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Russian tactical nukes in Belarus avoids direct escalation
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Trump arraigned, again. What's next?
I guess what's next is more cases. I mean, at the end of the day, I still think that the January 6th case, as well as the efforts to overturn the election outcome in Georgia are substantively more serious, at least in terms of what they will mean for people that do or don't decide to vote for Trump in a general election, assuming he gets the nomination, than how he mishandled classified documents and then lied to people around it. Especially because he doesn't really have a motive, aside from the fact that he's a child and thinks that he should have access to these documents. But I mean, the key point here is that we've got a justice overseeing the case that was appointed by Trump and will certainly be very, very favorable towards every delay the Trump lawyers want. So this is going to make lots of headlines, but is not going to move until after the nomination, probably not until after election. So again, it's a crazy thing to say, but he's more likely to get the nomination on the back of all this news than not.
Why is Russia planting tactical nukes in Belarus?
Well, I mean, it is one thing that they can do that implies symbolic pressure on the Ukrainians and on NATO and doesn't take significant direct escalatory steps that would threaten Russia. In other words, Putin understands that by making that move, he's dangerous, but he's not forcing NATO to do anything in response. Also, keep in mind, NATO's been escalating quite significantly over the past months, irrespective of Russia right now. I think that the Belarus issue is kind of a canard, it's not one of the serious headlines here. More serious is the dam getting blown up. More serious are F-16s eventually coming to the Ukrainians. More serious is how this counteroffensive goes and how much land the Ukrainians can take back. We'll watch that closely.
Is Serbia taking over sports?
I don't know. I mean, I thought Norway was for the beginning of the week, last week, especially when Ruud looked like he was going to take that first set at the French Open, but no, no. Now, with Jokić and Djokovic, it's true. It's got two big Serbs, and they're both very big Serbs. There's no question. I wouldn't say the Serbs are taking over sports, I'd say, "Congrats for a couple of big wins." I watched the French Open. It was cool to watch. And congratulations for someone who's been, politically, a little crazy, but plays tennis like nobody's business. I'm willing to differentiate those two things.
Demonstrators gather in New York City to protest the death of Tyre Nichols by Memphis police officers.
Hard Numbers: Scorpions disbanded in Memphis, Sunak’s “integrity” pledge, Tunisian voter apathy, Pakistan mosque attack, Djokovic's record
50: The Memphis Police Department has disbanded the 50-person Scorpion special unit after five of its officers were charged with murdering 29-year-old Tyre Nichols, a Black man stopped for an unsubstantiated driving violation. The unit, founded in 2021, was supposed to tackle high-impact crimes in Memphis, where around 65% of the population is Black.
5 million: Having vowed to bring “integrity” back to No. 10 Downing Street, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak fired Nadhim Zahawi, chairman of Britain’s Conservative Party, after an inquiry into his taxes led to a 5 million pound ($6.2 million) settlement with tax authorities. It’s a big deal considering that Zahawi was a top contender last summer to replace Boris Johnson as PM.
262: Tunisians voted on Sunday in the second round of parliamentary elections with 262 candidates vying for the legislature’s 131 seats. President Kais Saied has diluted the power of the parliament, and voter apathy is sky-high, with just 11% of voters casting ballots.
47: At least 47 people were killed, and scores more injured, when a bomb exploded inside a mosque in the northwest Pakistani city of Peshawar. No group has taken responsibility for the carnage, which took place inside a police compound. However, the Pakistani Taliban, emboldened since the group of the same name took control of Afghanistan in Aug. 2021, are thought to be behind the attack.
10: Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic won his 10th Australian Open on Sunday, tying Spain’s Rafael Nadal for the most grand slam titles – at 22 each! It was an emotional night for the Serb, who last year was banned from participating in the Aussie tournament for failing to secure a COVID vaccine exemption.Russian airborne troops soldiers at Chkalovsky Airfield waiting to depart to join the Collective Security Treaty Organisation's peacekeeping force in Kazakhstan.
What We’re Watching: Russians in another Stan, Djokovic drama, Mali sanctions, Europe vs anti-vaxxers
Russia in Kazakhstan. Anti-government clashes in Kazakhstan have gotten increasingly violent, with the death toll now reaching 164 after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev issued a controversial “shoot without warning” order on Friday. What started as a demonstration against a fuel price hike has since turned into a movement protesting government corruption and authoritarianism — with regional implications. Enter Russia, which responded to the pro-Russia Tokayev’s request for help with about 2,500 “peacekeeping” troops and future deployments being planned under the aegis of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the former Soviet Union’s version of NATO. This comes as Moscow has recently amassed 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. The Russians will on Monday start talks with NATO and the US about the ongoing situation with Ukraine, but also discuss enhancing security plans with Kazakhstan, whose northern territory is claimed by Moscow. Russia has been clear about what it wants in Ukraine — for NATO to stop expanding further eastward into the former Soviet states. But what does Vladimir Putin want exactly in Kazakhstan, one of the region’s most energy-rich countries?
