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House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., is seen on Capitol Hill as House Republicans have decided to nominate Scalise for Speaker of the House on Oct. 11, 2023 in Washington, D.C.
Will Republican rebels allow Scalise to hit 217?
Another 10 members voted for other candidates. But the House then went into recess because Scalise doesn’t yet have the 217 votes he’ll need to replace the ousted Kevin McCarthy. Democrats will all vote for their leader, Hakeem Jeffries, for speaker.
For now, the choice of Scalise as the Republican nominee represents a loss for the more aggressively partisan pro-Donald Trump wing of the House GOP, which had supported Jordan. In fact, Scalise has pretty closely aligned on policy with former speaker McCarthy. He supported the recent bipartisan debt ceiling deal that helped avoid a government shutdown, new financial help for Ukraine, and a clean continuing resolution to keep the government funded, all of which the Republican hardliners who voted to fire McCarthy have opposed.
But to become speaker, Scalise will need virtually all the Jordan voters to come his way on the House floor, and though Jordan has pledged his support, not enough of those who voted for him or others appear willing to back Scalise.
Republicans still hope to elect a speaker in the coming days who can advance legislation that signals US support for Israel and negotiate with Democrats over budget issues ahead of a potential government shutdown on Nov. 17.
U.S. Representative George Santos (R-NY) chats with his State of the Union guest and members of his staff as they prepare for the evening in Santos’s office on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. February 7, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Santos chargesheet grows, Niger kicks out UN rep, GOP voters question McCarthy ouster, China reaps oil windfall
44,000: US Rep. George Santos (R-NY) — already under scrutiny for lying about his background — allegedly stole more than $44,000 from campaign donors by using their identities and credit card information, according to a new 23-count indictment. Santos is also alleged to have lied to the Federal Elections Commission by claiming he loaned his campaign $500,000 at a time when he only had around $8,000 in the bank.
72: The military junta in Niger ordered UN resident coordinator Louise Aubin to leave the country within 72 hours, following expulsions of France’s ambassador and military missions. Mali and Burkina Faso similarly soured on the UN and expelled French forces following their own coups.
25: Just 25% of Republicans support the move by a small group of far-right Republicans in the House of Representatives to remove former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) last month, according to an AP-NORC poll. Around 30% say it was the wrong move, and the lion’s share of the party, 43%, is unsure.
10 billion: Chinese oil importers have saved about $10 billion this year thanks to access to heavily discounted oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, all subject to US-led sanctions. The relatively cheaper energy has been a rare boon for Beijing amid China’s economic crisis.
Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks to reporters after he was ousted from the position of Speaker
McCarthy inside the belly of the beast
It’s tempting to gather around a partisan tailgate party and warm your hands on the political fire that is Washington politics. The trouble is, lawmakers set this one themselves, and arson is not a smart way to stay warm. Eventually, the fire spreads everywhere, and that is exactly what’s happening.
The unprecedented ouster of Republican Kevin McCarthy as House speaker by eight far-right radicals is not just a domestic disaster but a global one that has leaders from Kyiv to Ottawa putting on their protective gear.
What does it all mean? We’ve been extensively covering the implications of the McCarthy mayhem, including:
- What happens now?
- Will this lead to more government shutdowns?
- And Ian Bremmer and Matt Kendrick weighed in on the impact this will have on Ukraine here and here.
But for all that, the fundamental question remains unanswered for US allies: Is America the Indispensable now America the Unreliable?
Not yet, but it is moving in that direction.
The Group of 8 who ousted McCarthy – I have heard partisans call them “the Crazy 8s” – may have little internal support in the GOP, but they now essentially control their party. That’s bad news for Ukraine, bad news for the US economy, and bad news for US allies.
Canadian officials now hold long strategy sessions planning not only for a potential Trump government but for immediate US dysfunction. Trump was already promising a government of reprisals, not reliables, but that has now been accelerated by a year. Once Congress stops believing in support for Ukraine, it’s not that lawmakers no longer believe in Ukraine, it’s that they no longer believe in support in general. That sends a bad message to allies.
And what does it say to Moscow? It’s a huge win for Russia. Let’s be clear: Putin is the big winner of the McCarthy debacle.
McCarthy’s fate is a lesson to democracies around the world — Canada, France, Hungary, the UK, you name it — dealing with far-right factions that are growing in support. McCarthy tried to appease them – he tried to give them concessions in hopes they would come round. But it didn’t work. Once you feed the radical beast, you end up in its belly, and that’s where both McCarthy and the Republican Party now find themselves.
Democrats are not blameless either. Not a single Dem voted to support McCarthy. Why? As Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez explained, Dems should not be “strengthening someone who voted to overturn the election, held the entire US economy hostage, launched a baseless impeachment inquiry without a vote, and refuses to honor his word.”
