Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden poses with Federated States of Micronesia's President David Panuelo, Fiji's Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape and other leaders from the U.S.- Pacific Island Country Summit (not pictured), at the White House in Washington, U.S. September 29, 2022.
Biden piles on the charm in the South Pacific
Leaders of over 20 Pacific Island nations will arrive in Washington on Monday for a two-day US-Pacific Island Forum Summit, the second such gathering in two years.
While the meeting officially focuses on climate change, economic growth, and sustainable development, China’s growing clout in the region also looms large. The United States has been accused of abandoning the South Pacific since the end of the Cold War, creating a vacuum that China has aptly filled. As of 2021, Chinese trade with the region stood at $5.3 billion, up from just $153 million in 1992. China has built infrastructure and lent money to a number of Pacific nations, including to the small archipelago of Tonga, now in debt $286 million to China for a series of rebuilding projects.
But nowhere has China’s influence campaign been more successful than in the Solomon Islands. In April 2022 its President, Manesseh Sogavare, signed the first South Pacific security pact with China, authorizing Chinese navy ships to make routine port visits to the Solomons. In July 2023 Sogavare paid a state visit to Beijing, inking a two-year plan for police cooperation. Back home, Sogavare stands accused of using Chinese funds to buy political support and silence dissent; he will be notably absent at this week’s gathering in Washington.
In response, Biden is reopening the American embassy in the Solomons and also plans to establish diplomatic relations with the Cook Islands and Niue.
Why play tug-of-war over these small nations? Diplomatically, every South Pacific nation has an equal vote in forums like the United Nations. China has already convinced several to drop their recognition of Taiwan in favor of Beijing. Economically, they control access to fishing and seabed minerals over a vast territory. Militarily, they are strategically positioned and could be crucial launching pads in any future conflict over Taiwan. Micronesia, for example, lies within striking distance of the American military base in Guam.
But it’s not just the big powers who are jostling for power in the region: India, Indonesia and South Korea are also seeking influence to maintain access to global shipping channels.
US-China competition expands to the Pacific Islands
Alarmed by China’s progress in extending its influence among a series of strategically located islands in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, this week President Joe Biden is hosting the first-ever US-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington, DC. The White House has invited the leaders of 12 Pacific nations to discuss climate change, economic cooperation, and security ties. We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford to explain the importance of the event.
Why hold the summit now?
After taking office in early 2021, the Biden administration initially focused its Indo-Pacific diplomatic efforts on longstanding allies Japan and South Korea, as well as on wooing India and strengthening the Quad, a grouping of the US, Japan, India, and Australia. In the second half of the year, it ramped up its engagement with Southeast Asia.
Now it is turning its focus to the Pacific Islands, partly in response to increased Chinese assertiveness in the region and the warnings of a concerned Australia, a key US ally.
One recent development that set off alarm bells was a security pact between China and the Solomon Islands that entails broad police and military cooperation. Beijing this year also tried, unsuccessfully, to form a regional economic and security pact with ten Pacific countries.
Some Pacific countries say America has neglected them for a long time – is that true?
Broadly, yes. At the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in July, Vice President Kamala Harris took an important step toward healing wounded feelings. Speaking over a video link, she said: “We recognize that in recent years, the Pacific Islands may not have received the diplomatic attention and support that you deserve. So today I am here to tell you directly: We are going to change that.”
What do Pacific countries want from the US, and what is the US willing to offer them?
First and foremost, these countries want the US to show up and engage with them. To that end, the US is reopening its embassy in the Solomon Islands and plans to establish two new missions in the region, in Tonga and Kiribati; Washington will also, for the first time, appoint a US envoy to the Pacific Islands Forum.
Beyond that, Pacific countries want help mitigating the effects of climate change. Several nations lie just a few meters above sea level. Fiji Defense Minister Inia Seruiratu said at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June: "In our Blue Pacific continent, machine guns, fighter jets, gray ships, and green battalions are not our primary security concern. The single greatest threat to our very existence is climate change."
In July, Harris said that US assistance to the region — to help strengthen climate resilience, improve marine planning and conversation, address illegal fishing, and enhance maritime security — would be tripled to $60 million per year for the next decade, subject to approval by Congress. The US Agency for International Development also plans to re-establish a regional mission in Suva, Fiji.
