Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Google's new chatbot, Bard.
Hard Numbers: Meet Bard, grim new climate report, Colombia’s Toro ban, Uganda’s anti-LGBTQ law, IMF approves Sri Lankan relief
1.5: A new UN report says the world has less than a decade to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (the 2015 Paris Agreement’s target). Industrialized countries must halve greenhouse gasses by 2030 and halt carbon dioxide emissions by the 2050s to avoid cataclysmic flooding, droughts, heat waves, and species extinction.
8: Bullfighting remains legal in eight countries worldwide, but that may soon change. The majority of Colombians want to end the practice, which has been a tradition since colonial times. Colombia’s Senate recently voted to ban bullfighting, but the legislation now faces a tough challenge in the lower house, where an earlier proposed ban was shot down last year.
10: Uganda’s parliament passed a harsh new anti-LGBTQ bill on Tuesday that could lead to 10-year prison sentences for those who engage in “same-sex activity” or identify as LGBTQ. If President Yoweri Museveni signs the bill – he has suggested he supports it – Uganda will become the first African nation to criminalize simply identifying as LGBTQ.
2.9 billion: Sri Lanka has secured a $2.9 billion rescue package from the IMF to aid in its economic recovery. After defaulting on its sovereign debt last year, the island nation faced its worst economic disaster since independence. The package will likely boost international investment, but strict austerity measures will hurt Sri Lankan households already struggling with sky-high inflation.
Supporters of Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko gather during a protest to support its leader, Ousmane Sonko in Dakar, Senegal March 14, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Senegalese protests, Wifi in the Amazon, Sri Lankan strikes, Ukraine’s day in court
5,000: About 5,000 supporters of Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko are protesting against the government of two-term President Macky Sall, who they say is cracking down on civil society and targeting Sonko with cooked-up lawsuits. Sonko, who aims to run for president in 2024, is facing trials for libel and rape.
7: To be an illegal miner deep in the Amazon, you need diggers, guns, gumption, and evidently … good wifi. Amid a broader crackdown on these lawless wildcatters, Brazilian feds have seized 7 of Elon Musk’s Starlink portable internet terminals, which were set up at covert mining sites. The swoop comes as Amazon deforestation reached a new monthly high in February.
40: More than 40 Sri Lankan unions are striking to protest the country’s all-but-signed IMF loan deal, crippling the country’s ports, rail stations, airports, and schools. While the government sees the bailout as an essential lifeline to end the country's worst-ever economic crisis, the unions are furious about the tax-hikes that are part of the package.
3bn: Ukraine and Russia are going to court! In 2013, just before protests toppled the Russian-backed president of Ukraine, Kyiv got a $3 billion loan from Moscow. The Kremlin did it to keep Ukraine from slipping further into Europe’s orbit, but the subsequent pro-Western Ukrainian government saw it as a Russian financial albatross imposed under duress and refused to pay it back. Russia sued, and a UK court on Wednesday ruled that Ukraine has a case – so now it will go to trial.NATO flag
What We’re Watching: NATO members’ defense budgets, Social Security as a political weapon, China’s support for Sri Lanka
NATO chief wants more defense spending
As Russian aggression in Ukraine enters year two, NATO members need to boost their defense spending. That was the message from NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg Wednesday after a summit with member states’ defense ministers. Back in 2014, around the time of Russia’s invasion of Crimea, NATO states committed to raising their respective defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product. (NATO’s direct budget is separate from national defense budgets.) Still, while many have increased their spending on military equipment and training, most NATO states – including Germany, France, Italy, and Canada – still fall short of the 2% threshold. The US, for its part, leads the pack, spending 3.47% of GDP on defense. (You’ll likely remember that former President Donald Trump made a habit of slamming NATO members, particularly Germany, for not paying their fair share. As war ravages Europe again and tensions with China soar, Stoltenberg says that the 2% target, which expires next year, should be the floor – not the ceiling. Finland and Sweden, both vying to join the bloc, respectively spend 2% and 1.3% of GDP on defense.
