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Trump's uncertain future amid new indictments
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
Will these new charges finally sink Trump?
And the answer is probably no. Special counsel Jack Smith this week announced a new set of indictments against President Trump for tampering with and destroying evidence in the case related to his mishandling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate. President Trump has survived multiple rounds of scandal, legal challenges, and ethical lapses that would've sunk any other politician. And politically, it sure looks like this one's not going to make much of a difference. He's still on top of the dog pile. That is the Republican presidential nomination process, and there probably won't be any consolidation or action on that until the first votes are cast in Iowa in January. What this does mean, however, is that it increases his legal jeopardy because it seems unlikely that the special counsel would've brought these additional charges if he didn't think he had sufficient evidence to find him guilty in a court of law.
So, for President Trump, the best hope he has is that it's impossible for Smith to find a jury that would convict him, or that he can get out of this in some kind of legal technicality because the evidence that's starting to mount against him, both for the mishandling of the documents and now for obstruction of justice sure looks pretty bad. The trial is set to begin in May of next year, which means that a guilty verdict could come down even before the Republican Convention in July. And if not then, then maybe before the November election, or of course he could be acquitted. If he is found guilty, the sentencing would be the big question. Does he get sentenced before the election and does he continue to run from office while he's serving in jail? So, lots of unprecedented questions coming out about this latest case as President Trump continues to destroy norm after norm of American politics.
Brazil insurrection over, but not the threat to democracy
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take to kick off your week.
And my god, Brazil, January 8th. We've seen something like that before. Yes, we have, if you're the United States. This was a large number, thousands of Brazilians wanting to stop the steal, that fake election that they had in Brazil just a couple months ago that Lula won, won it legitimately. But former President Bolsonaro refused to concede, made his chief of staff do it. And his supporters believe that the election was unfair, was rigged. And they've been in encampments for a couple of months now, thousands of them, and decided over the course of the weekend, a week after the inauguration, to forcibly occupy the headquarters, the most important buildings for the legislature, the Congressional palace, the executive, the Presidential palace, and the Supreme Court. And as a consequence, you saw all this damage, this vandalism being done, furniture being destroyed, windows being broken, art being stolen, you name it. And it's just an incredible shame, day of sadness for Brazil.
A few things that we should talk about. The first is that Bolsonaro has said nothing over the course of these last couple of weeks. He has certainly been promoting the idea that the election was stolen from him, but he's been in Florida. He was with Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago bringing in the New Year, and since then has been in Orlando where he rented a house. And most recently after the protestors came in and formed this insurrection, he basically said that he condemned the violence. And that's a smart thing for him to do because everyone in Brazil is condemning this right now. All the political parties and the court and the military leaders, some 1,200 have already been arrested that participated in the break-ins.
Also, there's going to be a major investigation specifically into who funded. This was well organized, it was financed. There were buses that brought the people in to Brasilia. Where did that money come from? There's a lot of speculation given some of the advising that Trump, MAGA types have been providing to Bolsonaro, his son, Eduardo, and others, people like Steve Bannon, the former chief strategist of Trump, that some of the money came from the United States. That's speculation. There's no proof, there's no evidence at this point, but there will be a serious investigation. And when that comes out, that will clearly lead to knock-on effects, both for relations with the United States as well as the impact of politicization and polarization inside Brazil itself. Keep in mind that if it is found that there are such fingerprints on these demonstrations, the far-right wing in Brazil will call it fake news and disinformation. And for them, it will be yet another argument, a conspiracy theory that the establishment is against them no matter what.
There's not much impact on Brazil in the near-term, in the sense that all of the protestors have been cleared out. Lula is president and there was an easy and peaceful transfer of power to his administration just as there ultimately was in the United States in 2021. That's not going to change, but long-term, this is an agitated, radical, and potentially violent, serious number of people in Brazil that are willing to break things. They're angry and they're willing to break things. And as Lula's popularity, which is in the high fifties now, which is pretty good, but low for a honeymoon in Brazil, slips, both because he's been there for a while and also because Brazil's economy is under a lot of pressure, the potential for this to become a much more serious threat to Brazilian democracy over time is very real indeed.
