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Members of the U.S. Secret Service Counter Sniper team stand guard near Air Force One at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., July 15, 2024.
DHS to probe Secret Service over Trump shooting
On Wednesday, the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general announced it was investigating the Secret Service’s handling of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. The office did not say precisely when it opened the investigation, which will run parallel to the independent review ordered by President Joe Biden.
The probe will focus on how the Secret Service failed to prevent the gunman from climbing onto a nearby roof with a clear shot at the former president. While there is no known connection between Iran and the shooter — whose motive remains murky — Saturday’s attack occurred at a time when the White House, Secret Service, and Trump campaign were reportedly aware of an alleged Iranian plot to kill Trump.
The security failure has drawn intense scrutiny, particularly from Republicans. House Speaker Mike Johnsonurged Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle to resign, and the House Oversight Committee said it would subpoena her if she failed to appear voluntarily for a hearing next Monday. Meanwhile, just 20% of Americans polled say they are “very confident” the Service can do its most important job.
U. S. Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump is surrounded by U.S. Secret Service agents in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024.
Did Saturday’s shooting make Trump unstoppable?
A picture may be worth a thousand votes – or more. The image of Republican nominee Donald Trump’s blood-streaked face, fist raised defiantly beneath a giant American flag,may help him win the election. A young man, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, took aim from a rooftop near a Trump rally in Butler, PA, on Saturday, firing multiple shots before being “neutralized.” He hit the former president’s right ear, killing one spectator and injuring another two. Questions are being raised as to how an armed Crooks could have gotten so close to Trump.
Trump’s vigorous response, meanwhile, hasenergized his base and further highlighted the contrast between him and the more frail President Joe Biden.
According to William Hill, a UK-based betting company, Trump's odds of winning rose from 8/15 (65.2%) before the shooting to 4/11 (73.3%) after it. And in financial markets, trades betting on his victory arepredicted to increase this coming week.
But the shooting could also herald more political violence and social instability, according to Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer. “This is the kind of thing we have seen historically in lots of countries facing instability and frequently does not end well.”
Already, Ohio Sen. and Trump VP hopeful JD Vance hasblamed Biden for the attack.
“The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” Vance posted on X. “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination.”
Biden, for his part, addressed the nation on Sunday to condemn the shooting, and his campaign has ceased its negative campaigns. “No matter how strong our convictions, we must never descend to violence,” he said.
What will this mean for campaign security?
Expect it to be stepped up. Reps. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and Mike Lawler (R-NY) announced Saturday thatthey would introduce bipartisan legislation providing Trump, President Joe Biden, and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. with enhanced Secret Service protection. RNC convention security plans are also being re-examined.
An investigation is already underway. The Secret Service will be asked to explain how the shooter got so close to Trump – and investigators will establish the order of events, determining how the shooter gained access to the roof and whether rallygoers’ warnings about seeing a man with a gun went unheeded. Director Kimberly Cheatlehas been summoned to testify before a committee of the US House of Representatives on July 22. Meanwhile, the Secret Service has denied claims that it rebuffed requests from Trump’s team for heavier security in recent weeks.
A private security force?
With mistrust of the Secret Service running high in Republican circles, could they push for Trump to re-establish his own private security force? Possibly, and there is precedent.
Trump retained private security during his 2016 campaign when he was not eligible for Secret Service protection. After his election, he continued to engage his long-time head of security, retired New York City police officer and Navy veteran Keith Schiller, as a private bodyguard, which broke protocol and sparked some controversy. Schiller left the White House in October 2017, but his security company,KS Global Group LLC, was subsequently hired by the Republican National Committee to consult on security at the RNC’s 2020 convention.
To read more about what happened and what’s likely to come next, click here. Watch Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take here for his insights about the assassination attempt. And be sure to look back at two notable examples in history when a sitting or former US president survived being hit by an assassin’s bullet here.
What the France and UK elections mean for the West
Major Western democracies like France, the UK, Canada, and the US are on the verge of sweeping political change, but how will upcoming elections impact our collective ability to deal with the world’s biggest challenges? How will Western allies approach issues like climate change, the AI revolution, and cyber defense in an increasingly fractured world? Mark Carney, former Governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World for a hard look at three of America’s closest allies: France, Britain, and Canada.