The politics of entitlements
President Joe Biden has made crystal clear that he believes the protection of Social Security and Medicare benefits – federally protected pension and healthcare entitlements for seniors – is a powerful political weapon that Democrats can wield against Republicans. Some in the GOP have inadvertently helped him. A number of Republicans have signaled support for plans to reduce spending on these programs by raising retirement ages and finding other ways to reduce future benefits, and Florida Sen. Rick Scott has proposed a plan that would require Congress to reauthorize all federal programs every five years. The GOP’s House and Senate leaders, Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell, respectively, have said publicly they have no such intentions. But politics aside, the funding problems that Republicans point to are real. On Wednesday, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released a report warning that Social Security and Medicare spending will grow much faster than federal tax revenues over the next decade as the fast-rising number of retirees puts measurable strain on the solvency of both programs. Biden says the gap can be filled without cutting benefits by asking wealthier workers to pay more in payroll taxes. Republicans counter that tax increases on the needed scale would weigh heavily on future economic growth. The two parties remain miles apart on solutions.
Will China offer Sri Lanka debt salvation?
Sri Lanka is grasping for debt relief as it heads into a key international meeting with foreign lenders organized by the International Monetary Fund on Friday. Colombo hopes to pump the brakes on the country’s downward economic spiral that saw the country run out of foreign currency and experience its first-ever default last year, triggering food shortages, power cuts, and the wrath of protesters, which forced the resignations of the president and prime minister. The island nation pines for cuts in its debt from international backers, especially China, as the Middle Kingdom is one of Sri Lanka’s biggest creditors, holding about 10% of its $51 billion debt. Beijing has so far been opaque about debt reduction. It expressed ‘support’ for Sri Lanka this week heading into the meeting but stopped short of committing to lowering the debt. Doing so would be a dodgy proposition, not just for Chinese creditors who want to be paid, but for fear that other heavily indebted poor countries will want reductions in their debt burden as well. This puts the 22 million-strong nation, often cited as a cautionary example of China’s debt trap, in yet another tough bind: It needs an emergency IMF loan, but the Fund wants creditors to reduce Sri Lanka's debt beforehand. We’ll be watching to see how far China goes for Sri Lanka.Then and Now: Colombian peace talks, Sri Lankans' anger, Macron's challenges
Three months ago: Colombia government, ELN resume peace talks
One of Gustavo Petro’s first orders of business after becoming Colombia’s president in Aug. 2022 was to bring “total peace” to the country. As a result, three months ago, his leftist government announced it was resuming talks with the National Liberation Army, a guerilla group known as ELN, for the first time since 2019. The talks were hailed as a big deal considering that the 2,400-member strong force has been at war with the government since the 1960s. The ELN was the largest guerrilla group not to sign onto a historic 2016 peace deal between the government and guerilla groups, including the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. Since then, violence by the ELN and other armed groups financing their operations through drug trafficking and illegal mining has continued to terrorize Colombians, particularly in rural areas. Last week, however, Petro, a former guerilla, announced a breakthrough, saying his government had reached a peace agreement with the ELN for a six-month ceasefire. But the ELN came out shortly after and said no deal had been reached, stating that “a unilateral government decree cannot be accepted as an agreement.” Petro, for his part, has not responded to the group’s denial. Still, communication is a good thing, and the two sides say they will continue talks this month in Mexico. Petro discussed these issues, and more, in an interview with GZERO Media.
Six months ago: Sri Lankans’ wrath boils over
The global summer of discontent – prompted partly by post-pandemic economic turmoil and aggravated by the war in Ukraine – was on full display in Sri Lanka in July, where, as we wrote here, long-simmering public wrath directed at Sri Lanka’s leader over the country’s economic collapse finally boiled over. After months of blackouts and food scarcity that forced Colombo to default on its external debt for the first time in May 2022, thousands of Sri Lankans forced the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa before storming his residence. (The photos of them swimming in the president's pool were quite something.) While Sri Lanka’s economic path remains precarious – Colombo was forced last year to limit imports to essentials – there has been some progress. In September, President Ranil Wickremesinghe reached a preliminary deal with the International Monetary Fund for a $2.9 billion bailout package after Colombo made some reforms earlier in the year, including floating the rupee. But the IMF won’t follow through until Sri Lanka restructures the billions of dollars in debt owed to three main creditors: India, China, and Japan. Talks between Colombo and all three economic powerhouses remain ongoing, but a range of issues have prevented a deal from being reached before the end of 2022, which Colombo had been aiming for.
