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Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin Wall on the Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow, Russia, Feb. 23, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Putin eyes more troops, Liberals lose in Montreal riding, Beijing frees American, Deadly clashes in New Guinea, Gazan children vaccinated, Nigerian prison escape
180,000: Uncle Vladimir wants … more troops. The Russian president on Monday ordered that his country’s army be enlarged to 1.5 million active troops, an increase of 180,000 soldiers. If successful, the growth would make Russia’s military the second largest worldwide, with China in the No. 1 spot.
28: Canada’s Liberal Party lost another big byelection on Monday in Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding. Between this loss to Bloc-Québécois and a June loss to Conservatives in Toronto-St. Paul’s, PM Justin Trudeau’s party has seen a summer bookended by major losses in so-called Liberal strongholds. Preliminary results from Monday’s vote show it was so close that the BQ beat the Liberals by less than a percentage point, 28% to 27.2%. But don’t expect Trudeau to step down: He said before the polls opened that he would stay on as party leader whatever the result.
18: On Sunday, Beijing releasedDavid Lin, an American pastor who had been wrongfully detained in China for 18 years, partially fulfilling the White House’s repeated requests to hand over detainees. Washington is also seeking the release of Kai Li and Mark Swidan, who have been detained in China since 2016 and 2012, respectively. Their detentions are scheduled for a congressional hearing on Wednesday.
50: Up to 50 people have died in ongoing fighting among illegal mine operators in Papua New Guinea’s Porgera Valley, the UN announced Monday. Security forces have reportedly started deploying in the valley, which was also the site of a landslide that killed up to 2,000 people in May, but violence, especially inter-tribal violence, is a growing problem that New Guinea has few resources to address.
90: UN health authorities in Gaza announced on Monday that they have vaccinated 90% of the 640,000 children with their first dose against polio, a major humanitarian accomplishment amid the ongoing fighting. UNRWA says it’s now focused on getting the vaccine to the remaining children and setting up for the second dose in about two months.
274: At least 274 inmates in a Nigerian prison in Borno state have escaped after major floods caused walls in the facility to collapse. Around 4 million Nigerians have been affected by the floods, and at least 1,000 people across West and Central Africa have died.An Afghan security force personnel keeps watch near his check post in Parun, capital of Nuristan province, Afghanistan November 20, 2016.
Hard Numbers: Landslide tragedy in Afghanistan, Credit card mega deal, Debt default in Niger, Gun violence in New Guinea, EU takes on TikTok, Chinese New Year blowout, Japan crazy for food carts
25: Twenty-five people have died and twenty homes were destroyed in a landslide triggered by heavy rain and snow in eastern Afghanistan's Nuristan province. Harsh winter weather, difficult terrain, and a lack of resources are hampering rescue efforts for those still trapped.
35,300,000,000: Capital One will merge with credit card network Discover in an all-stock deal valued at $35.3 billion dollars, expected to close in late 2024 or early 2025. The merger would render the combined firm the largest US credit card company by loan volume, but consumer advocates say the deal raises antitrust concerns.
519,000,000: The West African nation of Niger has defaulted on another debt payment, bringing its total debt default to $519 million since a military coup last July, according to the West African monetary union debt management agency UMOA Titres. Niger’s recent missed payment of $22 million is but the latest challenge faced by the Sahel nation, including suspended international aid, closed borders, and a possible currency change.
26: Twenty-six people were killed in a tribal ambush in a community dispute in Papua New Guinea's Highlands region. The area has traditionally struggled with violence, but a recent influx of illegal firearms have made clashes more deadly.
6: The EU could take a big bite out of ByteDance, parent company of social media giant TikTok. The company could be subject to a fine of 6% of its global turnover if found to have violated EU online content rules, particularly regarding the protection of minors and advertising transparency.
