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Sudan Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan arrives to offer condolences to the families of an officer and a journalist, who were killed during a battle with Rapid Support Forces at the presidential palace in Khartoum, Sudan, on March 21, 2025.
Could the Sudan crisis tip South Sudan into civil war?
But while Sudan’s government makes gains, the coalition government in South Sudan has been destabilized following last week’s collapse of a peace deal between the main parties of President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. On Thursday, Kiir dismissed the governor of Upper Nile state – a member of Machar’s party - where government forces are now battling the Nuer White Army militia, whom they accuse of being aligned with Machar, a charge he denies.
South Sudan has been hampered by political instability and violence since becoming independent in 2011. It is also likely that the SAF and RSF are supporting opposing sides in the current conflict. The rivalry between Kiir and Machar has further been compounded by a mass exodus of over 800,000 refugees last year into South Sudan, straining the country’s limited resources.
What could be next? While the SAF has made gains in Khartoum, the RSF maintains its stronghold in regions like Darfur, leading to concerns of a de facto partition of Sudan. In South Sudan, the deteriorating relationship between Kiir and Machar threatens to plunge the nation back into full-scale civil war, leading Western nations to close their embassies amid fears of escalating violence.
South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, left, and Riek Machar, shake hands after a meeting in which they reached a deal to form a long-delayed unity government in Juba, South Sudan back in December 2019. How times have changed.
South Sudan on brink of civil war as senior officials’ arrests inflame ethnic tensions
Both Machar and Chol are members of the Nuer ethnic group, the country’s second-largest demographic after the majority Dinka. The crackdown by President Salva Kiir – an ethnic Dinka whose long-standing rivalry with Machar exploded into conflict in the past – came one day after the White Army, a loosely organized militia made up of members of the vice president’s Nuer minority, seized control over Nasir, a major town in South Sudan’s northeasternmost Upper Nile State, from the country’s military. Machar supported the White Army during the war.
As part of the 2018 peace deal that ended the civil war, Kiir and Machar agreed to unify disparate ethnic militias into one national army in 2022. But negotiations stalled last year.
In early February, Kiir’s government unilaterally sacked Machar’s allies, including the health minister, without consulting the vice president as required under the peace pact. Days later, national troops loyal to Kiir attacked civilians in a crowded market in Nasir during a meeting with the local United Nations mission.
In response to what was just the latest example of UN-documented abuses of civilians by the military, armed youths killed at least four soldiers. A week later, the military launched airstrikes on positions held by militants loyal to Machar.
Dashed hopes? The latest escalation comes just two months after South Sudan’s oil production began again, bringing much-needed revenues to one of the world’s poorest countries.
Former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov talk in December 2023. Both men now face ICC warrants for alleged war crimes.
Hard Numbers: ICC issues Russian warrants, Antelopes move en masse, Medical evacuations needed from Gaza, Vietnam’s expensive bean, Targeting gun violence, 'Squad' member ousted
2: The ICC on Tuesday issued arrest warrants for two key Russian military officials, former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The men stand accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity for their alleged involvement in strikes against Ukraine. Russia responded to the charges, calling them “null and void” – and, like Vladimir Putin, neither is expected to make the trip to The Hague anytime soon.
6 million: South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, is now home to the world’s largest mammal migration, with a new aerial wildlife survey showing roughly six million antelopes on the move. While the country is struggling amid a devastating civil war, the antelopes have become a source of national pride, and President Salvador Kiri Mayardit hopes totransform the “wildlife sector into a sustainable tourism industry.”
2,000: The World Health Organization says the closure of the Rafah crossing on the Gaza-Egypt border means at least 2,000 patients in need of medical evacuation have been left stranded. The crossing, closed amid Israel’s military operation in Rafah last month, is crucial for humanitarian aid distribution and evacuations, and its reopening is a point of concern in talks between US, Egyptian, and Qatari officials.
16: Will the price of espresso soon jolt you awake more than the coffee? Vietnam, the world’s second-biggest coffee producer, isexperiencing one of its worst droughts in years, which is expected to cause up to a 16% drop in coffee bean production. But so far, coffee bean inflation is hovering around just 1.6% in the EU – so no jitters yet. Vietnamese farmers are enjoying the price surge and are optimistic that new farming practices can help manage the heat wave.