Nine months ago: No cakewalk for Emmanuel Macron
Back in April, we reported on French incumbent Emmanuel Macron’s electoral successes – he not only won a second term as president, a mean feat in French politics, but he also kept the country’s increasingly influential anti-establishment forces, on the right and left, at bay. Still, we noted that Macron’s second term would be anything but a cakewalk, with him facing a host of thorny issues at home and abroad. Fast forward nine months and it hasn’t been smooth sailing for Macron – and things are bound to get even dicier in the weeks ahead. In parliamentary elections back in June, Macron’s Ensemble Together bloc finished 44 seats short of a majority in the National Assembly, crippling the president’s ability to easily pass legislation and giving birth to what one French publication described as a “stillborn five-year term.”
The difficulty in getting his legislative agenda through will likely to come to a head soon as Macron is pushing ahead this week with his pension reform plan, which would raise the retirement age by three years to 65 – a move unpopular with roughly 70% of French voters. While Macron can find ways to get this through parliament using emergency powers, the government is already bracing for mass public outrage comparable to strikes in 2019 against the same proposal that paralyzed the country. Still, Macron says he will move ahead with pension reform as it is central to his pledge to reduce France’s debt-to-GDP ratio. Moreover, while Paris has spent billions of dollars to subsidize electricity bills, the cap on power prices rose this month from 4% to 15%, which is bound to hurt consumers at a time when food inflation remains sky-high.
From left to right, the presidents of Russia (Vladimir Putin), Iranian (Ebrahim Raisi), and Turkey (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) hold talks in Tehran.
What We're Watching: Tehran trilateral, EU food jitters, Sri Lankan presidential vote
Putin, Raisi & Erdogan in Tehran: friends with differences
Leaving the former Soviet region for the first time since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Tehran on Tuesday with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts. The conflict in Syria, where Russia and Iran are on the opposite side of Turkey, was the main item on the agenda, but little of substance was announced beyond a pledge to rid the country of terrorist groups and to meet again later this year. Importantly, Turkey’s recent threat to invade northern Syria to destroy Kurdish militant groups based there still hangs in the air — a point underscored by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s call for Russia and Iran to be more “supportive” of Turkey’s security concerns. Still, both Moscow and Tehran have warned him against an invasion. Putin and Erdogan also failed to close the remaining gaps on a UN-backed plan to restart Ukraine’s seaborne grain exports. Lastly, while Putin and the Iranians traded shots at NATO and the West, there was no public mention of the current, fast-fading efforts to revive the long-stalled 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
EU fillets financial sanctions over food concerns
The European Union is planning on Wednesday to relax sanctions against several major Russian banks in a move to address high global food prices. Although there are no Western restrictions on Russian food or agricultural goods specifically, many global traders have avoided taking Russian cargo because the Russian banks that finance those exports are sanctioned. The news comes as Ukraine and Russia are nearing a UN-brokered deal to reopen Ukraine’s Black Sea shipping lanes for grain exports. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, the two countries were leading exporters of grain and cooking oils, and Russia was a top fertilizer exporter. The war and sanctions interrupted much of those shipments, driving up global food prices and jeopardizing the livelihoods and food security of hundreds of millions of people globally. Although global food prices have eased since hitting historic highs in May, they are still 23% higher than they were a year ago, according to the UN. For complete coverage of the global food crisis, check out our Hunger Pains project.
