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Laborers offload bags of grains as part of relief food that was sent from Ukraine at the World Food Program.
Ethiopians caught in the middle
Weeks after the US and UN halted food aid deliveries to Ethiopia over the massive theft of supplies, Ethiopians are beginning to die of hunger because of the pause, according to new reports.
Quick recap: Earlier this month, the US announced that it was suspending food and medical supplies to Ethiopia because storage facilities were being looted – including by government officials – and sold on the commercial market.
The move was a huge blow for Addis Ababa as the US is by far its largest humanitarian donor, doling out $1.8 billion since the beginning of 2022. Confirming the findings, the UN World Food Programme promptly followed suit.
What happens now? The US says it is looking at food aid reforms in the country, though it is unclear when shipments will resume or if the central government will play ball, considering that some of its own have been implicated in the scheme. The Ethiopian government has agreed to conduct a joint probe with the US, while the UN is conducting its own.
Indeed, this is a catastrophe in a country – burdened by a civil war in the northern Tigray region that broke out in 2021 – where 20 million people rely on food assistance.
For the US, this also highlights the dilemma of delivering aid to countries grappling with endemic corruption and poor governance. On one hand, continuing to hand out goods sends a message to the bad guys that theft is permissible. It also makes it harder to convince taxpayers at home that it is worth aiding countries embroiled in drawn-out crises (hello, Ukraine!). On the other hand, the humanitarian argument for continuing to provide supplies that will reach at least some needy Ethiopians is clear-cut.
What do you think the US should do? Write to us here.
US President Joe Biden during a campaign stop ahead of the midterm elections in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
What We're Watching: Biden's secret papers, Ukrainians in Oklahoma, Tigrayan demobilization
Check your closets for classified docs
It’s been a rollercoaster kind of week for US President Joe Biden.
On the downside, it seems he just plumb forgot to return not one but two batches of classified documents from his days as VP. The first cache was reportedly found on Nov. 2 – yes, you read that right, just days before the midterms – but not reported publicly until Monday. Then, on Wednesday, reports emerged of a second tranche of unreturned docs discovered at another location. Biden, keen to distinguish himself from the way former President Donald Trump handled his own classified documents scandal, said his lawyers followed protocol and immediately contacted the National Archives about returning the documents. A Justice Department review is underway.
The good news this week for Biden is that for the first time since the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in Aug. 2021, his approval rating (46%) is now higher than his disapproval (45%), according to an Economist/YouGov survey. Why the uptick? Biden has signed major pieces of legislation like CHIPS and the Inflation Reduction Act in recent months. Meanwhile, Republicans blew their chance for a “red wave” in the midterms, and the GOP's chaotic election of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy shows just how deep divisions in the party are. Still, House GOP members are hellbent on investigating Biden over a range of issues including, perhaps, the newfound classified files. Biden has had a good nine months — could the GOP-controlled house change his fortunes?
Ukrainian fighters headed for Oklahoma
As Russia and Ukraine argue over who is winning the battle for strategically important towns in the Donbas region, there are new signs that US support for Ukraine’s defense is intensifying. The US Defense Department has announced it will welcome up to 100 Ukrainian soldiers to a training facility in Oklahoma next week to teach them over the coming months how to use and maintain a truck-mounted Patriot missile defense system (or battery) that the US has agreed to provide to Ukraine’s military. (The US is supplying one battery, and Germany will provide a second.) It’s a significant step toward helping Ukraine establish a unified air defense system at a time when Russia is relying heavily on long-range artillery to target critical Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure as well as Ukrainian cities. This isn’t the first time Ukrainian soldiers have been invited to the US for training, but it remains unusual. The US also says it will train hundreds more Ukrainians in Germany in the use of other powerful weapons.