OK, but now what? Dems may have loathed McCarthy, but at least he tried working with them to secure last weekend’s funding deal. Politics is all about working with people you disagree with for the greater good. Progress moves like a crab in a democracy — to the right, to the left, but slowly ever forward. That ain’t happening now.
Who will come next? Is there really an expectation that by emboldening the Gaetz 8 – the G8 – that things will get better?
The Dems view this purely as part of a political strategy game – as in, the Republicans will wear the political pain of a government shutdown, and watching them infight and collapse will help Biden in the next election. Maybe. The thing is, people vote for politicians to be policymakers, not game players. The Dems may have a short-term victory, but at what cost?
It's hard to see clearly inside the belly of the beast. And while this is disheartening for US voters, it’s the same for US allies. America the Unreliable is not a brand the world needs right now.
A Ukrainian soldier carries artillery shells to fire in the direction of Bakhmut as the Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast.
Can Ukraine get needed weapons without McCarthy?
Kevin McCarthy being ousted as House speaker means Ukrainian troops may not get the gear they need when they need it.
For now, Patrick McHenry (R-NC) holds the post of Speaker Pro Tempore and is tasked with organizing the vote for a new House speaker — but given the slim paths to a win for other candidates, he may be in charge a while.
No matter who is holding the gavel ahead of the Nov. 17 funding deadline, they’ll need their head on a swivel, says Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s managing director for the US.
“Whoever the new speaker is will have to keep their eyes on the group of members that tossed out McCarthy, leaving them very little room to maneuver on spending issues,” he says.
The White House’s $24 billion request “could move on a bill to keep the government funded past Nov. 17, but it's not at all clear that House Republicans could pass such a bill, despite overwhelming bipartisan support in both chambers," Lieber adds.
Trying to move the funding through a one-off supplementary funding package could jeopardize the speaker’s position despite widespread bipartisan support, further lowering its odds.
The expected paralysis is confounding for European allies. Jan Techau, Eurasia Group’s director for Germany and former speechwriter for German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, says his former colleagues in Berlin are not sugarcoating the situation.
“There is grave concern that this latest development in the US would have, first of all, a dramatic impact on Ukraine itself, but by default then also put allies under pressure,” he says.
Germany, like many countries supporting Ukraine, is drawing on pre-existing stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, everything from artillery shells to main battle tanks, without replacing them quickly. Trying to make up for unexpected bottlenecks in US support – a virtually impossible task given the relatively meager size of European arsenals compared to America’s – by drawing those stocks down further imperils Germany’s own security, but Ukraine doesn’t have time to wait for new units to come off the assembly line.
Techau says it’s not realistic that European allies could find ways to replace US funding drawdowns. Besides, even if they found a way around any NATO member objections to directly funding US weapons aid to Ukraine or tried to purchase weapons on the open market, “it wouldn’t do the trick,” he says. He estimates that production limitations on weapons are roughly 75% of the problem.
“What you need is weapons on the shelf that you can take right away and give to somebody. Only the US has that,” he adds.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks to reporters in the US Capitol after the House of Representatives passed a stopgap government funding bill to avert an immediate government shutdown.
Will avoiding a shutdown cost McCarthy the speakership?
There was no shortage of drama on Capitol Hill this weekend – including a pulled fire alarm that delayed voting by an hour – as the US government managed to avoid another shutdown. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill on Saturday that will keep the lights on through Nov. 17. The proposal easily cleared the House before garnering Senate approval 88 to 9. It included natural disaster aid but no new support for border restrictions or assistance for Ukraine.
The measure passed a day after Republican Rep. Andy Biggs and 20 others blocked a Republican stopgap bill replete with spending cuts, border controls, and curbs on immigration. Unable to fund the government with just conservative votes, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy changed gears, offering a bill that would satisfy Democrats. The absence of fresh support for Ukraine prompted Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet to briefly delay the vote, but bipartisan senators resolved the impasse by pledging to further fund aid to Ukraine "in the coming weeks." President Joe Biden made it clear that “We cannot under any circumstances allow American support for Ukraine to be interrupted.”
McCarthy is expected to introduce a separate Ukraine aid bill when the House returns. But having worked with Democrats to get this measure passed could cost him his job. Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Republican hardliner, said on Sunday that he plans to move for McCarthy’s ouster this week.
If Gaetz introduces a measure to remove McCarthy, the House will have 48 hours to vote on it.
But McCarthy remains defiant. “If somebody wants to make a motion against me, bring it," he said. "There has to be an adult in the room. I am going to govern with what’s best for this country.”
Speaker of the House of Commons Anthony Rota during Question Period on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada September 25, 2023.
A tale of two speakers
It’s been an extraordinary few weeks for speakers in both the House of Representatives and the House of Commons.
One is fighting to keep his job; the other just resigned.