30: US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy issued an advisory on Tuesdaydeclaring gun violence a public health crisis because the growing number of suicides and homicides caused gun-related deaths to reach a 30-year high in 2021. Murthy referred to the devastating mental and physical toll that gun violence has had on US communities and called for stricter gun regulation and the banning of automatic rifles.
14.5 million: Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman on Tuesday was defeated in the most expensive House primary in US history. Bowman, a progressive and member of the "Squad," lost to moderate George Latimer in New York's 16th Congressional District in a race that put a spotlight on the Democratic party's deep divisions over Israel and the war in Gaza. Bowman has been a fierce critic of Israel and has faced allegations of antisemitism in the process. AIPAC, a pro-Israel lobbying group, spent roughly $14.5 million on ads — via its PAC, United Democracy Project — in an effort to unseat Bowman.
Women and children wait for food distribution from the United Nations World Food Programme in Thonyor, Leer state, South Sudan, back in 2017.
South Sudan customs dispute taxes a long-suffering population
Even as three-quarters of South Sudan’s people face starvation, a squabble between the government and the UN over import taxes is leaving vital aid trucks stuck at the border.
The background: South Sudan’s trade ministry ordered this week that all goods trucks entering the East African country must pay a $300 tax. The measure was meant to ensure that the government got its share of revenue from imports that are often underbilled or misrepresented. There was supposed to be a carveout for UN aid vehicles, but if so, officials at the Ugandan border didn’t get the memo – at least not yet.
The bigger background: South Sudan is one of the world’s newest countries – and one of its poorest. After coming into existence in 2011 following years of war with the Sudanese government, it fell into its own civil war, which killed or displaced hundreds of thousands of people.
The legacy of that conflict – along with frequent natural disasters – persists: Seven million of the country’s 12 million people are facing hunger in the coming months. The harrowing civil war in Sudan, which just entered its second year, has exacerbated things, driving an estimated 500,000 people across the border into South Sudan, straining the country’s resources further.
File Photo: South Sudan's President Salva Kiir Mayardit attends the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) 42nd Extraordinary Session, at the State House in Entebbe, Uganda January 18, 2024.
As oil stops flowing, South Sudan risks crisis
South Sudan’s main oil export pipeline has been caught in the crossfire of the brutal civil war ripping across its northern neighbor, threatening the country’s economy and power structure. The fighting means engineers can’t access the pipeline to repair damage, so South Sudan declared “force majeure” earlier this month, essentially absolving it of certain contractual obligations.
South Sudan is the least developed country in the world after Somalia, according to the UN’s Human Development Index, and some 90% of the country’s revenue comes from oil exports. Between two thirds and three quarters of its exports pass through Sudan, from which South Sudan broke away in 2011.
But very little of that revenue benefits ordinary citizens, as it is largely directed into “special projects” overseen by President Salva Kiir, who has been accused of corruptly diverting the funds. Experts told Al-Jazeera that Kiir uses the funds to pay off a tiny elite, who in turn keep him in power.
With the oil taps shut for the foreseeable future, South Sudan will likely face a currency depreciation, worsening the already grim economic situation. Without money to pay off elites, Kiir could also face a power struggle, particularly with (admittedly dubious) elections expected in December. Juba may not even have the cash to hold sham contests, which could spark unrest.
A volcanic eruption takes place, near Grindavik, Iceland, March 16, 2024, in this handout picture obtained by Reuters.
Hard Numbers: Icelandic volcano erupts, India sets election date, EU aids Egyptian economy, South Sudan schools close amid extreme heat
40: Just 40 minutes after authorities received indications of an eruption late Saturday, lava shot from a huge fissure on the Reykjanes Peninsula near Grindavik and the famed Blue Lagoon. The fourth — and probably biggest — eruption to have hit here since December nearly took services by surprise. The town and resort were both evacuated shortly after the eruption.
960 million: The largest-ever democratic exercise is set to begin on April 19 with a whopping 960 million voters participating in India’s parliamentary elections. Indians will head to the polls for seven electoral phases through June 1, with the count set to take place on June 4. Populist Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to secure another five years at the helm of an increasingly religiously divided India — but one that is also tipped to become the third-largest world economy by 2027. For GZERO’s guide to world elections in 2024, click here.