474,000,000: Now that’s a holiday! During China’s eight-day Lunar New Year celebrations, Chinese travelers were on the move, taking 474 million domestic trips, up 19% from 2019, and splashing out spending of 632.7 billion yuan (US$87.9 billion), up 7.7% from pre-pandemic levels.
100,000: Japan's latest craze? Snagging a bullet train food cart for your kitchen or canteen. After Central Japan Railway decided to discontinue the use of its 50 iconic snack-mobiles, it was swamped with nearly 2,000 bids at $100,000 yen (US$666) a pop, proving that the race for train memorabilia is just as fast-paced as the shinkansen line itself.
Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape and Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanes
Did Papua New Guinea just pick a side?
The Australian government on Thursday signed a security pact with its nearest neighbor, Papua New Guinea (aka PNG) that strengthens its – and America’s – position as a primary security partner in a region where China’s influence is rising.
The agreement was finalized six months later than initially scheduled, primarily because PNG harbored reservations about being perceived as favoring one side over another. During this delay, China actively sought PNG's participation in a comprehensive security pact involving nine other Pacific Island nations, though the initiative eventually collapsed. Despite having entered into a defense agreement with the United States in May, PNG asserts that it remains impartial and has not aligned itself with any particular side.
PNG is a diverse developing nation in a strategically important part of the South Pacific. Australia’s push for the agreement came after the neighboring Solomon Islands struck a security pact with China last year, sending shockwaves through the Pacific and raising fears of a Chinese naval base being established there.
While specifics about the Australia-Papua New Guinea deal have not yet been published, both nations said they achieved their goals. Amid rising US-China tensions, Pacific Island nations are a geostrategic chessboard. The security pact is a win for the US, and also a signal that PNG and its neighbors will be increasingly pressured to take sides.
G7 alignment & US political challenges
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a happy Monday. Quick take to start off your week as President Biden is back in the United States after the G7 Summit in Hiroshima.
What do we think? How did it go? Well, I mean a couple of very different takes. First of all, the G7 is enormously aligned, most particularly on Russia. I have never seen this level of outpouring of support. Every individual member of the G7 engaged personally with Ukrainian President Zelensky, the level of international aid coordination, diplomatic engagement, military support across the board continues to be at exceptionally high levels, not what Putin would've expected, not what the G7 would've expected before the Russian invasion, and that certainly helps to put Zelensky in a stronger position to negotiate with the Russians after a counter offensive over the coming months.
Furthermore, on China, more coordination from the G7, the term of art is de-risking, and everyone is increasingly using that term concerns about Chinese economic coercion. Not that the Chinese are the only country in the world that engages in economic coercion. People have been on the other side of that from the United States, from other G7 economies. But when the G7 gets together and compares notes and sees how the Chinese are willing to use a dominant economic position to engage and lever political pressure on those countries, the G7 realizes they are much better off coordinating their policies than they are by themselves. And you are seeing that.
Now, most of that is the Europeans moving more closely to the United States in concerns about Chinese political security and economic practices. Some of it is the Americans talking less about decoupling and accepting a more proactive continuity of overall G7 China economic relations and interdependence that is important and necessary. But what's significant is that these relations are coordinated and the Chinese see that, and they see that they are not able to drive a bus through divisions between the United States and Canada on one side, Europeans on the other in how China is able to engage politically, and that does matter.
Having said all of that, that sounds like a great G7 for everyone concerned, but of course, a lot of these leaders are quite weak at home, quite unpopular at home, and the big problem is absolutely President Biden who had to cut short a dinner with the heads of state and then had to cancel a trip to Papua New Guinea, doesn't sound all that important, except all of the leaders of the Pacific Island states were coming to PNG in order to meet with Biden. These are countries where the Chinese are dominant economically and the Americans are trying to provide more security relations. Couldn't do that. Canceled on the BRICS summit too, visit to Australia, and to the Prime Minister in his hometown. Kind of embarrassing, at the last minute, he got a phone call, at least from Biden before the announcement. Papua New Guinea only got it afterwards. Well, they're
tiny place, but still doesn't look great.