The long road to peace in Ethiopia
Tigrayan rebels on Wednesday started handing over heavy weapons to Ethiopia's federal government, as mandated by a cease-fire agreement signed two months ago. The deal ended more than two years of armed conflict and a humanitarian crisis that has killed thousands, left hundreds of thousands close to famine, and displaced millions. So far, so good, right? Not so fast. First, aid delivery and services have resumed but remain far below what's needed for a region that has been clobbered by fighting and cut off from the rest of Ethiopia since Nov. 2020. Second, before signing on the dotted line, the Tigrayans demanded the withdrawal of troops from neighboring Eritrea, who have been on-again, off-again fighting on behalf of the Ethiopian government for much of the war. Not all the foreign soldiers have left, and Asmara — which did not join the peace talks in South Africa — has been silent for months. Demobilization of the rebels is a big step toward ending the conflict, but peace will remain elusive until all of Tigray is fully back to business and Eritrea is finally out.Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto leads a rally ahead of the midterm elections in Henderson, Nevada.
What We’re Watching: Dems’ Senate victory, Iran's first protester death sentence, Ethiopia's peace deal
Dems take the Senate
The long wait has ended with Democrats retaining control of the US Senate. The victory was sealed after Catherine Cortez Masto, the Nevada incumbent locked in a tight race against her Donald Trump-backed rival, squeezed through with a narrow win. Meanwhile, a Democrat also won Nevada’s race for secretary of state – another midterm defeat for pro-Trump election deniers. With the Senate now at 50-49 for Dems (who have the advantage of VP Harris’ tie-breaking vote), the White House is now turning its attention to Georgia. A Senate runoff in the Peach State on Dec. 6 could see the Dems clinch 51 seats, giving them majorities in Senate committees and more wiggle room on key bills. Meanwhile, the House remains too close to call, but the GOP is slightly favored to win, needing just 7 seats to reach a majority, compared to the Dems’ 14. Still, many of the 21 House seats that haven’t been called yet are toss-ups, and the Dems have secured victories in unexpected races over the past few days. Buckle up for a nail-biter.
Iran sentences protester to death and indicts dozens
On Sunday, a Tehran court issued its first death sentence linked to ongoing riots in the Islamic Republic, and dozens more were indicted in a bid to quash the women-led movement that’s rocked the country for two months. At least 300 people have been killed and 15,000 arrested since nationwide protests erupted after the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for donning her hijab "improperly." The death sentence comes weeks after 80% of Iran’s parliamentarians voted in favor of executing demonstrators, the majority of whom are young women calling for regime change. To date, most of the indictments – over 1,000 – have been handed down in Tehran, the capital, but the latest charges were issued in the southern province of Hormozgan, suggesting that the use of Iran’s draconian judiciary to deal with protesters is intensifying. A transnational group that tracks political detentions says at least 65 of those charged are minors. Meanwhile, Iceland and Germany are calling for a special session at the UN Human Rights Council to discuss the situation, which could send a powerful message to the mullahs but is unlikely to have a real bearing on the regime’s crackdown.
Inching closer to peace in Tigray
The Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces have agreed to terms for a peace deal that could end a two-year conflict that’s turned the northern region of Tigray into a hellscape. The deal stipulates that both sides will begin to lay down their arms on Nov. 15 and comes after Ethiopia's central government and the Tigrayan Popular Liberation Front, a paramilitary group, agreed in principle to end the war at an African Union-brokered summit earlier this month. The aim is to create a humanitarian corridor to Tigray, which has long been blockaded by Addis Ababa, leaving more than 89% of Tigray’s population requiring food assistance. Still, several sticking points remain, including whether Eritrean forces, who have fought alongside Ethiopian forces and have their own territorial claims, will put down their arms. Clearly, the Tigrayans won't abide by the deal’s terms until all their opponents do. Will one of the world’s bloodiest conflicts finally come to an end?
This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Ethiopian government representative Redwan Hussien and Tigray delegate Getachew Reda pass documents during the signing of the AU-led negotiations to resolve the conflict in northern Ethiopia
Just like that: Is Ethiopia’s war over?
For two years, it was one of the world’s most gruesome conflicts. Hundreds of thousands displaced, millions at risk of famine, and a rapidly shifting frontline that drew in neighboring countries and saw allegations of war crimes by both sides.
