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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy awards a Ukrainian service member at a position near a frontline, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 22, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Zelensky’s Bakhmut message, Rishi’s post-Brexit win, Trudeau’s take on Haiti, Ethiopia’s peace progress
Russia and Ukraine score points where they can
Volodymyr Zelensky visited frontline troops in war-ravaged Bakhmut, located in Ukraine’s eastern province of Donetsk, on Wednesday as Russian drones struck across the country. While planning for the trip was surely well underway before Vladimir Putin’s surprise stop in Russian-occupied Mariupol last weekend, the contrast underlined Zelenksy’s signal of defiance.
By appearing in Bakhmut very near the fighting, Zelensky reminded the world that, six months after Putin mobilized 300,000 new Russian soldiers for a deeper advance into Ukraine, even the small city of Bakhmut remains beyond their grasp.
In other war news, Russia has warned it will respond harshly to shipments from the UK to Ukraine of anti-tank munitions made from depleted uranium. Moscow claims this step adds an escalatory nuclear element to the conflict. In response, the UK insists the Russian position is propaganda, that the use of depleted uranium is common in anti-tank weapons, and that it contains nothing that can be used to make nuclear or radiological weapons. Finally, Russia has announced a plan to raise an additional $8 billion in revenue by changing the way oil profits are taxed.
All these stories underscore the reality that, while little has changed on the battlefield, Russians and Ukrainians are still looking for every small advantage they can gain in what looks increasingly like a war of attrition.
Has Brexit got “done” yet?
In a win for PM Rishi Sunak, the British House of Commons on Wednesday passed a reworked post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, which was agreed to last month with the European Commission.
Essentially, the proposal known as the Windsor Framework creates two lanes for trade: a faster-flowing green lane for goods transiting only between Britain and Northern Ireland and a red lane with more rigorous customs checks for goods bound for Ireland and elsewhere in the EU. It is unlikely to come into effect for several months as details are ironed out, officials say.
Still, despite the big margin of victory, more than 20 Tories – including Sunak’s two predecessors Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – voted against the measure, with Johnson saying it would mean that the UK won't be able to fully embrace the benefits of Brexit (what benefits, he didn’t say). It also signals that in the run-up to next year’s general election, Sunak will continue to deal with a vocal Euroskeptic wing within his party.
Meanwhile, six representatives from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party also rejected the vote, suggesting that the DUP would not lift its boycott on the Northern Ireland legislature, which began almost a year ago. The lack of resolution on this front will make for awkward optics as President Joe Biden heads to Belfast next month to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles.
Trudeau’s take on Haiti
President Joe Biden heads north on Thursday for his first presidential visit to Canada, where he and PM Justin Trudeau are expected to discuss a variety of issues, from defense and immigration to trade and Ukraine (see our look at likely agenda items here). But Biden is also expected to make some demands about … Haiti.
The situation in the Caribbean nation has deteriorated in recent months. Police have lost control to local gangs, and more than 200 Haitians were killed in the first half of March alone.
The Biden administration is reluctant to get more involved itself but wants Canada to take the lead in addressing the chaos in Haiti. Why Canada? The country has a long track record as a peacekeeper and has had prior involvement (for better or worse) in Haiti, making it an obvious choice from Washington’s perspective. An uptick in Haitian migrants seeking entry to the US and Canada raises that urgency further.
But Trudeau says that “outside intervention” can’t bring long-term stability to the country, and it’s hard to argue with the historical record on that. Meanwhile, many in Haiti worry that outsiders would merely prop up unelected acting PM Ariel Henry. And it didn’t help that Haiti’s largest newspaper ridiculed the recent deployment of two Canadian ships to patrol the coast.
All of this puts Trudeau in a tough spot: Biden wants him to be a reliable security partner beyond Ukraine, but the political fallout from a failed entanglement in Haiti could be disastrous for him. While the Canadian leader will likely make a commitment of some sort for Haiti, will it be enough to satisfy Biden or change the dynamics in Haiti itself?
*From trade and migration to defense, culture, and technology, the US and Canada need each other more than ever. To meet the moment, GZERO Media is launching GZERO North, a new weekly newsletter offering an insider’s guide to the very latest political, economic, and cultural news shaping both countries. Subscribe today!
Ethiopia, TPLF take steps in tenuous peace
The Ethiopian government is removing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from its list of terrorist organizations, part of a peace deal with the rebel group signed last November. The decision moves the country closer to what observers hope is an enduring peace after a brutal two-year civil war that has claimed an estimated 600,000 lives.
