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Trump, Biden & the US election: What could be next?
It’s been a week. In just seven days, former President Trump miraculously survived an assassination attempt, picked J.D. Vance as vice presidential candidate, and delivered the longest acceptance speech in history at the GOP convention in Milwaukee (he also holds the record for the second and third longest acceptance speeches). Oh, and through it all, the Democratic party continued its tailspin into crisis as internal clamor grew for President Biden to step aside. Amazing when the afterthought for the week is whether the sitting president will remain on the ticket for an election just months away. But that's where we are.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer reflects on this pivotal week in US politics and welcomes back media journalist and former CNN show host Brian Stelter on the show alongside Vanderbilt political historian Nicole Hemmer. “We're living in a period of escalating political violence and social and political instability,” Hemmer tells Bremmer. “That was true in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and I think that it's true today."
In a wide-ranging conversation that touches on all the major news of the week, Hemmer and Stelter dig into the political divisions that led to this moment of horrific political violence. “The real divides are not between Democrats and Republicans, although those are real,” Stelter adds. “But the biggest divide that we're seeing is between extremists and those who are moderates, the great silent majority."
Both guests also comment on the media's role in this fraught environment, with Hemmer critiquing prediction-focused coverage and Stelter advocating for better representation of casual news consumers and politically fatigued voters. The three also discuss the likelihood of Biden stepping down, an eventuality that Stelter argues is inevitable. “It is clear the Democratic Party elites are not with Biden. And I don't see that tide turning. I don't see how it changes.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Extremists vs. moderates: The real divide in US politics
In a lively exchange for the latest episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and media journalist Brian Stelter delve into the true nature of political divisions in the United States. Stelter argues that the real divides are not simply between Democrats and Republicans but between extremists and moderates. He emphasizes that "most people, whether they vote Republican or vote Democrat, denounce political violence... they want a stable political system."
Stelter calls these moderates the "great silent majority," but they are overshadowed by the vocal extremists on both ends of the political spectrum. "I wish it was possible to make the normies, the people in the middle, the moderates, more visible, to make their voices louder."
Bremmer and Stelter also discuss the unifying aspects of American society, suggesting that despite apparent divisions, there is significant common ground among the general populace. "Most Americans,” Stelter adds, “have a lot more in common than they realize." And what they have in common, most of all, is a desire to end this constant political chaos.
Watch the full episode: Trump, Biden & the US election: What could be next?
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Trump's close call and the RNC: Brian Stelter and Nicole Hemmer weigh in on a historic week in US politics
Listen: We're watching history happen in real-time. Never before was that fact more apparent than this week, when former President Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt, picked his VP candidate, presided over a united GOP at the Republican Convention, and all while a Democratic Party in disarray continued to clamor for Biden to step aside.
It's amazing that the afterthought for the week is whether the sitting President will remain on the ticket for an election just months away. But that's where we are.
In the latest episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer reflects on this pivotal week in US politics and welcomes back media journalist and former CNN show host Brian Stelter on the show alongside Vanderbilt political historian Nicole Hemmer. “We're living in a period of escalating political violence and social and political instability,” Hemmer tells Bremmer. “That was true in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and I think that it's true today."
In a wide-ranging conversation that touches on all the major news of the week, Hemmer and Stelter dig into the political divisions that led to this moment of horrific political violence. “The real divides are not between Democrats and Republicans, although those are real” Stelter adds. “But the biggest divide that we're seeing is between extremists and those who are moderates, the great silent majority."
Both guests also comment on the media's role in this fraught environment, with Hemmer critiquing prediction-focused coverage and Stelter advocating for better representation of casual news consumers and politically fatigued voters. The three also discuss the likelihood of Biden stepping down, an eventuality that Stelter argues is inevitable. “It is clear the Democratic Party elites are not with Biden. And I don't see that tide turning. I don't see how it changes.”
RNC shows how Trump has transformed GOP
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week: Trump's utter dominance of the GOP at the just-concluded convention.
