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Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen
President Tsai Ing-wen visits last African state that recognizes Taiwan's independence
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen is currently on a diplomatic visit to Eswatini, the country’s last remaining ally on the vast African continent. The southern African country is hardly a natural ally for democratic Taiwan: King Mswati III has ruled the landlocked country of 1.1 million with an iron fist since he assumed the throne in 1986 at age 18. It’s the region’s last absolute monarchy.
What’s Tsai doing there? Eswatini is one of just 13 remaining countries worldwide that has not ditched ties with Taiwan in favor of relations with China, which views the self-ruled territory as part of the mainland. Since Tsai took office in 2016, Beijing has coaxed nine countries into switching alliances, most recently Honduras, and continues to pressure other holdouts to follow suit.
Tsai’s trip – notably on the heels of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to South Africa – saw Taipei dole out $1 million in funds to the kingdom. And it comes ahead of Taiwan’s election in Jan. 2024, where Tsai’s VP William Lai is ahead in the polls. (Tsai is term limited.)
Voter intention for Taiwan's presidential poll in 2024.
The Graphic Truth: Taiwan's surprising third-party challenger
Taiwan goes to the polls in January 2024 in what is likely the most consequential presidential election since the self-ruled island embraced democracy in 1996. As usual, the vote will be all about ... China.
Looking to replace term-limited President Tsai Ing-wen are VP William Lai, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, and Hou Yu-ih, a former top cop nominated by the opposition Kuomintang Party. The DPP and the KMT have always dominated Taiwanese politics, with the former taking a tougher line on relations with the mainland. But this time a third-party candidate wants to give them a run for their money.
Enter Ko Wen-je, a two-time former mayor of the capital, Taipei, who's running on the first-ever presidential ticket of the upstart Taiwan People's Party. Ko — who sometimes expresses himself awkwardly because he has Asperger’s syndrome — has been grabbing headlines after recently placing second in the presidential polls ahead of Hou.
Ko is gaining traction thanks to his popularity with young voters fed up with the establishment parties, says Eurasia Group analyst Ava Shen. But he also has many detractors.
"To those who support him, Ko is a much-needed third force that could alter the polarized landscape in Taiwanese politics," Shen explains. "To those who are critical of him, Ko is an inexperienced politician with controversial gaffes and an unclear platform, unfit for national government."
Still, the TPP candidate offers something different to voters: Ko doesn't bang people over the head about relations with China, preferring to focus on domestic issues such as energy and housing — as if he were running for local office instead of the presidency.
When he does talk about how he'd deal with Xi Jinping, Ko styles himself as a pragmatist who will neither provoke China like the DPP nor defer to it like the KMT. Yet, his enemies see the TPP presidential hopeful as a tad closer to KMT appeasement, fueling speculation that Ko might be a Manchurian Candidate.
Shen doesn’t buy it. “Beijing still prefers Hou and the KMT to win; it is not yet clear how Beijing feels about Ko and the TPP,” she says. “Nevertheless, Ko's position on cross-strait relations appears to be more moderate than Lai’s — which could appeal to China.”
Whether or not Ko is cozier with Xi than he lets on, he faces long odds of winning Taiwan's presidency, since the TPP lacks an established voter base. What's more, KMT supporters are putting pressure on Ko to become Hou's running mate and consolidate the anti-DPP vote.
So far, though, the TPP hopeful says he's in the race to win it. But if by doing so he ends up handing the election to Lai, Beijing will not be pleased.
Russian reservists recruited during a partial mobilization of troops attend a ceremony before departing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict zone, in the Rostov region, Russia October 31, 2022.
What We're Watching: Russian draft goes online, abortion pill ruling, US inflation slows, Taiwan gets new presidential candidate, Biden bets big on EVs
Russia’s digital draft
If you’re a young male citizen of Russia, it just got harder for you to hide from the war in Ukraine. The State Duma, Russia’s parliament, approved legislation on Tuesday that allows the government to send a military summons online instead of serving the papers in person. The upper house swiftly passed it into law on Wednesday.
