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Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko speaks during a news conference in Dakar.
Senegalese opposition leader sentenced, 2024 bid in peril
On Thursday, at least nine people were killed in Senegal in violence that erupted after opposition leader Ousmane Sonko was sentenced in absentia to two years in jail for "corrupting youth" by encouraging the debauchery of an underage massage parlor employee – whom he was simultaneously acquitted of raping and issuing death threats against. This is a very big deal since it might bar Sonko from running for president of the West African nation in February 2024, and it’s unclear whether he can appeal.
Sonko, a popular former tax inspector and mayor, is being held in contempt of court after he ghosted the trial out of fear for his security. Under Senegalese law, that means the opposition leader — whose whereabouts are unknown — can’t appeal, although he can get a retrial ... if he's arrested or turns himself in. What's more, Sonko is contesting a separate six-month suspended prison sentence for defaming the minister of tourism, whom he accused of embezzlement.
For weeks, Sonko's diehard fans have been protesting the trial in Dakar, the capital, because they say he’s being unfairly targeted by his nemesis, President Macky Sall. Expect trouble if Sonko gets disqualified from the presidential race, especially if Sall falls for Africa’s third-term curse: running again despite being constitutionally limited to two terms in office.
"Significant unrest is likely given the fervor of Sonko's supporters," says Eurasia Group analyst Jeanne Ramier. "But it won't be as serious as the violence that followed his indictment in March 2021 — the police are now ready for such large demonstrations and religious leaders will intervene to stop any bloodshed."Supporters of Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko gather during a protest to support its leader, Ousmane Sonko in Dakar, Senegal March 14, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Senegalese protests, Wifi in the Amazon, Sri Lankan strikes, Ukraine’s day in court
5,000: About 5,000 supporters of Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko are protesting against the government of two-term President Macky Sall, who they say is cracking down on civil society and targeting Sonko with cooked-up lawsuits. Sonko, who aims to run for president in 2024, is facing trials for libel and rape.
7: To be an illegal miner deep in the Amazon, you need diggers, guns, gumption, and evidently … good wifi. Amid a broader crackdown on these lawless wildcatters, Brazilian feds have seized 7 of Elon Musk’s Starlink portable internet terminals, which were set up at covert mining sites. The swoop comes as Amazon deforestation reached a new monthly high in February.
40: More than 40 Sri Lankan unions are striking to protest the country’s all-but-signed IMF loan deal, crippling the country’s ports, rail stations, airports, and schools. While the government sees the bailout as an essential lifeline to end the country's worst-ever economic crisis, the unions are furious about the tax-hikes that are part of the package.
3bn: Ukraine and Russia are going to court! In 2013, just before protests toppled the Russian-backed president of Ukraine, Kyiv got a $3 billion loan from Moscow. The Kremlin did it to keep Ukraine from slipping further into Europe’s orbit, but the subsequent pro-Western Ukrainian government saw it as a Russian financial albatross imposed under duress and refused to pay it back. Russia sued, and a UK court on Wednesday ruled that Ukraine has a case – so now it will go to trial.
Lula’s comeback upends Brazilian politics; Senegal's dicey situation
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week:
We'll start in Brazil. Will Lula run for president and seriously challenge Bolsonaro?
And the answer is, it increasingly looks that way. The Supreme Court threw out former President Lula's former conviction, saying they didn't have jurisdiction. And the court that he was actually charged, court members were surprised by this. Lula's own PT party surprised by this. It means a couple of things. One, he's much more likely to run. He's extremely popular on the left. His PT party has about 20% approval in the country. And that means that between Bolsonaro, the president, and Lula on the left, there's very little room in the center. This is going to be an incredibly contentious and polarized election, much more so than in the United States, even this past November.
What is happening in Senegal?
Well, it's one of the more democratic countries in Africa and in West Africa. And you have a former presidential candidate who didn't do very well, but nonetheless, young guy, quite popular, particularly on anti-corruption issues. This guy, Ousmane Sonko, he's all of in his 40s right now and he has been arrested for and charged with rape. I have literally no idea the merit of the charges, but what we know is that previously around presidential elections and opposition candidates, they've often found trumped up charges to get rid of them in contestation of the sitting president. That together with the fact there is a lot of corruption in Senegal right now and the economy's not doing so well, led to big demonstrations and a number of people, it looks like eight so far, that have been killed and that has the potential. He's been released. But this is a dicey situation. Senegal could be in a lot of trouble going forward.
And did I watch the Harry and Meghan interview?
No, no, I did not. Why? Because it's the Royals and because I don't care about the Royals. The Royals are basically a tourist mechanism in the United Kingdom and that's fine. There's nothing wrong with having something that attracts some money and some eyeballs. But we have that in the United States. It's called Disneyland. And I don't watch interviews with Mickey Mouse, either. So, it's okay. Some people will be annoyed that this is my position, but it is my position. I don't care about the Royals, I don't really want to talk about them and we'll move on to other geopolitical issues that matter next week.
What We're Watching: "Apocalyptic" unrest in Senegal, Biden's Afghanistan plan, post-COVID tourism
"Apocalyptic" protests in Senegal: At least five people have been killed in clashes with police as protests over poverty, unemployment, and the jailing of a popular politician rock the West African nation of Senegal. Ousmane Sonko, who heads the opposition Movement to Defend Democracy (M2D) and is considered the most viable challenger to current president Mackie Sall, was accused of rape in February and arrested last week. Sonko says the charges are a politically motivated attempt to remove him from politics before the 2024 presidential election. His supporters immediately hit the streets, voicing a range of grievances including joblessness and poverty. Though youth unemployment has fallen over the past decade, it still exceeds eight percent and close to two-thirds of the country's 16 million people are under the age of 25. As Sonko supporters pledge to continue protests this week, Senegal's head of conflict resolution says the country is "on the verge of apocalypse."
Biden's Afghanistan roadmap: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken wants to speed up peace negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government, according to a new memo. In a letter addressed to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Blinken proposed a peace summit in Turkey to finalize details of a plan under which new elections would follow the installation of a transitional government. The missive comes just weeks after intra-Afghan peace talks resumed in Qatar after a hiatus. The Biden administration is still playing coy on whether it plans to honor a Trump administration commitment to withdraw all remaining US troops in Afghanistan by May 1. Blinken has not ruled out a full troop drawdown by that date (2,500 US troops are still in the country nearly 20 years after the US first invaded), but skeptics warn that a hasty withdrawal before all details have been ironed out — including protections for women and minority groups — could lay the groundwork for a violent Taliban takeover.
Tourism post COVID: The pandemic has clobbered the global tourism industry, inflicting a crippling blow on many economies that rely heavily on outside visitors to stay afloat. But as tourist hotspots look ahead to life after all the testing and social distancing requirements of COVID, some overcrowded destinations are starting to think about ways that post-pandemic tourism can be more sustainable, less disruptive to everyday life, and healthier for the whole economy. Part of that, as the US island paradise of Hawaii has found, is about better-controlling the flow of tourists to specific destinations, but it's also about crafting a tourism strategy that is as responsive to the needs of locals as it is to the needs of visitors (about two-thirds of Hawaiians now say they don't want tourists to return, according to a recent poll). As economies around the world look to bounce back after the worst year in decades, tourist destinations will have hard decisions to make.