So the Republican convention just wrapped up and a very different tone and style of the last several conventions. And particularly, you know, you were knocked out in 1992 and woke up today, you probably wouldn't recognize this Republican Party at all.
And that's because of the total dominance of Donald J Trump in the party now, which was really exemplified by his choice of a vice president. JD Vance, very young, senator from Ohio, wasn't an elected official as of two years ago and is likely to be the next vice president of the United States. Contrast this to Mike Pence, Trump's pick in 2016, who was a long-standing conservative but establishment Republican that helped Trump shore up his weaknesses at the time with evangelical voters.
Today, Trump doesn't really have any weaknesses in the Republican Party. He is their leader. He's their most popular person. He just survived an assassination attempt. And you saw that affect all over there of the Republican National Convention this week, particularly when it came to issues like trade and immigration, where the party has taken a significantly tougher line than ever has before and has moved in a significantly more nationalist and populist direction. Contrast this to the George W Bush era, or the era of even the last two speakers, prior to Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, and John Boehner, neither of whom were major presences at this convention. Just to show you how far the Republican Party has moved from its roots, even from the pre-Trump days.
Another unusual thing about the convention was that last night before Trump's speech, it was wrestling day. Hulk Hogan showed up, and Linda McMahon showed up. Dana White, the president of UFC, showed up, the Ultimate Fighting Championship. You don't expect to see these people at political conventions. But what they really reflect is kind of the heart and soul of the Trump campaign. Hulkamania is a throwback to the 1990s. And Dana White represents a demographic that Trump is hoping to make central to his political movement, which is young men. And young white men, young Hispanic men, and young black men are all groups that Trump is doing very well with and probably will be one of the keys to his victories in the fall if he wins.
You wouldn't expect any convention bounce coming out of this. Convention bounces are a little bit of a thing of the past. And Trump was really speaking to his base last night in a very long, rambling, rally-style speech. Not what you normally expect on primetime TV.
Why Trump really wanted JD Vance as running mate
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How did JD Vance, who once called Trump “America's Hitler,” become his VP pick?
Well, of course, that isn't exactly what he said. He said that he goes back and forth between thinking that Trump is either a cynical asshole like Richard Nixon, who could actually be good for the country, or he could be America's Hitler. How come no one's actually reporting the actual quote? And it's because the media's freaking horrible is why. And because the algorithms promote stupidity and fake news, and disinformation. But the answer to the question is because Vance is really smart, very aligned with Trump. He's very, let's say, situationally ideological and wants to win, doesn't bring a lot of votes for Trump, but Trump doesn’t think he needs them. Last time around, when Trump was running and picked Mike Pence, he was looking for an establishment figure that would get him more votes and that would make Trump seem more approachable and attractive to a larger group of voters. Trump now thinks he can win the election either way, so he's picking the person he really wants. That's what's going on.
Will the EU reelect Ursula von der Leyen as president?
Almost certainly, yes. There are still questions about where exactly she's getting the votes for. She can't afford to lose a lot of people from the parties that, in principle, support her in a secret ballot. But there aren't good options for her, and everyone I talk to in positions of leadership in the EU thinks that she is a layup there.
Why did Orbán choose to visit Russia and China despite knowing it would upset EU leaders?
Well, mostly because he wants to portray himself and not just in the six-month rotating chair of the European Union, but more broadly as the person who can represent the Chinese and the Russian view, that gives him more leverage, especially if Trump becomes president. That’s why he went to Mar-a-Lago right after NATO, saying, I'm the one in the EU that knows what these people are saying. I'm the person that can connect with you. It's not like he's trying to leave the European Union. He needs their money, but he wants to position himself more strongly and as the outlier, that's the easiest way for him to do it.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Trump's pick for VP: JD Vance ›
- Who is JD Vance, Trump’s VP pick? ›
- Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit ›
- Biden and his allies dig in as he delivers forceful NATO speech ›
- Biden’s NATO presser moves things ... sideways ›
- Trump, Biden & the US election: What could be next? - GZERO Media ›
Election 2024: Are American allies worried about the US presidential election?