And then suddenly, last week, Ethiopia’s civil war, which pitted the federal government against fighters from the northern region of Tigray, seemed to end. Both sides agreed to a peace framework at talks in South Africa.
Why? How? And what are the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation, a country that until recently was one of the world’s fastest growing economies?
First a refresher on how we got here: Tigray is home to 7 million of Ethiopia’s 120 million people. For decades the Tigrayan Popular Liberation Front, a political party, was top dog in Ethiopia’s dictatorship. But in 2018, a democratic popular revolution swept current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to power. Two years later, a dispute with the TPLF over the timing and legality of local elections turned ugly. The Tigrayans felt their autonomy was threatened, while Abiy saw a challenge to federal authority from an ethnic group accustomed to having more power. War broke out and quickly drew in troops from neighboring Eritrea who fought alongside Ethiopian forces.
Peace: why now? The Ethiopian federal government has been struggling with an economic downturn, soaring inflation, the worst drought in 40 years, and the increasing costs of waging a war against a well-armed adversary fighting on its home turf.
But it was the Tigrayans – exhausted by nearly two years of siege and bombardment, running low on food and munitions, and reeling from recent Ethiopian battlefield gains – who were desperate to stop the war, say analysts.
Growing pressure from an international community that saw the limits of its ability to influence Addis Ababa also played a role, according to Connor Vasey, an Ethiopia analyst with Eurasia Group
“In the end,” Vasey says, “time was on Addis Ababa’s side but not on Tigray’s.”
So what’s in the deal?
Given Addis Ababa’s advantages, the deal is a sweet one for PM Abiy. The Tigrayans must give up their heavy weapons, recognize the authority of the federal government again, and hold fresh elections under Ethiopian national laws. In exchange, the federal government would relax its siege of the region, allowing desperately needed aid and services to resume.
“The deal was a huge diplomatic and political victory for the federal government,” says William Davison, Ethiopia senior analyst at International Crisis Group. “It allows the prime minister to tell the world that the war is over and that financial assistance to his country should resume in a rapid and substantial way.”
What’s the catch? The biggest initial sticking point, analysts say, will be the terms of Tigrayan disarmament. Eritrean troops remain in Tigray, but that country, ominously, is not party to the peace deal at all. So long as those troops – as well as those from neighboring regions of Ethiopia, which are also nibbling away at Tigrayan territory – stick around, Tigrayans won’t feel secure enough to give up their heavy weapons.
But in that case, the federal government's siege could remain partially or wholly in place, with devastating consequences for ordinary Tigrayans.
“One of the main fruits of this agreement,” says Davison, “would be relief for the Tigrayan population.” But if the disarmament talks fall through, “that may not actually be forthcoming.”
Human rights watchdogs, meanwhile, worry about accountability for crimes committed by both sides during the fighting. The current accord, says Amnesty International, “fails to offer a clear roadmap” for justice and “overlooks rampant impunity in the country.”
What to watch next: Military leaders from the two sides are currently negotiating disarmament terms in Nairobi, Kenya. By Friday evening, analysts say, it will be clear whether the fledgling peace has a chance. But given the uncertainty about Tigrayan security, and the lingering Eritrean wildcard, a durable end to the war could be a long shot yet.
Ethiopian government representative Redwan Hussien and Tigray delegate Getachew Reda attend signing of the AU-led negotiations to resolve the conflict in northern Ethiopia.
What We’re Watching: Ethiopian peace deal, Russia’s grain U-turn, Kim Jong Un’s wrath, China’s production woes
Peace at last in Ethiopia?
The government of Ethiopia and rebels from the Tigray region agreed on Wednesday to “permanently” end their civil war. The conflict, which began in late 2020 as Tigrayan forces sought more autonomy from the central government, spiraled into a brutal war that displaced millions, drew in forces from neighboring Eritrea, brought parts of the country to the brink of famine, and led to possible war crimes on both sides. The precise terms of the peace agreement, reached during African Union-brokered peace talks in South Africa, aren’t yet clear, but former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who oversaw the negotiations, said the sides had pledged to put down their weapons, restore “law and order” and open full access to humanitarian aid. One big wildcard? Eritrea, which was not involved in the talks but has its own security interests and territorial claims along its border with Tigray.