7.4 billion: The EU has agreed to send Cairo a funding package of €7.4 billion ($8.06 billion) between now and 2027 to help stabilize Egypt’s economy and wean it off Russian gas. The Egyptian economy has been hard hit by recent economic crises – most notably, the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, which is impacting tourism and shipping in the Suez Canal.
113: Children in South Sudan are unable to attend school starting today, owing to an extreme heat wave that could raise the mercury as high as 113 degrees Fahrenheit. All schools have been ordered to shut down, and parents are being advised to keep kids indoors with the scorching temps set to last for up to two weeks.What We're Watching: UAE-Saudi rivalry, South Sudan turns ten, Malaysian PM under pressure
Gulf grows between UAE and Saudi Arabia: Global oil prices surged this week to a six-year high after talks between the world's biggest oil-producing countries broke down. So what happened exactly? Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, usually close allies, are at loggerheads over how to boost OPEC oil production in the wake of the pandemic-induced economic crisis: the Saudis, along with the Russians, have proposed extending curbs on oil output levels for another eight months — a proposal vehemently rejected by the Emiratis. Abu Dhabi, for its part, has invested a lot to boost its output capacity, and now that global demand is up again it wants to renegotiate its production quotas within the OPEC framework. Riyadh, on the other hand, wants to cut supply levels so that prices remain high. It's a rare public spat between the two countries, whose leaders — Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed — enjoy a close personal bond, though a rivalry has been deepening in recent years as both try to establish their kingdoms as the top economic hub — and regional power — in the Gulf region.
South Sudan's bitter anniversary: July 9 marks 10 years since South Sudan gained independence from Sudan, becoming the world's youngest nation. At the time, hopes were high that the turmoil of Africa's longest civil war between Sudan's mostly-Muslim north and the Christian/animist south, would dissipate. But a decade later, many South Sudanese are still waiting for the good times to begin. Politically, the country is mired in instability as former rebel leaders who head the transitional government hold competing visions for the country's future. Meanwhile, inter-communal fighting between different ethnic groups has soared, showing the fragility of the nascent peace accord. Episodes of violence combined with drought and other extreme weather events have fueled a humanitarian disaster: the UN says that 2 out of 3 children in South Sudan are in desperate need of humanitarian support, while millions of people displaced by war remain stuck in refugee camps, with limited access to food, water and basic medical care in one of the UN's top 10 projected global hunger hotspots for this year. What's more, parts of the decade-old peace agreement have still not been implemented. Elections are supposed to be held in 2023 but many are calling for President Salva Kiir and his deputy Riek Machar, a former rebel leader, to step down because they have failed to effectively govern and provide basic services.
Malaysian PM under pressure: Malaysia's biggest political party has withdrawn its support for the fragile coalition government led by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. The United Malays National Organisation — which dominated the country's famously complicated politics until its shock election defeat three years ago — wants Muhyiddin to step down over his handling of the pandemic. (Malaysia is the third worst hit country in Southeast Asia). Yassin had declared a draconian state of emergency in January, which closed parliament for months, allowing the PM to govern by decree and diminishing UMNO's influence over policy. Without UMNO's votes, Muhyiddin now heads a minority coalition in parliament, which means he could be ousted without holding new elections through a no-confidence vote. Still that's unlikely because the only other politician capable of cobbling together a coalition is Muhyiddin's rival and anti-UMNO opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who's spent many years — including a few in jail — waiting to become Malaysia's prime minister. Meanwhile, the PM has agreed to partially suspend the state of emergency so lawmakers can return to parliament for a few days to discuss the country's political crisis.
What gives the UN’s top refugee advocate hope?
"I think that there are still positive forces, there are still leaders in the world who think in the right way, but…it's very 50/50." The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, has plenty to keep him up at night but when it comes to the fate of refugees in a post-pandemic world, it's not all doom and gloom. The refugee situation in Sudan and South Sudan, he tells Ian Bremmer, is one cause for hope. Their conversation was part of a new episode of GZERO World.
Watch the episode: UNHCR chief: How the pandemic has upended the lives of refugees