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Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, mayoral candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), celebrate following the early results in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) in Istanbul, Turkey March 31, 2024.
Turkey’s AI elections
Voters across Turkey went to the polls on Sunday for local elections nationwide. While Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wasn’t on the ballot, observers expected the Turkish president to change the constitution to extend his own term limits should his AK Party win with enough of a mandate. Instead, the opposition Republican People’s Party won in a shock victory.
The consequential nature of these elections heightened concerns about disinformation spread with AI-generated media. Earlier this year, an AI-generated voiceover was used to alter a video of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu to show him praising Erdoğan. Imamoğlu is a chief rival of the Turkish president and has served as mayor since 2019.
There have also been allegations of blackmail using AI. One politician, the former professional soccer player Gokhan Zan, withdrew his mayoral candidacy in the province of Hatay after receiving threats to release a video showing him taking bribes, a video he claims was generated with AI.
Erdoğan now faces the prospect of four years in power with an emboldened opposition led by the charismatic Imamoğlu. We’re watching for how each side harnesses AI to scrap for power in one of the world’s most important — and most flawed — democratic systems.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his wife Ermine Erdogan, greets supporters at the AK Party headquarters in Ankara, Turkey.
Why is Erdogan still popular?
By many measures, things aren’t great in Turkey right now.
Inflation is at 44% (down from 85% in October), and analysts say it’s likely higher than official numbers suggest. Meanwhile, the lira, Turkey’s currency, is tanking, having fallen 76% during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest term in office (since 2018).
That’s to say nothing of the 1.5 million people left homeless by February’s devastating earthquake, which killed 50,000 in the country’s south and exposed the depths of Ankara’s cronyism and corruption. The list goes on.
The rules of democratic politics are pretty simple: When the economy is hurting, the incumbent gets punished. But Sunday’s poll shows that Erdogan remains the most popular figure in Turkish politics. The longtime leader reaped 49% of the vote, just below the 50% needed to avoid a runoff, which he is expected to win on May 28. He defied polls that had him playing second fiddle to his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a technocrat leading an alliance of six opposition parties. So what explains Erdogan's enduring appeal?
Populist moves are popular for a reason. A savvy populist dating back to his days as Istanbul’s mayor (1994-1998), Erdogan has long understood that bread-and-butter issues motivate Turkish voters above all else. In many ways, he’s been a modern populist pioneer, with his rallying against the global order and espousal of populist-driven economic policy – dubbed Erdonomics – having inspired similar styles by leaders across the Western world (though notably they haven’t replicated his approach of keeping interest rates low to fight inflation).
Indeed, Erdogan’s penchant for handing out free money to woo voters also helps explain his popularity. Over the past year alone, he has made cheap housing loans a central tenet of his domestic policy and implemented a debt-relief program for millions of Turks. What’s more, six months before the election, he passed a law allowing more than 2 million Turks to retire immediately.
Boosting wages has also been an electoral priority for Erdogan, a strategy that’s resonated in a country where more than 40% of workers earn minimum wage. He hasn’t forgotten those in urban areas either, having also raised the minimum wage for the private sector by 94% year-on-year in Jan. 2023.
Voters tend to care less about rampant inflation and currency crises when they are getting free money.
A pragmatic Islamist. Over the past two decades, Erdogan has managed to appeal to conservatives in the heartland who felt isolated by the secular elite that governed the Turkish Republic since its founding in the 1920s.
A proponent of political Islam, he succeeded where many failed by putting democratic reforms at the top of his agenda to comply with EU regulations and to help integrate Turkey’s economy with the West, while at the same time also reversing the republic’s ban on Islamist education and Islamic dress.
This delicate dance has been a winning strategy in a country where more than a third of Turkish women covered their heads but where adherence to strict religious customs is also slipping.
While other would-be Erdogans have been relegated to the dustbin of history (Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi is a case in point), Erdogan has managed to skillfully integrate Islam into mainstream politics without imposing it on secular Turks.
Things are far from perfect in Turkey. But for many Turks who have seen the Middle East go up in flames since the Arab Spring, Erdogan represents stability, diplomatic clout, Islamic values and economic fruition … and in a tumultuous neighborhood that counts for a lot.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets the crowd before a meeting of his ruling AK Party to announce the party's election manifesto ahead of the May 14 elections, in Ankara, Turkey April 11, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Erdogan’s opposition, Myanmar military’s deadly air raids, Italian coastguard’s rescue mission, Bonnie without Clyde
6: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan kicked off his reelection campaign Tuesday in a bid to defeat six opposition parties that have joined forces ahead of the May 14 poll. Erdogan, who has been in power for two decades, vowed to cut inflation – now at 50%, thought analysts say it's higher – to single digits, though his aggressive slashing of interest rates continues to baffle economists.
100: Around 100 people, including children, are thought to have been killed on Tuesday when Myanmar’s military junta launched air raids on the central town of Pazigyi in the Sagaing region, 110 kilometers (45 miles) outside of Yangon. The region was considered a hotbed of opposition after the junta staged a coup in Feb. 2021.
1,200: The Italian coastguard is trying to rescue around 1,200 migrants stranded on two overcrowded boats off the coast of Sicily. One vessel originated in Libya, while the origin of the other fishing boat – carrying 800 people – is unclear. Italian ministers declared a state of emergency Wednesday that will free up cash to deal with the uptick in migration to Italy. How are Rome and Brussels responding to the surge? Read our primer.
13,000: A 78-year-old Missouri woman named Bonnie Gooch has been arrested for bank robbery. She allegedly gave a bank teller a note last week demanding “13,000 small bills” while banging erratically on the counter. This is her third such arrest, with her first heist dating back to 1977. Bonnie’s in jail with a $25,000 bond hanging over her head, and we’re left wondering: Where’s Clyde?
The Autocrat's Playbook
How does a democracy die? In stops and starts – says our guest this week – and usually, from within. Steve Levitsky is a professor of politics at Harvard and the co-author of the recent bestseller How Democracies Die. Drawing from history and present day (think: Venezuela), Levitsky makes a compelling case for precisely how an autocrat could bring down the pillars of democracy. And Ian presses him on perhaps the most worrying implication of all: is the United States next?
+World Cup + Turkey Elections + Migrants in the Mediterranean.
Let’s get to it.