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As the Arctic melts, geopolitics heats up
As climate change warms the planet, the Arctic Circle ice cap will continue to melt. Beyond the ecological implications, a melting Arctic will open up new opportunities for resource extraction, trade routes, and….military operations. Few nations are more keenly aware of this than the United States and its adversaries, Russia, China, and North Korea.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to talk about how the United States will ensure that its economic and geopolitical interests continue to be met as the Arctic melts. And the threat goes beyond Russia. “China's flexing its muscles in the Bering Strait in the Arctic,” Dunleavy tells Bremmer. “ That's changing as well. So I think as a result of that, you're going to see, I hope to see a different approach by Washington involving our armed forces in Alaska.
Such ramp-ups cannot come a moment too soon, Dunleavy says, since the United States is outmatched when it comes to its presence of the crucial icebreaker ships needed to navigate the arctic passages. “I think what's going to happen is you're probably going to see more discussions on increased navy activity in Alaska,” Dunleavy tells Bremmer, “as well as the need for more icebreakers to joint patrols with our Canadian friends to the East.”
Watch full episode: As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
Alaska is on the front lines of an increasingly hostile US-Russian relationship. With the Arctic Circle melting and shipping lanes opening, things could get ugly fast.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy. He is clear-eyed about the growing military importance of Alaska as tensions rise in the Arctic, especially with increased Russian and Chinese activity in the region. “Alaska is truly the operational fort for North America,” he tells Bremmer. Dunleavy also calls for more investment in military infrastructure, including icebreaker ships, to secure America's Arctic frontier. “We only have two [icebreakers] in the United States. Because of Alaska's position and what is happening now geopolitically and with a warming Arctic, Alaska should have a minimum of five icebreakers."
Dunleavy also frames Alaska as “an energy and economic giant" poised to lead in America’s energy future. He underscores Alaska’s vast natural resources, from oil and gas to rare earth minerals. “We have 49 of the world's 50 rare earth elements. The largest gold mine on the planet is up there. The list goes on and on.” He also highlights Alaska’s renewable energy potential, including geothermal, wind, and tidal power, framing the state as a key player in the global energy transition.
Dunleavy, a Republican, also criticizes his state’s relationship with the federal government, which he says often treats the state "like a large national park." He argues that Alaska’s resources are critical not just for the state but for the nation, especially as the world shifts towards greener technologies that rely on rare minerals. The governor also emphasizes the need for streamlined federal permitting processes to fully unlock Alaska's potential, both economically and environmentally.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Ian Explains: Alaska is not just a state, it's a geopolitical outpost
Amid Russia's growing territorial aggression and a fast-warming Arctic, Alaska's physical place in the world has become more geopolitically relevant than ever. Alaska's northern coastline makes the US one of six countries with exclusive economic zones in the Arctic Circle. And while no country owns the North Pole—it isn't even land—it is constantly shifting sea ice, which is going to melt. But as that happens, the Arctic is opening up, and countries are now racing to lay claim to untapped deposits of oil, natural gas, and rare earth minerals, newly accessible shipping routes, and strategic military positions between North America and Eurasia.
Russia is winning by most metrics. The Russian government has more than three dozen polar icebreakers in its fleet, compared to two, not two dozen, two in the United States, giving it a strategic and operational advantage. Russia accounts for nearly half the Arctic population, more than half its coastline, and the Arctic industry. Moscow has spent years building up military outposts in the region as polar ice melts and its northern waters become exposed.
Russia's also increasing cooperation in the region with China, which sees the Arctic as an important part of its strategic economic and environmental interests. China is believed to be exploring a military presence there. NATO countries suspended political-level meetings with Moscow, and all international research projects have been put on hold. Until Arctic states can find a way to work together, rising tensions and a zero-sum game of territorial ambition will give the most remote part of the planet a lot more of our attention.
Watch Ian's interview with Governor Mike Dunleavy on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: Subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
"The next 50 years belong to Alaska" — An interview with Gov. Mike Dunleavy
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to explore the state’s pivotal role in America’s energy, technology, and national security. Alaska sits at the heart of some of America's thorniest geopolitical challenges. Its renewable resources, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and freshwater make it a critical part of the country's energy and technology futures, while its strategic location near Russia and China underscores its geopolitical importance. No one understands better than Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, who drills into Alaska's energy and economic potential and discusses US national security concerns within a melting Arctic on the GZERO World Podcast.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.Russian ship in the arctic
Alarm raised over Russian Arctic oil shipments
Russia has begun using tankers designed for southern waters to ship oil to China through icy Arctic waters off its northern shores, which has worrying environmental and security implications, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Russia moved about a dozen tankers through the passage in the last two months and is beginning to use tankers without so-called ice classification — stronger hulls designed for shipping in icy waters. Because of Western sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is increasing oil exports to China, and the northern route is shorter than the trip through the Suez Canal.