No-vac Djokovic’s next moves. It wasn’t a political case at first, but it’s become one, fast. Novak Djokovic, the world’s top-seeded men’s tennis player, came to Oz with ambitions to win his 21st grand slam title. But after being denied entry for being unvaccinated and questions about his medical exemption from previously getting COVID, Djokovic took the Australian government to court, challenging deportation. A judge on Monday reinstated his visa, but again the case isn’t going to be open and shut — or game, set and match. The federal government can still cancel the visa for a second time, and in that case Nole will be banned from Australia, and the Australian Open, for three years. Meanwhile, Djokovic, a vaccine skeptic, is set to leave the rundown hotel where he was staying alongside many asylum-seekers also awaiting their future. Still, the question remains: is arguably tennis’ GOAT a victim of politicization, or just entitled? The Australian government’s final decision must be announced by Tuesday if the Serbian star is to play in Melbourne.
ECOWAS vs Mali. In response to Mali delaying its planned election next month, the 15-member Economic Community of West African States has decided to close all borders with Mali and impose tough economic sanctions on non-essential financial transactions, and Malian state assets in West African banks. Mali has been run by a transitional civilian-military government — with the generals calling most of the shots — since an August 2020 coup, followed by a de-facto second power grab nine months later. ECOWAS met the first with a border closure and sanctions package, which it lifted when the junta agreed to share power with civilians and hold elections in early 2022. However, the bloc didn't act after the second coup, and was caught off-guard by the postponement. Mali’s generals, meanwhile, say they prioritize ensuring a peaceful election over a speedy one. No way, say Mali's neighbors, who want a vote ASAP because West Africa needs more stable governments, in part to fight jihadists that have taken control of vast swaths of the conflict-ridden Sahel region.
Political omicron in Europe. As the omicron variant continues to drive cases and hospitalizations up globally, new pandemic restrictions — including vaccine mandates — are stoking fresh political fights in Europe. In France, President Emmanuel Macron is facing strong backlash over his recent comments against anti-vaxxers (and refusal to walk them back). Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Paris on Saturday to protest against Macron’s plans to ban the unvaccinated from bars and restaurants. Macron may have science on his side, but he'll have to tread carefully because the French presidential election is only three months away, and the incumbent needs to maintain his lead over conservative challenger Valerie Pécresse. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic saw a similar mass rally in Prague to decry a vaccine mandate for everyone over 60 due to take effect in March. What's interesting here is that the new Czech government was against the plan when its parties were in the opposition, but now says it might keep the mandate due to omicron. Flip-flopping on such a polarizing issue is not a good start for a shaky coalition in a country with one of the EU's lowest rates of trust in government.Were the Aussies right to ban Djokovic?
You’ve probably read this week that Novak Djokovic, the world’s number-one ranked tennis player, was caught in an awkward standoff with Australian border police.
A quick catch up: Upon arriving in Melbourne for the Australian Open, one of the world’s four Grand Slam tennis tournaments, the unvaccinated Serbian tennis star was denied entry by federal authorities who said he did not meet the criteria for a vaccine exemption and so does not satisfy entry requirements.
Djokovic explained that he was previously granted a vaccine exemption by Tennis Australia and the Victorian state government. The feds were unmoved.
Djokovic is no stranger to whacky health and conspiracy theories. He is a proponent of holistic healing (nothing wrong with that), but he has also said that you can make toxic water drinkable simply by using “the power of your mind.”
If you are pro-science – and/or a person who has missed out on family milestones over the past 24 months by honoring travel rules – it’s easy to criticize Djokovic, who seems to think his trophy case entitles him to special consideration. But this flare-up isn’t really about the tennis star’s predilections for natural (or unnatural) remedies.
As the highly transmissible omicron sweeps the globe, perhaps redefining the trajectory of the pandemic, many argue that vaccine mandates for cross-border travel are superfluous. Others say these requirements remain crucial to protect public health.
Here are some good arguments on both sides.
The pro-mandate camp
Preliminary data suggest that omicron is much less likely to hospitalize or kill the infected, thanks in part to the most effective vaccines. Still, the variant’s unprecedented rate of transmission means that even if a smaller percentage of infected people need medical care, the overall larger number of infected people can still fill a city’s hospital beds.