One final point that I would make, and that is that this is an American export. We mentioned in our Top Risks back a week ago, risk number three, weapons of mass disruption, where we said that the United States, which had been the leading exporter of democracy in the world back when the wall came down in '89, frequently hypocritically, frequently without success, but nonetheless, in 2022-23, the US has become the leading exporter of tools that destroy democracy, and that is very much the case with what we're seeing in Brazil right now. Social media algorithms leading to political polarization and leading to an export of these tools into other countries that are more brittle, whose democratic institutions haven't been around for as long, whose institutions are not as legitimized and aren't as entrenched, and has the potential to break those democracies.
Horrible to see that coming from the United States, not the intention of what these social media companies and these technology billionaires are trying to do, but it is certainly an indirect effect that comes from the business model, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Italy's first female PM Giorgia Meloni
Hard Numbers: Italy taps first female PM, judge sentences Bannon, UN sanctions “Barbecue,” Secret Mar-a-Lago papers
1: Giorgia Meloni was named Italy’s first female prime minister on Friday after receiving the mandate to form a government. The far-right head of the Brothers of Italy takes the helm amid worsening economic and energy crises. All eyes will be on her ability to keep together a discordant coalition.
4: Former Trump aide Steve Bannon was sentenced on Friday to 4 months in jail and fined $6,500 for contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena from the House committee overseeing the Jan. 6 investigation. Bannon remains free while the case goes to appeal. This comes as the committee on Friday also dealt former President Trump a subpoena to testify.
16: The UN agreed on Friday to sanction Haitian gang lord Jimmy Chérizier, known as Barbecue, for “severe human rights abuses.” The resolution, sponsored by the US and Mexico, says that Chérizier has contributed to severe economic and political crises currently plaguing the country, including a cholera outbreak that has killed at least 16 people in recent weeks.
13,000: At least some of the 13,000 documents seized from former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate contained secret information relating to US intelligence gathering on China and Iran, including Tehran’s nuclear program, according to a new Washington Post report. The Department of Justice continues to investigate the case.
Liz Truss arrives for the announcement of Britain's next Prime Minister at The Queen Elizabeth II Centre in London.
What We're Watching: Liz beats Rishi, Chile rejects charter change, Trump wins DOJ probe delay
Meet the UK's new PM
As expected, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss won the Conservative Party leadership race on Monday and will become the next British PM, replacing the disgraced Boris Johnson. Truss — a political chameleon who's popular with the Tory base — beat former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, a moderate technocrat, by a comfortable margin of 57% of party member votes. She now faces tough challenges at home and abroad. First, a looming recession compounded by a cost-of-living crisis and an energy crunch. Truss, who fancies herself as a modern Margaret Thatcher, plans to announce big tax cuts and perhaps a temporary freeze on energy bills for the most vulnerable Brits — which her economic guru has warned would be fiscally irresponsible. Second, a likely collision course with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol. Brace for rocky times ahead as Truss tries to convince Brussels to renegotiate the post-Brexit trade deal, which scrapped a hard border between Northern Ireland, part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. (No surprise then that Brussels is hardly looking forward to her moving into No. 10 Downing St.) On Tuesday, Truss will travel to Scotland to meet with Queen Elizabeth II, who as per tradition will ask her to form a government at the monarch's Balmoral summer residence.
Chileans say "no" to new constitution
On Sunday, Chileans gave a resounding thumbs down to the new constitution planned to replace the current Pinochet-era charter. Almost 62% of those who voted in a referendum rejected the proposed text, which would have expanded the role of the state in the economy, recognized Indigenous rights, enforced gender parity in public institutions, and required the government to protect the environment. Although more than three-quarters of Chileans voted in October 2020 to get a new constitution, this draft failed to get majority support because many viewed it as too complicated, long (388 articles), and above all progressive. The "no" victory is a major blow to leftist President Gabriel Boric, a big supporter of the referendum whose approval rating has plunged since he was elected five months ago. Boric now says he wants to call another constituent election; to do that, though, he'll need to negotiate in Congress with the center-right opposition, which will leverage the result to influence the process. Still, Chileans may have turned down this charter, but the popular appetite for a new one hasn’t died down — and politicians dragging their feet could lead to social unrest like the 2019 mass protests that triggered the first referendum.