“The summons is considered received from the moment it is placed in the personal account of a person liable for military service,” explains the chairman of the Duma’s defense committee, though the Kremlin insists no large-scale draft is imminent. If the person summoned fails to report for service within 20 days of the date listed on the summons, the state can suspend his driver’s license, deny him the right to travel abroad, and make it impossible for him to get a loan.
The database that provides names of potential draftees is assembled from medical, educational, and residential records, as well as insurance and tax data. Thousands of young Russians have already fled their country. Many more may soon try to join them.
Abortion pill stays on the market, but access rolled back
As the battle over abortion medication continues in the US, a federal appeals court has ruled that mifepristone – a drug approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2000 – can remain on the market until the full case can be heard, likely by the Supreme Court.
Still, the court – made up of three appellate judges all appointed by Republican presidents – ruled that mifepristone cannot be sent by mail and rolled back a 2016 rule allowing it to be used up to 10-weeks gestation, dropping it back to seven weeks. It also rolled back other measures enforced by the Biden administration to enhance access after the gutting of Roe v. Wade.
This decision comes after a Trump-appointed, pro-life judge in Texas recently ordered a temporary stay on approval of mifepristone. Less than an hour later, another federal judge in Spokane, Washington, ruled that the drug must remain available in 17 Democratic-run states plus Washington, DC.
Importantly, the appeals court appeared to back the government's view that taking an approved drug off the market that accounts for more than half of all abortions nationwide would have “significant public consequences.”
As expected, abortion rights are shaping up to be one of the biggest political issues in the country. In Florida, Republicans are trying to fight a recently passed law banning abortion at six weeks, pushing for an outright ban.
US inflation cools — smartphones FTW
Good news for American households as US inflation fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in March. Prices grew at an annual clip of 5%, according to the latest figures released Wednesday. That’s down from 6% in February, marking the ninth consecutive month of falling inflation.
The highlights? Well, if you want to do some shopping in the US, now’s the time to cop a new smartphone, which will cost you 24% less than a year ago. And that summer road trip is on – gas prices are down more than 17%. At the same time, we remain “yolked,” as it were, to the Great Egg Crisis of 2023 — prices are up more than 30% despite easing a bit since February.
More broadly, that headline figure of 5% is still more than twice the pre-pandemic norm, and core inflation — which excludes volatile prices for fuel and food — is running at a toasty 5.6%.
That’ll keep the US Fed in the hot seat as it meets again in early May. Will they raise interest rates once more in a bid to finish off inflation? Or will they stand pat, worried about tipping the economy into a recession?
Will this man become Taiwan's next president?
Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party on Wednesday nominated VP William Lai as its candidate in the January 2024 presidential election.
Lai is widely viewed as a stand-in for term-limited President Tsai Ing-wen, reelected by a landslide in 2020. That means a tough line on China, which has made Tsai a darling in the West and reviled by Beijing. Lai used to support Taiwanese independence openly but has since moderated his position to align with the DPP's: We don’t need to formally break with the mainland because we’re already de-facto independent.
It's unclear who Lai will face, since the opposition Kuomintang Party — which, officially, is not pro-China but favors closer ties with China than the DPP — has yet to pick its candidate. (Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of Foxconn, the Taiwanese company that makes iPhones in China for Apple, is mulling another run.)
The vote will be Taiwan's most closely watched presidential election since 1996, when the self-ruled island ended decades of authoritarian rule. China responded to the democratic vibes by flexing its then-weak military muscles … until the US made it back off. This time, though, expect major Chinese fireworks if Beijing's candidate doesn't come out on top.
Biden’s ambitious new EV proposal
The Biden administration has proposed a new measure that would sharply accelerate the American auto industry’s transition to electric vehicles, and not everyone is happy about it.
The draft marks a big shift from Washington’s current carrots-based approach to boosting EV production to one that relies more on sticks. It would require carmakers to derive 60% of their sales revenue from electric vehicles by 2030, or face penalties. Currently, under a 2021 plan, the target is closer to 50% and manufacturers are allowed to opt in only if they want to. Under that plan, a range of subsidies and tax breaks aimed to incentivize consumers and manufacturers to ditch dirty fuel guzzlers.
