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Tesla CEO Elon Musk steps out of a vehicle, during his visit to China, in Beijing, China, April 28, 2024, in this screen grab taken from a video.
Beijing gives Blinken cold shoulder, extends warm welcome to Musk
Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a high-profile visit to China, marked by terse talk and some tough symbols. Two days ahead of Blinken’s arrival, China launched a submarine-based ballistic missile test, and as he departed, the Chinese air force flew jets over the Taiwan Strait. Beijing was not amused by the US Congress passing a supplemental spending bill last week, including billions in military assistance to Taipei.
In contrast, Tesla founder Elon Musk's surprise visit starting Sunday was all smiles. Musk posted to X about the honor of meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who heralded Tesla as a pillar of US-China economic cooperation. Tesla has sold more than 1.7 million cars in China since it entered the market a decade ago, and its largest factory is in Shanghai.
Musk wants to roll out Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology in China before Chinese automakers deploy similar capabilities. Musk is also seeking approval to transfer data collected in China to the US to train algorithms for FSD tech. Market watchers called the unexpected visit "a major moment for Tesla" as the company struggles with layoffs and slumping sales.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds a press conference at a metro station in Kyiv.
What We're Watching: Zelensky meets top US officials, Indonesia hoards palm oil
US officials visit Kyiv
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky spent Sunday waiting for a visit from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the highest-level American delegation to visit Kyiv since the Russian invasion began. Zelensky reportedly told the senior US officials that Ukraine needs more powerful weapons to resist the Russians. After the meeting, Blinken announced that the US would reopen its embassy in Ukraine (in the western city of Lviv) and pledged more military funding to Ukraine in addition to the $800 million in military support Biden announced on Thursday, which included heavy artillery, ammunition, and tactical drones. But Kyiv is also asking for long-range air defense systems and fighter jets. The Americans have rebuffed similar earlier requests and blocked NATO allies like Poland from supplying Soviet-era warplanes to avoid risking a direct military confrontation with Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine is trying to set up humanitarian routes for escape from the besieged port city of Mariupol, where an estimated 100,000 people remain stuck with little food, water, or heat.
Indonesia’s palm oil export ban
In the latest ripple effect from the food price crisis spurred by Russia's war in Ukraine, Indonesia on Friday banned the export of palm oil, the most consumed edible oil in the world. President Joko Widodo wants to address a domestic shortage that has caused prices to skyrocket (and Indonesians to protest). This ban is a very big deal because Indonesia is the world's top producer of palm oil, accounting for more than half of the global supply. More broadly, it comes amid soaring prices for cooking oil due to the conflict between the two sunflower superpowers, Russia and Ukraine. The ban is expected to be short-lived and for exports to resume once the country stocks up enough palm oil for the price hike to subside. Until then, Indonesia’s top customers — China and India — will feel the pinch.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrive for security talks at the Hotel President Wilson.
What We’re Watching: Ukraine diplomacy, India’s no-campaign election, Italian presidential conclave, Burkina Faso coup, Russia moves on crypto
Ukraine diplomatic blitz. The US and the UK have withdrawn some staff from their embassies in Kyiv, and NATO countries put more troops on standby amid an ongoing flurry of diplomacy to stop Russia from invading Ukraine. After playing defense for his boss over Joe Biden’s controversial remarks about Russia and Ukraine, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of a severe response if any Russian forces cross the border. However, Blinken — who is trying to shore up a united front with Europe while keeping the Russian dialogue open — turned down Ukraine’s demand for preemptive sanctions against Russia. Also, the UK accused the Russians of planning to install a pro-Moscow leader in Kyiv. Meanwhile, on the ground both sides continue to beef up their military presence. While the first US weapons arrived in Ukraine, across the border Russia moved troops and equipment to Belarus, Ukraine’s northern neighbor and a staunch Moscow ally. Blinken is expected to continue talks this week with the Russians, but there’s an X factor: China. Xi Jinping, whom Vladimir Putin now calls his “old friend”, probably doesn’t want the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics to be marred by a hot war in Europe, so perhaps he’ll try to talk his pal out of an invasion.
