Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Cartridges lie on the flags of Russia and North Korea.
North Korea keeps shipping, Russia keeps shooting
For 20 months now, Russia has been shelling Ukraine nonstop — sometimes as often as 80,000 times a day. But even as the war grinds into a deepening stalemate, Western intelligence officials say the Kremlin still has the firepower to keep pounding Ukraine at least through the end of next year.
Estonia’s top defense spook said earlier this week that Russia has at least 4 million artillery shells in its arsenal, enough to hit Ukraine at the current rate of 10,000-15,000 times daily until New Year’s Eve 2025.
A big part of that stockpile has come from North Korea, which reportedly ramped up military cooperation with Russia after a September summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Western intelligence services believe, based on satellite imagery, that Pyongyang has recently sent as many as 500,000 pieces of ammunition to Russia.
Last week, US President Joe Biden asked Congress to approve another $61 billion in aid for Ukraine, more than half of which would reportedly go to military support.The powerful Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu (R) and General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff of Russia armed forces
Russian brass collared for graft
Evidently this sort of dirty side hustle has become a trend lately in and around Moscow, and the Kremlin is looking to crack down.
But it’s also worth noting that the two generals were until recently in charge of Moscow’s air defenses. As Ukrainian drones continue to penetrate deep into Russian territory – including a number of reported attacks on Moscow itself – the Kremlin may be making an example of these two for a reason.
After all, corruption is widespread in Putin’s system — but getting busted so publicly is a signal that you’ve fallen out of favor. (Falling out of windows is sometimes the next phase of the downfall, but we’ll put a floor under these metaphors here.)
Don't count Yevgeny Prigozhin out
In late June, the oligarch, longtime Putin ally, and Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin shocked the world (and Vladimir Putin) when he marched his troops through Russia in what appeared to be a coup against Moscow. Although he backed down, Marie Yovanovitch, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, thinks the story is far from over.
"There are probably a number of different phases of the Prigozhin rebellion," Yovanovitch tells Ian Bremmer in the latest episode of GZERO World, "and we're not at the end of it yet."
So why hasn't Putin more brutally punished Prigozhin and his followers for insubordination? And how should the West take advantage of this internal strife within Russia?
Watch this episode: Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink
And watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
Putin's endgame in Ukraine
We still have a lot more questions than answers about Vladimir Putin’s political future and Russia’s war in Ukraine after Wagner Group head Yevgevny Prigozhin’s 24-hour attempted mutiny and subsequent exile to Belarus.
On the first episode of GZERO World’s newest season, Ian Bremmer spoke with former Carnegie Moscow Center director and Kremlin ally Dmitri Trenin about the Russian view of the war and Putin’s endgame in Ukraine, just hours before Prigozhin announced his armed rebellion.
According to Trenin, Putin has strong public support to continue fighting in Ukraine because the Russian people see the war as an existential battle with NATO and the collective West for the future of Russia itself.
“Russia is being ganged up against because of its determination to protect and defend its own national interest,” Trenin says, “That's how it's seen.”
Before the war, Trenin was known as someone who could speak evenhandedly, even critically about Russia and translate its motivations for a western audience. But after the invasion––and after months of saying it wouldn’t happen––he rebranded himself as a hardliner and deeply support’s the Kremlin’s view of the war in Ukraine.
GZERO World strives to present a diverse range of views. Many will strongly disagree with Trenin's opinions, but hearing Russia’s perspective on the war could bring a better understanding of the paths to compromise.
Tune into GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television stations nationwide. Check local listings. Watch our previous episodes at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
- Former Russian intelligence officer: Prigozhin's threat to Putin is “ludicrous” ›
- Russia-US nuclear war is no fantasy, says Kremlin ally ›
- Podcast: Russia's view of the Ukraine war: a Kremlin ally's perspective ›
- The Graphic Truth: Whom do Russians see as their friends? ›
- Ethnic Russians in Ukraine: A look back ›
- What do Russians really think of the war? ›
- Israel-Hamas war is a mixed blessing for Putin - GZERO Media ›
- Top stories of 2023: GZERO World with Ian Bremmer - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: Russia's view of the Ukraine war: a Kremlin ally's perspective
Listen: After months of grueling warfare, heavy casualties, costly equipment losses, and with little to show for it, what are Russia’s goals heading into the Ukrainian counteroffensive? Is there any hope for resolution in a conflict the Kremlin describes as an existential battle with NATO for the future of Russia itself?
On the first episode of the GZERO World podcast’s newest season, Ian Bremmer sat down with former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and Kremlin ally, Dmitri Trenin, to hear the Russian perspective of the war in Ukraine.
Bremmer and Trenin spoke just hours before Wagner Group head Yevgevy Prigozhin led an armed rebellion that made it within 125 miles of Moscow, a crisis that represented the single most brazen challenge to the Kremlin’s authority in post-Soviet Russia.
