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Supporters hold cardboard cutouts of Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, days before the Ecuadorian presidential election, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on Feb. 4, 2025.
Viewpoint: With his reelection bid, Ecuador’s Noboa seeks more time to bring violence under control
Ecuadorians will head to the polls on Feb. 9 to choose their next president against a backdrop of spiraling violence similar to that of the last presidential election in 2023. That was an early vote called by then-President Guillermo Lasso in an attempt to avoid impeachment. Daniel Noboa, the fresh-faced son of a banana magnate, achieved an upset victory, assumed the presidency, and launched an aggressive crackdown against the drug trafficking gangs terrorizing the country.
Less than two years later, the 38-year-old president is asking for a full term in office (four years) in this weekend’s regularly scheduled election. Noboa says he wants to finish what he started, and his clear lead in the polls suggests that voters are inclined to give him the opportunity. We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targow to learn more about the upcoming election.
What are voters’ biggest concerns?
The main issue by far is security, followed by economic concerns. There was a crisis of electricity outages toward the end of last year, but that has been abated by recent rains (the country is heavily dependent on hydropower) and fallen lower on the list of voter concerns. However, there has been a renewed deterioration of the security situation, and the start of this year has been one of the most violent ever.
What is driving this violence? Are political candidates being targeted, as in 2023?
No high-profile candidates have been targeted this time (presidential hopeful Fernando Villavicencio was shot and killed in 2023), but some local officials have been killed and there may be a political motive behind the latest wave of violence. Noboa has really made the fight against organized crime a pillar of his presidency. When he took office in January 2024, he declared a state of emergency, brought the military out onto the streets, and took control of the country’s prisons, which had been a hotbed of criminal activity. So criminal groups may be intensifying their battles for control of drug-transit routes partly in the hope that the resulting uptick in violence will lead voters to conclude the president’s approach is not working.
Is it working? Given these still high levels of violence under Noboa, why is he leading in the polls?
Noboa’s policies initially brought a dramatic decline in homicide rates and other violence. Since then, it’s possible that criminal groups found ways to work around them. Still, levels of violence are lower than at their late 2023 peak. More broadly, voters support Noboa’s policies and believe that he is doing the right thing or trying to do the right thing. They think he needs more time. He's only been in office for just over a year, so I think voters are still, at this juncture, willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Are there other reasons for this high level of support for Noboa?
I think that he is still viewed by voters as a bit of an outsider, someone who is shaking up Ecuadorian politics. He came out of nowhere in 2023 to win the election. He's very young and still kind of feels like a fresh face. The other thing he has going for him is that his main opponent, Luisa Gonzalez, is not a strong candidate with a clear message on the issues voters care about. She represents the correismo movement launched by former president Rafael Correa, which has a very loyal base but also is strongly disliked by some parts of the electorate.
What has happened to correismo? It used to be a dominant force in Ecuadorian politics, but its fortunes seem to have declined in the last couple of elections.
The movement has struggled to come up with a compelling forward-looking campaign message, focusing more on attacking Noboa and peddling nostalgia about conditions during Correa’s time in office (2007-2017). Moreover, the country’s security crisis has focused attention on decisions Correa made such as expelling the US military from the base in Manta. Similarly, the country’s current reliance on hydropower and shaky electricity grid stems from decisions made under Correa, including his flagship Chinese-built Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric dam, which has major structural problems.
At the same time, Noboa’s young National Democratic Action party seems to be consolidating its position. What is the significance of this?
Ecuadorian politics seems to be consolidating around two main parties, National Democratic Action and Correismo, which marks a departure from its typical fragmentation. This can be a stabilizing force for a country with a long history of political instability and volatility.
What are some things Ecuador’s next president could do to address the country’s problems?
Noboa wants to amend the constitution to allow foreign military bases in Ecuador, reversing the policy instituted by Correa. The country is doing battle with multinational criminal organizations – the groups in Ecuador report, for example, to Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel – so having foreign military and intelligence assistance is potentially a big deal. This is a popular idea locally but will need to be put to a public referendum. In terms of electricity supply, Noboa has been changing regulations to stimulate investment in new generation capacity, and I think if he is elected to a new four-year term, that could help get some of these projects moving. Finally, under the terms of the country’s financial support package from the IMF, the next president will have to raise tax revenue and cut back on fuel subsidies. The latter is a particularly challenging issue that has prompted mass public protests in the past.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will Iran respond to the attack on their consulate in Syria?