India debates elections or infections. Elections in the world’s largest democracy are quite the spectacle. They are massive logistical undertakings, marked by weeks of colorful campaigning and festivals. But COVID restrictions on large rallies mean the upcoming polls in five states — including Uttar Pradesh, the most populous one — will be conducted somewhat differently. As daily infections have spiked from less than 10,000 to over 300,000 in just one month, many Indians are feeling déjà vu from the spring of 2021, when India suffered a devastating second pandemic wave also preceded by state elections. PM Narendra Modi — who at the time claimed that India had beaten the virus — didn’t stop campaigning and allowed religious festivals to turn into superspreader events, only to later take fire for his mishandling of the public health crisis. But for the February polls, the election commission, and the courts have both spoken: yay to democracy, nay to campaigning. We’ll be keeping an eye on whether the restrictions result in lower turnout, which could hurt Modi’s ruling BJP party.
Italy's presidential "election." More than 1,000 Italian MPs and regional delegates begin voting on Monday in a complex process with serious papal conclave vibes to select a new president. Candidates need a two-thirds majority to win in the first three rounds, and after that 50 percent of the vote. There's no clear favorite to replace the outgoing Sergio Matarella as president, a largely ceremonial post that also has the power to pick prime ministers, call early elections, and sign/veto laws. Silvio Berlusconi, the 85-year-old former prime minister and “bunga bunga” king, initially threw his hat into the ring, but dropped out at the last moment. Current PM Mario Draghi is reportedly interested, although most Italian political parties would rather he continue leading Italy’s unity coalition government until legislative elections scheduled for next year. Draghi, a popular and respected former European Central Bank chief, has ambitious plans to cut Italian red tape in order to pump 192 billion euros ($218 billion) of EU pandemic relief money into the economy. Will "Super Mario" agree to stay in his current post to get the job done?
Mutineers, militants, and mines. Rebel soldiers in the West African nation of Burkina Faso on Monday reportedly arrested President Roch Kaboré in an apparent coup. A day earlier the mutineers had taken over some barracks, demanding that the government give them more resources to fight jihadists, sack the military and intelligence chiefs, and provide welfare for their wounded. The Burkinabé army has long struggled to combat Islamic State-linked militants, who are increasingly using the country to make inroads in the wider Sahel region. The government initially dismissed the power grab, which happened amid wider popular discontent with the president. Kaboré, who was re-elected in 2020 for a second term, has failed to defeat the insurgency, which is causing one of the world’s most underreported humanitarian disasters. What’s more, Burkina Faso has a lot of gold mines whose foreign investors are getting fed up with jihadist attacks.
Russia vs crypto. Russia’s central bank wants to ban cryptocurrency in all its forms and uses. The blanket ban would include transactions as well as mining crypto. Even though Russia is the world’s third-largest crypto miner by volume, the central bank says crypto is a speculative asset, a “pyramid scheme” that undermines regulators and threatens Russia’s climate policies because mining is very energy-intensive. The proposal comes as the EU is making its own bid to get rid of crypto mining, also citing environmental concerns. Last summer, crypto markets fell but rose again after a similar ban by China sparked a global sell-off. Now, and despite the increased mainstreaming of crypto assets, Bitcoin prices have slumped in recent days due to the Russian proposal and fears that US regulators may soon act on crypto. Still, Moscow isn’t exactly done framing its digital monetary policy: the Russians might permit using gold-backed “stablecoins” and some crypto mining activities under government control.
US on track for August 31 withdrawal; House passes $3.5T plan
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
Is the US on track for the August 31st withdrawal from Afghanistan?
The US is actually doing a pretty good job, getting its own citizens out of Afghanistan despite the chaos that's been seen at the airport and across the country over the last two weeks. It's estimated on Wednesday afternoon, there were about 1,500 citizens of the United States, still in Afghanistan. And some of them, according to Secretary of State Tony Blinken, may not want to leave. The US has been evacuating enormous numbers in the last several days. Over 21,000 people have gotten out. And even though Biden sent his CIA director, William Burns, to potentially negotiate a longer withdrawal date than August 31st with the Taliban, he says, he's going to stick to this deadline. The people who may not get out are the interpreters and helpers that aided the American military, who are native Afghanis, who are probably going to be left behind when the US leaves at the end of the month.
The House narrowly passed the $3.5 trillion budget plan. What's next for the Democrats?
