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Ukraine ceasefire talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, March 11 2025.
Ukraine, US ceasefire - Russia's move?
Ukraine and the United States on Tuesday jointly announced a proposal fora 30-day ceasefire with Russia, pending approval from the Kremlin.
The deal, brokered during negotiations in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, comes the same day that Ukraine mounted itsbiggest drone attack to date on Moscow, killing at least three people, damaging buildings, and briefly shutting down four major airports. The show of force came after Russia stepped up attacks on Ukraine, following US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s shocking shouting match with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Feb. 28.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointedly addressed Moscow, saying “Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking. And now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no. If they say no, then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.”
The US also confirmed it willimmediately restore intelligence sharing and military aid with Kyiv, both of which had been suspended last week. A minerals deal between Ukraine and the US will also move forward “as soon as possible.” And in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macronurged 30 nations to begin security planning for Ukraine’s long-term stability.
Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer says he expects “the Europeans will come out and support that 30-day cease ceasefire in very short order.” But Putin’s response is another matter, he says, noting that the Russian leader is likely to try to see how quickly he can get a sit-down with Trump. That way “you don’t just talk about that deal, but you put it in the context of a much broader deal and you keep the Europeans out of it.” For more of Ian's insights on this, click here to watch his latest QuickTake.
Ukraine hopes for Europe's help as US negotiates with Russia
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: So much going on around the major confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. The Americans now meeting with the Russians in Riyadh while the Europeans have had an immediate emergency summit, many of them. Not all of the EU, but rather if you will, a coalition of the capable and willing in Paris yesterday.
Where is all of this going? Well, the Europeans clearly now understand that they need to come up with a deal that includes Ukraine before the Americans and Russians create some kind of grand bargain, or a deal will be made over their heads, and probably one that they are not going to be very happy with. President Zelensky of Ukraine is looking much more desperate in this environment, understanding that he is in trouble, not only because his forces are having a hard time maintaining the front lines, that's been true for a while now, but also because he is in danger of losing the United States.
The deal that was offered by Secretary of Treasury Bessent to Zelensky in Kyiv in the past days was exploitative. It was referred to by Zelensky as colonial. It would have meant 50% of development rights, exploitation rights of European resources, Ukrainian resources would go to the United States in a privately held company that the Americans would own. And that this was going to pay primarily for aid that had already been given to the Ukrainians. In other words, under the Biden administration, which is kind of unprecedented and staggering, but nonetheless was the offer. He immediately rejected it, but of course, that has led to a big rift all of a sudden between the United States and Ukraine at a time where Zelensky had been doing everything possible to say, "Yes, we know we need peace. Yes, we know we need to work with Trump. Trump is a peacemaker. We're going to engage." That is a very different position right now.
So, he is counting more on the Europeans, but can the Europeans give him anything? Well, coming out of the meeting in Paris, the answer is not so much. First of all, because Olaf Scholz, who is still chancellor for another week before the Germans have elections, said that it was premature to talk about peacekeepers. Premature? When the Americans are about to cut a deal with the Russians, it's not premature. It's way too late. So Olaf looked weak, he looked bitter, and he undermined any possible consensus. So, this meeting was a real problem.
Still, you had Macron, who was talking about the need to commit peacekeepers. You had the Brits, who wavered. They were saying they're definitely going to commit, but only if there's American backstop, which the United States wouldn't support. Poland had said, "No," because they need all of their troops in Poland, which is a sign of great weakness there and deep concern. The Baltics, the Nordics, they would certainly provide something. It is going to take time, though, and time is one thing they do not have.
We will see what comes out of the Marco Rubio meeting that he is leading his delegation in Riyadh together with a super team of major negotiators from Russia. I say super team because that's the way it's been presented on Russian state media. They have been, for the last 24 hours, extolling Trump, extolling the importance of the special presidential plane they are bringing down to Riyadh for these meetings, talking about the potential of recreating an order between the United States and Russia that is not just about Ukraine, but is about NATO containment. Is about engaging in, essentially carving up the world a sphere of influence orientation, where the Russians get a piece of the Arctic, and the Americans get a piece of the Arctic. And the Russians have their territorial ambitions codified, and the Americans have their own territorial ambitions codified. It is absolutely the antithesis of the world that the Europeans want and that frankly, the Americans had been standing for post-World War II.