Carmakers are already pushing back, saying that changes to assembly lines and supply chains will be expensive and take years to implement. But the Biden administration says the necessary funds were included in the Inflation Reduction Act, which earmarked $31 billion in subsidies for EV’s and tax credits for EV manufacturers.
Expect this to become a heated political issue in the coming months. Texas, despite being a leading investor in EV networks, has sued the federal government over the current EV standards, arguing that they are an overreach that violates states’ rights.
Handout photo dated January 26, 2023 shows Air Force 33rd Search and Rescue Squadron preparing to land aboard an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG 65) in the Philippine Sea.
After China pretends to invade Taiwan, US & Philippines rehearse war against ... China
The US and the Philippines have held annual Balikatan (shoulder to shoulder) joint military drills since 1991. But this year's exercise is a bigger deal than usual.
For one thing, the drills — which kicked off Tuesday — involve more than 17,000 troops from the two countries, making them the largest ever. For another, they are partly being held in disputed waters in the South China Sea — claimed almost entirely by Beijing and partly by Manila.
More importantly, the war games come on the heels of China's own military muscle-flexing near Taiwan,rehearsing an invasion of the self-ruled island as payback for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's hangout with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
For the US — which rejects Beijing’s expanded maritime sovereignty — the drills aim to send China a clear message: We will defend our allies as you move to militarize the South China Sea.
What’s more, Uncle Sam wants the region to remain free for navigation and seaborne trade. That’s why the US Navy patrols the disputed waters despite the risk of running into Chinese “research” vessels.
But for China, the exercises are proof that the Americans are pushing the Filipinos to help them contain Chinese military power in the region. (For the first time, this year’s war games feature target practice on a mock fishing boat, Beijing’s shadow navy of "little blue men" in the disputed waters.)
The odd man out is the Philippines, once again left walking a tightrope between the US and China.
Since his May 2022 election, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — having seen the writing on the wall of rising anti-China sentiment among Filipinos under Rodrigo Duterte, his pro-China predecessor — has been inching closer to Washington. One important recent gesture was granting the US military access to army camps in the northern part of the archipelago, very close to Taiwan.
Yet, Marcos previously made a much-publicized visit to China, the Philippines’ top trading partner and source of foreign investment. The upshot is that with a weak economy and an even weaker military, the country can't afford to lose either the US security umbrella or the ability to do biz with China.
Meanwhile, the South China Sea remains a flashpoint for great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific. And growing US-China tensions over Taiwan will only raise the stakes in the future.
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meets Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.
What We're Watching: Tsai in California, Lukashenko in Moscow, no Easter in Nicaragua
After US speaker meets Taiwan's prez, all eyes on China
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday met Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen in California, the last stop of her trip to the Americas. McCarthy is the most senior US official to meet a Taiwanese leader on American soil since 1979, when Washington officially recognized Beijing – rather than Taipei – as “China.”
The meeting was a bold move by the Taiwanese leader, given that China considers Taiwan part of its territory and is triggered by even the slightest hint of Americans normalizing ties with Taipei. And it definitely won’t help improve the US-China relationship. But so far, Beijing’s response has been more meow than growl.
Ahead of the tête-à-tête in California, China sent fighter jets and naval vessels near the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. Beijing followed that up by dispatching an aircraft carries and announcing spot inspections of Taiwanese ships.
Still, it wasn’t quite the massive show of force put on by China right after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last August. Blame bad timing: Xi Jinping likely doesn’t want to freak out French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, who Xi is hosting this week at a very awkward time for China-EU relations.
Lukashenko’s delicate dance
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko went to Moscow on Wednesday to pay a visit to his ally (?), friend (?), overlord (?), and partner Vladimir Putin. Whenever these two meet, Lukashenko must tread carefully. Since December 1999, Russia and Belarus have been part of a “Union State” meant to deepen economic and defense cooperation between the two former Soviet countries.