Sri Lankan MPs pick unpopular president
Following last week's dramatic resignation of disgraced former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Sri Lankan's parliament on Wednesday endorsed his unpopular chosen successor amid mass social unrest sparked by a months-long economic collapse and political crisis. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former prime minister appointed acting president after Rajapaksa's departure, was confirmed in the top job by a majority of MPs over the little-known opposition hopeful Dullas Alahapperuma. On the one hand, Wickremesinghe has the experience to lead the country through tough times and crucial negotiations for an IMF bailout after serving — checks notes — sixstints as PM. On the other, most protesters want him out because he's considered a Rajapaksa loyalist (they even torching his private residence at the height of the popular uprising). The opposition now says they’re willing to give Wickremesinghe a chance, but the political turmoil will likely continue.
This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media, a subsidiary of Eurasia Group that offers balanced, nonpartisan reporting, and analysis of foreign affairs. Subscribe to Signal today.
Sri Lankans celebrate the resignation President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Colombo.
What We're Watching: Sri Lanka swears in new leader, Bolsonaro spends big, Biden to kiss the ring
Sri Lanka has a new acting president
Gotabaya Rajapaksa finally resigned — by email — on Thursday as president of Sri Lanka, a country rocked by months-long mass protests, economic collapse, and political turmoil over his rule. He fled the country on Tuesday, likely to avoid arrest, and is now in Singapore, but Rajapaksa’s final destination remains unclear. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the sitting PM Rajapaksa appointed interim president before getting out of Dodge, was sworn in as acting president on Friday. Wickremesinghe’s ability to govern, however briefly, is uncertain given that protesters also want him out. Parliament’s process for selecting the new leader now begins, with a vote coming as early as next week. MPs will have to come up with an alternative candidate to serve out the remainder of Rajapaksa's term until 2025, or hold a snap election. Whoever becomes president will then have to pick a prime minister to lead a government that'll need to pass tough economic reforms to secure an IMF bailout, the only way Sri Lanka can salvage its ruined economy. Demonstrators ignored a new curfew to publicly celebrate Rajapaksa’s resignation overnight, and all eyes are on what happens next on the streets of Colombo.
A Bolsonaro bonus?
Brazil’s embattled far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is hoping that a massive new social spending package will boost his chances of being re-elected this fall. The country’s lower house this week approved a bill that would increase welfare payments by 50% and give special bonuses to certain workers, in particular self-employed truckers and taxi drivers. To pass the bill, lawmakers had to scrap a constitutional limit on government spending. Supporters of the bill say it’s necessary to help ordinary Brazilians cope with an inflation rate currently hovering around 12%. Critics say spending this much money will only worsen inflation, and that it’s merely a political ploy to help Bolsonaro, whose polling numbers badly trail those of his archnemesis, leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The first round of the election will be held on Oct. 2.
Biden enters the kingdom
On day two of his Middle East trip, US President Joe Biden on Thursday signed a pact with Israeli PM Yair Lapid in which the US and Israel pledge to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. But each party has their own idea of how to do that. Washington is still holding out (fast fading) hopes of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, while the Israelis, skeptical of a deal, have always placed greater faith in a military deterrent. On Friday, Biden visits Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank. The meeting revives US-PA ties that the Trump administration had broken off, but Biden isn’t expected to unveil any fresh vision for Middle East peace. All eyes are really now on Biden’s onward journey to Saudi Arabia, where he’ll spend two days meeting with Gulf leaders including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Biden will look to secure more Gulf oil production to bring down crude prices as well as broader Arab-Israeli cooperation against Iran. One little question with big optics: will Biden shake the hand of MBS, the man he once pledged to make into a “pariah”? Biden’s team says COVID protocols prevent him from doing so, but that hasn’t stopped him from pressing the flesh in Israel …Demonstrators celebrate after entering the Sri Lankan PM's office in Colombo to demand his resignation as interim president.
Sri Lanka slipping into anarchy
Things have gone from bad, to worse, to outright crazy in Sri Lanka since the beginning of the year.