Increasingly, the Europeans feel like they are fighting a two-front war, from the Russians on one side who are a direct national security threat, and the Americans who are saying that the Europeans' threat is from inside the house and that the EU is a problem, and you want people who are going to make Europe great again, like the AfD in Germany, who 80% of the Germans consider to be a neo-Nazi party. This is a crisis for the transatlantic relationship. It is a crisis for NATO. The secretary general, indeed, attending those meetings in Paris, what he has to say between the Europeans and the Americans, I'd hate to be in his position right now.
Anyway, lots happening every day. That's where we are right now, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Marco Rubio speaks after he is sworn in as Secretary of State by U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, on Jan. 21, 2025.
Tough talk on Taiwan
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clashed with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in their first phone call on Friday over the independence of Taiwan, according to State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce. During the conversation, Wang reaffirmed China’s position that the island nation is part of China and reportedly told Rubio “I hope you will act accordingly,” a Chinese phrase usually employed by a superior warning a student or employee to behave and act responsibly. Rubio has previously called Beijing the top US threat and was twice sanctioned by China in 2020.
And Rubio may have more wars of words with Wang in the future. China is reportedly ramping up efforts to encourage the independence movement on the Japanese island of Okinawa, which hosts 70% of US bases in the region – and is a mere 466 miles from Taiwan.
Chinese state media frequently highlights US military crimes in Okinawa, and Chinese social media propaganda claims most Okinawans favor independence. A poll published in May 2022 showed that only 3% of residents favored full independence, although 48% supported greater autonomy through a federal arrangement with Tokyo.
Reports suggest Beijing also tried but failed to establish an underground police station in Okinawa and plans to establish a Ryukyu Research Centre to remind locals of the island’s status as a former independent empire until it was annexed by Japan in 1609. Beijing has also been conducting a “charm offensive,” stressing Okinawa’s cultural ties to China – and strengthening its claim to the island.Trump’s Team of … Reprisals?
Trump team … Assemble!
Usually, obsession with team building is reserved for the world of sports, not politics. There are Hollywood movies about NFL draft day, and the trade deadlines in basketball, hockey, and baseball command all-day TV specials. But those seem trivial compared to the global obsession with Trump Team 2.0. Who is on it, and what does it mean for the next four years?
Cabinet-building has long been crucial for both the success of a presidency and for the direction of the United States. From the presidencies of Abraham Lincoln to Donald Trump, the team often tells the tale of power.
After narrowly winning the election of 1860, Lincoln knew the United States was lurching toward civil war. He needed a united team to take on the emerging secessionist Confederacy, but he didn’t choose loyalists. Instead, he made a radical choice to bring in his chief opponents like William Seward, Salmon Chase, and Edward Bates. In her bestselling book, Doris Kearns Goodwin called this a “Team of Rivals.”
Initially, it looked like a rookie mistake. Seward tried to sabotage Lincoln, leaking false announcements about a surrender of Fort Sumter, the place where, soon after, the first shots of the Civil War were fired.
But Lincoln asserted his leadership without alienating his team, and Seward soon became one of his closest confidants. Co-opting and including his chief opponents is roundly hailed as one of Lincoln’s finest strategies.
If Lincoln put together a team of rivals, Trump has assembled a team of reprisals. This is a group of ardent MAGA loyalists, not rivals — as Ian Bremmer pointed out in our GZERO video. Their job is to radically transform every part of government, from trade policy to foreign policy. There are three goals: reformation, reduction, and reprisal. And that last point is critical. The foundational promise Trump made to voters was to smash “the enemies within.” And that is exactly what this team is built to do.
Here is a starter menu:
- The Deep State: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed to actively find “efficiencies” and dismantle large swaths of the government. “You’re fired” will be the watchwords.
- The Military: Pete Hegseth, the veteran and Fox News commentator, is headed for the secretary of defense job, where he has long said he would fire all generals who support programs like Diversity, Equity and Inclusion.