On the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer podcast, Trenin gives his opinion of Prigozhin’s role in Russia’s military, Russia’s goals in the war, its relationships with allies like China and Belarus, nuclear deterrence, and more. GZERO World strives to present a diverse range of views. Many will strongly disagree with Trenin's opinions, but hearing Russia’s perspective on the war could bring a better understanding of the paths to compromise.
- Podcast: Not infallible: Russia, China, and US democracy with Tom Nichols & Anne-Marie Slaughter ›
- Podcast: NATO’s Russia problem: the increasing danger of military confrontation between nuclear powers ›
- Podcast: Examining Putin: his logic, mistakes, and hope for Ukraine ›
- Podcast: Why Putin will fail: former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb ›
- Russia's war: no end in sight - GZERO Media ›
- Putin's endgame in Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
Prigozhin's exit shakes Putin's regime
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and quite a weekend.
We have just gotten through an unprecedented turn of events challenging President Putin in a way that he has not since he's taken power in that country. Mr. Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, built up directly by President Putin, he is solely responsible for Prigozhin's success and power and wealth, and then essentially declaring war against the Kremlin, moving his forces to within dozens of kilometers of Moscow. And then, at the last moment, "cutting a deal" brokered by Belarus's President Aleksandr Lukashenko. He is today still, to the best of our knowledge, a free man. But for how long? It's hard to imagine that's sustainable.
This is a man who has done a lot of fighting for the Russians on the ground in Ukraine, sending his troops into a meat grinder, as it's been referred to in Bakhmut, some of the only territorial gains that the Russians have had in the last six months. Lionized for that by Russian state media on billboards across the country over the past months, but also increasingly insubordinate, both in his public willingness to go after the Ministry of Defense, the forces, the command structure on the ground, and, in particular, Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu. And then, over the last week, when Shoigu said that all Wagner forces and all paramilitary forces had to sign direct contracts with the Ministry of Defense, in other words, they'd be rolling up to their authority. And Prigozhin said no and then Putin directly said, reiterating that order, "Have to sign. Those orders have to become conscripted under contract under Shoigu."
Prigozhin again said no. Put him in an impossible situation. He was essentially dead man walking if he was going to say no. And he said no. Of course, he wasn't in much better of a situation if he said yes, because then those troops no longer report to him, and that is his power base. So he ended up turning around from Ukraine and sending his troops first into Rostov uncontested, head seat of the Southern Military District where the command center for the Ukrainian offensive has been for the Russians. And then up towards Moscow. So that explains why he did it, but much harder to explain why he suddenly backed down and why he's still alive today. Why he backed down I think has more to do with the fact that he didn't have any support inside the Kremlin. I mean, while this was all going on, there were no defections among Russia's military leadership. There were no defections inside the government. There were no defections among Russia's key oligarchs.
Prigozhin is not only a creation of Putin, but is also outside the power structure. So inside the power structure, you don't have a lot of people saying, "I'm with him. I'm with stupid." And so he marches towards Moscow in an utter move of desperation but doesn't have the ability to beat the forces, or doesn't think he does, that are loyal directly to Putin and are accountable directly to Putin defending Moscow. And so then when he is offered a deal, he takes the deal. But I mean, anyone that believes that a deal offered by Putin after this level of personal challenge and embarrassment to the Russian President. People have been assassinated and jailed for a lot less in what they do to the all powerful, or previously all powerful Russian President.
So why is he still alive? And there I think it's a matter of timing. It's the fact that the Russian government has been fighting against this Ukrainian counter offensive, and if they were to have a fight against Wagner right now, and keep in mind the Ukrainian counter offensive hasn't gone very well, but most of the troops aren't involved yet, they have 11 plus trained and equipped divisions, trained by the US, by the UK and allies, only two and a half of them are already involved in the fighting, which means that Putin knew a lot more was coming. And if Wagner's not available, and the Chechen Kadyrov group, another paramilitary that has declared full loyalty to the Ministry of Defense, was pulling back to fight against Wagner and the MOD forces are going to need to be used for that as well.
Suddenly, the Ukrainians might have a clear ability to retake all the territory. So this was the worst possible time for Putin to go to war against Wagner. And perhaps that is the best explanation for why it is that they cut a deal. But the deal that was cut is not a deal that can't be broken. And, of course, now that the Wagner Group, their headquarters have been raided, it has been announced that all of their forces are going to sign direct contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin is, at least we believe, either headed to or in Belarus, probably in Belarus. Not a sovereign state. Intelligence, military, really under the control of Russia, just as Lukashenko primarily is. And so that means if Putin wants to take him out, it's more a matter of time than it is a matter of capability.
And I personally can't imagine that he's going to be with us for all that much longer. But a lot of damage has been done. The fact that around the world everyone has seen that when Putin has been challenged and challenged hard that the Russian forces did not stand up to the Wagner forces until they got close to Moscow. And they also showed that, at the last moment, Putin didn't use his forces against him, but instead let him walk away. That's a weakness for Putin internally that is being seen by the Russian people. It's being seen by Russian military elites and others. It's also being seen by other countries around the world.