And why is it happening? Dysfunction in the US political system and everyone gets that the debt limit needs to be resolved. Everyone gets that the Americans have to make good on paying off debts that they have already incurred, and yet Congress and the US president continue to be headlong moving towards crisis. Only 10 days left until June 1st in the so-called X date. According to Janet Yellen, Secretary of Treasury, that is when the debt comes due. And you don't have enough time at this point to get a deal that then can be voted through the House of Representatives without Republicans bolting from McCarthy and undermining his speakership.
So at this point, either there's going to be a short term extension or you're going to hit the X date. One of those two things I think is going to happen. In other words, there is going to be a much bigger crisis, at least sense of crisis before you can resolve this problem and that level of US political dysfunction on display in the G7, on display with the Chinese, on display most everywhere in the world, the biggest challenge to America's strength continues to be at home politically.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
The US-China fallout from Biden’s PNG no-show
On Monday, Joe Biden was scheduled to make a historic stopover in Papua New Guinea coming from the G-7 summit in Japan and on his way to the Quad huddle in Australia. It would have been the first visit by a sitting US president to a country that often flies under the radar yet has immense geopolitical significance.
But Biden decided to cut short his trip and return stateside after the G-7 to negotiate a debt ceiling deal with Republicans in Congress. This did not go down well in PNG.
“It is a disappointment,” says Patrick Kaiku, who teaches politics at the University of Papua New Guinea. “[Prime Minister] James Marape invested so much time and energy into this major event, anticipating it for his own standing in the region, and also as a reaffirmation of the US [prioritizing] the Pacific and PNG.”
What’s more, Biden didn't even get on the phone himself to inform Marape, unlike the US president did with Australian PM Anthony Albanese. (Although Biden belatedly called the PNG to smooth things over, a snub is a snub.)
First, what’s all the fuss about PNG? The island nation often gets a bad rap. The capital, Port Moresby, is considered one of the most dangerous cities in the world, especially for women, and in the countryside, an estimated 200 people are killed annually for being — yikes — "witches."
But PNG is also an anthropological gem as well as the world's most linguistically diverse country, with some 840 languages spoken by thousands of ethnic groups among its 9 million people.
Despite being rich in natural gas, timber, and minerals like copper and gold, PNG remains one of the world's most underdeveloped countries. Yet, in recent years it's become the big prize for two heavyweights jostling for power in the Pacific: the US and China.
Biden is wooing PNG to counter Beijing's growing clout in the region, where the Biden administration has been scrambling to regain a foothold since April 2022. That’s when China quietly inked a security agreement with the nearby Solomon Islands, raising the specter of a future Chinese military presence in a part of the world America had neglected for decades.
Xi Jinping then tried to sign up more Pacific countries, although US pressure convinced most of them to pass. Biden later hosted Pacific leaders at a White House summit and had planned to follow up by meeting them again in PNG.
Biden and Marape were going to sign a landmark defense cooperation and maritime surveillance pact, which must be ratified by parliament before it becomes law. Details were murky, but a leaked draft showed that the Americans would have broad autonomy to access PNG airspace and ports — presumably to snoop on Chinese navy patrols — in exchange for PNG getting US satellite data to track illegal fishing.
After Biden’s no-show, PNG could give the deal a second look. It "allows space for the domestic debate about this very unconstitutional and unusual agreement," Kaiku says. "PNG has literally conceded its sovereignty and allowed immunity to foreign powers."
If that happens, Xi might give Marape a call. But PNG — as any country caught in the zero-sum crossfire of US-China competition — would rather just get along with both Washington and Beijing.
One the one hand, China is by far PNG's largest trade partner. Chinese companies are hungry for raw materials from PNG, a member of China's Belt and Road Initiative to fund (badly needed) infrastructure development. On the other, PNG is also eager for US investment to move its economy beyond extracting natural resources, and for US military tech support to better police its territory and waters.
