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The Graphic Truth — China vs. India: How do they stack up?
India is set to imminently overtake China as the world’s most populous country. Demographic growth is a sensitive topic for both countries, but particularly for the Chinese, who are worried about recent population decline and its impact on domestic productivity.
Still, for all the emphasis on population size, it is just one metric contributing to the development of a country’s labor force – and economic growth. So what else matters? We compare some other indicators impacting India and China’s respective economic trajectories.
Scott Galloway on population decline and the secret sauce of US success
The United States is already feeling the effects of population decline, and in an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, tech expert and NYU Professor Scott Galloway warns that we're verging on "population negative."
With many people choosing not to have kids due to financial constraints, Galloway suggests that AI may be a solution. He points to countries like Japan and Italy that are already experiencing negative population growth and are feeling the negative effects.
To counter this trend, Galloway proposes creating a context of economic security that provides more opportunities for young people to have families.
But he doesn't stop there, arguing that immigration is a key part of the solution that has driven the US economy in the past, while other countries that refuse to open their borders to immigrants, like Japan, have suffered.
Catch Bremmer's full interview with Galloway in this week's episode of "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer," airing on public television stations nationwide. Check local listings.
- The AI arms race begins: Scott Galloway’s optimism & warnings ›
- The Graphic Truth: Where populations are rising ... or falling ›
- China has a big population problem ›
- Will Japan grow its population before it's too late? ›
- Ian interviews Scott Galloway: the ChatGPT revolution & tech peril - GZERO Media ›
- The global population is aging. Is the world prepared? - GZERO Media ›
Will Japan grow its population before it's too late?
What if a hypothetical government, overtaxed by an aging, shrinking population, decided to ask its seniors to make the ultimate national sacrifice to voluntarily die?
That’s the premise of "Plan 75," a 2022 indie film that predicts a grim dystopian and not-too-distant future for a fictional Japan, where the elderly are offered compensation to submit to euthanasia and avoid being a burden to society when they turn 75.
Sure, it’s just a movie, but nowhere is more at risk of a demographic implosion than Japan. With a median age of 49, it’s the world's oldest country, and 28% of people are 65+. The nation of 125 million — whose annual births dropped below 800,000 for the first time in 2022, eight years earlier than forecasted — is expected to lose almost one-third of its population by 2060.
As its population shrinks, Japan’s government is running out of time. “It is now or never when it comes to policies regarding births and child-rearing,” PM Fumio Kishida said on Monday during a speech in parliament.
For the first time, he’s made reversing Japan’s declining fertility rate (1.38 births per woman) an urgent priority — as time-sensitive as doubling defense spending to counter military threats from China and North Korea.
Indeed, Kishida warned, “our nation is on the cusp of whether it can maintain its societal functions.” Within decades, the GDP of Japan, now the world’s third-largest economy, might contract to the point where it struggles to keep the lights on because it won’t have enough productive workers.
The declining births are a "huge pothole on Japan’s road to economic growth," says David Boling, Eurasia Group’s lead Japan analyst.
"It means Japan has to squeeze more and more productivity out of fewer and fewer people. Technology, artificial intelligence, and robotics can help gain back some of that lost productivity," he explains. "But it can only go so far.”
There are two ways to boost Japan's dismal birth rate from the domestic supply side. First, encourage couples to have more kids by paying them money. Second, support families with further economic benefits like paid parental leave or subsidized childcare. Kishida says he plans to double the national budget for families and create a new government agency to get Japanese to make more babies.
But "it’s not that simple," says Boling. "The government has provided financial incentives in the past and created a cabinet minister for dealing with the low birthrates. But the [births] continue to drop."
Meanwhile, Japanese women are giving birth less because fewer are getting married. Although that’s mostly due to more economic opportunities for them, many are also reluctant to tie the knot due to traditional domestic gender roles that put almost all the burden on women to take care of the house and kids.
There is something else Kishida could do that would actually fix the problem: welcome immigrants with families.
Unfortunately, for decades immigration has been a political taboo in Japan due to centuries of self-imposed isolation and a long-held defense of ethnic homogeneity among the right. Even an acute labor shortage in recent years has only resulted in slight relaxation of one of the world's strictest immigration policies.