“We're operating in a world where security is paramount. You need resilience,” Carney tells Bremmer, “You need to look to those countries where you have common values and you need to reinforce them.”
Carney and Bremmer also delve into the strategic importance of the US-Canada relationship and how our neighbor to the north can be a reliable, strategic partner in many critical areas, including national security and climate transition. He warns Canadians and Americans shouldn’t “hit the snooze button” when it comes to strengthening US-Canada ties and stresses that Canada can be a critical partner in providing lean energy, crucial minerals, and AI expertise. As for Carney’s rumored political future as a potential Liberal Party leader? Well, you’ll just have to watch the interview to find out.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, candidate for the Presidency of Mexico by Sigamos Haciendo Historia coalition shows a electoral ballot before casting their vote at a polling booth during the 2024 Mexico s general election on June 2, 2024,
Mexico elects first woman president — will she bring change?
Claudia Sheinbaum made history on Sunday, with preliminary results showing she won roughly 60% of the vote to become the first woman elected Mexico’s president. Her victory was never really in doubt, given the support she enjoyed from outgoing and immensely popular President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador. But that same popularity means it will be hard for Mexico’s first female president to emerge from her predecessor’s shadow.
Mexican presidents are limited to a single six-year term, but AMLO has pitched Sheinbaum as his loyal successor. He’s promised she will carry on the work of what he calls Mexico’s populist “Fourth Transformation” (the first three being Mexican Independence in 1821, the civil war of 1858-1861, and the revolution 1910-1917).
Her vote more than doubled the runner-up’s, and her party took 251 seats in the lower house and 60 in the Senate, which should give her so-called “qualified” majorities in both houses alongside coalition partners. In other words, she can change the constitution, and perhaps enact some of the controversial changes AMLO failed to implement.
When the fiesta dies down at Morena headquarters, Sheinbaum will face demands from voters to tackle cartel violence, the country’s historically high murder rate, and immigration – problems she has slim chances of resolving. On the latter issue, she’s at the mercy of Washington, as folks crossing her southern border with Guatemala are trying to get to the United States, not stay in Mexico. She won’t have a clear picture of the policy environment she can act within until the gringos vote in November.
And she’ll need to break away from AMLO’s “hugs not bullets” policy, which has utterly failed to protect Mexicans, especially women and girls, from the predations of drug traffickers. The trick will be doing so without implicitly criticizing her former boss.
“The challenge is to follow Lopez Obrador, manage an extremely challenging security situation, ensure macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound and potentially deal with Trump,” said Eurasia Group analyst Daniel Kerner, who was at Sheinbaum HQ on Sunday. “And if she tries to do the constitutional reforms, economic and social stability will suffer.”
Members of the Indian Navy on board the vessel INS Kadmatt (F29) (L) and INS Satpura (F48) arrive for a four-day goodwill visit which aims to strengthen ties between India and the Philippines, at the Pier 15 in Port Are, metro Manila, Philippines October 3, 2017.
India sends ships to South China Sea as it builds naval strength
When Indian warships steamed into Manila Harbor on Monday, they sent a message to Beijing. With its land borders cut off by archrival Pakistan, wartorn Myanmar, and an increasingly hostile Beijing, New Delhi is committed to becoming a world-class naval power. The port call in the Philippines followed similar stops in Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia as India attempts to build stronger bonds with Southeast Asian partners, many of whom share anxieties about China’s territorial ambitions.
New Delhi has a long way to go. The Indian fleet is only around a third the size of China’s (the world’s largest by number of vessels), but it has over five dozen ships under construction. By 2050, New Delhi hopes to have 200 ships afloat, ideally built at home — a plan that looks all the more feasible given India’s recent economic growth.
And a navy will be key to maintaining those high, export-driven growth rates by keeping the seas safe for Indian traffic. In just the last nine months, the Indian Navy has come to the aid of four ships that were attacked while transiting the Red Sea. We’re watching how a more capable India throws its weight around on the high seas, and how China responds.“Keep the nuclear codes away from that robot”
The United States has issued a warning to two fellow nuclear powers, in so many words telling China and Russia, “Keep your nuclear weapons firmly in human control.”