Still, PNG has little faith in rhetorical pledges of commitment from either side. The only major power with a long-term strategic interest in PNG is southern neighbor and US ally Australia, which is now negotiating a separate security gig with its former colony.
"The US is not going to be permanently engaged with PNG. It is China that has somehow gotten the US interested all of a sudden in the Pacific, [which] is not important strategically to America," says Kaiku. "Whether the US is trusted or not is irrelevant."
A protester holds a portrait of former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont during a protest in front of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
What We're Watching: Catalan separatist off the hook, Biden's special counsel, Oz-PNG deal, Czech election, nukes for South Korea?
Spanish justice gives up on Catalan fugitive
After trying for more than five years to bring fugitive ex-Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont to trial for sedition, on Thursday a Spanish judge threw in the towel and dropped the charge. Why? The left-wing government of PM Pedro Sánchez has watered down the crime of sedition so much that it no longer covers what Puigdemont did in Oct. 2017: declare Catalonia an independent republic before skipping town when he was about to get arrested. And why did Sánchez tweak the law? Because he needs the votes of Catalan separatist parties in the national parliament to stay in power (which also explains why he pardoned the other politicians who tried to secede along with Puigdemont.) The judge's decision has big political implications in an election year. On the one hand, it's vindication for the Catalan independence movement, which has been losing steam since its failed secession bid. But on the other, it's a poison pill for Sánchez, whom the the Spanish right has long accused of pandering to Catalan separatists. The PM will get a sense of what Spanish voters think of his Catalonia policy in local and regional elections in late May, a dress rehearsal for a general vote in December.
Biden gets a special counsel, too
US Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday appointed a special counsel to lead the investigation into the discovery of two batches of classified files allegedly taken by President Joe Biden when he was VP. The White House has promised full cooperation. Garland has followed his playbook from a similar probe involving former President Donald Trump, who stashed 300+ classified files from the White House at his Mar-a-Lago pad and gave the Feds a hard time about it. While Garland’s move is unsurprising, the appointment of the special counsel can hurt Biden in two ways. First, it gives Republicans fodder to investigate the president in the House, regardless of Trump's own mishandling of sensitive government information. Second — and perhaps more importantly — it might mess with the Justice Department's own case against Trump and weaken the political argument to prosecute him as a presidential candidate in 2024. Even if the probe ends up not recommending charges for Biden, expect it to drag on for months and for the GOP to make a big stink about the whole thing. On another note, seriously, what's up with US presidents/veeps and classified files? Is it so hard to leave office without taking your past homework with you? Let us know what you think.
Oz & PNG working on security agreement
It's an open market for security pacts in the Pacific. Nine months after China clinched a controversial deal with the Solomon Islands, Australia is negotiating its own with Papua New Guinea and expecting to sign a security pact by June. This comes at a time when the US and its allies in the region are worried about Beijing's growing clout in a part of the world the West has long neglected. The leaders of the two countries promised transparency to contrast with China's secrecy, but so far the Aussies are keeping the details as much under wraps as the Chinese did. Regardless, the talks are quite a milestone for Australia-PNG relations given the messy legacy of Canberra's colonial rule. What's more, striking a deal would be a big win for Australia in its race to counter China because PNG has a lot of natural resources — fossil fuels, minerals, you name it — that Beijing is eager to get its hands on. We'll keep an eye on this in case the deal has any effect on Australia-China ties, now enjoying a warm-ish spell after years of frostiness.
Czech elections: round one, fight!