But now Putin, frustrated by a war gone wrong, is nudging Lukashenko toward further integration steps that appear to expand Russian power. Lukashenko has good reason to fear that full “integration” would allow giant Russia to swallow little Belarus whole. But he also can’t resist too aggressively, because he has faced pro-democracy protests at home that might have brought down his regime had Putin not come to his rescue.
For this reason, Lukashenko must continue a delicate dance. He allows Russia to use his country as a staging ground for war on Ukraine, and as a location for the Kremlin’s tactical nuclear weapons too, but he still resists Putin’s pressure to send Belarusian troops to join the fight.
Nicaraguan strongman cancels Easter
The Nicaraguan government is banning Holy Week street celebrations as it cracks down on critics amid a spat with the influential Catholic church.
Tensions have simmered between the church and strongman President Daniel Ortega since the anti-government protests of 2018, when his government accused clerics — who were seeking to mediate between the two sides — of supporting the streets. And amid a sweeping crackdown on dissent, Bishop Ronaldo Alvarez, a prominent Ortega critic, was sentenced in February to a 26-year prison sentence for treason, inflaming tensions in the fiercely Catholic country.
Last month, the government suspended ties with the Holy See altogether after Pope Francis called the government of Ortega – a former Marxist guerilla who somewhat unconvincingly reinvented himself as a man of faith 15 years ago – a ‘crude dictatorship’ and compared its repression of Catholics to Nazi Germany.
As Easter Sunday approaches in Nicaragua, it’s fair to ask: WWJD?
Finland joins NATO in face off against Russia
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Finland officially joining NATO, what does it mean for Russia?
Well, this is exactly what Putin did not want to have happen, right? Ostensibly, the reason for his invasion into Ukraine was because Ukraine was moving towards NATO and that was unacceptable. Of course, now you've got 800 additional miles of border with very well-defended Finland, part of NATO as of today, facing off against Russia. This is just one of many examples, but a very important, not just symbolic, one of how Putin made a very serious misjudgment in the way the West would respond to that invasion.
Is there a global impact on US foreign relations with Trump's indictment?
Not immediately, but for those of you that thought there was a reprieve in the level of polarization between left and right, Democrats, Republicans, as well as the relentless coverage of former President Donald Trump, it is now back. Remember, he was thrown off of Twitter and Facebook. And Fox News wasn't going to cover him. The Wall Street Journal was going negative. Now he's back. Now the GOP is all aligned with Trump in criticizing this indictment, saying it's politicized. Almost every Republican agrees and a majority of Independents do, even a decent minority of Democrats, you put that all together, that means it's much more likely Trump becomes the nominee, and that, of course, has a view in how Canadians and others around the world look at the United States, and the potential durability of commitments in foreign policy are presently being made. It's very important.
How will the Tsai-McCarthy meeting affect US-Taiwan-China relations?
Well, obviously less than when former speaker Pelosi went to Taiwan last year for a couple reasons. One, it's not in Taiwan. McCarthy backed off of his trip when Tsai actually called and said, "Hey, we don't want you coming to Taiwan." Remember when Pelosi came, there were significant economic sanctions that came from China, that just hurts Taiwan. They don't need that again. They don't need the escalation of tensions around the Taiwan Straits, and also the fact that it's opposition party. Clearly the Chinese understand this is not being driven by Biden, by his allies. I still expect that there's going to be significant performative negativity from the Chinese government in direct response to the meeting.
The crew for the first lunar trip in 50 years was just announced. What's the significance?
Well, it's nice to be going around the moon again, and it's also nice that the United States and the Canadians working together, three Americans, one Canadian, and the cool thing is if something goes wrong in the mission, the Canadian gets eaten. That's the agreement, right? It's kind of nice they're doing that.