- The Border: Tom Homan, the nominated “border czar,” has warned all illegal aliens to get ready for mass deportation, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will be Trump’s Homeland Security chief working alongside Homan.
- The Department of Education: Trump has promised to close this down completely to stop the so-called “woke agenda.”
- The Environmental Protection Agency: Expect former New York Rep. Lee Zeldin to gut EPA regulations. He has already signaled his priorities, with a social media post saying he will “restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs and make the US the global leader of AI. We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water.” The EPA might have to change its initials to the DBD, for Drill, Baby, Drill. Still, there are some signs of resistance here. Even the CEO of ExxonMobil pushed back, saying, “I don’t think the challenge or the need to address global emissions is going to go away.”
- Trade: China hawk Sen. Marco Rubio will be the secretary of state, likely overseeing a world of high tariffs that will trigger trade wars alongside the existing wars already raging.
- The Legal System: Matt Gaetz’s nomination for attorney general is taking the most incoming. Gaetz believes he and Trump are victims of Democratic “lawfare,” and he’s ready to hit back. “The hammer of Justice is coming,” declared Elon Musk on X, lest anyone think there will be no reprisals.
To Trump supporters — and that means the majority of voters — this is exactly what they wanted. Expect them to follow through on everything you heard on the campaign trail. As folks used to say, take Trump and his team both seriously and literally.
The president-elect has long claimed he is the victim of multiple attacks from the establishment because he promised to “drain the swamp” and, unlike in 2016, he’s wasting no time assembling a team to fight back. Of the many things to expect from Donald Trump, reprisals are at the top of the list.
How to cover the Trump team fairly?
Covering this transition in a meaningful, insightful way requires genuine balance and adherence to fairness. In the current climate of hyper-polarization, anything but praise for the president-elect can be cast as “woke” bias from the “lamestream” media. On the other hand, anything positive about Trump is often cast as supplicant cozying up to a kleptocracy.
Neither is helpful.
The key is not to focus on the fertilized fears on social media but on the real actions of the Trump team. What will they actually do? Who is benefiting from the radical change?
What will be the impact of their policies on the economy, rights, security, climate, and social coherence?
Each question will have a specific answer, and tracking them with facts and credibility will be key over the next four years. In an environment where distrust and disinformation are weaponized, straight talk and nonpartisan insight will become more valuable than ever.
This is just the beginning of the second Trump era, and it will be significantly more transformative than the first. Trump’s Team of Reprisals is ready to do exactly what they promised on the campaign trail, best summed up in three words: fight, fight fight.
The Veepstakes: Who will Donald Trump pick as his running mate? Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik, Doug Burgum and Marco Rubio
The Veepstakes: Who will be Donald Trump's VP pick?
With Donald Trump set to announce his vice presidential running mate in the coming days, we explore the possible contenders — and their viability.
Tim Scott

Tim Scott
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who withdrew from the race for the Republican nomination last November, has been campaigning hard for Donald Trump – and he has his eye on becoming vice president. But will the GOP’s only Black senator get Trump’s VP nod?
Raised by a single mom in Charleston, South Carolina, Scott became the first Black Republican elected to any office in the Palmetto State since the 19th century when he won his 1995 Charleston city council race. In 2008, he won a seat in the statehouse and went on to the House of Representatives in 2010. After one term, then-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley appointed him to fill a vacant Senate seat, and he has easily won reelection three times. He is arguably the most recognizable elected Black Republican in office today. (Could Tim Scott become Trump's No. 2? Continue to read here.)
Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik
Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, a rising star of the GOP, is one of the few women on former President Donald Trump’s vice president shortlist.
When Stefanik first entered the national political scene in 2014, she was considered the new face of the Republican Party. At the time, she was the youngest woman ever elected to Congress and widely considered a moderate. Fast-forward to 2024, and Stefanik has drastically shifted to the right. She’s a full-blown MAGA Republican, routinely defending Trump and echoing his talking points – including the white nationalist “great replacement” conspiracy theory. (Could Stefanik, now a full-blown MAGA Republican, become Trump's running mate? Continue to read here.)