The situation is very delicate. The agreements don’t include all of the various combatants and are vague about who controls certain disputed territories. And while all sides reportedly committed war crimes, many Tigrayans believe the deal doesn’t hold the Ethiopian federal government accountable. PM Abiy Ahmed’s resistance to a UN investigation inspires little hope.
Still, the momentum is towards peace, for now. Economic interests are part of the reason why. Ethiopia is in bad shape, as the country is wracked by famine, drought, and an estimated reconstruction price tag of $20 billion. A lasting peace would enable Ethiopia to reopen two-year-old talks with the IMF on a $26 billion loan restructuring plan, which was interrupted by the war. Still, with so much bad blood – will these incentives be enough to bind the former combatants to a durable peace? All parties must still tread very carefully …
A service member of pro-Russian troops stands guard next to a combat vehicle, with the symbol "Z" seen on its side, in Mariupol, Ukraine.
What We're Watching: A rare win for Putin, Chile drafts constitution, North Korea's COVID catastrophe
Putin enjoys rare win in Ukraine
This week brought more bad news for Vladimir Putin and his invasion. Ukrainian fighters have pushed Russians back from the city of Kharkiv, the fight for the Donbas appears to have stalled, and Russian commentators are becoming more open about their country’s military failures on the internet and even on state-controlled TV. But the surrender of hundreds of Ukrainian fighters from a Mariupol steel plant gives Russia a genuinely important win. First, it clears away the final obstacle to establishing a land bridge that connects Russian-occupied Crimea with the Russian border. Second, it’s a big propaganda win for Putin, who insists the war is aimed partly at “de-Nazifying” Ukraine. Many of those who surrendered belong to the Azov Battalion, a group with a history of ultra-nationalist, white-supremacist politics. Ukraine’s government says it hopes the now-captive troops can be traded for captive Russians, but Russia’s parliament may ban any release of Azov prisoners. Ultimately, Putin will decide their fate. Are they most valuable to him as trophies, or as pawns who provide him with an opportunity to appear magnanimous?
Chile drafts new constitution
Two years ago, the streets of usually staid Chile exploded with inequality protests so big that the government was forced to start the process of rewriting the country’s constitution, a text rooted in the days of Augusto Pinochet’s right-wing dictatorship. Earlier this week, after 10 months of haggling, the constituent assembly made the new draft public. It expands the social safety net, bolsters the power of workers, recognizes Chile’s indigenous population, and establishes rights to healthcare and water. It also streamlines the political system, scrapping the Senate in favor of a single chamber legislature. But it stops short of guaranteeing a right to housing (a major demand of progressive protest leaders), limits state power over the lucrative mining sector, and sticks clearly to the country’s market-based economic model. What happens next? Chileans will vote on a streamlined version of the document in a September plebiscite. So far, support is weak: 46% of those polled said they opposed it, with only 38% in favor. Enthusiasm for the draft will likely grow as the government drums up support, but even if the document is approved, it will probably be by a narrow margin in a deeply polarized society.
Can North Korea overcome COVID wave?
The Hermit Kingdom says nearly 1.5 million people have come down with fevers and that 56 have already died amid the country’s “first” coronavirus outbreak. But whatever Kim Jong Un’s state-controlled media is reporting, it’s bound to be much worse, and this is in a severely isolated country with poor access to COVID tests and no vaccines. Kim has mobilized his military to help distribute medications and ramp up tracing. Having long pushed an ideology of self-reliance, he’s likely to accept aid from China, North Korea’s sole ally, but will refuse any support from South Korea, the United States, or COVAX, the global vaccine initiative. Meanwhile, the North Korean economy and food supply, already in dire straits following two years of pandemic-related closures, face even greater disruptions and shortages, putting millions at risk. The outbreak could offer Kim a chance to crack down and control his population even more, but rising hunger and deaths could also lead to destabilizing discontent.US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi meets Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv.
What We're Watching: Pelosi in Kyiv, Indian scorcher, Modi tours Europe
Pelosi visits Ukraine — will Biden go next?
Over the weekend, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi became the highest-level US official to visit Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion. Pelosi met with President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday amid growing pressure from Kyiv for President Joe Biden to travel to the country, which Zelensky feels would be a symbolic show of US support for Ukraine. Biden has so far been non-committal, but Pelosi's trip is arguably more significant at this time, given that Biden wants the US Congress to approve $33 billion in additional aid for Ukraine. Meanwhile, a long-awaited operation was underway to evacuate 100,000 people trapped in a steel plant in Mariupol, the only part of the besieged Ukrainian port city not yet occupied by the Russians. The UN is coordinating safe passage with the Red Cross for the evacuees to reach Zaporizhzhia.
