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Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba arrives for a group photograph with his new cabinet members at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, October 1, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Ishiba forms his Cabinet, Haiti plagued by hunger, Tunisia jails opposition candidate, Eurozone inflation drops, Cambodian journalist arrested
2: He may think women should inherit the imperial thrones, but that doesn’t mean Japan’s Prime Minister-elect Shigeru Ishiba is an equal opportunity employer. Of his 19 newly appointed Cabinet ministers, only two are women, whom he’s appointed as children’s policy minister and education minister. His appointments also included two former defense ministers Ishiba has worked with in the past – one as foreign minister, another as his defense chief – signaling the new PM’s focus on security issues.
5.4 million: Hunger amid horrifying gang violence in Haiti has led nearly 6,000 people to the brink of starvation, according to a new report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Nearly half the 11-million-strong country – a whopping 5.4 million Haitians – are facing crisis levels of hunger and famine. The Kenyan-led intervention force has had its UN mandate extended by a year, but an effort to turn it into a formal UN peacekeeping mission was stymied by China and Russia.
12: Running for office in Tunisia can win you … years behind bars, apparently. Ayachi Zammel, a candidate in the country’s Oct. 6 presidential election, is facing 12 years in jail for cases related to voter endorsements, his lawyer said. Zammel, who remains on the ballot, was one of just two candidates approved by Tunisia's electoral authority ISIE to challenge President Kais Saied.
1.8: European homebuyers may have cause to celebrate: Inflation in the Eurozone last month dropped to 1.8%, coming in below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time in three years. As a result, the ECB is expected to drop the rate by a quarter point when it meets on Oct. 17.
2: Award-winning journalist Mech Dara has been arrested and charged for social media posts that could “incite social unrest,” a Cambodian court said. Dara, who has reported on corruption and human trafficking, faces a two-year sentence if convicted, and human rights groups are calling for his release.Tunisia's President Kais Saied, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte shake hands during the signing of a "strategic partnership"
EU-Tunisia migration deal falls short of expectations
The EU has been tightening its migration policies since over one million refugees, mainly from Syria, arrived between 2015 and 2016. Millions more Ukrainian refugees have arrived in the EU this past year, further increasing the pressure to limit migration.
What the EU wants? For Tunisia to act as its border patrol and migrant reception center, making Tunisia a “safe third party” where migrants can be sent back to before being deported back to their home countries. The UK has a similar deal with Rwanda.
Migration has become increasingly contentious in the EU, especially since a deadly shipwreck killed 600 migrants last month. Soon after, Dutch PM Mark Rutte chose to step down rather than relax strict immigration policy, a move seen as a reflection of the potency of Europe’s rising anti-immigration sentiment.
What the EU actually gets? Tunisia will bolster its border patrol, but it’s drawing the line at being a safe third-party country for migrants generally – meaning Tunis rejects the UK-Rwanda model. “Tunisia should receive anyone who has left its territory illegally provided they haven't reached the European shores,” says Eurasia Group’s Tunisian expert Omar Monieb. Tunisia will only receive non-Tunisian migrants if the traffickers' boats are stopped and diverted back to Tunisia while still en route.
Might Tunis change its tune and accept non-Tunisian immigrants in the future? Monieb says it’s possible, but such a move “is unlikely to be public and might be something Tunisia could agree to unofficially or individually with Italy as it is the country most concerned.”
What’s in it for Tunisia? A whole lotta cash, which it desperately needs to support its collapsing economy, which has been in decline since 2002 and where inflation currently hovers around 8%. As part of the deal, the EU has pledged $118 million for sea patrol equipment, training, and tech support.
Some of this will also be used to help return migrants who are willing to go back to their native countries. Racist rhetoric from authorities is already a problem, leading to mistreatment of migrants. Police recently rounded up hundreds of migrants and left them in the desert of Libya without food or water, for example, so some fear that paying Tunisia to ramp up its migration-control efforts will lead to more abuse.
“This deal will increase tensions already on the rise between sub-Saharan migrants and some Tunisians as the authorities continue their campaign against them,” says Monieb.
What this means for Africa-Europe migration efforts. While the deal will likely alleviate the number of migrants coming from Tunisia, it will do nothing to curb the flow from other routes and countries.
The deal also sets a new precedent of the EU financially rewarding an African government for curbing migration – a trend that is likely to take off as the bloc faces growing pressure at home to curb migration and as countries with large numbers of migrants begin demanding similar treatment.