We warned you early on that the country would default on its huge sovereign debt, which it did in May. Since then, the economic crisis has quickly morphed into full-blown political turmoil and a social catastrophe the likes of which the region has not seen for a long time.
And there’s no easy fix.
The backstory. Thanks to the double whammy of COVID killing tourism and dismal economic policies — like banning chemical fertilizers to grow more organic food — the island nation depleted its foreign currency reserves weeks ago.
Sky-high inflation has pushed food prices through the roof and left one-quarter of Sri Lankans hungry. Life in Colombo has become a dystopian nightmare of empty schools by day and dark streets by night to save power since the country is virtually out of fuel.
Long-simmering public fury at deeply unpopular President Gotabaya Rajapaksa boiled over last weekend, when protesters occupied the presidential palace to demand his resignation. The president, from a dynasty that has dominated Sri Lankan politics for two decades, reluctantly agreed but has not been seen or heard from since.
The latest. Rajapaksa fled the country on Wednesday, and from the Maldives appointed his also-reviled PM Ranil Wickremesinghe as caretaker president. Wickremesinghe — who’d previously promised to quit himself — then declared a nationwide state of emergency, which protesters defied by storming his office. The interim leader responded by ordering the army to do "whatever's necessary" to maintain order.
We’re still waiting for Rajapaksa's official resignation letter, and no one seems to know who's really in charge.
So, what might happen next? Don’t count on a swift resolution, says Akhil Bery, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Even if Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe keep their promises to step down and MPs appoint successors, Bery believes a new interim government will lack a popular mandate, and be too weak and unstable to pass the tough economic reforms the IMF requires to bail out Sri Lanka. What’s more, Rajapaksa’s party controls parliament, having won a two-thirds majority in the 2020 election.
Finally, opposition leader and presidential hopeful Sajith Premadasa is also quite unpopular, and he lost big in the 2019 presidential election against Rajapaksa.
What about a coup? Bery says a military takeover — which would be Sri Lanka’s first — is unlikely because the army so far hasn’t cracked down hard on protesters. And the institutions, especially the judiciary, remain strong.
The only way out seems to be to hold a general election. But no one is talking about that, the cash-strapped government can hardly afford the cost, and the people are clearly in no mood to wait four months to vote.
The scarier and more likely scenario is continued unrest. What would that look like?
"Anarchy," predicts Bery, drawing a comparison to crisis-ridden Lebanon. "Sri Lanka has gone from having one of the highest development indicators in South Asia and being on the cusp of becoming an upper-middle-income country to [...] going backward. You could be staring at a lost generation here."
Meanwhile, the anger will keep bubbling. "There's as much frustration with the political situation and the capture of politics by the elite as there is with the economic crisis," Bery says.
"The no. 1 big political risk in South Asia is food inflation. People don't care about much, but if you can't put food on the table, that's when they take to the streets."
Demonstrators gather on the lawn of the Sri Lankan prime minister's office in Colombo.
Chaos in Sri Lanka
Just when we thought Sri Lanka’s worst-ever crisis was about to end, things took another unexpected turn on Wednesday.
Deeply unpopular President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who has reportedly agreed to resign but has not been seen or heard from in days, fled to the Maldives and is believed to be trying to secure asylum in Dubai or Singapore. Rajapaksa and his family were initially held up at Colombo airport by immigration officers who refused to check their passports inside the VIP lounge, where they were hoping to avoid crowds like those who occupied the presidential palace last weekend.
The president then appointed PM Ranil Wickremesinghe, a Rajapaksa ally who’d also promised to step down, as acting president until parliament meets to select a new head of state, which could take days. Wickremesinghe subsequently declared a nationwide state of emergency and curfew.
As expected, anti-government protesters — who want both men out — ignored the order, storming the prime minister's office in Colombo following a standoff with security forces. Wickremesinghe's whereabouts are unknown, and it's unclear who’s really in charge or who the military will side with moving forward.
Meanwhile, Sri Lankans are getting angrier, and things could go further south if the people don't soon get a new leader without Rajapaksa baggage.