India on fire
For weeks, vast swaths of northwest India — along with parts of neighboring Bangladesh and Pakistan — have been suffering a record-breaking "heat dome" that pushed surface temperatures beyond a blistering 60 C (140 F) on Saturday. On top of putting hundreds of millions at risk of death from extreme heat and fires, the prolonged scorcher has worsened an already acute shortage of coal due to high global prices and the war in Ukraine. This is a big problem because most Indian cities rely on coal-burning plants to generate electricity, which could mean power cuts for hospitals, offices, and factories. What's more, the heatwave has forced farmers to harvest crops early, throwing a wrench into India's plans to export more wheat to make up for the shortfall in production from Russia and Ukraine. So, what'll PM Narendra Modi do about it? Keep reading ...
Modi goes to Europe
On Monday, Narendra Modi is kicking off visits to Germany, Denmark, and France, where he will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. The main agenda item? Making progress on a proposed EU-India free trade agreement, one of several FTAs that Modi wants to secure to attract foreign investment to help the Indian economy recover from the pandemic. But the elephant in the room will be India's neutrality on the Russian war in Ukraine and recent moves to buy cheap Russian oil despite sanctions – policies at odds with EU unity against Russia and long-term plans to wean the continent off Russian energy. Still, don’t expect the Europeans to put too much pressure on the Indians on such a prickly issue.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds a press conference at a metro station in Kyiv.
What We're Watching: Zelensky meets top US officials, Indonesia hoards palm oil
US officials visit Kyiv
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky spent Sunday waiting for a visit from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the highest-level American delegation to visit Kyiv since the Russian invasion began. Zelensky reportedly told the senior US officials that Ukraine needs more powerful weapons to resist the Russians. After the meeting, Blinken announced that the US would reopen its embassy in Ukraine (in the western city of Lviv) and pledged more military funding to Ukraine in addition to the $800 million in military support Biden announced on Thursday, which included heavy artillery, ammunition, and tactical drones. But Kyiv is also asking for long-range air defense systems and fighter jets. The Americans have rebuffed similar earlier requests and blocked NATO allies like Poland from supplying Soviet-era warplanes to avoid risking a direct military confrontation with Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine is trying to set up humanitarian routes for escape from the besieged port city of Mariupol, where an estimated 100,000 people remain stuck with little food, water, or heat.
Indonesia’s palm oil export ban
In the latest ripple effect from the food price crisis spurred by Russia's war in Ukraine, Indonesia on Friday banned the export of palm oil, the most consumed edible oil in the world. President Joko Widodo wants to address a domestic shortage that has caused prices to skyrocket (and Indonesians to protest). This ban is a very big deal because Indonesia is the world's top producer of palm oil, accounting for more than half of the global supply. More broadly, it comes amid soaring prices for cooking oil due to the conflict between the two sunflower superpowers, Russia and Ukraine. The ban is expected to be short-lived and for exports to resume once the country stocks up enough palm oil for the price hike to subside. Until then, Indonesia’s top customers — China and India — will feel the pinch.British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
What We're Watching: Boris in trouble, Shanghai eases lockdown, Mariupol's last stand
Is Boris still in the woods?
Few politicians have benefited as much from the war in Ukraine as British PM Boris Johnson, who was facing potentially career-ending crises before the Russian invasion. Chief among them was “partygate,” the scandal over him and his staff attending social gatherings during COVID lockdowns. Johnson was fined for the breach — a legal first for a sitting PM — but his pro-Ukraine advocacy has helped galvanize Brits who are now more concerned by Russian aggression, as well as the rising cost of living. So is Johnson out of the woods? Not quite. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer has called for a vote in the House of Commons Thursday on whether a special committee should investigate claims that Johnson misled parliament. British ministerial code dictates that MPs caught lying are expected to resign. The person who usually enforces this rule is … the PM, but Johnson says he has no intention of stepping down, and it’s unlikely enough Tory lawmakers would back his ouster. Still, the optics are poor for the Conservative Party: MPs will have to go on the record in support of a PM who has a disapproval rating of 65%.
