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Rwanda's incumbent President and presidential candidate for the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) Paul Kagame waves to his supporters as he arrives for his final campaign rally in Gahanga, Kicukiro district in Kigali, Rwanda, July 13, 2024.
Rwanda votes: Kagame looks set to secure fourth term
Rwandans are heading to the polls Monday for a presidential election, and while official results are not expected until next Saturday, President Paul Kagame – who won with a suspicious 98.8% of the vote in 2017 – looks set to secure a fourth term.
Kagame first came to power in 1994, when he led the rebel militia and overthrew the Hutu government responsible for the Rwandan genocide that killed over 800,000 people. He’s been in power for over three decades and oversaw the removal of term limits via referendum in 2015.
Praised for returning stability to the country, and for its emergence as a financial hub, Kagame has also come under increasing international scrutiny for alleged human rights violations and for backing rebel groups in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Voter turnout is expected to be high, but against a backdrop of crackdowns on the opposition and political dissent, there are valid questions as to how free and fair the election is. Only two opposition candidates – the same two allowed to face Kagame in 2017 – were cleared by the state-run electoral commission this time. Any candidate who stood even a chance of being competitive against Kagame was barred, imprisoned, or has reportedly since disappeared.
We’ll be watching to see the level of voter turnout and victory and to see how Kagame uses his next term to shape Rwanda’s foreign policy.
General view of Severodonetsk from the last floor of a damaged building in the outskirts of the city.
What We’re Watching: Russian progress in Ukraine, gun ban plans in Canada, DRC-Rwanda tensions
Ukraine update: Is the war really shifting?
In recent days, Russian forces have made incremental gains in the Donbas. Vladimir Putin’s military now controls most of Luhansk province, and they are close to taking the strategic city of Severodonetsk, which would open the way to a wider Russian occupation of Donetsk province. Russia has shifted strategy in recent weeks, withdrawing from areas it couldn’t hold around Kyiv and Kharkiv to focus on more limited objectives in the East and South. Some military analysts warn that Russia’s recent gains are still coming at a very high cost in terms of human losses and morale. But even these slight shifts in the winds of war have raised fresh questions in the EU and US about what comes next. Driving Russia out of the east and south does not seem immediately possible. And although Washington continues to send Ukraine advanced weapons, US President Joe Biden on Monday said he would exclude rockets that could strike into Russian territory. After more than three months of war, the Ukrainians are still fighting like hell to defend their country and their democracy, but it’s no clearer yet what a reasonably achievable endgame looks like for Ukraine, for its Western backers, or for Moscow.
Canada’s Trudeau goes after guns
Another mass shooting that killed US schoolchildren in Texas has provided Canada’s Justin Trudeau with a big political opportunity to propose new gun laws. The prime minister has promised stricter gun control, and his government has proposed a ban on the purchase, sale, transfer, or importation of handguns in hopes of freezing the number of personally owned handguns across Canada. Trudeau’s interest in tougher gun laws isn’t new; his government had expanded background checks for firearm purchases and proposed a ban on assault weapons before the latest US shootings. But Ottawa will also have to continue to increase funding for security at the US border to keep smugglers from expanding the black market for weapons and ammunition. Republicans will continue to block tougher gun rules in the United States, but in Canada there are enough votes from Trudeau’s Liberals and the leftist opposition New Democrats to ensure this latest handgun proposal becomes law later this year. How effective will it be in reducing gun violence? It will be years before that question can be answered.
Tensions rising between DRC and Rwanda
The Rwandan genocide ended in 1994, but its ripple effects continue today in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. On Monday, hundreds of people took to the streets of the DRC’s capital, Kinshasa, to call out Rwanda for allegedly supporting the notorious M23 rebels. (This armed group is made up of ethnic Tutsis who fled Hutu massacres in Rwanda some 28 years ago, and is currently staging its largest offensive in almost a decade.) The protesters want to kick out the Rwandan ambassador following a recent uptick in M23 violence in the eastern DRC, which has suffered near-constant conflict since Rwandan forces began crossing the border to go after escaped Hutu génocidaires. Rwanda, for its part, denies backing the M23 and on Saturday accused the DRC of being behind the kidnapping of two Rwandan soldiers by the FDLR, an anti-Rwanda Hutu armed group that operates inside the DRC and opposes the M23. If this all was not complicated enough, Ugandan forces recently entered the same region on a joint mission with the Congolese military to fight the Allied Democratic Forces, a jihadist outfit blamed for a string of attacks on civilians. We'll keep an eye on how this very messy situation plays out.
