansion from Newsom, the former San Francisco mayor who has been broadly criticized for his pandemic policies — in particular his decision to keep many public schools closed last year, as well as dining out at an exclusive restaurant while telling Californians to stay home. But while the recall effort initially had steam, low projected turnout and an uninspiring group of replacement options — including right wing shock-jock Larry Elder and Caitlyn Jenner of Kardashian fame — mean that Newsom will likely survive. The vote has national implications: there is increasing pressure on the state's 88-year old Senator Diane Feinstein to retire before her term is up in 2024, and it would be up to the governor to appoint her replacement. With the Senate currently divided 50-50, a Republican governor could flip control back to the GOP. But that's a long-shot: Republicans only make up 24 percent of the electorate, compared to 35 percent in 2003, the last time the state recalled its Democratic governor. Who took over after that? The Terminator.
Bad signs for Argentina's president: The coalition of President Alberto Fernandez got walloped over the weekend in mandatory primaries that are considered a dry-run for November's mid-term elections. His leftwing Peronist ticket pulled just 31 percent of the vote, almost ten points behind the center-right opposition Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) list, and won in just 8 of Argentina's 24 provinces. The result isn't hugely surprising, considering how bad things are in Argentina at the moment. Inflation is flirting with 50 percent, and Argentina has one of the highest death rates per 100,000 in the world. If these results repeat in November, Fernandez would lose his Senate majority, vastly complicating his ability to govern in the second half of his term. At the same time, his powerful Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who was president from 2007 to 2015, is breathing down his neck, pushing for more economic interventions in order to boost support in the election. With Argentina already reeling from a debt crisis, that could prove disastrous. Argentina has lurched from crisis to crisis in recent years, with big political swings to match. Indeed, the next two months could be particularly perilous.
A big deal in Malaysia: The country's ruling coalition has signed an agreement with the opposition, in a move that boost's the teetering prime minister, and could stabilize politics for a bit after a tumultuous few years. In August, current PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob became the third prime minister in as many years, with a majority so slim that the country's monarch called for a vote of confidence to prove that he was really in charge. The new agreement, meant to shore up political stability while the country grapples with the pandemic, grants the opposition a say on all legislation and matters of economic recovery, and lowers the voting age from 21 to 18. No date has been set for the confidence vote, but that will be the next big milestone for Ismail Sabri, who will now try and pass the 2022 national budget to boost confidence. A strong showing will put him in the clear for a while, and give Malaysia a chance to dig out of the pandemic without further political upheavals.
A view shows houses destroyed following a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Les Cayes, Haiti August 14, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Haiti trembles, Canada's snap election, Malaysia’s political mess
Haiti quake aftermath: If you thought things couldn't possibly get worse for Haiti, they just did. The chronically unstable country, still reeling from the July 7 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, was literally shaken on Saturday by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that has killed upwards of 1,400 people and destroyed at least 14,000 homes. What's more, Haitians are now also bracing for a tropical depression that will likely cause floods and landslides in quake-hit areas. Many foreign governments and aid groups have already sent some aid, though many are fearful of a repeat of the situation 11 years ago, when another powerful earthquake devastated the capital, but the assistance was poorly coordinated and failed to reach Haitians that needed it most, and a subsequent cholera outbreak was blamed on UN peacekeepers. When the humanitarian aid does trickle in, the gangs that control large swaths of Haiti say they'll let it through. It's a devastating blow to a country where around two-thirds of people live in poverty.
Trudeau's election gamble: Canada's center-left Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called a snap election for September 20 — more than two years before the next legislative vote was scheduled — in a bid to win the parliamentary majority. Back in 2019, Trudeau's party won the most parliamentary seats, but failed to win an outright majority. (Less than a year ago, Trudeau survived a no-confidence vote in parliament at a time his approval ratings had plunged over a series of ethics scandals.) For now, Trudeau has two things going for him. First, Canadians mostly approve of how he's handled the pandemic, including the economic stimulus, and Canada now leads the G20 in COVID vaccinations per capita. Second, his conservative rival Erin O'Toole is at odds with climate skeptics within O'Toole's own party and was recently panned for an attack ad on the PM. Most polls suggest Trudeau's Liberal Party will win a majority, but he could fall short if young voters turn to the progressive New Democratic Party. While Trudeau says he needs a new mandate to manage the next phase of the pandemic, critics argue it's a selfish and costly exercise when many Canadians are still suffering the COVID-fueled economic crisis.