What do NATO allies think of conversations among US voters about President Biden’s age and ability to serve a second term? Are they worried a second Trump presidency will negatively impact the war in Ukraine? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in DC for his take on a potential second Biden or Trump administration. Sikorksi says Poland will have a partner and ally in whoever ends up in the Oval Office.
“Once you start interfering in the internal party, political affairs of other countries, you’re on a very slippery slope,” Sikorski warns, “Poland wants to have the best possible relations with the US, whoever is your president goes without saying.”
Despite concerns from Democratic voters about Biden’s stamina and cognitive abilities, Sikorski says that at a recent summit, he found Biden “focused, strategic, and actually quite amusing.” He also notes that the Polish government has good relations with both candidates and disputes the idea that a second Trump term would limit further US aid to Ukraine. He concedes that Donald Trump was right on many issues, like the necessity of all NATO members to meet requirements for defense spending. Ultimately, Trump responds to strength and power, and accepting defeat or a settlement on Putin’s terms in Ukraine may not align with the image he wants to project on the global stage.
Watch the full episode: Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Ian Bremmer on debate: A big loss for Biden ›
- Ukraine accepts EU trade restrictions to appease Poland ›
- Biden vs Trump foreign policy: Political scientist Stephen Walt weighs in ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Biden's second foreign policy crisis ›
- US election security and the threats of foreign interference: CISA Director Jen Easterly discusses - GZERO Media ›
The Veepstakes: Who will be Donald Trump's VP pick?
With Donald Trump set to announce his vice presidential running mate in the coming days, we explore the possible contenders — and their viability.
Tim Scott
Tim Scott
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who withdrew from the race for the Republican nomination last November, has been campaigning hard for Donald Trump – and he has his eye on becoming vice president. But will the GOP’s only Black senator get Trump’s VP nod?
Raised by a single mom in Charleston, South Carolina, Scott became the first Black Republican elected to any office in the Palmetto State since the 19th century when he won his 1995 Charleston city council race. In 2008, he won a seat in the statehouse and went on to the House of Representatives in 2010. After one term, then-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley appointed him to fill a vacant Senate seat, and he has easily won reelection three times. He is arguably the most recognizable elected Black Republican in office today. (Could Tim Scott become Trump's No. 2? Continue to read here.)
Elise Stefanik
Elise Stefanik
Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, a rising star of the GOP, is one of the few women on former President Donald Trump’s vice president shortlist.
When Stefanik first entered the national political scene in 2014, she was considered the new face of the Republican Party. At the time, she was the youngest woman ever elected to Congress and widely considered a moderate. Fast-forward to 2024, and Stefanik has drastically shifted to the right. She’s a full-blown MAGA Republican, routinely defending Trump and echoing his talking points – including the white nationalist “great replacement” conspiracy theory. (Could Stefanik, now a full-blown MAGA Republican, become Trump's running mate? Continue to read here.)
JD Vance
JD Vance
CNP/INSTARimages.com via Reuters
From holler to white collar. That’s the unusual life arc of J.D. Vance, the 39-year-old junior senator from Ohio.
Born into extreme poverty in rural southern Ohio, he grew up in the holler – “the hollow” – surrounded by abuse, addiction, and despair. But he made it out: He joined the Marines, graduated from Yale Law School, and became a successful tech venture capitalist.
He recounted all of this in his bestselling 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” which became required reading after Trump’s shock victory over Hillary Clinton spurred interest in the disaffection of white working-class America. In the book, Vance criticized a culture of victimhood and dependency among poor whites while also blasting the establishment’s condescension and neglect. (Could Vance make it to the very top? Continue to read here.)
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
Mariana Robertson via Reuters
Florida’s senior senator earned the nickname “Lil’ Marco” for challenging Donald Trump during the 2016 primaries, but he has since forged a close alliance with the former president – so much so that some believe he could be tapped for No. 2.