Shanghai eases lockdown
Doors in China’s largest city are reopening. On Wednesday, Shanghai officials further relaxed lockdown restrictions, claiming that COVID-19 was “under effective control” for the first time in some areas. Almost half of Shanghai's 25 million residents will now be able to leave their homes following a three-week lockdown, although some must stay in their neighborhoods, and large gatherings remain verboten. The lockdown has been as frustrating for residents as it has been for China's economy, which the IMF now predicts will grow by only 4.4% this year. That’s 1.1 percentage points lower than the earlier target set by the ruling Communist Party. So, was zero-COVID worth it in Shanghai? Critics of the policy question whether 17 deaths from the virus justify the harsh restrictions. But there's a counter-argument: Shenzhen locked down when per capita infection rates were much lower than in Shanghai, and it went back to normal sooner and with somewhat less economic pain.
Mariupol’s last stand, Putin’s scary new missile
The leader of Ukrainian fighters holed up in the strategic port city’s massive steel plant, their last redoubt, said Wednesday that he and his men were badly outnumbered, low on supplies, and interested in being spirited away to a safe, third country. Meanwhile, a planned evacuation of civilians from the besieged and wrecked city reportedly failed after Ukraine accused Russia of violating a humanitarian ceasefire meant to allow thousands to leave. The overall number of refugees fleeing Ukraine has now surpassed 5 million, according to the UN, with more than 7 million displaced inside the country. With heavy fighting erupting across the Donbas amid Russia’s renewed offensive there, those numbers are expected to rise.
Meanwhile, as Russia-NATO tensions continue to simmer, Russia successfully tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday, which Putin said would make Moscow’s adversaries “think twice” about messing with the Kremlin. The Sarmat missile can carry 10 warheads and is capable of evading “all” missile defenses, Putin said. The editor of Russia’s main defense publication said the weapon could “put an end to the history of any country” that threatens Russia.
For early birds: Be sure to catch Signal writer Alex Kliment, a perpetually recovering Russia analyst, on CBS on Thursday around 7 a.m. EST. He’ll be discussing the latest in Ukraine.
Local resident gather in a courtyard near a block of flats damaged in the southern port city of Mariupol.
What We're Watching: Battle of Donbas, Turkish attack on Kurds in Iraq, violence in Delhi
The Battle of Donbas begins
In eastern Ukraine, the Battle of Donbas, the much-anticipated storm of destruction expected in the war’s next phase, has begun, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Monday. Heavy fighting is reported in the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv regions. In other parts of Ukraine, and beyond its borders, millions are watching to see what happens next. Will Russian soldiers make quick gains on the ground? The Kremlin is wondering why it’s taking so long to seize control of the port city of Mariupol and finally declare a big battlefield victory. Residents of Kyiv and Lviv are waiting to see whether deadly Russian artillery strikes on their cities are short-term payback for Russia’s loss of its Black Sea flagship or something that will continue. In nearby countries – Lithuania, for example – locals are worried about the war potentially spilling over borders. Russians, meanwhile, are waiting to see how much economic damage Western sanctions will inflict, and the nearly 5 million Ukrainians who’ve fled their country and the estimated 7 million more who have been displaced internally are waiting to see whether and when they can return home.
Turkey hits Kurdish militants in Iraq
Don’t look now, but Turkey has launched a fresh offensive against Kurdish militants in Northern Iraq. The new operation against the Kurdistan Workers Party, known by its initials PKK, looks to have been a sizable one, involving warplanes, drones, helicopters, and special forces. For decades, Ankara has been at war with the PKK, which has used violence to advance its aim of greater autonomy for the 15 million Kurds living in Turkey. The group, considered a terrorist organization by the US, EU, and Turkey, has set up bases just outside of Turkey in Iraq, which Ankara claims a right to attack. But doing so has strained Turkey’s ties with Baghdad, which views incursions like these as violations of its sovereignty. Perhaps no one is more caught in the middle than the leadership of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Northern Iraq, whose territory is used by the PKK but which also wants to maintain strong trade ties with Turkey. Masrour Barzani, the head of the KRG, met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara just a few days before the offensive began.
Intercommunal violence in Delhi
A weekend procession in Jahangirpuri, a neighborhood in Delhi, to mark a Hindu festival kicked off peacefully Sunday, with worshippers chanting and parading swords and trinkets. But things soon turned ugly when clashes broke out between Hindu worshippers and Muslims at a nearby mosque. Both sides blame the other for starting to throw stones, igniting the inter-communal violence that resulted in dozens of injuries, including at least one gunshot wound. This is the latest flare-up between Muslims and Hindus in India, which has picked up in recent months since pandemic lockdowns have subsided. Critics say this violent dynamic has been stoked by nationalist PM Narendra Modi’s ruling BJP Party, which has shown deference to Hindu vigilantes since Modi came to power in 2014. In 2020, communal clashes in the capital led by Hindu hardliners resulted in the worst violence in the country since partition. We’re watching to see whether this violence will die down, or whether it’ll spread to neighboring towns and cities.