Rare good news from Ukraine
Russia has (again) reversed itself on a deal allowing Ukrainian food exports to cross the Black Sea toward international markets, this time by reaffirming its support for safe passage. This is great news for developing countries, particularly in Africa, that badly need affordable food supplies at a time of economic hardship. Under the rules of the July deal brokered by the UN and Turkey, Ukrainian grain and sunflower oil may leave Ukrainian ports and proceed through an agreed-upon maritime corridor. The ships are then inspected in Turkey to ensure they’re not carrying weapons. After a drone attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea, Russia retaliated on Saturday by announcing it would no longer support the deal. But, apparently to the Kremlin’s surprise, the ships continued their journey, essentially daring Russia to sink ships carrying food. Its bluff called, Moscow announced on Wednesday that it would continue to support the deal after all. The original agreement expires on November 19, and many have wondered whether Russia would renew it. This latest reversal suggests Moscow now understands it has little to gain by opposing it.
North Korean missile first
Supreme leader Kim Jong Un hates being ignored. To demand attention, North Korea let off its largest-ever, one-day barrage of missiles on Wednesday, firing 23 ballistics into the sea. One landed a mere 40 miles from the South Korean shore, the closest coastal near-miss since the peninsula was divided in 1945. The move came just as the US and South Korea began large-scale joint military drills, which drive Pyongyang up the wall and prompted it to threaten “powerful follow-up measures.” In response, South Korea flipped on air raid sirens, canceled commercial flights to Japan, and fired a volley of its own missiles northward into the sea. North Korea has conducted a record number of ballistic missiles this year in defiance of international sanctions. Talks between the US and North Korea on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons, meanwhile, remain in a deep freeze, and Wednesday’s barrage follows reports that Kim may be preparing his first nuclear weapon test since 2017.
Update: On Thursday, North Korea launched a suspected ICBM, which flew 472 miles before landing in the sea. The test likely failed but prompted a rare emergency alert in northern Japan.
Chinese manufacturing in chaos
China’s manufacturing sector is in a tailspin this week after several large production lines were shut down due to the country’s restrictive zero-COVID policy. On Wednesday, mass lockdowns in the industrial city of Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province, caused several electronic factories to shutter, including Foxconn, one of the manufacturing hubs for iPhones that employs around 200,000 workers. Shortly after, Nio, an electric vehicle manufacturer, announced it was stopping operations at two factories in eastern Anhui province due to supply-chain kinks that have left it short of crucial parts. Some of Nio’s vehicles are bound for European markets that are already facing sky-high prices for cars and other commodities. While many predicted that President Xi Jinping would relax the country’s zero-COVID policy after October’s Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress, so far he’s doubled down on it. Crucially, the timing of this, just weeks before the holiday season, could not be worse for Big Tech or consumers.A cross-industry strike movement brings together several thousand people in the streets of Lille, France.
What We’re Watching: Macron’s challenges, Xi’s power play, Iran’s scarfless athlete, Ethiopia’s gains in Tigray
Walkouts put Macron on the spot
France’s notoriously strike-o-phile public sector unions called a nationwide walkout on Tuesday, demanding higher wages in response to high inflation. The move, which mainly affects public transport and trains, comes amid weeks-long strikes by workers at major oil companies and nuclear plants. Although inflation in France has softened compared to other Western European nations, the country is still seeing its fastest price increases since the mid-1980s. For President Emmanuel Macron, who was reelected in April, the strikes and protests are a taste of the troubles he may face in the coming months. His 2023 budget is caught in a parliamentary crossfire as MPs on the right and left try to cram in more spending and larger tax increases than Macron wants. Meanwhile, winter is fast approaching, with uncertain consequences for the French public’s energy bills – though the Parisian parkour set is doing its graceful best to address the problem every night. And Macron is still aiming to push through a major — and deeply unpopular — pension reform before next spring.