Primary school teachers protesting in Tunis, Tunisia
Hard Numbers: No cash for Tunisia’s teachers, no surprises for Uzbekistan’s president, no respite for Arizona’s heat, no place like home for gold bars
0: There were zero surprises in natural gas-rich Uzbekistan’s tightly managed presidential election on Sunday, as incumbent Shavkat Mirziyoyev took nearly 90 percent of the vote. Mirziyoyev, who rose to power after the death of Soviet-era strongman Islam Karimov in 2016, is credited with economic reforms and a measure of political liberalization. But he’s also changed the constitution to permit him to stay in power until 2040.
18: Hot enough for ya? With a punishing “heat dome” hovering over Arizona, scientists warn that the southwestern US state could be on track to break its record of 18 consecutive days in which temperatures surpass 110 F. The current mark was set in 1974. So far, the streak is at nine days.
68: Keep your friends close, but your gold closer. More than two-thirds (68%) of the world’s central banks currently hold at least part of their gold reserves domestically, according to a new survey. That’s up 18 points since 2020. The reason for the increase? Central banks in countries worried about future US sanctions — including Turkey and China — are keener to keep their stashes at home these days.
Scotland's First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) Leader Nicola Sturgeon.
What We’re Watching: Sturgeon's resignation, NATO-Nordic divide, India vs. BBC, Tunisia’s tightening grip
Nicola Sturgeon steps down
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced on Wednesday that she is stepping down. She’s been in the role for over eight years, having taken power after the failed 2014 independence referendum. Speaking from Edinburgh, Sturgeon said she’d been contemplating her future for weeks and knew "in my head and in my heart" it was time to go. A longtime supporter of Scottish independence, Sturgeon was pushing for a new referendum, which was rejected by the UK’s top court late last year. In recent weeks, she and her colleagues had been debating whether the next national election in 2024 should be an effective referendum on independence. Sturgeon will stay in power until a successor is elected — likely contenders include John Swinney, Sturgeon’s deputy first minister, Angus Robertson, the culture and external affairs secretary, and Kate Forbes, the finance secretary.
Turkey divides Finland and Sweden
On Tuesday, NATO and other Western officials publicly acknowledged for the first time that Finland and Sweden might join the transatlantic alliance at different times, a notable public admission that negotiations with Turkey over Sweden’s NATO accession haven’t gone well. Neither Nordic country can become an alliance member without unanimous support from all existing members, and NATO-member Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a beef with Sweden. Erdogan is angry that Sweden’s government has provided asylum for dozens of Kurdish leaders he considers terrorists, and it didn’t help when a right-wing activist burned a Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, an act Sweden’s government treated as an offensive act of free speech that’s protected by law. Erdogan may also see a political opportunity to boost his reelection chances by defying European leaders in general and Sweden in particular. (Turkey’s elections are expected in May or June.) For NATO, Finland’s membership is arguably the more urgent priority. Though Sweden monitors occasional Russian naval intrusions into its territorial waters, it’s Finland that shares an 810-mile land border with Russia. European leaders hope that, if Erdogan wins his election, a deal can be cut in the coming months to allow Sweden to join the club.
India takes aim at BBC
Indian tax officials raided the BBC’s local offices on Tuesday in what they said was a probe into the British broadcaster’s business practices. But the move comes amid a broader government campaign to censor a new BBC documentary about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s role in anti-Muslim riots that killed more than 1,000 people in the state of Gujarat while he was governor in 2002. Modi has always denied stoking – or neglecting – the violence, and India’s Supreme Court has reached a similar conclusion. In the weeks since the doc aired in the UK, Modi’s government has cracked down swiftly in India, blocking it from being viewed online in the country, halting screenings at Indian universities, and forcing both Twitter and YouTube to remove it locally. Modi has often used internet laws to muzzle criticism, and tax officials have searched critical media outlets before. Last year the subcontinent slipped eight points to 150 out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index. How will the UK government respond?
Tunisia crackdown intensifies
Robocop is not messing around now. Tunisian President Kais Saied, whose monotone style earned him that nickname, has unleashed a ferocious crackdown on his critics and opponents in recent days. On Tuesday, sweeping arrests ensnared the leader of Ennahda, an opposition Islamist movement that once held power in the country. Saied, a constitutional lawyer who was elected as an outsider candidate in 2019, has led a massive overhaul of Tunisia’s government, diminishing the power of the legislature and the courts. He says he’s trying to make government more decisive and efficient in the only country that emerged from the Arab Spring with a democracy. His critics say he is plunging the country of 12 million right back into an authoritarian winter. See our full profile of Saied here.