A torn flag of Ukraine hung on a wire in front of a destroyed apartment building in Mariupol.
What We’re Watching: All eyes on Mariupol, IMF to the rescue, Shanghai mulls easing lockdown
Mariupol's last men standing
As President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted, Ukraine’s remaining fighters in Mariupol ignored Moscow’s deadline to surrender on Sunday. Zelensky has warned that he'll call off peace talks if Russia carries out threats to kill these defenders. After a seven-week siege, Russia is close to capturing the strategic southeastern port city. This would help form a land bridge from mainland Russia to Crimea and boost Russia’s efforts to gain control of eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin recently decided to concentrate on the Donbas in the second phase of its invasion. But Russia continued to also strike the capital, Kyiv, over the weekend and hit Lviv in western Ukraine with missiles on Monday. Is this a response to Friday’s sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet? The EU, meanwhile, is preparing its next round of sanctions, and Zelensky’s economic adviser estimates that Ukraine will need at least $1 trillion for its economy to recover from the war with Russia. Where will it get the money? Keep reading ...
Everyone wants a piece of the IMF
On Monday, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund kick off their annual spring meetings in Washington, DC, with a focus on the global economic fallout of the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have asked the IMF and G7 countries for $50 billion in immediate financial assistance for the country's war-battered economy. The IMF, for its part, has set up a special account for its members to contribute to helping Ukraine, but IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva's concerns extend far beyond Ukraine itself. The war has thrown a wrench into global post-pandemic recovery, exacerbating pre-existing problems like inflation, supply chain woes, and sky-high debt in the developing world. Sri Lanka has already defaulted, and other nations deep in the red — Egypt, Pakistan, Tunisia — could be next if they don't cut a deal with the IMF to restructure what they owe. Russia is also on the brink of default, but we’re guessing that Moscow won’t ask for an IMF lifeline anytime soon.
Shanghai’s turning point?
China's most populous city hopes to stop the spread of COVID-19 outside of quarantined areas by Wednesday so it can further ease lockdown restrictions that have been in place for more than two weeks. Ending community-level transmission is normally the turning point for Chinese cities to start returning to normal, as Shenzhen did last month. But the stakes are higher in Shanghai, where many of its 26 million citizens have turned to social media to express their frustration over lack of food, separated families, and dismal conditions at quarantine facilities in a rare public rebuke of Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy. What's more, the lockdown could wipe out up to 3% of China's GDP in April, making the policy increasingly harder to keep in place without serious economic pain. Still, until China develops its own mRNA vaccines and treatments that are effective against new variants, zero-COVID will remain the only game in town.Pro-Russian troops inspect streets in the southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: Mariupol on the brink, Pakistan’s new leader, Finland’s NATO bid
Is Mariupol on the brink?
The fight for the strategic southeastern Ukrainian port of Mariupol continues to rage. Unconfirmed reports late Monday pointed to the possible use of chemical weapons dropped by a Russian drone. US and British officials said they were monitoring reports of the possible chemical attack. The fate of Mariupol is critical for the next phase of the war. If Russia is able to take the city, it would be able to do two things: establish a land bridge to Crimea and punch northward as part of a broader effort to encircle Ukrainian forces fighting in the Donbas. As Russia now points its army towards a full-fledged assault on eastern Ukraine, Kyiv has warned of the bloodiest land battles in Europe since World War II and pleaded for more military assistance from the West.
Can Sharif bring economic healing to Pakistan?
Pakistan’s new prime minister doesn’t have an enviable job. Parliament elected Shehbaz Sharif on Monday amid economic and political turmoil in the Islamic Republic following Imran Khan’s ouster on Saturday. Khan’s party resigned en masse on Monday, part of a larger mobilization of supporters the former PM hopes will lead to street protests and agitation against the new government. Sharif, meanwhile, hit the ground running on economic matters, raising the minimum wage and some government pensions — a bid to help average Pakistanis cope with high inflation and soaring fuel prices. He is expected to form a broad coalition government and will aim to get Pakistan’s IMF funding back on track, along with electoral reforms, before calling a new election to try and secure a fresh mandate.