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Handout photo shows Left to right: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine) with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Vilnius. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky to the NATO Summit on Wednesday July 12, 2023, ahead of the inaugural meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Ukraine gets a NATO promise, sort of
NATO allies will reportedly announce today that Ukraine’s progress towards joining the organization is “irreversible.” The language will appear in the joint communiqué released by the alliance to conclude its three-day summit in Washington.
But when, precisely, that irreversible momentum will culminate in a NATO membership card for Kyiv is still no clearer now than it was three days ago.
Reports suggest that the allies spent hours hashing out how explicit to make any conditions in the text, but there seem to be two main hurdles: ending the war with Russia, and getting Ukraine’s governing and military institutions up to NATO-level snuff.
Neither of those things will happen anytime soon, which is why NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was clear earlier in the week that Ukraine’s membership is, in fact, still far off.
For Ukraine, then, it’s a mixed bag. A great vote of confidence from the world’s largest military alliance, yes. But no actual deterrent against a Kremlin which will, naturally, view the language as a provocation.
The alliance has, however, redoubled its commitment to helping Ukraine defend itself, announcing a $43 billion aid package, while the US said additional air defenses – as well as the first batch of F-16 fighter jets – were all on their way to Kyiv.
Why Sweden and Finland joined NATO
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Hanoi, Vietnam.
Was the Swedish and Finnish decision to move into NATO, was that driven by fear of Russia attacking them?
Not really. I don't think either of our countries feel any immediate threat by Russian aggression. But what happened when Russia, Mr. Putin, to be precisely, attacked Ukraine was a fundamental upsetting of the entire European security order. And although Mr. Putin's priority at the moment, he’s very clear on that, is to get rid of Ukraine by invading and occupying all of it, you never know where he's going to stop. And this led Finland and Sweden to do the fundamental reassessment of their security policies. Giving up, in Swedish case, we've been outside of military alliances for the last 200 years or something like that.
So it was not a minor step. And that step has now been taken. Finland completed its ratification, has been a member for a couple of months. Sweden has now formally become a member after some hiccups with the ratification process. It's a major change for our two countries need to say. It is a significant strengthening of NATO. It is a significant strengthening of the security in northern Europe and I think also will facilitate a better coordination between the military alliance of NATO and the security alliance of the EU to the obvious advantage of security of Europe and the security of the West.
It's a good day.
Ukraine on the path to joining NATO, says deputy Mircea Geoanǎ
After two years of fighting and brutal warfare in Ukraine, NATO deputy Mircea Geoanǎ says the stakes of the war could not be higher for the West. Ian Bremmer spoke with Geoanǎ on GZERO World at the Munich Security Conference and asked him to give a sober assessment of the war so far, as political battles and mounting crisis fatigue in the US and EU put military and financial assistance for Kyiv in jeopardy. Geoanǎ says the West can't afford to desert Ukraine in its time of need.
“Ukraine will become a member of NATO, it will become a member of the EU,” the NATO deputy warns, “If they don’t prevail, there is no NATO, there’s no EU.”
NATO and Ukraine are getting closer every day, Geoanǎ argues, they're becoming more interoperable with each other, and a level of trust has developed with Kyiv. Abandoning the fight now would be a broader sign of the West’s collective ability to deal with global security challenges coming from elsewhere in the world, like Iran and North Korea. This war is bigger than Ukraine, which is why it’s so important for allies to stay united.
Watch full episode here: Can Ukraine win the war?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Ukraine joining NATO "is the only option," says Alina Polyakova
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis catches up with Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Analysis, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to assess Ukraine’s precarious situation two years after Russia's invasion. Polyakova highlights the intensified military strategy employed by Russia, making the situation dire for Ukraine. She stresses the urgent need for more military support and equipment from Ukraine's allies, especially from the United States.
Polyakova also addresses the debate around Ukraine's potential NATO membership, arguing vehemently for its inclusion. “The only way to secure what have been very positive wins of Western support for Ukraine is to solidify that at the NATO summit by extending an invitation to Ukraine, to even a session talks," Polyakova tells Maciulis. She dismisses the notion that Ukraine's membership would escalate tensions with Russia, asserting that NATO serves as a deterrent to aggression. She emphasizes that Ukraine's integration into NATO is crucial for Europe's long-term security.
Polyakova also clarifies misconceptions about Article 5 of the NATO treaty, stating that it doesn't automatically lead to military intervention. She advocates for starting accession conversations with Ukraine, emphasizing its military capabilities and the benefits it could bring to NATO.
Maciulis and Polyakova also touch on the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on Ukraine and NATO. She suggests that while President Trump's rhetoric about NATO has been concerning, his actions have largely supported the alliance. However, she acknowledges uncertainty about the future and the importance of maintaining trust and unity within NATO.
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US approves F-16s for Turkey, moving Sweden NATO membership closer
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
How are things proceeding with the ratification of the Swedish membership in NATO?
Well, it’s been some back and forth. But now Turkey has ratified and that is important. That has to do with also the agreement with the US on deliveries of F-16s and modification kits of F-16s and deliveries of F-35s to Greece. A major package has been negotiated, so that should be okay. Now, remaining with Hungary. Prime Minister Orban is a slightly unpredictable fellow, but I would guess that he can't hold off for very long. So I would hope, expect this process to be wrapped up within a couple of weeks.
What about British generals and others warning for the danger of a major war in Europe?
There have been a couple of such voices. I don’t think they signify anything that is imminent in terms of dangers, but they signify a concern. What might happen if the war between Russia, the aggression, if that continues? If we don't have sufficient support for Ukraine, if Ukraine doesn't succeed, then that could well be the beginning of a much more major war and a much more severe security challenge for all of Europe. So I think what you hear, from different generals, should be seen in that rather serious light.