Czechs vote this weekend in the first round of a presidential election featuring three very distinct frontrunners. Leading the polls is Petr Pavel (“Peter Paul”!), a retired general and former top NATO official who’s running as a safe, Europhile pair of hands and a strong supporter of Ukraine. Just behind him is Andrej Babiš, a Eurosceptic populist agriculture tycoon who was prime minister from 2017-2021. Babiš has been dogged by allegations of corruption, though he was cleared this week by a Czech court. His ANO party, popular with older and more rural voters, remains the largest in parliament. Lastly, economics professor Danuše Nerudová, a progressive on social issues, has highlighted the importance of electing her as the country’s first female president. Czech presidents have limited powers, but they play a role in forming governments and represent the country abroad. Outgoing President Miloš Zeman, an ally of Babiš, fomented controversy throughout his 10 years in power, not least because of his overt sympathies for Russia. No one is expected to win outright in the first round — a runoff will be held in late January.
Wait, why did “Czechoslovakia” split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia 30 years ago? Read our recent explainer here.
South Korea mulls nuclear weapons ... again!
Nuclear rhetoric is heating up again on the Korean Peninsula, but this time the push is coming from South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol says that if the threat from the North continues, Seoul could develop its own nukes, or push the US to deploy them. Washington pulled its tactical nukes from South Korea in the 1990s, and it is unlikely to redeploy them. But Yoon isn’t coming out of left field. He has serious public support for developing nukes, and he’s not the first South Korean leader to have such ambitions. But considering the last time a South Korean leader proposed nuclear proliferation was in the 1970s, Yoon is the first one in decades to do so. He was elected last year with a mandate for a tough stance against Pyongyang, which has been amping up its missile tests and even flying drones into the South. Analysts say it’s unlikely that Yoon will actually go down the nuclear route. It’s more likely this stance could trigger China to convince its friends in the North to tone down the aggression, while also possibly push the US to extend its deterrence umbrella to the South.
What We’re Watching: German coalition talks, India’s power woes, Oz closes PNG migrant facility
German kingmakers make their pick: Despite fears of a drawn-out process that could take months like in 2017, the Greens and the pro-business FDP have taken less than two weeks to decide whom they want to team up with in a three-way coalition government. The two parties are now talking to the left-of-center SPD, which narrowly won the September 26 federal election. Good news for those hoping to have a new government in place before Christmas, since it'll be easier for the SPD to agree on stuff with its two junior partners than for the Greens and the FDP to find common ground themselves. Bad news for the conservative CSU/CDU, which has governed Germany for 16 years under Chancellor Angela Merkel but is likely headed to the opposition after achieving its worst election result ever.
India's energy crunch: While Europe is short on gas and China is suffering blackouts, India is now on the brink of its own energy crisis these days as supplies of coal — the country's main fuel for power generation — are dwindling fast. Monsoons and flooding have shut down major coal mines and delivery routes, right as seasonal demand picks up around several major holidays. Delhi is warning that some coal plants have just four days worth of supplies left. Rationing and imported coal are two likely solutions, but both would drive up prices for energy, stoking inflation at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is already facing criticism for failing to deliver strong economic growth and job creation.
Australia to close migrant detention facility: After eight years, Australia will finally shutter a controversial detention facility for asylum-seekers and refugees in Papua New Guinea. But the roughly 100 migrants still there will soon have to choose between two bad options: settle in the violence-ridden streets of Port Moresby, the most violent capital you've never heard of, or transfer to Australia's last remaining offshore processing center in Nauru, an inhospitable Pacific island that's even farther away from Australian shores. But otherwise little will change — Canberra won't relax its 2013 policy of automatically turning down asylum-seekers who arrive by boat, because doing so remains popular. Back in 2017, when the government was forced to close down another facility on the PNG island of Manus over human rights abuses, almost half of Australians still supported keeping the "boat people" away.Gunmen massacre 18, including children, in Papua New Guinea attack
SYDNEY (REUTERS) - Gunmen have massacred as many as 18 people including women and children in a remote village in Papua New Guinea, apparently the latest victims of a tribal feud, and Prime Minister James Marape vowed on Wednesday (July 10) to hunt down the killers.