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FILE PHOTO: Philippine Marines fold a Philippine national flag during a flag retreat at the BRP Sierra Madre, a marooned transport ship in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, March 29, 2014.
Philippines successfully conducts resupply through disputed sea under new deal
On Saturday, Filipino vessels carried food and supplies to the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed atoll in the South China Sea that has been the source of severely strained relations with Beijing in recent months. Manila deliberately beached a ship called the Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1997 to effectively control it and now must regularly resupply Marines based there.
The mission represents an early success for the recently signed deal between China and the Philippines intended to cool temperatures in the region and preserve the status quo through better coordination and communication.
Manila and Beijing’s coastguards reportedly communicated about the mission in advance, and Chinese ships did not shadow or intercept the Filipinos as in past attempted resupply missions.
While details about the deal have not been made public, both sides passed the first test with flying colors. Confrontations between Manila and Beijing had been posing a serious risk of escalation – and such encounters could spiral quickly given the longstanding mutual defense treaty between the US and the Philippines.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken applauded the peaceful coordination and said the US “[expects] to see that it continues going forward.”Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr review the honour guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China January 4, 2023
Can a hotline prevent war in South China Sea?
I know when that hotline bling, that can only mean one thing: Beijing and Manila are beefing over uninhabitable rocks again. China and the Philippines have reportedly set up a bilateral hotline meant to help them avoid a deadly incident in the disputed South China Sea.
The effort to improve communications follows a particularly violentconfrontation on June 17, when Chinese sailors surrounded and boarded Filipino vessels wielding bladed weapons. One Filipino sailor lost his finger, and the fear is that should someone lose their life, Manila could activate its mutual defense treaty with the United States.
The Biden administration has struck a nuanced position, assuring Manila that it would honor the treaty fully while also attempting to signal to China that they aren’t handing out carte blanche to the Philippines. Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says proactive communication after the June 17 incident has helped lower the temperature.
“Beijing interpreted the June 28 call between Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and China's Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu in particular as a clear signal that Washington does not support Manila in pushing its territorial claims too aggressively,” he said.
Being able to quickly pick up the phone and talk through future incidents is a useful pressure release valve, but longer term, the South China Sea and the shoals used to mark de facto control will remain a tension point. We are watching how it will affect US and Chinese efforts to stabilize their own relationship.
FILE PHOTO: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. looks on as he meets with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, March 19, 2024.
Manila-Beijing talks: Can they agree over South China Sea clashes?
Representatives from China and the Philippines met for crucial talks in Manila on Tuesday to put some guardrails on escalating tension in the South China Sea following a serious confrontation last month. Three of Manila’s ships were damaged on June 17 when Chinese sailors surrounded and boarded them while wielding edged weapons, and one Filipino sailor lost a finger.
Manila had hoped China would promise to pay for the damage they caused during the most recent incident. But the meeting ended without any substantial agreement beyond affirming a joint “commitment to de-escalate tensions without prejudice to their respective positions.”
Still, Washington is likely relieved both sides agreed to keep talking about ways to tone down the increasingly violent confrontations. The US has repeatedly warned China that it will honor its mutual defense treaty obligations to the Philippines if needed.
Neither side wants war, but both Beijing and Manila see the South China Sea issue as one of core sovereignty – both sides feel this is their territory – and don’t find much room for compromise. We’ll be watching any future negotiations that might keep a lid on things until the US election in November, which could cause strategic re-evaluations if Donald Trump wins.