In a May 2 press briefing, US State Department official Paul Dean said that the government has explicitly told France and the United Kingdom that the decision to deploy nuclear weapons must stay out of reach of autonomous artificial intelligence systems — and said it welcomes China and Russia to make the same pronouncement.
Global powers are racing to level-up their military capabilities with cutting-edge artificial intelligence. The US military recently tested an autonomously controlled X-62A jet in a dogfight simulation, which it called a success; and AI has been used on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, the US is trying to cut off China from powerful computer chips needed to run AI systems using stringent export controls, while giving grants to chipmakers willing to expand operations in America.
The State Department’s pronouncement sounds alarming, but the nuclear powers may, in fact, be on the same page, even if their diplomatic interests are more entrenched and complicated.
Alex Brideau, Eurasia Group’s practice head for Eurasia, says he doesn’t believe the US was accusing China or Russia of pursuing AI use in their nuclear command and control controls; rather, Washington is seeking public assurance on the matter. Still, since the US-Russia diplomatic relationship has been strained by the war in Ukraine, Russia might revel in the ambiguity.
“That’s not necessarily because Russia intends to explore the use of AI this way,” Brideau says. “Instead, Moscow might want to add it to the broader set of security issues, nuclear and non-nuclear, that it wants Washington to negotiate over.”
Rick Waters and Jeremy Chan, from Eurasia Group’s China practice, said they think China is on the same page as the US regarding this norm. Chan pointed out that Zhang Jun, who until recently served as China’s permanent representative to the UN, made two important points in a UN speech in March: (1) “nuclear weapons must never be used and a nuclear war never fought,” and (2) “countries should continue to enhance the safety, reliability, and controllability of AI technology and ensure that relevant weapon systems are under human control at all times.”
China may issue an explicit statement after the upcoming US-China dialogue, expected in the coming weeks. That said, Chan thinks Beijing may be reluctant to do so given other unresolved disagreements with the US over nuclear doctrine — “namely the US refusal to commit to a no-first-use policy and reduce its nuclear stockpile.”
The US is simply trying to avoid a classic sci-fi scenario: What algorithm can doom civilization without humanity’s involvement? Surely, that’s the quickest path to annihilation. Luckily, it sounds like its adversaries are already on the same page.
A club for hemming China in
On Monday — the day that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters that Canada is interested in joining the AUKUS defense alliance — documents were released at a public inquiry that showed that Canada’s intelligence agency believes China “clandestinely and deceptively interfered in both the 2019 and 2021 general elections.”
Also on Monday, as Chinese ships carried out exercises in disputed waters in the South China Sea, the US, UK, and Australia announced that they were talking to Japan about inviting that country to participate in Pillar II of the security pact.
China’s growing military and political belligerence is rattling other countries, and they are responding by drawing together in a way that would have been out of the question a decade ago.
Neighbors under pressure
Pillar I of AUKUS, which was announced in 2021, is a collaboration between Australia, the Americans, and the Brits aimed at adding a powerful new capacity to Australia’s military: nuclear-powered (though conventionally armed) submarines. This is a huge spend for Australia — $368 billion over 30 years — that carries an inherent political risk. And to make the deal, Canberra had to blow up relations with France by abandoning a deal to buy French subs. The Aussies only did that after a year of tense political and economic confrontations with China that left decision-makers in that country gravely concerned about its future in a neighborhood dominated by Beijing. Australia’s back was against the wall.
Like Australia, Japan is being driven to closer cooperation with the United States by its concerns about an increasingly powerful and assertive China. Japan’s trade-focused economy depends on international shipping passing freely through the South China Sea, for instance, where China has been clashing with the Philippines.
So Tokyo has reason to be interested in Pillar II of the AUKUS arrangement, which focuses on defense technology sharing, including quantum computing, hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, and electronic warfare — all areas where China presents a technological challenge, and where Japan could offer expertise.