Xi is planning a power play
Xi Jinping has been widely expected to use the 20th congress of China's ruling Communist Party this week to appoint his allies to most top positions. But now we're learning that he might do a bigger-than-expected overhaul by changing up four of the seven members of the elite Politburo Standing Committee. The biggest name likely to join China's highest decision-making body is Shanghai party boss Li Qiang, whom Xi wants to elevate despite bungling the city's COVID lockdown earlier this year. Li could even replace Li Keqiang (no relation) as premier — No. 2 rank in the CCP — instead of the (sort of) reform-minded Wang Yang, an earlier frontrunner for the gig. If Xi follows through on these plans, China's leader will face zero elite party resistance to pursue his agenda and stay in power indefinitely. But having a trusted lieutenant as premier might also encourage Xi to delegate some authority to Li, who would become more influential than his predecessor — crucial for managing the economy, traditionally the premier's job. Keep an eye out Sunday, when the seven most powerful men in China will walk onto the stage at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Headscarf head-scratcher as Iranian female climber returns home
Where is Elnaz Rekabi? That’s a question that has dominated headlines in recent days, after the female Iranian competitive climber drew global attention this weekend by competing in South Korea without a headscarf. Iranian women are required to wear the hijab in public — even when they compete abroad. Rekabi was feared to be missing, but the South Korean and Iranian governments had confirmed that she was en route home with her teammates. On Tuesday, an Instagram post on her account said her hijab fell off "inadvertently” during the competition and that it was a matter of “bad timing.” It’s unclear who wrote the message, or under what circumstances. But the incident coincides with her country being in the throes of protests over the in-custody death of a woman who was arrested for having her hair uncovered. And it echoes the 2021 controversy surrounding Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai, who disappeared for weeks after accusing a high-ranking Chinese official of sexual assault. Hundreds of Rekabi’s supporters greeted her with cheers when the athlete arrived in Tehran early Wednesday.
A new phase in Ethiopia's civil war?
Almost two years into its war with the independent Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Ethiopia’s central government has taken control of a key city in the northern Tigray region. Shire, home to around 160,000 people, many of whom fled conflict in other parts of Tigray, is a strategic win that could help the government make inroads toward Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital. The city also has an airport that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may be hoping his forces can use as a launchpad for drone strikes. Peace talks under the auspices of the African Union were recently postponed due to logistical issues; both sides had reportedly agreed to attend, but there are doubts over the political will to make progress. On Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the situation is “spiraling out of control” and called on both sides to back down. A government blockade has long prevented crucial humanitarian aid from getting through to desperate Tigrayans – with a staggering 89% of its 6 million people lacking consistent access to food. Since fighting began in late 2020, both sides have been accused of human rights abuses. The US, which has brokered several ceasefires that ultimately collapsed, says it backs the AU’s plan for talks, but critics question whether the union can really broker peace.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Hard Numbers: Fenced-off Shanghai, Tigrayan soldiers seek asylum, Saudi royals sell assets, overtaxed Argentine farmers
6: After partly relaxing its COVID-19 lockdown last week, Shanghai is now erecting metal barriers to keep people indoors in high-risk districts. Frustration among residents is mounting, as seen in a six-minute video about the lockdown’s impact that's gone viral on Chinese social media despite censors' attempts to block it.
500: Over 500 Ethiopian soldiers from the war-torn Tigray region deployed as UN peacekeepers in Sudan say they won't return home because they fear for their safety. They want asylum in the neighboring country, which has a beef with Ethiopia over a controversial dam on the Upper Nile.
600 million: Big-spending members of the Saudi royal family have recently sold more than $600 million worth of art, real estate, and yachts stashed in the US and Europe. The royals are worried about getting cut off by de-facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who — by Saudi standards — is somewhat more frugal.
64.9: Thousands of Argentine farmers took to the streets of Buenos Aires on Saturday for an anti-tax protest. You'd probably do the same if an estimated 64.9% of your income went to the government.Residents carry Ukrainian national flag as they gather in the Olympic Stadium to mark the Unity Day.