Rubio was born in Miami to Cuban immigrants who arrived before the 1959 communist revolution — contrary to claims he had long made of them fleeing from Fidel Castro. He speaks fluent Spanish and got his start in politics in 1998 as a city commissioner in West Miami, where the 2000 census showed 87% of residents spoke Spanish as a first language. (Could Rubio stand a chance of becoming the first Latino VP? Find out more here.)
Doug Burgum
Doug Burgum
When Doug Burgum launched a campaign for the Republican presidential nomination focused on economic growth, energy production, and national security, few Americans outside of the Flickertail State had heard of the former software CEO turned governor of North Dakota. Just to get the 40,000 unique donors needed to make the debate stage, he had to give out $20 gift cards in return for $1 campaign donations. While he’s still far from a household name, he has emerged as a dark horse favorite to become Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate.
Who is he? The67-year-old Burgum hails from Arthur, North Dakota — a town of roughly 300 residents — and worked as a consultant at McKinsey & Co before leveraging his family farm to start an accounting software company called Great Plains Software, which he sold to Microsoft for $1.1 billion in 2001. (Would Trump fancy a biz-savvy VP pick? Find out more here.)
Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate?
Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? Vivek Ramaswamy, Ivanka Trump, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Tulsi Gabbard & Byron Donalds
Luisa Vieira/GZERO Media
Donald Trump has been teasing his vice presidential pick for weeks, but with the Republican National Convention kicking off next week, he’s likely to make it official — and soon.
Right now, the front-runners appear to be Sens. Marco Rubio and JD Vance, along with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. But what about the contenders who aren’t grabbing headlines yet remain on Trump’s radar? Here is everything you need to know about the dark-horse candidates.
Nikki Haley: We know, we know, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s former ambassador to the UN fired shots at the former president as his main opponent in the primary. But just because she once challenged him doesn’t mean she wouldn’t be a valuable running mate. (Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? Find out more about his wildcard prospects here.)
- Could Doug Burgum be a biz-savvy VP pick for Trump? ›
- JD Vance: Started from the bottom, now he’s here ›
- Trump gambles to woo Black voters ›
- Trump's VP pick remains a secret ›
- Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? ›
- Trump's VP pick: The short list ›
- Trump's pick for VP: JD Vance - GZERO Media ›
Will the Trump attack shift GOP approach at the RNC?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week: The Republican National Convention after an assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
Wild weekend with the first assassination attempt in over 40 years against President Donald Trump, former President Donald Trump, this weekend that barely missed lodging a bullet in the back of his brain by several inches. That could have been a history-altering shot if it hadn't missed. And Trump was lucky to get out alive. But he also was able to rally his supporters and the base of the Republican Party behind him. And we're seeing that online this weekend, which is great timing for President Trump as he begins the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Trump has already said that the assassination attempt is changing his approach towards the convention and the campaign, offering up that he's going to take a more moderate and unifying tone, as opposed to one that was attacking current President Joe Biden. Biden gave an Oval Office address last night to also ask for unity in American politics, which is something that has been lacking in recent years as the two parties have increasingly defined themselves in opposition to one another. Prolonged unity is probably too much to ask for both of these guys. There is too much at stake for both parties. Both bases believe that this election is an existential risk to their way of life, and they are willing to fight it out until the very, very end.
But you still might get a very different tone at the RNC than you would have otherwise, as Republicans attempt to capitalize on the momentum from Trump's assassination attempt. No big policy announcements coming this week; the Biden campaign is going to try to get his footing underneath them, once again, as he tries to recover from the terrible debate performance he had two weeks ago. The conventions typically give a small but fading bounce to the candidate that's holding them, and I wouldn't really expect anything different this time around, even as Donald Trump looks like he's starting to open up a reasonable lead in what still looks like a fairly close race.
Thanks for watching, and stay tuned for more this week on the RNC.