JD Vance

JD Vance
CNP/INSTARimages.com via Reuters
From holler to white collar. That’s the unusual life arc of J.D. Vance, the 39-year-old junior senator from Ohio.
Born into extreme poverty in rural southern Ohio, he grew up in the holler – “the hollow” – surrounded by abuse, addiction, and despair. But he made it out: He joined the Marines, graduated from Yale Law School, and became a successful tech venture capitalist.
He recounted all of this in his bestselling 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” which became required reading after Trump’s shock victory over Hillary Clinton spurred interest in the disaffection of white working-class America. In the book, Vance criticized a culture of victimhood and dependency among poor whites while also blasting the establishment’s condescension and neglect. (Could Vance make it to the very top? Continue to read here.)
Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio
Mariana Robertson via Reuters
Florida’s senior senator earned the nickname “Lil’ Marco” for challenging Donald Trump during the 2016 primaries, but he has since forged a close alliance with the former president – so much so that some believe he could be tapped for No. 2.
Rubio was born in Miami to Cuban immigrants who arrived before the 1959 communist revolution — contrary to claims he had long made of them fleeing from Fidel Castro. He speaks fluent Spanish and got his start in politics in 1998 as a city commissioner in West Miami, where the 2000 census showed 87% of residents spoke Spanish as a first language. (Could Rubio stand a chance of becoming the first Latino VP? Find out more here.)
Doug Burgum

Doug Burgum
When Doug Burgum launched a campaign for the Republican presidential nomination focused on economic growth, energy production, and national security, few Americans outside of the Flickertail State had heard of the former software CEO turned governor of North Dakota. Just to get the 40,000 unique donors needed to make the debate stage, he had to give out $20 gift cards in return for $1 campaign donations. While he’s still far from a household name, he has emerged as a dark horse favorite to become Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate.
Who is he? The67-year-old Burgum hails from Arthur, North Dakota — a town of roughly 300 residents — and worked as a consultant at McKinsey & Co before leveraging his family farm to start an accounting software company called Great Plains Software, which he sold to Microsoft for $1.1 billion in 2001. (Would Trump fancy a biz-savvy VP pick? Find out more here.)
Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate?

Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? Vivek Ramaswamy, Ivanka Trump, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Tulsi Gabbard & Byron Donalds
Luisa Vieira/GZERO Media
Donald Trump has been teasing his vice presidential pick for weeks, but with the Republican National Convention kicking off next week, he’s likely to make it official — and soon.
Right now, the front-runners appear to be Sens. Marco Rubio and JD Vance, along with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. But what about the contenders who aren’t grabbing headlines yet remain on Trump’s radar? Here is everything you need to know about the dark-horse candidates.
Nikki Haley: We know, we know, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s former ambassador to the UN fired shots at the former president as his main opponent in the primary. But just because she once challenged him doesn’t mean she wouldn’t be a valuable running mate. (Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? Find out more about his wildcard prospects here.)
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Sen. Marco Rubio
Veepstakes: Could Marco Rubio become the first Latino VP?
Florida’s senior senator earned the nickname “Lil’ Marco” for challenging Donald Trump during the 2016 primaries, but he has since forged a close alliance with the former president – so much so that some believe he could be tapped for No. 2.
Rubio was born in Miami to Cuban immigrants who arrived before the 1959 communist revolution — contrary to claims he had long made of them fleeing from Fidel Castro. He speaks fluent Spanish and got his start in politics in 1998 as a city commissioner in West Miami, where the 2000 census showed 87% of residents spoke Spanish as a first language.
Rubio won election to the Florida House of Representatives through a special election in 1999 and served until 2008, rising to Speaker in 2006. He briefly taught at Florida International University before winning a seat in the US Senate, where he has served since 2011. He ran for president in 2016 but failed to outrun the Trump juggernaut – and dropped out after coming in second in his home-state primary. During Trump’s first term, he became an overt loyalist and voted to acquit Trump in his second impeachment trial for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.