The Chinese, supposed to be Russia's best friend, they didn't provide any military support for Putin when he was at his moment of greatest need. The Kazakhs, Russia sent over 2,000 paramilitary forces, parachutists, and others into Kazakhstan over a year ago before the Ukraine war was launched, because a coup occurred against President Tokayev. He really appreciated that support. He's there today because of that support. His willingness to support Putin, he said it was an internal Russian matter. So I mean, you look around the world right now, we have a very strong NATO, we have enormous support from NATO into Ukraine, and we have Russia pretty isolated on the global stage.
That's good for the Ukrainians, there's no question, and it's good for NATO's strategy, but it also increasingly gives Putin no outs. Someone considered a war criminal internationally and someone that now has been tested in a way he never expected to be by his own loyal former chef, the caterer, Prigozhin, who at least for now is in Belarus. This story is not close to over. Russia's stability is now a significant question in a way that it really was not just 72 hours ago, and I'm sure we're going to be talking about it quite a bit.
You go back to January this year. Our top risks as we look forward over the course of every year in terms of likelihood, imminence, and impact, number one, and not even close in any other risk that we've seen over the course of the 25 years that we've had Eurasia Group, was the idea of a rogue Russia. A Russia that increasingly has been decoupled from, isolated from, the advanced industrial economies of the world, and is acting out of a sense of risk acceptance and impunity. That rogue Russia risk has gone up significantly over the weekend.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Former Russian intelligence officer: Prigozhin's threat to Putin is “ludicrous” ›
- Prigozhin’s meltdown ›
- The man with his own army ›
- Prigozhin marches on Moscow: What we know, and what to watch ›
- What the war in Ukraine looks like inside Russia - GZERO Media ›
- Don't count Yevgeny Prigozhin out - GZERO Media ›
Former Russian intelligence officer: Prigozhin's threat to Putin is “ludicrous”
President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest challenge to his power in decades as Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin led thousands of his men toward Moscow this weekend in what Putin himself called an “armed rebellion.”
Wagner forces appeared to take control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, a major logistical base of operations for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin vowed swift action to crush the uprising. Prigozhin then made a deal to "avoid bloodshed" and called the whole thing off.
On next week’s Season 6 premiere of “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer,” Dmitri Trenin, former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and former Russian intelligence colonel, explains the view of the war from inside Russia. Speaking just hours before Prigozhin began his march, Trenin told Bremmer that it’s “ludicrous” to believe there is any serious threat to the Kremlin.
The fact that a former Russian intelligence officer and Putin ally didn’t see Prigozhin as a “challenge” hours before the Wagner chief launched his rebellion raises questions about whether the Kremlin and those closest to Putin seriously underestimated Prigozhin’s threat. The events of the last 24 hours certainly show that the Russian president’s grip on power may not be as iron-tight as previously believed.
Tune in to “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer” on US public television starting this Friday, June 30, to watch the full interview. Check local listings.
Japanese chef Mitsuo Ise prepares a "Germany" version of okonomiyaki ahead of the G-7 summit in Hiroshima.
Hard Numbers: Hiroshima’s delicacies, Italy’s first world problems, Durham's report, Russia’s military spending, Rudy's alleged pardons grift
800: Ahead of the G-7 summit later this week in Hiroshima, Japan, some 800 restaurants specializing in a local comfort food known as okonomiyaki are hoping to make a global splash. Okonomiyaki, which means “cooked as you like it,” is a savory pancake-shaped delicacy usually made with cabbage, noodles, batter, and meat. But locals are cooking up special editions for foreign dignitaries, including a sauerkraut one for the Germans, a carbonara one for the Italians, and a burger stuffed one for the Americans. Not all locals approve.
306: The FBI rushed its investigation of ties between Russia and Donald Trump's 2016 campaign to win the White House, according to Special Counsel Robert Durham. In a 306-page report, Durham says that the Feds pursued leads based on uncorroborated evidence and showed bias in their probe — although they did not commit the "crime of the century" that Trump often cites.
200 billion: Who among us has not struggled to spend 200 billion Euros? Just two years after receiving that amount in EU COVID relief funds, Italy can’t figure out how to make good use of it all by the 2026 deadline. About a third of it is earmarked for infrastructure and public health investment, but the rest is flowing to local governments that are trying to spend it on, say, artificial ski slopes, horseracing tracks, or — cheers to this last one — a grappa museum. Senior government officials now say they’ll overhaul how the money is allocated and spent.
282: Russia’s military spending soared 282% in just the first two months of 2023 to $26 billion. That’s about 40% of the Kremlin’s planned military spending for all of 2023. Meanwhile, Russia is already suffering a budget deficit of about $40 billion for this year, as Moscow continues to finance its invasion of Ukraine amid falling energy revenues.
2 million: A female ex-employee of Rudy Giuliani is suing the former New York City mayor and lawyer to Donald Trump for sexual assault and workplace harassment. According to the lawsuit, Giuliani once told the plaintiff that he was selling federal pardons for $2 million a pop, which he and Trump would split.