- Finland’s next step ›
- Russia has pushed Finland towards full NATO membership: former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb ›
- Trump's indictment is problematic ›
- Women in power — Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen ›
- War in space? Time to update space law ›
- Podcast: NATO’s Russia problem: the increasing danger of military confrontation between nuclear powers - GZERO Media ›
- Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war - GZERO Media ›
Viewpoint: As an angry China looms, Taiwan’s president seeks support in the Americas
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen will travel to the US, Guatemala, and Belize from March 29 to April 7 against a backdrop of deepening tensions with China, which regards Taiwan as a breakaway province. In the US, Tsai is expected to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and in Guatemala and Belize she aims to shore up relations with two of the last 13 countries in the world that recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty. We asked experts at Eurasia Group to explain the motivations behind Tsai’s visit.
Why is Tsai making this trip now?
Anna Ashton, China team: McCarthy had said he wanted to visit Taiwan when he became speaker, like his predecessor Nancy Pelosi did. Once he gained the speaker’s gavel in January, Tsai appears to have decided to go and see McCarthy instead and use the trip as an opportunity to see Taiwan’s supporters in Central America as well. Belize Prime Minister Johnny Briceno traveled to Taipei in 2021, and Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei had invited Tsai to visit his country. The timing of Tsai’s effort to bolster support in the region is fortuitous given Honduras’s announcement on March 25 that it was switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.
The framing of the issue of recognition as a binary choice originated in the aftermath of China’s civil war, when both the Chinese Communist Party on the mainland and the Chiang Kai-shek-led government in Taiwan claimed to be the only legitimate rulers of China. Beijing steadily made headway winning recognition away from Taipei, and in 1971, the UN General Assembly switched recognition to Beijing. Using a combination of political pressure and economic incentives, China has been peeling off other Taiwan supporters ever since.
How big of a deal is Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy?
Anna: Tsai will stop in Los Angeles to see McCarthy at the end of her trip (and will make another stop in New York at the beginning). As the third in line for the US presidency, McCarthy will be the most senior US official to meet with a sitting Taiwan president on US soil. Beijing has bristled historically at Taiwan presidents visiting the US in any capacity. In the mid-1990s, then-President Lee Teng-hui’s trip to give a speech at Cornell University, his alma mater, prompted the Chinese to fire a barrage of missiles into the waters of the Taiwan Strait and the US to send a large fleet to the area in response. Tsai has made previous stops in the US during her time in office, but McCarthy’s official reception will amplify the diplomatic significance of her upcoming stop in California, where she will also reportedly give remarks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
Why did McCarthy opt to see her there and not go to Taiwan like Pelosi did?
Anna: Prior to Pelosi’s Aug. 2022 trip, there had not been a visit by a sitting House speaker since Newt Gingrich stopped in Taiwan in 1997 as part of a broader itinerary focused on mainland China. After assuming the role of speaker early this year, McCarthy reportedly began planning for a spring visit to Taiwan. But Tsai’s administration is said to have urged McCarthy to accept a visit from Tsai instead. Beijing responded to Pelosi’s trip with live-fire military exercises in the strait and more aggressive incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone ever since. Ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election in January 2024, Tsai was wary of an even more forceful reaction if McCarthy came. Though not running for reelection, she wants to position her party as able to protect Taiwan’s de facto independence without overly provoking Beijing.
Clayton Allen, US politics team: McCarthy likely opted to go along with the Tsai administration’s request because US policymakers are more cognizant of the role their actions may play in intensifying tensions with China. Amid clashes with China over concerns it could provide military assistance to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, a visit to Taiwan by McCarthy now could provoke an even more aggressive reaction than that of Pelosi. An in-person meeting with Tsai in Los Angeles will still allow McCarthy to demonstrate his tough-on-China bona fides.
How might China respond to her meeting with McCarthy?
Anna: It will likely be angry, but there is little question that Los Angeles is a less provocative venue than Taipei. Any show of military force in response is likely to, at most, mirror activities undertaken in the wake of Pelosi’s visit.
How will Tsai's visit play into US domestic politics on China?
Clayton: Anti-China sentiment is at an all-time high among US voters, and policymakers are competing to show who is more hawkish toward Beijing. McCarthy, a Republican, is under pressure to demonstrate he is at least as aggressive as Pelosi, his Democratic predecessor. A meeting in California is less useful to that goal than a trip to Taipei, but the optics of meeting directly with Tsai will go quite a way to putting him on equal ground with his predecessor.