Can a dictator make democracy work for Tunisia?
The birthplace of the Arab Spring and the only country to emerge from it as a democracy — albeit an imperfect one — is now well on its way to becoming something … different.
An exit poll shows that more than 90% of Tunisians who voted in a referendum Monday approved new constitution that critics say is anything but democratic, mainly because it gives more power to the president at the expense of parliament and the judiciary. Not so, argues President Kais Saied, who claims the 2014 charter gave too much power to lawmakers and judges in the North African country of 12 million.
Turnout, as expected, was low. That's no surprise given that most opposition groups boycotted the referendum. But only 27.5% of voters showing up means that Saied — who refused to set a minimum threshold for the result to be binding — can hardly claim a popular mandate for constitutional change.
How did we get here? Exactly one year ago, Tunisia was suffering the worst political, social, and economic crisis of its democratic era.
COVID infections were soaring, the economy was going nowhere, inequality was rising, public services were hard to come by, and one-third of young Tunisians were unemployed. Democracy had failed to deliver on its promise of a better life due to fragmented parliaments, political infighting, and rampant corruption.
Saied decided to intervene by firing the government and suspending the legislature. Since then, he's doubled down on his emergency powers, ruling by decree and going after his critics, mainly the moderate Islamist political party Ennadha and the judiciary, which the president believes is in cahoots with politicians and the business elite.
But the Tunisian leader's authoritarian vibes don’t jive with his low-key persona. Far from appearing like a fearsome tyrant, Saied is a bookish former constitutional law professor in his seventies known as Robocop — not for being tough on crime, but rather for his stiff speeches delivered in monotone classic Arabic instead of the Tunisian dialect.
Still, he's gone from being elected in 2019 as a political outsider with more than 70% of the vote to dividing his people.
His supporters view Saied as a hero for "challenging the status quo" of corruption and political stagnation, says Eurasia Group analyst Sofia Meranto. For them, he's being decisive and "maintaining a sufficient veneer of doing things by the book" according to his unique legal interpretation of the same constitution he wants to ditch.
The president's detractors, however, resent him for chipping away at the pillars of a system "they have been building for more than a decade, even if it wasn't perfect," Meranto explains. In their view, Saied is "diluting the checks and balances" of the parliamentary democracy that Tunisians fought for in the Arab Spring.
Has the authoritarian-democratic experiment worked so far? Depends on whom you ask.
The president's fans say he’s dismantling a dysfunctional political system that wasn't doing anything to solve the country's problems. They love his populist gestures like demanding that tycoons cough up billions of dollars he claims they looted from the state to avoid prosecution for embezzlement.
Saied's opponents, meanwhile, claim the economy is in even worse shape than when the president seized power. Inflation is hovering above 8%; debt, pensions, and subsidies are draining state coffers; and the government is at serious risk of default if it doesn’t get an IMF bailout soon.
In the middle are many Tunisians with a high level of political apathy who were initially willing to give Saied a chance but have since soured on him over the economy, says Meranto. Some were not even aware of the referendum, which in part explains the low turnout.
What comes next? Undeterred by the low turnout, Saied will surely push ahead to hold parliamentary elections by the end of the year, the next phase of his plan to “break with the past.” But he has yet to publish the electoral law, and the new charter has watered down the power of lawmakers.
Tunisia will "try to muddle through" the next few months despite the worsening economic crisis and perhaps some social upheaval ahead of the December polls, says Meranto. The bigger problem is that with so many Tunisians having checked out of politics, the country might be sleepwalking into autocracy.Protesters rally agains the constitutional referendum in Tunis.
What We're Watching: Tunisian referendum, Lavrov on African tour
Tunisia holds constitutional referendum
Tunisians go to the polls Monday to vote in a referendum over the new constitution pushed by President Kais Saied. The vote is scheduled on the first anniversary of Saied sacking the government and suspending parliament in the only country that emerged a democracy from the Arab Spring. At the time, he justified the move as necessary to prevent a bigger crisis, but his opponents called it a coup; since then, Saied has consolidated power by taking it away from any institution or group that challenged him, including judges and trade unions. The president's growing dictator vibes have upset many Tunisians who initially supported him, but he still has fans among younger people tired of corruption and dysfunctional parliamentary politics. Most opposition groups have boycotted the plebiscite, so the "yes" vote is likely to win (albeit with a low turnout). If the new charter is approved, Saied promises to hold legislative elections within six months. But they'll be less decisive under the revised constitution, which vastly expands presidential power at the expense of parliament and the judiciary.
