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A drone view of three berths able to load vessels with oil is seen after their construction at Westridge Marine Terminal, the terminus of the Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project in Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada, April 26, 2024.
Alberta oil flowing, but that won’t help Trudeau
A pipeline that gave Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a huge headache is finally delivering benefits — to oil companies, at least — although Trudeau should not expect to get political rewards for his troubles.
Refineries in Washington state and Oregon are displacing Iraqi crude with cheaper oil from Alberta that is now available thanks to the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which moves bitumen-heavy Alberta crude from the oil sands in the north to the British Columbia coast.
Trudeau’s government has endured withering criticism from Western Canadians for failing to back the aggressive expansion of the emissions-intensive Alberta oil production. On the other hand, British Columbians opposed a potentially dangerous pipeline running to their beautiful coastal waters. Still, Trudeau brokered an uneasy compromise with Albertans, who couldn’t believe they had to sell their oil at a discount because of transport bottlenecks. To try to please both sides, in 2018, Trudeau bought the pipeline from Kinder Morgan for CDN $4.5 billion, which pleased nobody.
That decision is now looking like a win for the Canadian economy. There were huge cost overruns, but it will earn an estimated CA$26 to $38 billion over the next 20 years — and oil exporters don’t have to ship their product by railcar, which should get them higher prices, since they can reach new markets. The new oil in US refineries may give Americans slightly cheaper gas and, but the big winners are Canadian taxpayers, who are likely to benefit thanks to royalties and tax revenue for decades to come. Still, while it’s a big win for Alberta, Trudeau is unlikely to win any votes in the staunchly conservative oil patch, where his name is mud.
Canada's New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh speaks to journalists before Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada February 26, 2024.
Who are Canada’s semi-witting foreign interference accomplices?
A lingering foreign interference affair in Canada has the country asking who’s on who’s side – and when they’ll find out. A recent, heavily redacted report by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians alleged that some unnamed federal politicians have been “semi-witting or witting” accomplices in foreign efforts to shape Canadian politics.
The unnamed bit has politicians scrambling and Canadians guessing as to who’s done what. Those in the know are withholding the names, citing a lack of sufficient evidence for making public accusations – and leaving it up to law enforcement to decide. New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh says he’s confident his party and its members are clean, even though the report alarmed him. Singh went so far as to claim the report reveals some members of Parliament are “traitors.” But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said leaders ought to be “wary” of any such claim.
A separate, ongoing foreign interference commission, led by Justice Marie-Josée Hogue, has decided to take up the issue and will investigate – a move Trudeau welcomed. The inquiry’s report is due by Dec. 31, 2024, and may involve a deeper investigation into the matter, adding evidence and context. But it may also choose to withhold names. According to the commission, it has a duty “to respect the principles of procedural fairness and the fundamental rights of any person affected by its work, in compliance with the rule of law.”
Now, amid opposition claims that Trudeau is going light on foreign meddling, the questions turn to whether party leaders will deal with potential threats within their caucuses and whether Canadians will learn the names of those involved, which for now seems unlikely.
The upcoming 2025 election further complicates matters as parties try to distance themselves from the “traitor” label and, presumably, prefer that foreign countries don’t influence the outcome of Canada’s vote. But the wheels are turning slowly, testing the limits of a country that’s used to government opacity.