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What Russia and North Korea gain from defense treaty
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
North Korea ratified a major defense treaty with Russia. What do both sides hope to gain?
Well, the North Koreans really want mutual defense. They are helping the Russians out in their time of need, sending a whole bunch of troops, things that the North Koreans have in surplus and don't really value and the Russians can really use right now. And they would love to see Russian troops in North Korea. They'd love to see that appear as mutual defense and give the North Koreans a lot more leverage so they are not forced to be supplicants in Beijing, and they can also be more assertive versus South Korea, Japan, and others. This is a major escalation in this war and a big problem geopolitically.
The Russians, of course, are just looking for more troops, more ammunition, more ability to fight, and they are in a much, much stronger position to get terms that they want from the United States and from the Ukrainians. Especially now that the US has elected somebody that says he really, really wants to end the war. Putin will be like, "Okay, but here are the things that I need if you want me to end the war." Trump's incented to give him a lot more of those than almost anybody in NATO right now.
Japan's PM survived a rare parliamentary vote. How will he tackle the country's sluggish economy?
Well, he is saying that he's going to do a lot more stimulus, and so basically blow out the budget. Exactly, not where he has been historically. Japan's economy is pretty flat. Interest rates are close to zero, though they've been pushing them up a bit, historically surprising, recently. It's not like companies are all itching to get into Japan. Their demography is falling apart, and most people are pushing their production elsewhere, so including Japanese companies. So it's a real challenge, and Ishiba is going to be there maybe for a year. This is a very weak LDP coalition government.
What do I expect to come from COP29, the new climate summit happening in Baku?
Well, the Americans are attending with their knees cut off because Trump is going to be president in a couple months and he will pull the Americans out of the Paris Climate Accord once again. The trajectory on post-carbon investment and the prices coming down at scale for the Americans and for everyone in the world is already way too well-developed to pull back, and that's a good thing. But the US is going to be focused more on additional permitting and for oil and gas and production increases. Even beyond the record levels that they are right now under the Biden administration. They'll go further.
And so it's really, the Americans are going to be pretty marginalized at this summit, and the Chinese are driving the bus. They're producing a lot more coal, of course, but at the same time, they're also producing a hell of a lot more post-carbon renewables at global levels. In other words, China's doing at global scale what Texas is doing in the United States. And that is making them much more important as decision-makers.
NATO likely to respond if Russia sends North Korean troops to Ukraine
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With reports of North Korean troops in Kursk, what is the likelihood of NATO directly intervening in the Ukraine-Russia war?
I do think that North Korean troops fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war is a major escalation, will lead to tougher sanctions, will lead to greater likelihood the Americans decide to allow for Western missiles to be used to target targets inside Russia. But the ultimatum that's been given is that if Russia deploys North Korean troops inside Ukraine itself, then NATO will respond with combat troops in Ukraine. That is a major escalation in this war. It is meant for the Russians to take it very seriously. I hope that Putin accordingly decides to keep those North Korean troops in Russia itself. And I know that the Chinese also are very concerned about where this is going. So, we'll watch this very closely.
Moldova's pro-Western President secured a second term after narrow runoff win. Does her victory reflect Western strength against Putin?
I'm not so sure. I mean, first of all, of course, lots of efforts by the Russians themselves to interfere monetarily, disinformation in this election, the way they did successfully in Georgia. In the case of Moldova, you have an awful lot of Moldovans voting that were outside Moldova legally, but that's what turned this race. It wasn't the people on the ground. And it was, as mentioned in the question, very tight indeed. This helps them stay on track with the European Union membership. But there's a very large Russian population in breakaway Transnistria with Russian troops on the ground. And I suspect that Putin and the Kremlin has no interest in giving up on this. So, it's going to keep going in the coming years.
How is the political rift between Bolivia's government and the former President Evo Morales affecting the country's stability and economy?
Well, Bolivia, extremely mountainous, very easy to shut down the economy. Just roadblocks in some of the mountain roads that are hard to move along and that means that you can't get goods through and massive inflation. And that's what's happening right now. And he, though he's from the same party as the president, believes that he's being mistreated. They're going after him for all style of corruption. Does appear to be legitimate charges, but he has leverage with a lot of Bolivians that are turning out in his favor. So I suspect if they don't come to some kind of compromise, this is going to hurt the economy there quite a bit. Not the only place we have instability in the world. And then we'll see what happens in the US later today. Be good and I'll talk to you all real soon.