With China rapidly expanding its military, Japan has decided to break with its post-war pacifist tradition and dramatically increase defense spending.
Northern lightweights
Canada is also opening its checkbook, but at a much smaller scale, which would explain why the AUKUS partners are making a point of talking about doing business with Japan, rather than Canada.
Nobody is talking about adding other countries as full members, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Tuesday, but proceeding on a project-by-project basis.
Historically, Canada spends little on defense, falling well short of the 2% of GDP that NATO members have all agreed to spend. In an increasingly dangerous world, though, pressure is mounting for Canada to step up, and on Monday, Trudueau’s government did roll out a five-year plan to bring defense spending up to 1.76% of GDP by 2030, up from 1.38% last year.
Allies welcomed the announcement, but there was nothing significant enough to make Canada a much more desirable partner for AUKUS, says Eugene Lang, a former Liberal defense official turned Queens University professor. Officials are interested.
“I just don’t know that we're doing anything to get their attention,” he says. “What they're doing in AUKUS is investing in developing brand-new technologies. To my knowledge, Canada has not got any specific money set aside for any of that.”
University of Ottawa Professor Thomas Juneau, who has interviewed allied officials about Canada’s potential role in AUKUS, found that Canada is increasingly seen as a free rider in defense and intelligence circles. It’s not surprising that Japan was invited before Canada, he says.
“It's really normal for AUKUS to bring in Japan before Canada because Japan is not only a much bigger country than we are, but it's right next to China.”
Wolf warriors
On the other hand, because of its Five Eyes intelligence-sharing experience, Canada could more easily cooperate with AUKUS than Japan, says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group.
And while it may not be spending enough money to be taken seriously, the Trudeau government has moved to be more circumspect in its relationship with China, limiting Chinese investment in critical minerals and being cautious about research projects.
“The scales have fallen from a lot of politicians’ eyes in the West,” Thompson says. “The question remains, how do you have constructive diplomatic and economic relations with Beijing, while at the same time competing with them geopolitically and seeking to build up and maintain deterrence?”
China will object to the new alliances being organized around it, but don’t expect Beijing to stop buying sabers and rattling them.
“China has a rising economy, so the idea that its rising economic power wouldn't come with rising geopolitical ambition is a fantasy, and we've kind of believed in that fantasy for a while, not just in Canada but in other Western countries,” says Juneau.
“But it was a fantasy all along.”
File Photo: The South Korea and U.S. alliance fired eight combined surface-to-surface missiles ATACMS into the East Sea in response to North Korea multiple ballistic missile (SRBM) provocation from around 4:45 p.m on June 6, 2022.
Did the Ukrainians just use ATACMS?
Ukrainian officials have pleaded with Washington for months to provide its military with so-called Army Tactical Missile Systems, widely known as ATACMS, to hit important Russian targets deep behind enemy lines. It appears the US has now sent a small number of these missiles – and Ukraine claims that it used them on the battlefield on Tuesday to big effect. Its Special Operations Forces say they destroyed nine Russian helicopters, an air defense launcher, and an ammunition depot, with multiple Russian casualties.
Were the weapons they used the sought-after ATACMS? Ukraine isn’t saying, though President Volodymyr Zelensky dropped some not-so-subtle hints following the strike. “I thank those who are destroying at scale the logistics and bases of the occupiers of our land. We have results,” Zelensky said Tuesday. “I thank certain partners of ours: effective weapons, just as we agreed.”
Zelensky has every reason to talk up Ukrainian successes. The counteroffensive has so far fallen well short of the hopes and expectations of allies. The crisis in Israel has distracted the US and Europe and may require military resources that might have gone to Ukraine. Some hard-right Republicans in the US have called for a halt to US help for Kyiv.
It’s also likely that the missiles used in this case were an older version of ATACMS that lack the range of the more modern weapons Ukraine is still hoping for. Most targets inside Crimea, for example, remain out of reach for now.
But this attack reminds us that Washington remains Ukraine’s ally, Ukraine’s military remains a potent fighting force, and much still happens behind the scenes that we become aware of only when something large explodes.