Malaysia's never-ending political crisis: Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and his entire cabinet stepped down on Monday, putting an end to 17 months of fierce infighting among members of his coalition government. Muhyiddin will stay on as caretaker PM until the king picks a successor with enough support in parliament. The problem is that the two parties with the most seats don't have enough votes on their own, and as bitter rivals will block each other's candidate. The impasse can only be solved by calling an early election, an unpopular play amid a severe COVID outbreak, or to appoint a bipartisan national commission similar to the one that governed Malaysia during a period of racial unrest in 1969-1971. Former PM Mahathir Mohamed — who's no spring chicken at age 96, and caused much of the current mess after abruptly resigning in March 2020 — has offered himself to lead such a national unity government until the country recovers from the pandemic.What We're Watching: UAE-Saudi rivalry, South Sudan turns ten, Malaysian PM under pressure
Gulf grows between UAE and Saudi Arabia: Global oil prices surged this week to a six-year high after talks between the world's biggest oil-producing countries broke down. So what happened exactly? Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, usually close allies, are at loggerheads over how to boost OPEC oil production in the wake of the pandemic-induced economic crisis: the Saudis, along with the Russians, have proposed extending curbs on oil output levels for another eight months — a proposal vehemently rejected by the Emiratis. Abu Dhabi, for its part, has invested a lot to boost its output capacity, and now that global demand is up again it wants to renegotiate its production quotas within the OPEC framework. Riyadh, on the other hand, wants to cut supply levels so that prices remain high. It's a rare public spat between the two countries, whose leaders — Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed — enjoy a close personal bond, though a rivalry has been deepening in recent years as both try to establish their kingdoms as the top economic hub — and regional power — in the Gulf region.
South Sudan's bitter anniversary: July 9 marks 10 years since South Sudan gained independence from Sudan, becoming the world's youngest nation. At the time, hopes were high that the turmoil of Africa's longest civil war between Sudan's mostly-Muslim north and the Christian/animist south, would dissipate. But a decade later, many South Sudanese are still waiting for the good times to begin. Politically, the country is mired in instability as former rebel leaders who head the transitional government hold competing visions for the country's future. Meanwhile, inter-communal fighting between different ethnic groups has soared, showing the fragility of the nascent peace accord. Episodes of violence combined with drought and other extreme weather events have fueled a humanitarian disaster: the UN says that 2 out of 3 children in South Sudan are in desperate need of humanitarian support, while millions of people displaced by war remain stuck in refugee camps, with limited access to food, water and basic medical care in one of the UN's top 10 projected global hunger hotspots for this year. What's more, parts of the decade-old peace agreement have still not been implemented. Elections are supposed to be held in 2023 but many are calling for President Salva Kiir and his deputy Riek Machar, a former rebel leader, to step down because they have failed to effectively govern and provide basic services.
Malaysian PM under pressure: Malaysia's biggest political party has withdrawn its support for the fragile coalition government led by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. The United Malays National Organisation — which dominated the country's famously complicated politics until its shock election defeat three years ago — wants Muhyiddin to step down over his handling of the pandemic. (Malaysia is the third worst hit country in Southeast Asia). Yassin had declared a draconian state of emergency in January, which closed parliament for months, allowing the PM to govern by decree and diminishing UMNO's influence over policy. Without UMNO's votes, Muhyiddin now heads a minority coalition in parliament, which means he could be ousted without holding new elections through a no-confidence vote. Still that's unlikely because the only other politician capable of cobbling together a coalition is Muhyiddin's rival and anti-UMNO opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who's spent many years — including a few in jail — waiting to become Malaysia's prime minister. Meanwhile, the PM has agreed to partially suspend the state of emergency so lawmakers can return to parliament for a few days to discuss the country's political crisis.