Longer term, McCarthy’s meeting with Tsai indicates that congressional support for Taiwan is unlikely to abate, and efforts to expand military cooperation will remain popular. President Joe Biden’s administration, meanwhile, is likely to prioritize efforts to stabilize a steadily deteriorating US-China relationship over near-term political benefit; no White House officials have plans to meet with Tsai while she is in the US.
How might Honduras's recent decision to switch recognition to China affect the Central America leg of Tsai’s trip?
Yael Sternberg, Latin America team: It ups the pressure. Honduras’ decision reflects a combination of economic and political motives. The country reportedly has been seeking a $2 billion loan from Beijing. While Chinese officials reportedly haven’t announced specific investment or financing commitments, they have indicated a willingness to increase their imports of Honduran products. Meanwhile, the country’s relations with the US have been deteriorating, thwarting Washington’s attempts to keep Honduras on Taiwan’s side.
China is sure to redouble its effort to woo Taiwan’s remaining Central American supporters, though Guatemala and Belize have shown no signs of wavering. Guatemala has a presidential election coming up in May, and whoever wins is likely to broadly maintain the same policies as the current administration.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.
French President Emmanuel Macron.
What We’re Watching: A big day for Macron, Taiwan’s friend list, Russia droning on
A tense France waits
It’s a big day for French President Emmanuel Macron. After months of protests, strikes, and piling up trash, the National Assembly is set to decide on whether – and how – to vote on the president’s very unpopular pension reform plan, which would raise the national retirement age by two years to 64. (For a reminder of what’s at stake with this reform, why Macron says it is necessary, and why two-thirds of French despise it, see our explainer here.)
With only a slim majority in the lower house, Macron’s bloc needs support from at least some center-right lawmakers from Les Republicains to see this through, but it is still unclear if he’ll have the numbers, particularly since some of his own coalition members say they won't back the bill.
Macron now faces a very tough choice: call for a vote and risk losing the fight over his biggest domestic priority, which would see him turned into a lame duck president for the remainder of his five-year term. Or trigger a constitutional loophole that would rush the bill through without a vote but risk setting the streets on fire. If he chooses the latter, unions warn, his government will pay a hefty price...
Honduras unfriends Taiwan
(The People's Republic of) China swiped one of Taiwan's few remaining diplomatic chips this week when Honduras announced it'll change official recognition of China's government from Taipei to Beijing.
It's unclear why Honduran President Xiomara Castro — who promised to switch sides before she was elected in 2021 but then walked it back once in power — changed her mind again. Regardless, Honduras’ U-turn will surely overshadow Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit next week to Central America. Taiwan still has friends there in Belize and Guatemala, but Xi Jinping is spending big in the region to counter Taipei's diplomatic clout.
China, for its part, is paying more attention to the second leg of Tsai's trip. She also plans to travel to California to meet US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who finally decided against irking Beijing by emulating his predecessor with his own Taiwan visit.
Where’s the drone?
After the encounter between a Russian fighter jet and an American-made drone above the Black Sea, some have warned of a risk of an escalation in the Ukraine war that pits Russia directly against the US. That’s extremely unlikely.
The Biden administration, which on Thursday gave the US military the green light to release footage of the crash, has been clear and consistent that its support for Ukraine won’t include actions that bring US and NATO soldiers into direct conflict with Russian forces. And though Vladimir Putin has tried to persuade Russians and the world that Russia’s at war with the West, he has avoided any action that might push his military into a broader war it would quickly lose. (If Putin wanted a wider war, it would be very easy to start one.)
Nor is this incident particularly unusual. As the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War noted on Tuesday, “Russian forces have used coercive signaling against US and allied flights and naval vessels for decades in multiple theaters without triggering conflict.” The US will continue to use drones in the Black Sea to provide Ukraine with intel on Russian actions. But there is one aspect of this story we’re still watching: Can Russia recover the wreckage of the drone? If so, and it’s in decent condition, it might give Russian engineers access to advanced drone technologies they don’t already have.