"Rapidly increasing immigration would probably be the fastest way to reverse the population decline. But Japan resists that option," says Boling. For Japan to reverse course, he adds, "there must be a sea change in attitude about the benefits of immigrants."
Finally, Japan’s demographic erosion will be closely watched by its two East Asian neighbors, who view it as a cautionary tale they must avoid at all costs. China recently admitted its first population drop since 1961, while South Korea has reported the world’s lowest fertility rate for three years in a row.
If things really go south, would Japan implement Plan 75? Certainly not, but the director wouldn’t be too surprised if it did.
"After the film's release, I encountered the voice of people who strongly desire to have this option because they are afraid of their future living as the elderly," says Chie Hayakawa. "I feel that we Japanese are covered with [such a] sense of resignation and hopelessness [that we] cannot believe or expect our government to bring any solution to it."
Graph showing global fertility rates and life expectancies.
The Graphic Truth: Who's making enough babies?
Japan isn’t the only country worried about the social and economic impacts of its shrinking population. Many countries across East Asia and Europe have been grappling with similar demographic trends in recent years, with some countries, like Hungary, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at women to encourage more procreation. Conversely, Africa is home to the top 14 countries with the highest fertility rates in the world. However, poor healthcare access and conflict mean that the average baby born in Africa will live far fewer years than their European and East Asian counterparts. We take a look at countries with the highest and lowest fertility rates and their respective life expectancies.
The Graphic Truth: 8 billion, but nowhere near equal
The world's population hit 8 billion on Tuesday, according to UN projections. So, why should you care about this particular milestone? For one thing, population growth is slowing down, which means it'll take longer to reach 9 billion. That’s mainly a result of declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia. For another, 8 billion humans are now competing for increasingly scarce resources and territory in a planet already suffering the effects of climate change. Meanwhile, countries in sub-Saharan Africa are still having babies like there's no tomorrow — precisely where people have the least access to basic stuff like food, electricity, the internet, or water.
This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
The Graphic Truth: Where populations are rising ... or falling
The world is currently 8 billion people strong – and is expected to hit almost 10 billion by 2050. That's well into the future, but for the next three years, the UN actually predicts annual population growth will be just under 1%, with vast disparity among regions. Where are populations growing the most and least, and even declining? We take a look at short-term growth trends ahead of World Population Day on July 11.
Hard Numbers: Chinese birth rates dip, Hong Kong culls hamsters, Barbados’ snap vote, Colombian leaders targeted
7.52: Birth rates in China dropped to a record low 7.52 per 1,000 people in 2021, down from 10.41 in 2019. This comes as the Chinese Communist Party is trying very hard to boost birth rates to revive a slowing economy.
2,000: Hong Kong’s agriculture department has asked pet store owners to hand in about 2,000 hamsters to be culled after a dozen of the rodents – which came from the Netherlands – tested positive for COVID-19. Most scientists say that in most cases, animals can’t infect humans.
145: At least 145 activists, including indigenous leaders and trade unionists, were killed in Colombia in 2021 amid ongoing fighting between warring militant groups. That’s down from 1,832 the year before, according to a new report by the country’s ombudsman. Most of the killings occurred in areas where drug trafficking is rife.
1: Barbados will hold its first election since becoming a Republic and ditching the Queen as head of state late last year. Mia Motley, the island's first female prime minister, is vying to win a second term.
Hard Numbers: The world's longest school closures, India's regional votes, Bulgaria’s shrinking population, Suu Kyi convicted again
30: After being shuttered for close to two years because of COVID, Ugandan schools finally reopened Monday. But the government says that 30 percent of students might never return to school because they have started work to help support their families or been forced into marriages. Some 15 million children have been impacted by these closures.
5: Indian officials say they will proceed with five state elections on February 10 despite record numbers of new omicron cases that have prompted fresh lockdowns in some states. However, pre-voting rallies have been banned, which is a particularly big deal for candidates in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, where opposition forces are trying to chip away at the dominance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.
11: Bulgaria’s population shrunk by more than 11 percent over the past decade, according to its latest census data. The country has the lowest per capita income in the European Union, and many younger residents have left to pursue economic opportunities elsewhere, while birth rates continue to decline.