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is trying to navigate between the shoals of the Democrats and far-right Republicans. His hold on the speakership was tenuous from day one, but with a government shutdown looming, and a continuing resolution to keep it operating seemingly out of reach, at least for now, he’s facing a tough struggle to hold onto the gavel.
North of the border, House of Commons Speaker Anthony Rota resigned on Tuesday after welcoming Nazi war veteran Yaroslav Hunka to parliament, calling him “a Canadian hero” and “a Ukrainian hero” and thanking him for his service.
Hunka was in the visitor’s gallery during Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech to the joint session of parliament. Rota introduced Hunka as having fought against Russia during World War II, apparently unaware this meant he had fought for Nazi Germany. Rota apologized and took responsibility for the invitation before resigning.
On Wednesday, PM Justin Trudeau offered his own apology for the harm caused by Hunka’s visit. The House of Commons will choose a new speaker next Tuesday by secret ballot.
We’re watching to see if a new Canadian speaker can restore trust and authority to the speakership – and maybe a bit of decorum in the raucous House. Meanwhile, McCarthy will be working to get his far-right caucus on side to pass a bill to fund the government and end the shutdown that is set to begin Sunday. Could this blow up and cost McCarthy his role as speaker?
Clayton Allen, US director for Eurasia Group, doesn’t think so. He says McCarthy “hasn’t lost his ability to govern the House,” though he’s facing the worst internal divisions and narrowest margin of control in “at least a decade.” While it’s “a bit of a parlor game in Washington to speculate about McCarthy’s downfall … the risk is somewhat overstated,” since his removal would require majority support, including all Democrats.
A police officer gets his shoes shined as he and fellow officers stand outside the prosecutor's office before the arrival of Peru's President Dina Boluarte, in Lima, Peru March 7, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Peru declares crime emergency, EU cuts Somalia aid, Chinese weddings dwindle, McCarthy tests his majority, oil prices surge
160,200: Peruvian President Dina Boluarte declared a state of emergency in two districts of the capital, Lima, and one in the northern city of Talara amid a devastating wave of violent crime. Lima police collected 160,200 crime reports last year, up 33% from 2021, part of a larger spike in violence in South America.
7 million: The European Union has suspended funding for the World Food Program’s operations in Somalia, which last year amounted to over $7 million, after a United Nations investigation discovered widespread theft by local power brokers, armed groups, and even aid workers themselves. The graft has macabre costs: Somalia barely avoided a famine last year amid a drought that killed 43,000 people — half of them children under 5.
6.8 million: Love is decidedly not in the air in China, as the country registered just 6.8 million weddings in 2022, a drop of some 800,000 compared to 2021 and the lowest figure on record. Meanwhile, even those who are tying the knot are more hesitant to have children, a factor contributing to China’s first population decline in 60 years, and a major long term headache for policy planners in Beijing.
4: US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is gambling that he can push through a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, despite fierce blowback from within his own GOP caucus. His margin is slim: he can afford to lose just only 4 GOP votes if he wants the measure to pass.
95: The price of oil hit $95 dollars per barrel, climbing some 26% for the quarter as Saudi Arabia and Russia have cut production to boost prices. Higher oil prices are likely to prop up inflation, complicating matters not only for households, but also for central bankers who had been hoping to ease off of interest rate hikes sooner than later.
U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) arrives to deliver a statement on allegations surrounding U.S. President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, as the House of Representatives returns from its summer break facing a looming deadline to avoid a government shutdown while spending talks continue on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 12, 2023.
Will the House GOP’s Biden impeachment probe backfire?
After much back-and-forth in recent months, embattled House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has officially launched an impeachment inquiry against US President Joe Biden.
McCarthy says that the inquiry has merit, based on months of preliminary investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings – specifically the global financial exploits of Hunter Biden, the president’s son. Democrats, for their part, say this is a GOP political vendetta in response to the impeachments of Donald Trump, and that Biden himself has committed no impeachable high crimes or misdemeanors.
Still, launching an official inquiry gives relevant congressional committees broad powers to request documents and testimonies – a boon for House Republicans who have already been battling for greater access to Biden family financial records.
Why now? McCarthy is likely trying to throw a bone to far-right House Republicans, known as the Freedom Caucus, who despise the speaker and are threatening to remove him over a host of thorny policy disputes. Most notably, the tear-it-all-down caucus is mad at McCarthy for his apparent willingness to work with the White House to continue to fund the government at current levels through the end of the year. Failure to do so could result in a government shutdown after Sept. 30.
Impeachment is risky for McCarthy and for the GOP. House Republicans in purple districts (many that Biden won in 2020) say this is not a popular move with their voters and that it could backfire in 2024, when House Republicans will have a very narrow majority to defend.
But the Freedom Caucus is out for blood. Prominent McCarthy critic Rep. Matt Gaetz has already called the impeachment probe a mere “baby step.”