Why has China been expanding its own engagement with the region?
The Pacific Islands are composed of many small nations, each with a vote at the UN, providing an attractive opportunity for China to expand its international support.
Beijing is also seeking to further constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space, given that the Pacific Islands are home to four of the remaining 14 nations that formally recognize Taiwan. China has already convinced several Pacific countries to switch their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, most recently the Solomon Islands and Kiribati in 2019. That said, Taiwan’s four remaining allies — the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Palau, and Nauru — say they are standing firm.
The Pacific Islands region is also an important part of China’s goal to project naval power further afield by finding new friendly nations to offer safe harbor to Chinese military vessels.
Why does this outreach concern the US?
Beijing’s increasing engagement in the Pacific Islands poses a number of implications for US military interests, including the potential encirclement of allies Australia and New Zealand.
In addition, as China increases its economic engagement, including through the Belt and Road Initiative, Pacific Island countries may feel more beholden to Beijing and side with it at international fora. Washington is also concerned that China’s growing influence could weaken democracy and governance in the region.
Who is winning the scramble for the Pacific?
Until recently, it seemed China had the upper hand, with much more intense diplomatic and economic engagement. But Beijing has suffered several setbacks recently, such as the failure of the new economic and security pact, and rising apprehension over involvement in BRI projects worldwide.
Meanwhile, the US is re-engaging, and its support for regional identities strikes a chord in the region. Similarly, Australia has scored some success in its efforts to convince Pacific Island countries not to use the equipment of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.
The challenge for the US, though, is to sustain engagement with a far-flung region at a time when it has many priorities to juggle, several of which are more pressing. China will always be able to devote more financial resources and deploy senior visitors to the region more often than the US can. Yet the US’s network of alliances and partnerships can compensate for this disadvantage. Especially important is the role played by Australia, which is by far the largest aid donor to the Pacific Islands, the Quad grouping, and the recently launched US-led Partners in the Blue Pacific initiative, which includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the UK as well as other observer countries.
This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
A supporter of Colombian presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernandez in Bogota.
What We’re Watching: Colombia’s “anti” runoff, Pacific meh on China, Sudan ends emergency
It’s anti vs. anti in Colombia presidential runoff
Colombians wanted change? Well, now they’ll have no choice! In the first round of the country’s presidential election on Sunday, the top two finishers were leftist opposition leader Gustavo Petro (40%) and Rodolfo Hernández (28%), an independent populist tycoon who surged late in the campaign with an anti-corruption message. The two will head to a runoff on June 19. Both promise a radical reorientation of the Andean country at a time of high inequality, rising violence, and simmering social tensions. For Petro, the answer lies in super-taxing the rich, massively expanding the social safety net, and decarbonizing the economy. Hernández, meanwhile, wants to slash taxes, shrink the state bureaucracy, and even legalize cocaine. We’ll have more to say ahead of the runoff, but for now: has the election of any other major economy in recent memory featured a presidential runoff between TWO stridently anti-establishment figures like this?
We don't need you, Pacific countries tell China
In a stunning rebuke, eight Pacific countries spoiled China's big (virtual) summit for the region by turning down — for now — a wide-ranging partnership proposal with Beijing that Western powers view as a Trojan horse. "The Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focused on power," Fiji's PM Frank Bainimarama tweeted Monday after meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Yi has been on a whirlwind tour of the region to rally support for Xi Jinping’s vision for the region. But his trip started on the wrong foot when Fiji signed up Friday for the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Washington's latest answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The double snub was welcomed by Australia, who's the most worried about Beijing gaining influence in the neighborhood. Still, China has already scored an important goal by signing a controversial security deal with the Solomon Islands — and is negotiating a similar agreement with Kiribati. Wang tried to allay fears, urging Pacific island countries to not be "too anxious" to pass on Beijing’s offer. So we expect the geopolitical point-scoring between China and the West to continue.