Trump gets his "master"
Challenging the ongoing Department of Justice investigation over his alleged obstruction of justice, Donald Trump scored a legal victory on Monday, when a federal judge granted the former US president's request to appoint a “special master” – a third-party arbiter – to decide if any of the documents seized by the Feds when they searched his Mar-a-Lago residence are covered by executive privilege. (The DOJ opposes this on the legal grounds that the highly classified records, including many labeled "Top Secret," don’t belong to Trump.) Judge Aileen Cannon — appointed by the former president and confirmed by the Senate just days before the 2020 presidential election — wrote in her judgment that while there was no sign of "callous disregard" for Trump's constitutional rights, among the documents taken on Aug. 8 from his Florida residence were some of the former president's medical and tax documents, and that warrants a “brief pause” in the investigation. The order will delay the DOJ’s probe at least until Friday, the deadline set for both the prosecution and the defense to propose their candidates for arbiter.
Will the DOJ charge Trump after Mar-a-Lago raid?
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his analysis on US politics.
How bad does the Mar-a-Lago document situation have to get before it becomes a problem for President Trump?
The answer is very bad and probably much worse than what we know of today. In the three weeks since the raid at Mar-a-Lago, we've learned very little about the contents of the documents that former President Trump is alleged to have improperly been storing in his Florida compound.
But we have learned, at a minimum, he kept classified documents outside of a secure facility. And the government is now alleging that Trump's legal team lied about the number and nature of the documents being stored there, which made it much more difficult for them to get the documents back and set up the premises for this sensational raid at Mar-a-Lago.
Even though he continues to maintain that he declassified at least some of the documents stored at his residence, the facts laid out by law enforcement so far don't look good for former President Trump. And even elected Republican officials, who rallied to his support and attacked the FBI in the wake of the raid, are much quieter than they were initially. But polling continues to show that President Trump is strong. A recent Ipsos poll found that Trump is more popular in the Republican Party than President Biden is in the Democratic Party, with 59% of Republicans saying Trump should be the Presidential nominee in 2024, versus only 44% of Democrats who want Biden to be their nominee.
Can Trump be charged? Well, that's a question for the DOJ, who will have to measure the political and institutional implications of charging a former and potentially future president, the risks of federal law enforcement being delegitimized and seen as political actors by huge parts of the country, the way they were after investigations into Hillary Clinton's emails and the Trump campaigns alleged ties with Russia. And they'll have to weigh the chances of proving beyond a reasonable doubt that not only were these papers improperly stored, but that President Trump himself, and not one of his staff or associates, was criminally responsible for the improper handling.
This still seems like a very tall order that would play out in a trial that would take place in the middle of a presidential campaign that is likely to start as soon as this November. Almost anyone else surely would be charged with a crime based on what we know today. But for years now, Trump has avoided the kinds of political and legal liabilities and consequences that would've brought other people down. And so far, this doesn't look much different. Thanks for watching. This has been US Politics In a Little Over 60 Seconds.
Trump Mar-a-Lago affidavit: who accessed top secret documents?
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his analysis on US politics.
What does the redacted affidavit from the Trump raid tell us?
Not much. The government today released a redacted version of the affidavit that provided the basis for the sensational raid of the compound of former President Donald Trump, two weeks ago, that resulted in the removal of multiple boxes of what are alleged to be classified materials that were being improperly stored. The documents were heavily redacted, reportedly to protect sources. And the parts of the affidavit that are available do not tell us much beyond what was already revealed. As a result, we haven't learned much about the contents of these boxes since the raid, except that they may have contained government secrets that carry the highest levels of classification. And if you believe the leaks to the media, potentially information about the US nuclear program. Still, all of this is speculation.
President Trump maintains he did nothing wrong, that as president, he can verbally declassify anything he wants, and as the push to get back what he thinks of as "his documents". If the allegations in the affidavit and the search warrant are true, President Trump almost certainly broke the law by removing classified documents and storing them in places that were far from secure, including in places where foreign nationals or other guests at Mar a Lago could have potentially gained access to them. Politically, it is this question of access that is most interesting.
Republicans have largely rallied around the former president after the initial allegations that he was improperly handling classified documents. But if it turns out that government secrets are being shared at Mar a Lago, it will become much more difficult to defend him. There's no evidence of this to date however, The New York Times did report that the FBI is looking at surveillance video at the site, possibly to determine if there was a breach. Again, this is all anonymously sourced.