Well, the House has to start putting some details now, underneath that top-line number. Some Democrats have said they're uncomfortable spending as much as $3.5 trillion. And other Democrats have said they're willing to spend that much, but it has to be fully paid for by most likely tax increases. The list of tax increases that Democrats have available to them is very long, but politically, a lot of these things can't get done. There's been a lot of pushback on things like raising the top capital gains rate, raising the top corporate tax rate, and they still have other tax cuts they want to do including reinstating the SALT tax deduction and new tax credits for low-income families and families with children. So what's next is that the House goes back on recess. They're going to reconvene the first or second week of September and start marking up bills to hit that $3.5 trillion number with a goal of passing both, the bipartisan infrastructure bill and, the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill, out of the House by the 27th of September. Then it goes over to the Senate to see what they do there. There's a couple of moderate members who have been real holdouts on a lot of these points in this bill to date.
COVID hypocrisy & misinformation
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here from sunny Nantucket and going to be here for a little bit. Thought we would talk about the latest on COVID. Certainly, we had hoped we'd be talking less about it at this point, at least in terms of the developed world. A combination of the transmissibility of Delta variant and the extraordinary misinformation around vaccines and COVID treatment means that we are not in the position that many certainly had hoped we would be today.
The United States is the biggest problem on this front. We are awash in vaccines. Operation Warp Speed was an enormous success. The best vaccines in the world, the most effective mRNA, the United States doing everything it can to get secure doses for the entire country quick, more quickly than any other major economy in the world, and now we're having a hard time convincing people to take them. The politics around this are nasty and as divided as the country, absolutely not what you want to see in response to a health crisis.
On the left, I'm seeing so much talk about mask mandates and so much hypocrisy. The mayor of Washington, DC announcing a mask mandate for the entire district and literally within hours, she shows up to officiate a wedding and nobody's wearing masks, including the mayor, Muriel Bowser. You remember back, the governor of California, now under a recall campaign, Gavin Newsom, when everything was shut down and he's there at the French Laundry, a great restaurant, having an indoor party with his buddies mask-less when nobody else was doing that. President Obama, former President Obama now about to have 475 people at a big party for his 60th birthday in the (Martha's) Vineyard while you have so many among the Democrats that are saying, "no, we have to have mask mandates when cases are increasing. You shouldn't be gathering in these larger groups."
At the same time, you've got people like Governor DeSantis in Florida, Governor Abbott in Texas, and others that are saying that vaccine mandates among private corporations should be illegal. That if you're a restaurant, if you're a store, you're not allowed to tell people who are coming into your establishment that they have to show proof of vaccination, which strikes me as a ludicrous thing to do. And certainly, given how extraordinarily effective we know these vaccines are, there's just far too much virtue signaling.
We don't need everyone in the country wearing masks. We just need everyone vaccinated. And there need to be consequences otherwise. And yes, I know the vaccines are not yet proven safe for children. I would not make an argument that we should be requiring children to take vaccines until we know that they're safe. But we also know that those children are at extremely low risk for getting sick and dying from the disease. And given the amount of damage lack of attending classes does to kids and their development for well over a year now, the idea that we have teachers unions in the United States that are saying, "no, we refuse to open up classes again this fall given where the country is," that's extraordinary to me. It shouldn't be allowed. The schools have to open across the country. It's not like the danger of the disease is the only danger that's out there. You've got economic damage. You've got sociological and psychological damage. We have to get people, particularly poor people, at able to live normal lives. And who are the ones that can't effectively homeschool or have private tutors? Those are the ones that are going to be most affected by this yet again. So, I think that's a serious problem.
This outrageous politics-first approach on COVID response promotes misinformation. It is a tax on the poor and the uneducated. The wealthiest 1% in the United States are almost all vaccinated. The people with graduate degrees are almost all vaccinated, but the QAnon supporters, the National Enquirer readers, they are not. And if you believe that Trump actually won the presidency and is going to be reinstated in the next few weeks, of course you believe that the Delta variant is a fraud and that the vaccine is mind control. Bad domestic actors are perpetrating this on America. People are profiting from this. Social media companies are allowing this disinformation to persist. It is not coming from the Kremlin. We in the US are damaging ourselves far worse than Moscow or Beijing ever could. And that's in the United States.
And meanwhile, while the Americans are awash in vaccines that we are not taking and that are even going bad in Africa, the continent is almost fully un-vaccinated. 1.3 billion people on the African continent, 1% of that population is fully vaccinated. It's an obscenity. It can only be allowed to persist if we think that people living in Africa somehow aren't fully human beings, that they don't deserve the opportunities, the health care, the ability to live and protect their families, their children the way that we do in the wealthy countries.
