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Outgoing Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum speaks as she registers as a for the ruling MORENA party's 2024 presidential election primary.
Is she Mexico’s next president?
A year from now, Claudia Sheinbaum is likely to be Mexico's next president. That’s partly because she’s widely considered the preferred choice of the still-remarkably popular current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has a 59% approval rating after four years in office and has unified leadership within his Morena party.
But it’s also because Sheinbaum is an undeniably impressive candidate who’s built a solid reputation as the leftist mayor of Mexico City. Like López Obrador, she pledges to “shrink the great inequalities” that have defined Mexican society throughout its history.
First, she must fend off challenges from within Morena from Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard and Interior Secretary Adán Augusto López, but her commanding polling lead over both men and implied support from (officially neutral) López Obrador signal that’s likely to happen.
Then, she’ll have to defeat a unity opposition candidate, but given how little traction opposition parties have established against Morena, she’ll likely enter the race next year as a clear favorite.
If she wins next July, she’ll be the first female and first Jewish president in Mexico’s history. She’ll also be the first physicist. Herein lies the first of the two important differences between Sheinbaum and López Obrador, a president who was infamously cavalier about the public health risks posed by COVID and who has relied heavily on state-owned oil company PEMEX to help realize his populist vision for a more economically equitable Mexico.
In Mexico City, Sheinbaum took a much more science-based approach to the pandemic, with masks and social distancing as part of her virus management strategy. As for fossil fuels, Sheinbaum, who holds a Ph.D. in engineering, has worked on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the 2007 Nobel Prize. That’s the foundation of her commitment to moving Mexico toward environmental sustainability.
The other difference is all about politics. Love him or hate him, López Obrador is a brilliant politician with a common touch. He knows how to speak over the heads of political elites to mobilize support among working-class voters.
Does Sheinbaum share that talent? If she wins in 2024, that will be the true test of her ability to create a presidency unlike any Mexico has seen before.Mario Delgado, president of Mexico's ruling Morena party, during a press conference to unveil the four presidential candidates in Mexico City.
AMLO wants a popular successor
Mexico's ruling Morena Party on Sunday decided to pick its 2024 presidential nominee in a unique way.
Instead of voting directly for the four declared candidates to succeed term-limited President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO, Morena members will weigh in via five polls — one internal survey and four private ones picked by each aspirant — to be conducted over the summer. Moreover, all candidates must resign their posts by Friday in order to enter the race, which will have no debates or allow endorsements by sitting officials.
Why? To avoid infighting and anyone manipulating surveys or using a government position to gain an unfair advantage.
But perhaps more importantly, this selection process smacks of overcompensation since after five years in power, Morena remains little more than a political vehicle for AMLO’s popularity. Although the party insists that the president won't handpick his successor, any hint of showing a preference for, say, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, will be perceived as a de facto nod from the big boss that’ll matter more than any poll.
The winner will be announced on Sept. 6.