What does Russia give in exchange for North Korean troops?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What are the global consequences of North Korean soldiers now appearing on the frontlines in Ukraine?
Well, I think first, it's a reflection of the fact that Russia President Putin, does have difficulties getting the manpower to man the front lines. He has difficulty recruiting in Russia itself. He's dependent upon soldiers, and evidently, he's now dependent upon North Korea to supply the front lines. I mean, that's a sign of at least long-term weakness in terms of Russia. Then the question is, of course, what has he given in return to the sort of dictator in Pyongyang? In all probability, high-tech and different sorts of military equipment. And that, of course, has serious implications or potential serious implications for stability on the Korean Peninsula. So there are consequences on the frontlines in Russia and on the Korean Peninsula.
What’s the nature of the agreements that German Chancellor Scholz concluded during his recent visit to Delhi?
Well, apart from bilateral German-Indian things, he was putting an amount of pressure on the Indians to move forward on the negotiations ongoing for a free trade agreement between the European Union and India. That's been negotiations that have been going on for quite some time. It's been a valley of tears because of slightly different approaches from the European and the Indian side. But it's clearly very much in the mutual interest to have such an agreement concluded, particularly since we don't know what's going to happen in the US. And more choppy waters when it comes to global trade. So let's see if there is any progress coming out of the visit. It remains to be seen.
Putin's rare North Korea visit will deepen ties
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Putin's rare visit to North Korea strengthen anti-West alignment?
It's deepening the relationship. There's no question. He hasn't been in North Korea in decades. And I mean they call it the Hermit Kingdom. It's completely totalitarian. It's incredibly poor. But they have a massive military and they've been providing an awful lot thousands and thousands of train containers, of weaponry, of ammunition, of artillery. And those containers haven't gone back empty from Russia. And there's been a lot of sense of technology that's been transferred. The interesting thing will be whether or not, this leads to more provocative North Korean behavior vis-à-vis the South and Japan, because they think they can get away with it because they have coverage from Russia. And will they start coordinating diplomatically, in response to the NATO threat, in response to, you know, the way that the war in Ukraine is going? Be interesting to watch. It's not what China wants to see, but that is certainly a piece of what happens when a couple of states considered pariahs and rogues by the West, are developing a real alliance.
Is escalation of war between Israel and Hezbollah inevitable?
Nothing's inevitable. It's looking more likely by the day. I've been very concerned about this second front. I didn't think it was going to open up in the early months because Israel is a small country and they've got a lot of people, a lot of forces that are fighting on the ground in Gaza. But as the war in Gaza, I don't want to say wraps up because I don't think that's going to happen, but at least winds down and becomes less about taking and controlling and rooting out Hamas in across all of the territory, and is less military intensive in terms of troops, then the Israelis can move a lot of those troops up to the north. And I think that is increasingly likely in part, because you have 100,000 Israelis that are evacuated still. And the Israeli leaders say a lot, you know, they got to get them back for the school year. That's September. It's coming up soon. And secondly, because Hezbollah is increasingly engaging in strikes against Israel and most recently, really invasive surveillance drone, you know, intervention, including the port of Haifa. So it's really showing off to the Israelis that we're going to hit you hard. We're going to make this really hurt. They're a hell of a lot more powerful militarily Hezbollah is than Hamas. So if this happens, it's going to be a lot bigger deal in terms of the impact and the casualties.
Will President Biden's new citizenship plan bolster his campaign?
I guess a little bit in the sense that it's an issue that is top two for most voters, inflation and the migration issue. And, you know, he has been taking a harder line on number of migrants coming in. So now he's offering the spouses that don't have citizenship, but their spouses do, you know, are going to have improved treatment. That's a give, especially in a lot of states, where you have lots of those people, and states that he needs those votes. Every vote matters. Is it really gonna help his campaign at the end of the day? This is a tough one. On balance, I think that, Trump does better on this issue in the same way Biden does on abortion.
Russia's President Putin and North Korea's leader Kim meet in Amur region.
Putin toasts to “strengthening of cooperation” with Kim Jong Un
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for several hours on Wednesday in Russia’s far east region amid reports that the Kremlin is looking to buy ammunition and weapons from Pyongyang due to dwindling stockpiles at home.