In the meantime, President Trump's popularity in the Republican Party is soaring as he continues to use what he calls his prosecution by the so-called deep state to further the politics of grievance by the political elites that took him from a reality TV star to the president of the United States in just five years.
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Former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Why did the FBI raid Trump’s Florida pad?
The US Justice Department on Friday released part of the FBI affidavit used to search Mar-a-Lago, President Trump’s sprawling estate in Florida – part of its probe into alleged mishandling of sensitive government documents. The heavily redacted legal brief – used to convince a judge to authorize the FBI search on Aug. 8 – was released after a federal judge ruled it was in the public’s interest to view the document some two weeks after FBI agents searched the former president’s estate. Authorities carried away 26 boxes of documents, which reportedly included several marked as classified and one as top secret. The episode has led to an uptick in aggressive rhetoric and some violence, particularly targeting law enforcement. It is extremely unusual for an affidavit to be made public before charges have been handed down. Trump has not been charged with a crime in this case, but the courts acquiesced to arguments that it is in the public interest – amid increased talk of a Trump bid in 2024 – to see the document that allowed the search.
A person wears a cap with images of Argentina's President Alberto Fernández and VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
What We’re Watching: Argentine VP’s legal woes, angry Haitians, Pakistan’s Qatari cash push, Trump’s DOJ suit
Is Argentina's VP on the ropes?
An Argentine prosecutor wants VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to spend 12 years behind bars and be disqualified from public office for life for alleged corruption from when her husband was president (2003-2007) and her own two terms in the top job (2007-2015). Cristina — popularly known by her first name — is accused of fixing public works contracts in the southern Patagonia region. The verdict drops in December, but it can be appealed and the process would likely drag on until late 2023 — just in time for the next election. Even if she's convicted, the influential VP is unlikely to see a jail cell. Although she won't have immunity if she loses her Senate seat, the Supreme Court is unlikely to ratify a guilty sentence that would be a political bomb. Still, the trial will have big implications for Cristina and the ruling Peronistas. First, a conviction might compel her to shape the 2023 presidential race by picking a loyal candidate and not the incumbent, Alberto Fernández (no relation), whom Cristina famously doesn't get along with. Second, the legal troubles might help Cristina fire up her base, especially if she decides to run for president. "She views all of this as a conspiracy between the judiciary, businessmen, and the opposition to remove her," says Eurasia Group analyst Luciano Sigalov.
Haitians demand PM’s resignation
Ça suffit! So say thousands of demonstrators in Port-au-Prince. Fed up with sky-high inflation, deepening poverty, and the spread of deadly gang violence, protesters are taking to the streets of Haiti’s capital to demand the resignation of PM and acting President Ariel Henry. Kidnappings and murder are on the rise — more than 200 were killed in just 10 days last month — and Haitians are increasingly worried about their mere survival. Henry has been in power since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, and many suspect that Henry was somehow behind the hit. At least one protester has reportedly died in this week’s demonstrations, and things could quickly grow worse. Some 50% of Haitians are living in poverty, struggling to keep up with inflation upwards of 30%, and saying: enough is enough.
Pakistani PM in Qatar, hat in hand
What would you do if you were staring down the barrel of default and your sworn enemy – who you’re trying to send to jail – was threatening mass unrest? Get out of Dodge, ask for money, and hope the political drama boils over before you return. That's what embattled Pakistani PM Shebhaz Sharif likely hopes to accomplish this week during his visit to Qatar. In Doha, Sharif will offer deals for Qatar to buy shares in Pakistani state-owned businesses like the national airline and — checks notes — the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City, as well as opportunities to sell Pakistan more energy. More importantly, Sharif's trip comes ahead of next week's big meeting to secure a $1.2 billion IMF bailout negotiated in 2019 by ... his predecessor Imran Khan, Sharif's other big headache. Khan, who was ousted in an April no-confidence vote, has been charged with violating the anti-terror act for threatening the judiciary in a fiery speech. The former PM has been summoned to appear before the court to answer the charge on Aug. 31, and Khan's supporters have responded by surrounding his residence to thwart his potential arrest. If the former cricket star is convicted, he faces a prison term and lifetime disqualification from politics.