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Rwanda: The good, the bad, and the ugly
For many, Paul Rusesabagina became a household name after the release of the 2004 tear-jerker film Hotel Rwanda, which was set during the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
Rusesabagina, who used his influence as a hotel manager to save the lives of more than 1,000 Rwandans, has again made headlines in recent weeks after he was reportedly duped into boarding a flight to Kigali, Rwanda's capital, where he was promptly arrested on terrorism, arson, kidnapping and murder charges. Rusesabagina's supporters say he is innocent and that the move is retaliation against the former "hero" for his public criticism of President Paul Kagame, who has ruled the country with a strong hand since ending the civil war in the mid 1990s.
Indeed, this case reflects the full scope of complexities underpinning contemporary Rwandan politics and society.
Paul Kagame: A "benevolent dictator"
Much of Kagame's worldview was formed during his formative years growing up in a Ugandan refugee camp. An ethnic Tutsi, Kagame was one of hundreds of thousands who fled during the country's decades-long civil war to escape violent attacks by the Hutu-led government.
In the waning days of the Rwandan genocide — during which Tutsis were systematically raped, tortured and murdered by their Hutu neighbors, and some 1 million Rwandans were killed — Paul Kagame commanded the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RFP), a Tutsi militia that eventually ended the Hutus' murderous campaign, emerging as the most powerful political force in post-conflict Rwanda. Kagame became president in 2000.
Since then, Kagame has been credited with overseeing a period of stability and economic prosperity after one of the world's bloodiest conflicts, but critics accuse him of widespread human rights abuses.
Internal perceptions
While many Rwandans revere Kagame for his role in ending the conflict and then putting Rwanda on the map as one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, and one of the best places to do business in the world (in the World Bank's 2019 "Doing Business" report it ranked 29th out of 190 countries), he is also widely viewed as a strongman known for suppressing dissenting views and creating an atmosphere of growing mistrust and fear.
Indeed, politically motivated killings and enforced disappearances of high-profile political opponents in the years since Kagame took power are well documented, while human rights groups have long denounced arbitrary arrests and torture of Rwandans who dare to criticize the government.
Many Rwandans also lament the concentration of power amongst a small group of political elite who are loyal to the president. Kagame's reelection in 2017 — when he claimed to have reaped a fanciful 99 percent of the vote — was seen by many as a sham, reflective of the oppressive political environment the RFP has cultivated. Importantly, this contested election came just two years after Kagame held a referendum overriding term limits that would allow him to stay at the helm until 2034. (Vladimir Putin seemed to find this move inspiring, following suit this year.)
External perceptions
The international development community, and much of the West, have lauded Kagame for steering the country through a period of profound economic growth that's lifted at least 1 million people out of poverty. Meanwhile, Kagame's focus on expanding female representation in politics — over 60 percent of the country's lawmakers are women — has also endeared him to leaders in Europe and the US. (When US President Donald Trump met with his Rwandan counterpart in 2018, he praised Kagame's "absolutely terrific" leadership and said: "It's a great honor to have you as a friend." )
Additionally, the Kagame government's focus on promotion of new technologies and environmental policy (in 2019, Rwanda became the first African country to introduce a complete ban on all single-use plastics) has led to strong partnerships with economic heavyweights like Germany. The two countries recently created a joint pilot project to introduce electric cars to Rwanda, with plans to expand the electronic automotive industry throughout the region.
To be sure, while some Western leaders have condemned Kagame for his human rights record in the past — with Washington going so far as to cut military aid to Rwanda in 2012, citing the government's support for violent militias in the Democratic Republic of the Congo — most have been willing to look the other way because of the country's economic potential. (In the late1990s, leaders including US President Bill Clinton and the UK's Tony Blair repeatedly praised Kagame's leadership as visionary.)
A complex legacy
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, the Russian writer, philosopher and dissident, once said: "The battle between good and evil runs through the heart of every man." While Paul Kagame has pioneered reforms that have helped stabilize a war-torn country, many believe that his oppressive tactics have led to continued pain and suffering, making it hard for Rwanda's post-genocide society to fully heal.