An Israeli strike that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader of Iran in Syria. So on the one hand, Iranian citizen, high-level military official. On the other hand, not in Iran itself, in Syria supporting proxy attacks. Clearly the Iranians have been willing to push hard using the leverage they have in the so-called acts of resistance to engage in strikes against civilian shipping, against Western military capabilities, and against Israel.
The Israelis are showing that they will attack wherever they think fit against them, but Iran has been reluctant to allow this to potentially lead to escalation in a direct war against Iran, which is why it's hard to imagine the Iranians engaging in direct strikes against Israel itself. Ballistic missile strikes from Iran into Israel. So in other words, if you're going to hit Israel, you try to use proxies or you try to hit Israelis outside of Israel itself. Israeli diplomatic facilities, for example, that's where I think you're more likely to see escalation. Escalation seems almost certain from the Iranians, but containing it also is something the Americans and Israel are trying very, very hard to do and that continues to be the case like when we saw the American servicemen killed in Jordan a couple months ago.
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Assuming it happens, remember Netanyahu was saying that he has a date now for the strike, but he said that strikes were going to start once Ramadan began if there had not been an agreement on this six-week, hostages for temporary ceasefire deal. There wasn't such a deal, Netanyahu backed off, he could back off again. Also, the ultimatum from the United States is not about a war in Rafah. It is about a large-scale ground war without providing the ability for the Palestinians to evacuate and get humanitarian aid.
Between those two positions there's a lot of wiggle room and one expects that the Israeli government, as they are thinking about those strikes, which I do believe will come, will try to claim domestically that they're doing what they need to clear up Hamas and claim to the Americans that it is at a reduced cost of civilians and it is engaged in the spirit of working with the Americans and not requiring Biden to shut down offensive support for Israel. That's where we are.
What's the fallout from Ecuador's raid of a Mexican embassy?
Well, the first thing is President Noboa of Ecuador, this is political. This is a former vice president who was taking, was sheltering in the Mexican embassy. You raid it, that is a breach of international law, but there is a security, largely security referendum, nationwide referendum coming up in just a couple of weeks in Ecuador that Noboa wants to win. He is ahead, it looks like he will win it now, and this is going to be very popular on the ground.
Guy had been sort of on their wanted list for a long time, but they decided to take that action now because of the domestic politics. So it helps him. Probably doesn't kill the IMF deal that is presently being negotiated, but certainly suspends diplomatic relations between the two countries and it's probably going to affect trade too. So you've alienated the Mexicans, but given the near-term political benefit for the Ecuadorian president, he thought that was a risk worth taking. Lots of impunity in this environment. It's one consistency that we see in our geopolitical recession, our GZERO world.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Soldiers keep watch in the militarized Litoral prison, part of the measures taken by Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa to crackdown on gangs, during a media tour in Guayaquil, Ecuador, Feb. 9, 2024.
Ecuador to vote on emergency measures amid spiraling violence
Ecuadorians will get their say on a slew of emergency measures meant to combat skyrocketing murders in their country — but they’ll have to wait more than two months.
A court has set April 21 as the date for a referendum on expanding the army’s powers, tightening control over guns and prisons, and raising penalties for trafficking.
President Daniel Noboa, the scion of a banana export dynasty who was elected last November, called for the vote as he battles an unprecedented surge of violence in the once-peaceful country. The cause? Record global demand for cocaine is driving a war among drug cartels for control over Ecuador’s ports.
Last year Ecuador’s homicide rate surpassed 40 per 100,000 inhabitants, more than quadruple the mark in 2020. In recent months, several prominent politicians, including a presidential candidate, have been gunned down. In January, armed men stormed a live television broadcast.
Strongman, but by the book: Noboa’s consultative approach contrasts with the authoritarian (and so far successful) tack of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. But it’s a gamble: If civil liberties concerns cause Ecuadorans to vote “no” on some questions, Noboa’s hands could be tied (at least partly) while the violence rages.