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A Russian law enforcement officer during an unsanctioned protest against the special military operation in Ukraine in St. Petersburg.
Hard Numbers: Russian censorship, wheat prices soar, Chinese growth target, criminal Indian pols, Tanzanian democracy
15: Referring to the Kremlin’s actions in Ukraine as an “invasion” or a “war” could put Russians behind bars for up to 15 years, as stipulated in a new law against spreading “fake news.” To play it safe, stick to “special military operation.” (And don’t miss our very own Alex Kliment’s Twitter video take.)
55: Global wheat prices are up a whopping 55% since Russia invaded Ukraine. If the war continues, countries that depend on cheap Russian & Ukrainian wheat imports like Egypt or Lebanon could suffer tremendously.
5.5: China set on Saturday a 5.5% economic growth target for this year, the lowest figure since 1991. Still, it’s an ambitious goal given domestic challenges like zero COVID and the economic fallout of Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” policy, not to mention global uncertainty over the war in Ukraine.
25: Up to 25% of candidates running for MP in ongoing elections in five Indian states have criminal cases filed against them. Although this phenomenon is not new in the world’s largest democracy, experts say criminal politicians have become more powerful in recent years, especially in poor communities with weak public and justice services.
266: Tanzanian opposition leader Freeman Mbowe was released on Saturday after spending 266 days in jail on terrorism charges. This suggests President Samia Hassan — who took office almost a year ago after the death of the authoritarian John Magufuli — is ready to reconcile with the opposition in the East African nation.What We're Watching: Tanzania's new leader, big global economic recovery (for some), more bloodshed in Darfur
Tanzania's U-turn on COVID, press freedom: Tanzania's new President Samia Suluhu Hassan announced on Tuesday that she'll appoint a committee to determine whether the country should start responding to the pandemic, though she stopped short of implementing any sweeping changes. While it's late in the game more than a year since the pandemic was declared, it's still a big deal considering that her late predecessor John Magufuli, who she served under as deputy for six years, was a COVID denier who shunned masks and vaccines, refused to implement pandemic-related restrictions, and declared Tanzania virus-free thanks to prayers from its citizens. (Magufuli died last month, officially from heart complications but it's widely suspected he contracted COVID-19). Hassan, who has been criticized for embracing her former boss' authoritarian tendencies at times, also plans to lift Magufuli's bans on critical media outlets, another major shift for a nation where journalists are often prosecuted over social media posts critical of the government, and citizens are regularly denied access to independent sources of information. We're watching to see if Hassan delivers on her promise of change for Tanzania.
Global economy set to rebound big: The global economy is set to grow by 6 percent this year, the IMF now says, representing the biggest output surge since the 1970s. Much of this anticipated growth is attributed to big government stimulus packages pumped into developed economies like the US, the EU and Japan in recent months. In the United States, the world's largest economy, many economists estimate that the recently passed $1.9 trillion relief package will spur economic expansion by a whopping 6.4 percent in 2021, with the US set to join China as the only two economies to achieve GDP growth exceeding pre-pandemic levels. But the economic recovery will be vastly uneven. In some emerging market economies where governments don't have the means to pump huge amounts of cash into the economy, and a lack of travel has decimated tourism-reliant communities, the post-COVID economic rebound could take much longer, the IMF says. This trend is compounded by sluggish vaccine rollouts in many places because of vaccine hoarding by wealthy countries. Still, there is no hard-and-fast rule: In large economies where the virus continues to spread like wildfire, like in Brazil, the economy continues to teeter.