What We're Watching: US-NATO skepticism, EU rule of law ruling, US truckers' protests, atrocities in Tigray, guac wars
US-NATO skepticism and Ukrainian unity. The US and NATO aren’t yet buying claims by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that some Russian troops have pulled back from the Ukrainian border. “We have good reason to believe the Russians are saying one thing and doing another … in an effort to hide the truth,” said a US State Department spokesman on Wednesday. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg then warned that NATO sees a continued buildup of Russian troops and that the alliance must prepare for a “new normal” in which “Russia is willing to contest some fundamental principles of our security.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, continues to strike a delicate balance. On Wednesday, he tried rallying his war-weary country to celebrate a "Unity Day" with mixed results. He's urging both outsiders and Ukrainians not to exaggerate the threat of a Russian invasion that is stoking fears and hurting Ukraine’s economy. But he’s also moving forward with a bold plan to tackle Russia-friendly “oligarchs” at home. He announced on Monday that he will keep promises to tackle both corruption and Russian influence within Ukraine by stripping some of the country’s richest business owners of some of the wealth that Zelensky says gives them too much influence over the country’s policies and politics.
Is Europe really Hungary to fight over money? The European Court of Justice on Wednesday ruled that the EU can withhold money from members that violate the bloc’s rule of law standards. This gives the EU a tool for ensuring democratic norms are upheld in countries like Poland and Hungary, which have been accused of undermining judicial independence and facilitating corruption. Warsaw and Budapest say the ruling is an attack on their sovereignty. The ball is in the EU’s court, putting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the spot. The European Parliament, which approves bloc-wide budgets, wants her to use the mechanism right away, particularly against Hungary, which faces crucial elections in April. But larger states like Germany and France prefer a slower roll, particularly as the standoff with Russia over Ukraine tests European unity.
US truckers revving up to protest. Buckle up America, the big wheels are coming. Organizers of an American protest modeled on the Canadian truckers’ “Freedom Convoy” say they’ll begin driving on Feb. 23 from California to Washington, D.C., to protest vaccine mandates and other pandemic restrictions. The announcement comes just days after the Canadian government invoked emergency powers to clear a weekslong anti-mandate protest by Canadian truckers who have occupied downtown Ottawa and blocked crucial US-Canada trade routes. Depending on how much momentum the American truckers get, the “People’s Convoy” could exacerbate supply chain issues and the trucker shortage, posing a tough political challenge for President Joe Biden as he struggles to regain the narrative on the pandemic and the economy.
Atrocities in Ethiopia. Fighters affiliated with the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have killed civilians, gang-raped dozens of women and girls, and looted property in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, according to a report published on Wednesday by Amnesty International. The rights group accuses Tigrayan rebels of these crimes, part of an ongoing civil conflict plaguing the country in recent years. It’s not just the rebels who are committing atrocities, according to Amnesty. The group says it has also documented massacres and sexual violence by Ethiopian government forces and allied militias, as well as fighters from neighboring Eritrea. The ongoing conflict, with sharp swings of momentum between government and rebel forces, continues to inflict hunger and suffering. Amnesty is calling for UN investigations and coordinated efforts to bolster human rights in the region.
Is there a guac war? Avocado lovers’ eyes may have watered at the checkout over the past year as prices for the fruit (yes it’s a fruit) have doubled, but now they may simply cry. The US has banned imports of avocados from Mexico, following an alleged verbal threat made by phone against a US safety inspector there. The avocado trade is a multi-billion dollar business these days, and even Mexico’s powerful drug cartels are fighting for a slice of the action. The ban will remain in place until Mexico can guarantee the safety of US fruit inspectors, but with 80 percent of avocados in America coming from Mexico, that means fans of the erotically named fruit will need to brace for higher prices and empty shelves. President Andres Manuel López Obrador, meanwhile, has hit back, accusing Washington of conspiring against Mexican traders to boost American farmers’ sales.