In the US and parts of Europe where vaccination rates remain sluggish, mandates would prevent non-vaccinated foreigners coming in who might place even more burden on already-swamped healthcare systems. Vaccine mandates for border crossers aren’t foolproof. But they are the best protection we’ve got in speeding the shift to endemicity.
Moreover, some vaccines still offer some protection against the antibody-evading omicron strain. This is particularly true for those who have been fully vaccinated and boosted with an mRNA shot. Indeed, the more people that get vaccinated, the less opportunity the virus will have to spread and mutate, threatening those who are vulnerable to severe illness. Requiring vaccines for all international travel will force many fence-sitters and skeptics to get the shot. Consider this: If Djokovic was told from the get-go that exemptions weren’t an option, would he still have resisted the mandate and given up his spot in four Grand Slams this year?
The anti-mandate camp
A majority of the world’s vaccinated people has received a non-mRNA shot from Johnson & Johnson, Oxford-AstraZeneca, Russia’s Sputnik V or China’s Sinopharm or Sinovac. These vaccines don’t appear to block omicron as effectively as mRNA vaccines. Sinopharm and Sinovac, which account for roughly half of all shots delivered globally, provide no protection against infection at all (though they still appear to provide some protection against severe illness). Vaccine mandates for travel become obsolete when even vaccinated people have a high chance of turning up a positive result.
Some have argued that to give Djokovic a special tennis pass when Australian citizens living abroad weren’t able to return home for close to two years is a slap in the face to those who respect rules. But public health policy should be based on science-based reasoning and logic – not driven by political principle.
Additionally, there have been some studies that show that virus acquired immunity provides broader protection from reinfection than vaccination immunity. If so, exposure to omicron, which comes at low personal risk, coupled with vaccination – a concept known as hybrid immunity – could be the fastest way to reach herd immunity (and end the pandemic), a sentiment supported by Israel’s health minister.
Ramanan Laxminarayan, an epidemiologist, told the New York Times that “the combination of vaccination and exposure to the virus seems to be stronger than only having the vaccine,” adding that India and Brazil may therefore be better positioned to deal with the omicron wave than countries that have experienced lower infection rates.
So, were the Aussies right to ban the unvaccinated Novak Djokovic? Let us know what you think.
One year since Jan. 6 insurrection; why Trump endorsed Viktor Orbán
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on the anniversary of the January 6 Capitol insurrection, Trump's endorsement of Viktor Orbán, and Novak Djokovic's avoidance of vaccination rules.
A year later, what should we call the Jan. 6? A coup attempt? A riot? An insurrection? Domestic terrorism?
I think I'd go with an insurrection, since it was the former president, sitting president of the United States who had not been re-elected, claimed he was re-elected, and called on his supporters to march on the Capitol building, and didn't stop them when they occupied it illegally. The whole “Hang Mike Pence” thing does imply insurrection. Doesn't imply domestic terrorism. Very few of them were trying to engage in political violence, though I think certainly, a few were. And a riot by itself doesn't really hit it.
But I also want to say that I'm very sympathetic to many of the people that did march on the Capitol. I mean, if your president, and the Republicans in office, and the media is telling you that the election was stolen, and you're following their exhortations to do something about it, that's actually what the United States stands for. So I blame the authorities a hell of a lot more than I do the people that hit the Capitol on Jan. 6. And I think they should sue those people, because we are a litigious society.
Why is Trump endorsing Viktor Orban?
Well, because he is the most strongly Euro-skeptic, anti-EU leader in the European Union. And Trump strongly opposes a strong Europe. We saw that with his pro-Brexit stance. We saw that with his support for Marine Le Pen in France, and it plays out with Viktor Orban. And the fact that he is a xenophobe, anti-immigration, and is an authoritarian anti-democrat, those are features, not bugs, but that's not fundamental to it, all of which is kind of embarrassing, but par for the course, for the former president.
Vaccine skeptic, Novak Djokovic was granted a medical exemption to compete in the Australian Open. Does this set a bad precedent?
Well, I mean, it sets the precedent that the world tennis organization really cares about having its number one star play in the Australian Open. They're looking for money, and they're looking for great tennis. And I mean, obviously, if you're the best tennis player in the world, you can't expect the same rules are going to apply to you as would apply to everybody else. I mean, if it works in politics, why wouldn't it work in the politics of tennis? It's kind of sad, but it will make for a better Australian Open, and I'm sure that's why they made the decisions. So, there you go. Be like Djokovic, I guess. And I wish he was not an anti-vaxxer, but that's "If wishes were horses," as they say, "even my grandma would ride."
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