Sudan lifts post-coup state of emergency
Finally, some good news from Sudan. Hours after lifting a seven-month state of emergency (in place since the October 2021 coup) on Sunday, authorities began releasing some jailed protesters. For months, the country has been rocked by massive street protests that have killed almost 100 people — many of them shot by security forces — as the calls to scrap the decree had reached a fever pitch. Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says that ending the emergency will create good vibes for a "fruitful and meaningful dialogue that achieves stability during the transitional period," which means he’s ready to talk to the civilian wing of the cabinet. Why the change of heart? Simply put, money. Sudan needs to return to civilian rule in order to get Western aid and debt relief to help its economy, which has gone from bad to worse with the generals in charge and is now on the brink of collapse. But don't get too excited: al-Burhan now must convince the same civilian leaders his soldiers removed in the coup that he’s now serious about handing over power.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Officials from the Solomon Islands and China attend a signing ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in 2019.
What We're Watching: China's Pacific strategy, Ukraine food corridor negotiations, Turkey and Israel getting closer
China doubles down on Pacific strategy
Barely a month after inking a controversial security agreement with the Solomon Islands, China's top diplomat on Thursday kicks off a whistle-stop Pacific tour to a whopping eight countries in just 10 days. Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly aims to get them to join a China-led regional security and cooperation framework that Western countries fear will allow Beijing to gain a military foothold in a region long-neglected by the US and its allies. The Chinese, for their part, insist no such deal has been offered and that the countries Wang plans to visit are just "good friends." But Australia and New Zealand aren’t buying it: the Aussies have dispatched their newly minted foreign minister to Fiji in the first stop of a roadshow to counter China in the Pacific, while the Kiwis have announced plans to extend their troop deployment in the Solomon Islands for another year. What's more, both Australia and New Zealand — along with the US — are worried about China's plans for the mega-remote island nation of Kiribati, which has few inhabitants, vast territorial waters, huge strategic value … and switched recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019.
Russia offers food help – for a price
As the war in Ukraine pitches the world closer to a global food crisis, Russia says it’s ready to help establish UN-brokered food export corridors from Ukrainian ports — but there’s a catch. In exchange, Moscow wants the US and EU to lift sanctions that they’ve imposed on Russia over Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Moscow’s demand puts the rest of the world in a tricky position. There are currently millions of tons of grain and oilseeds trapped in Ukraine because of Russian naval blockades and mines that each side accuses the other of planting. The UN is warning that high food prices and shortages caused by the conflict could push as many as 1.7 billion people into poverty and hunger this year. But any attempt to establish a corridor requires either Kremlin support or Western warships to accompany Ukrainian export vessels, risking direct conflict with Russia. Is it worth it to relax the pressure on Russia to help feed the world? No easy answers here. In the meantime, Russia says it’s restored operations at the shallow-water port of Mariupol, which Russia took control of last week. The larger deep-water port of Odesa, however, remains under Ukrainian control and a Russian blockade.
Do Israel and Turkey want to be friends?
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu met with his Israeli counterpart Yair Lapid in Jerusalem on Wednesday, marking the first visit of a high-ranking Turkish official to Israel in 15 years. It is the latest sign of an attempted detente between the two Middle East powers, which have been locked in a longtime row over a range of issues – including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Turkey’s support for Hamas in the Gaza Strip – that has deepened during President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s tenure. Çavuşoğlu said that Ankara wants to take a central role in mediation efforts between the Israelis and Palestinians, and he renewed calls for a two-state solution. The meeting is a big deal considering that both countries withdrew their respective ambassadors in 2018 and have yet to replace them. Expanding bilateral economic cooperation, which has already increased significantly over the past year, is at the heart of the diplomatic reboot. (Turkey, for its part, is keen to cooperate on a gas pipeline to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, though Israel is reportedly less gung-ho.) This is the latest example of Erdoğan trying to patch things up with regional rivals to create new economic opportunities that might boost his country’s ailing economy.Solomon Islands to pursue ban on Facebook after government criticism on platform: Media
If the ban goes ahead, the Solomons would join only a handful of countries around the world, including China, that actively restrict Facebook.
Solomon Islands records first Covid-19 case
SYDNEY - Solomon Islands recorded its first ever Covid-19 case, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare announced on Saturday (Oct 3).
Australian, British aid workers killed in blast in Solomon Islands
SYDNEY (REUTERS) - Two men from Australia and Britain who worked for an aid agency that helps to dispose of unexploded bombs were killed in a blast in Solomon Islands, their employer said on Monday (Sept 21).