I saw Secretary of State Tony Blinken saying that we are, the United States, sharing as many safe and effective vaccines around the world as possible. I couldn't believe he said that. I know Tony and I understand, and he's not a bad guy, I've known him for a long time, and as secretary of state, you have to be diplomatic. You can't always say what you mean. It's certainly why I shouldn't have that job, but this is just a false hood. The United States is not doing anything close to everything we can for the rest of the world.
We are shockingly ungenerous in the ability and willingness to fund and to provide vaccines for those that don't have them. The COVAX Facility so far, 150 million doses delivered. The plan, the modest and reasonable plan for now was 650 million doses. We are 500 million doses short. It's underfunded. You had 1.8 billion per vaccine delivery that was provided for last month, over a billion dollars short of their modest goals. This was the kind of thing, it's not just the United States, pretty much any G20 economy, maybe not Argentina, any individual G20 economy could have done the COVAX funding by themselves, and they didn't. They all looked, I guess, not even at each other because they wouldn't budge. As long as you're taking care of your own country, that's all you need to do.
In this environment at a time that we are facing the worst crisis of our lifetimes, the United States on the one hand, refuses to follow basic science. We are as deeply politicized as any time we've ever experienced it, pointing fingers, calling names, thinking that we are our own worst enemy while we're not taking care of even the basics. And we can so easily afford to do so for those around the world.
It's much easier not to talk about this. It's much easier to not to focus on it. But if we can't get this right for COVID, how are we going to get it right for the bigger crises to come? How do we get it right for climate? How do we get it right for terrorism, for migration? How do we get it right for the next pandemic or the next variants of COVID? It's challenging and it's something we're going to keep talking about, but something I wanted to address today. As so many of us are thinking about summer and enjoying ourselves and our families and our friends, and that's all wonderful, but spare a thought and some action for those that are not so fortunate.
And I hope everyone's doing well. And I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Joe Biden's presidency: biggest surprises, successes and mistakes so far
What surprised Jane Harman, former US Congresswoman (D-CA), most about Joe Biden's presidency? "Number one, he's much more hands-on as a leader than I fully understood. It's coming out now how he runs his meetings and what he does. But number two, and I love this, he's really enjoying the job." Harman, a nine-term member of Congress who served for decades on the major security committees in the House of Representatives, notes that Biden's stint as Vice President was no guarantee of how he would perform. "I think sitting behind that desk, and having the buck stop with him is very different. And I think he fills out the job very well."
In an interview with Ian Bremmer, Harman says Biden has a dimension that none of his four predecessors had, because of his experience in Congress and in foreign policy. She also shares her perspective on Biden's biggest successes as well as some mistakes he's made.
Biden’s foreign policy approach: “Take the foreign out of foreign policy”
Jane Harman, who served nine terms as a US Democratic Congresswoman from California, explains that the Biden administration's approach is "to take the foreign out of foreign policy." Biden's foreign policy strategy starts with restoring alliances, promoting democracy, and making the world safer, prioritizing issues that connect what the US does abroad to concerns at home, says Harman. That means finding a solution to the pandemic both in the US and globally; addressing terrorism abroad and domestically; and climate, which Harman notes, "is a huge part of our security at home and security in the world. Think about it. Half the refugees in the world are climate refugees. They're not terrorism refugees."
Harman, author of the new book, "Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Make Us Less Safe," spoke in an interview with Ian Bremmer.
US national security depends on domestic progress
Jane Harman, a nine-term member of Congress (D-CA) who served for decades on the major security committees in the House of Representatives, discusses the shortcomings of the US national security strategy for the last few decades, and assesses the Biden administration's plans to strengthen it. In an interview with Ian Bremmer, she discusses the priorities for addressing critical issues at home and abroad, from the COVID pandemic to the climate crisis and terrorism. But without a unified and functional Congress, Harman warns, the US is ineffective on matters of security. "Where is Congress? Congress can't get things done because of toxic partisanship, but the other reason it can't get anything done is members don't want to own the consequences. And that is chicken."
Harman, author of the new book, "Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Make Us Less Safe," discusses Joe Biden's presidency so far and gives him high marks on assembling an "A-team" for foreign policy. She adds, 'I'm just hopeful that because he has long term relationships and really a good compass for how to talk to members of Congress, he will be able to get somewhere."