State of emergency in West Darfur: Last fall, a peace treaty was signed between Sudan's transitional civilian-military government and some Darfur rebel groups, raising hopes of a new peaceful era after decades of bloodshed in Sudan. Then, the UN-African Union peacekeeping mission announced it would withdraw from West Darfur (the Sudanese enclave that borders Chad) after 13 years of occupation. But in recent months, violence has continued unabated there, prompting the Sudanese government to declare a state of emergency. Over the past few days, at least 50 people were killed in violent clashes between ethnic groups, with projectiles hitting a UN compound and a hospital. Disagreements between Arabs and non-Arab herders over farming rights and water access, coupled with other ethnic tensions and easy access to cheap weapons, have created a combustible situation in conflict-ridden Darfur. Since 2003, when Sudan's then-President Omar al-Bashir waged a deadly crackdown to quash an ethnic revolt, some 300,000 people have been killed and millions displaced. As violence surges, hopes of a long-sought peace diminish.What We’re Watching: Belarus on strike, Iran (again) enriching uranium, Tanzania’s “Bulldozer”
Belarus on strike: In recent days, the Belarusian streets have turned up the heat on strongman President Alexander Lukashenko, as thousands of state factory workers and students in Belarus heeded a call from opposition leader Svyatlana Tikhanouskaya to join a general strike. Protests have roiled the country since August, when Lukashenko, in power since 1994, won a presidential election widely regarded as rigged. Last Sunday, 100,000 people turned up in Minsk, the capital. Tikhanouskaya — who ran against Lukashenko in that election and is currently exiled in neighboring Lithuania — had demanded the president resign by October 26. When he didn't, the walkout began. In one of the most iconic moments of protest so far, a striking worker at a refrigerator factory climbed the plant's tower to record a dramatic call for Lukashenko to step down. Belarus has been hit with sanctions from the US and EU, both of which are calling on him to hold new elections, but so far he has shown no signs of backing down, deploying his riot police with the usual fury. Something's got to give, soon.
Iran's nuclear project: The UN's nuclear watchdog said Wednesday that Iran has resumed work at its underground uranium enrichment plant in Natanz after the area mysteriously exploded back in July. Natanz, 200 kilometers south of Tehran, Iran's capital, has long been a flashpoint in the row between the West and Iran over the latter's nuclear program after satellite images in the early 2000s showed rapid construction in Natanz. Now, the UN watchdog says that while satellite imagery suggests that Tehran is in fact continuing to stockpile increased amounts of low-enriched uranium — which can be used to make a nuclear bomb — it does not appear to have amassed enough to produce a weapon at this stage. Indeed, since President Trump walked away from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Tehran has steadily been ramping up the amount of uranium it can stockpile, in breach of the 2015 accord. Meanwhile, the temperature between Washington and Tehran has been simmering since the US assassinated General Qassim Suleimani, head of Iran's elite, paramilitary Quds Force, back in January. If Joe Biden wins on November 3, will he opt to resume dialogue with Tehran — a move that might encourage the Iranian regime to hit pause on nuclear enrichment?
The Tanzanian "Bulldozer": Tanzanians go to the polls today in an election where the result is already known: President John Magufuli, one of Africa's most eccentric leaders, will get a second term in office. Magufuli — who likes to be called "The Bulldozer" for his love for public works and his pitiless approach towards critics — remains immensely popular. He has invested millions in infrastructure mega-projects and, having refused to shut down the country over COVID-19, can boast one of Africa's few economies to actually grow this year. However, dissidents warn that Magufuli is eroding democracy by cracking down on the opposition, muzzling the independent media, and tweaking laws to favor the ruling Party of the Revolution (which has dominated Tanzanian politics for decades). Although it's unclear how the pandemic will affect the election, "The Bulldozer" has declared the country coronavirus-free thanks to prayers from Tanzanians. For the sake of the millions voting in person in crowded facilities, he better be right.The Graphic Truth: Where will the next megacities be?
By 2030, ten urban areas are projected to attain "megacity" status, a population of more than 10 million people. Six will be in Asia, where more than half of the population will be living in cities at the end of the decade. But the fastest growing megacities will be in Africa — including new megacities in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Luanda (Angola). Can urban planners and governments in Africa keep pace with this rapid urban growth? We look at the world's upcoming megacities, comparing their current and future estimated populations, to get a sense of how crowded each megalopolis will be in 2030.