Why is this concerning? Because it appears to herald a new era of Chinese presence in the Arctic – and because a spill in these treacherous northern waters would be disastrous, spreading oil beyond Russian territory.
“I think it’s safe to say that a Russian oil spill in the Arctic would have catastrophic consequences given the fragility and remoteness of the ecosystem, which would hamper containment and clean-up efforts when that oil inevitably spread beyond Russian waters,” says Graeme Thompson, a global macro senior analyst at Eurasia Group.
The closer relationship between Russia and China is opening the door to more Chinese military activity in the Arctic. This has worrying implications, particularly for Canada, which has little capacity to monitor its vast northern waters. Last year, the Canadian military found Chinese monitoring buoys in Canadian waters, but it’s unclear how much activity Canada is able to surveil. A report from the country’s auditor general last year said that Canada has significant gaps in its ability to detect or track ships in the Arctic.
Canada has agreed to spend $4.6 billion over the next decade on upgrades to northern air defenses, but Canada has never spent the kind of money necessary to have a bigger presence in its Arctic waters, meaning this region is its weakest security link.
The thawing of Arctic ice is opening up northern waters to foreign shipping, both civilian and military, which ought to motivate policymakers to wake up to threats from a new frontier. But Canada is not moving to close the gap by boosting its spending to 2% of GDP – the level NATO guidelines recommend for military readiness. In fact, quite the opposite: Ottawa is looking for $1 billion in savings from its current budget.
“I think it’s pretty clear that Canada is largely dependent on the US for defense and surveillance in the far north,” says Thompson. “Although Ottawa is a critical security partner for Washington, its capabilities and capacity – both on the sea and in the air – to contribute to Arctic defense are not what one might expect from a country with such a large territory and coastline north of the Arctic Circle.”
“In some ways, this works fine for both the US and Canada – Washington takes the lead, and Ottawa is happy to let them – although that de facto arrangement could become more fraught as geopolitical competition heats up in the north.”
Scientists ride their snowmobiles near Kronebreen glacier through the arctic landscape in Norway.
Norway takes helm of icy Arctic Council
On Thursday, Norway became the chair of the Arctic Council, the leading forum for intergovernmental cooperation in the region. The transition has been muted, but the stakes are high: It’s taking over from none other than Russia.
As the Arctic heats up as a geopolitical theater (China has called it one of the world’s “new strategic frontiers”), managing it well is top of mind for Arctic states like Canada and the US.
What is the Arctic Council? It was created in the 1990s to facilitate cooperation on issues like sustainable development, environmental preservation, and search and rescue, though notably not on security. The council is made up of the eight Arctic nations (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the US), plus reps from the region’s Indigenous Peoples and observer states like China. Leadership rotates every two years, and Russia was halfway through its term when it invaded Ukraine last year.
Until the invasion, the Council was a solid example of post-Cold War cooperation.
Even after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, it remained a unique space for friends and adversaries alike to find common ground.
Not so these days. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the other Arctic nations froze their Council work with Moscow, leaving a third of the body’s 130 projects on hold.
Icing Russia out could compromise the Council’s viability. Over half of the Arctic’s coastline and almost half its population are Russian. Real progress in fighting climate change and managing a growing international interest in the region with only half the picture? Good luck.
Norway gets that. “Probably, the most important outcome of our time as chair will be that we make sure that the Arctic Council survives," Norway’s Senior Arctic Official Morten Høglund said.
Failure to advance a meaningful agenda for circumpolar affairs and sustain the council’s viability “would be a major blow to multilateral efforts to grapple with issues like climate change, which has an outsized impact on Indigenous peoples in the fast-warming Arctic region,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson.
Could Norway invite Russia back into the fold? Høglund has pledged to restart communication, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre recently said that “there may come a time to move forward again. And I would warn against … cutting Russia out of the map as if it is no longer there. It is.”
And don’t forget about China. Beijing says it hopes Norway can restore the council’s cooperative work and is vowing to “play a constructive role.”
As it took the helm on Thursday, Norway offered to host a council meeting in 2025. All members would be invited, which means Russia might soon come in from the cold.- Welcome to Antarctica: A conflict-free zone - GZERO Media ›
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