Russia reassures African friends
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in Africa this week with a double mission: shore up Moscow's ties across the continent and fight criticism that the invasion of Ukraine has triggered a global food crisis that's hitting Africa hard. Lavrov touched down Sunday in Egypt and will later go to Ethiopia, Uganda, and the Republic of Congo. Egypt is the largest global importer of Russian and Ukrainian wheat, while some 40% of Africa’s wheat comes from both countries. For the most part, African countries haven’t taken sides in the war, but Russia’s blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea has made it impossible for Ukraine to export wheat by sea to Africa and the Middle East. In recent years, the Kremlin has sought to expand its African footprint by courting nations across the continent with weapons, energy, and commodities deals (along with Russian mercenaries to back some of the regimes it supports). But many African countries are wary, especially as Russia's weekend airstrikes in Odesa threatened a long-sought deal to resume Ukrainian wheat exports signed on Friday. No worries, says Lavrov, who insists Russia will deliver on guaranteeing grain shipments to its African clients.A protester wears a face mask with a sticker reading "Chase Prayuth" and raising the three-finger salute during a rally against the Thai PM.
Hard Numbers: Thais come clean on Pegasus, Salvadoran emergency extended, Tunisian pol questioned, Chinese boycott mortgages
30: Thailand admitted using the Israeli-made Pegasus spyware to track phones in cases related to drugs or “national security.” The government reportedly also deployed Pegasus to spy on 30 activists linked to the ongoing youth-led mass protests against coup-leader-turned PM Prayuth Chan-ocha, which triggered a political earthquake by questioning the role of the monarchy.
46,000: El Salvador has extended the state of emergency it imposed in March to deal with rising gang violence. Over 46,000 people have been arrested so far under the controversial decree, which tough-on-crime President Nayib Bukele claims is necessary for public safety — but human rights groups argue has led to countless arbitrary detentions where dozens have died.
9: Tunisian opposition leader Rached Ghannouchi was released after more than nine hours of questioning in a corruption and money-laundering probe just days ahead of President Kais Saied's constitutional referendum on Monday. Ghannouchi, head of the moderate Islamist Ennahdha party, is a vocal critic of Saied and warns a majority "yes" vote will turn Tunisia into a dictatorship.
91: Some Chinese homebuyers have stopped paying their mortgages in at least 91 cities because developers have run out of cash to finish the projects. The revolt is exacerbating China's real-estate slump, which last year caught global attention when the Evergrande debt crisis threatened to infect the wider financial system.Indian Muslims demand the arrest of BJP member Nupur Sharma for her comments on Prophet Mohammed in Mumbai.
Hard Numbers: India’s BJP irks Muslims, Bolsonaro’s bling, Tunisian judges on strike, TikToking boomers in Japan
2: India's ruling BJP party has suspended two officials for making controversial comments about the Prophet Mohammed that have sparked outrage across the Islamic world. PM Narendra Modi is in a tough spot: only a formal apology will placate Gulf countries that India does a lot of business with, but it might make Modi look weak in the eyes of his Hindu nationalist base.
76: Want a medal in Brazil? Join the cabinet. Since taking office in early 2019, President Jair Bolsonaro has distributed 76 of the country's three most prestigious medals to his ministers, more than any of his elected predecessors did during two terms. One of the latest recipients outside government is billionaire Elon Musk, the first-ever foreign civilian to be distinguished with Brazil's Order of Defense Merit.
57: Tunisian judges will go on strike this week, days after President Kais Saied fired 57 of their colleagues in a brazen move to "purify" the judiciary. Saied assumed emergency powers almost a year ago to fix the country's dysfunctional democracy, but critics say he’s become a dictator.
16 million: A group of middle-aged Japanese men are crushing it on TikTok — 16 million views and counting — with their awkward dance numbers to encourage people to visit their town, which like many parts of rural Japan suffers from population decline. They call themselves ojiqun (Gen-Z slang for old heartthrobs) and famously dress up in shirts, ties, and ... brightly colored belly warmers.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.