He’s a moderate who could make independents feel less anxious about voting for Trump, but Eurasia Group’s US Managing Director Jon Lieber says choosing him would mean the Trump campaign is “confused about their vulnerabilities since Rubio brings nothing the other candidates don’t.”
Florida and the Cuban vote are already securely in the Republican column, and Rubio isn’t likely to bring over the working-class midwesterners Trump needs to pull away from Biden.
To learn about Trump’s other possible VP picks, check out our Veepstakes series here.
Trump's VP pick: The short list
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this month. Who Trump picks as his VP.
The big story in US politics this month is going to be the debates which are going to be one of the key moments of the campaign, given the enormous downside risk they present for President Biden due to his age. But the other big event of the summer, other than the conventions, is going to be who Trump picks for his vice presidential candidate. And there's been a number of names floated by the campaign, some more conventional than others. And they each have their own set of strengths.
Some of the more surprising names would be JD Vance, who Trump's family is allegedly pushing for him to pick. Vance is a senator from Ohio and one of the leading lights in the populous Republican movement. Never mind his Yale and venture capital background, he is somebody that claims he's out there fighting for the working class, which could help Trump.
Tim Scott, an African-American senator from South Carolina would help bring diversity to the ticket. Perhaps match up well against Kamala Harris in the debates, and is a pretty telegenic defender of Trump who has been outspoken in his praise for the former president since he was defeated in the primary.
Another potential candidate is Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, a smaller state. But he's a rich man, a successful business guy who's been a very effective Trump surrogate. And he's emerged as a potential pick in the last few months.
You also have a handful of other senators, like Marco Rubio from Florida, who would put a Hispanic on the ticket, or Tom Cotton, who's been a harsh Trump critic in the past, but would bring a lot of national security credibility to President Trump. There's a couple of House members that are on the short list, unclear if they have the experience or TV presence to be what Trump is looking for.
Typically candidates will choose a vice president based on some political liability that they think they have, whether it's the balance of the ticket in terms of age or gender or racial identity or maybe it's a regional thing. Mike Pence was chosen because he was strong with evangelical voters and Trump was not. It isn't exactly clear what Trump's going for with his VP pick. Probably it's somebody who he thinks is loyal to him, somebody that can defend him well on TV, and probably someone that's not going to show him up too much as an actual vice president. Really any one of the names on this list could achieve those goals, now but what they probably won't do is give Trump a big boost in this campaign, which is going to be about the two headliners, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
NatCon 2022: Conservatives rethink foundations of the American right
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC reports from the 2022 National Conservative Conference in Miami, Florida.
What is national conservatism?
I'm down here in Miami, Florida, attending the third annual National Conservative Conference where we're hearing from a large group of conservatives who want to rethink the foundations that have held together the American Right for the last 50 years. Part of this is in response to Donald Trump's surprising election in 2016 and his dismantling of the conservative coalition that had supported the Republican Party to that point. Another big theme that we're hearing about is a reaction to what folks here call the woke Left who, in their mind, have dominated educational, business, and cultural institutions for a very long time and have pushed out the traditional Christian conservative values that built this country.
Coming out of that, some of the conference organizers want to explicitly allow states to bring back religious education into schools in order to make the United States once again a more explicitly Christian nation. Other folks here put an emphasis on de-emphasizing the role of free market economics, in what used to be known as the conservative three-legged stool between cultural conservatives, national conservative hawks, and free market economics. They want to take economics out of this altogether and capitalize on the political gains that were made by President Donald Trump, pushing a much more economically populist type of political philosophy.
And then I think one of the final big themes that we're hearing about today is that the era of limited government is over in the US. For the folks that are gathered here today, they see a much more robust role for taking power in the US and then using that power to advance conservative causes. For example, by reforming the civil service —— one speaker talked about putting term limits in place, not only for elected officials, but also for federal bureaucrats —— so that you didn't have these group of empowered Americans who had these jobs for decades and decades and could push policies that the national conservative movement does not like.
The conference has gathered together a range of folks from political philosophers, religious leaders, several leading Republican politicians including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Florida Senator Rick Scott, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, along with a number of conservative intellectuals who are engaging in this robust debate around the future of what conservatism is in the US politics.
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