What's more, as the meeting was underway, North Kora fired two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast that landed in the sea.
It was the first time that Kim, an international pariah, has left the North in some four years. Putin, for his part, walked his friend through Russia's most modern space rocket launch site, while confirming that “all issues” were on the table – a nod to the fact that Pyongyang wants both economic aid – notably food and grain – and military tech in the trade.
The Kremlin also held a state dinner to reinforce the budding friendship.
The two also toasted to Putin’s war in Ukraine, with Kim affirming that North Korea “stand with Russia in the anti-imperialist, self-reliant front.” Still, as an increasingly isolated Putin looks for more friends, as Ian Bremmer notes, using the pariah Kim to prove that he’s not totally isolated – particularly just as the UN General Assembly gets underway in New York – is hardly a winning diplomatic strategy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un.
Kim Jong Un meets Vladimir Putin
Infamous North Korean recluse Kim Jong Un does not leave the Korean Peninsula much, but he’s currently on route to Russia to meet Vladimir Putin.
It’s the first time that Kim, who’s making the long journey by train, has left the North in some four years, and his last trip abroad was also to the Russian city of Vladivostok where he’s expected to disembark on Tuesday. The Kremlin is treating it as a full state visit.
What do the two autocratic leaders want from one another? After 18-months of war in Ukraine, the Kremlin is reportedly in the market for weapons due to depleted stockpiles and large quantities of faulty munitions. What’s more, Western sanctions have made it harder for Russian arms companies to import critical parts to make new weapons. The Kremlin has already turned to fellow rogue friend Iran for assistance.
But Pyongyang can help too. Having invested the bulk of state funds into his war machine – even as his population goes hungry – Kim Jong Un has rockets, ammunition and artillery shells aplenty to offer the Kremlin, many experts say.
It wouldn’t be an unprecedented move either: Pyongyang has long helped sanction-hit states like Syria and Myanmar skirt sanctions by selling them arms.
That said, given North Korea’s penchant for secrecy, it’s impossible to know how much help Kim can really offer – Vladimir Putin will most certainly want to know.
What does Pyongyang want in return? The cash-strapped, heavily sanctioned regime reportedly wants grain and cheap oil from Moscow. Kim may also want access to advanced rocket technology for his nuclear weapons program. Still, both sides will have to come up with prices the other is willing to accept.
Two rogues sending a message: Setting aside the transactional nature of the meeting it also provides an opportunity for two leaders isolated from the West to show that they have options – even if those options aren’t great.
The Graphic Truth: Russian and Chinese oil exports to North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Russian Pacific port city of Vladivostok is in part meant to highlight that both leaders – though isolated – still have friends in high places. Putin is expected to ask for additional arms from North Korea, while Pyongyang wants economic and material help as it struggles with ongoing food shortages and perennial economic mismanagement.
Here’s a look at recent oil exports to North Korea from Pyongyang’s two closest allies, Russia and China.
A TV screen shows an image of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Pyongyang.
North Korea hacked who now?
For five months in 2021-2022, North Korean hackers ran wild in the systems of a top Russian missile company, according to a new report by Reuters.
The breach of NPO Mashinostroyeniya, which makes Russia’s cutting-edge hypersonic cruise missiles, was discovered by Reuters and a team of cybersecurity experts who were tipped off when an IT person at the Russian company uploaded info about the hack to a server monitored by global cyber analysts.
These are friends, right? Despite some hiccups over the years about Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programs, Moscow and North Korea have generally enjoyed good relations, and since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two countries have drawn closer as Putin looks for non-Western partners who know a thing or two about isolation.
It’s unclear what intel the North Koreans got in the hack. But experts note that shortly afterward, Pyongyang debuted a missile powered by solid fuel, a tricky technology that makes it easier to deploy the weapons undetected. NPO Mashinostroyeniya had been developing similar fuels.
The company discovered the breach itself, but we don’t know if the Kremlin was informed, so keep an eye on Russia-North Korea ties in the coming weeks for any fresh fallout.
Either way, the episode shows two things: First, Russia’s elite military technologies are hackable by those with the right skills, and second, there’s a trust deficit even in the Kremlin’s closest partnerships. Recall that Russia recently arrested a scientist for passing hypersonic secrets to China.
And yes, there’s a song for this: GZERO’s Puppet Regime satire series is on it. “With friends like these, who really needs enemies?”