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Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kihsida speaks to media at the Prime Minister’s office in Tokyo on Oct. 12, 2023.
Japan moves to punish Unification Church
Japan’s government has asked a court to strike the legal status of the Unification Church, which has been at the center of an investigation for over a year following the assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe. Abe’s killer, Tetsuya Yamagami, was outraged that the church had solicited hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations from his mother, ruining the family’s finances.
Yamagami told police he believed Abe was a supporter of the church, and while never a member, Abe did praise the movement’s family values. After the assassination, it was revealed that dozens of ruling Liberal Democratic Party politicians had connections to the church, including Abe’s grandfather. PM Fumio Kishida replaced his defense and economy ministers amid these revelations and passed stricter laws on how religious groups can fundraise.
Will this be the undoing of the church? It stands to lose its tax-exempt status, which it has allegedly exploited as it pressured members into making enormous donations. The government estimates the Church pressured about 1,550 individuals to donate an average of around ¥13 million (roughly $86,000) each.
The church is likely to appeal, and the case may go before Japan’s Supreme Court, but there is good reason to expect the government to win. Courts, after all, have already used the same powers to crack down on an exorcism cult and a terrorist sect.
Whatever goes down in court, the church’s political influence has already evaporated.
“It’s toast,” says Eurasia Group Japan expert David Boling, of the church’s future in Japan, adding that the court case may help Kishida as he eyes possible snap elections. “The Japanese public fully supports this move, so it's a political freebie for Kishida. The LDP wants nothing to do with the Unification Church.”
For more on the Unification Church and its role in Japanese politics, read our deep dive here. And, check out more of Boling’s insights on Kishida’s political outlook here.
Smoke rises after a Russian drones strike on Kyiv, Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: Drones over Kyiv, GOP’s advantage, Kishida’s church probe
Russia starts droning on
Russia attacked targets across Ukraine on Monday with Iranian-made “suicide drones,” which fly into targets and then explode. At least four people were killed when one of them struck an apartment complex in Kyiv. The building is located across the street from the offices of Ukraine’s national energy company, which may have been the intended target. That’s consistent with Russia’s recent approach of striking critical civilian infrastructure in retaliation for Ukraine’s sabotage of the Kerch Strait bridge earlier this month. Also on Monday, a Russian drone strike crippled a major sunflower oil export terminal in the southern city of Mykolaiv, raising the prospect of a renewed turbulence in prices for cooking oil, a staple in kitchens around the world. Tehran denies supplying the drones, but experts say they are clearly Shahed-136 drones from Iran. Until now, drones have been deployed to the most devastating effect by the Ukrainians, but Russia — suffering military setbacks on the ground and unable to establish aerial dominance — could be seeking a way to strike lots of targets crudely and at a relatively low cost. Although drones are slow-moving and easier to shoot down than jets or missiles, Ukraine is still calling for better air defenses overall. See our recent interview with a Ukrainian drone operator here.
Republicans’ midterm edge
We are in the homestretch before US midterm elections on Nov. 8, and things are looking up for … Republicans. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday shows that economic issues are top of mind for voters, with 44% of Americans polled listing it as their top concern, up from 36% in July. What’s more, as inflationary pressures persist, a majority of voters (64%) now see Republicans as better equipped to tackle cost-of-living issues. Part of the reason for the Dems’ poor outlook is that midterms are often seen as a referendum on the president’s performance, and President Joe Biden is not a popular guy. Another trend identified by the poll is growing support for Republicans amongst independents – a crucial electorate – with the GOP having edged out team blue to establish a 10-point lead among these voters. These revelations are devastating for Democrats, who were hoping the reversal of Roe vs. Wade – an unpopular move with independents – as well as renewed calls for gun regulation after a spate of recent shootings, might bode well for their electoral prospects. The GOP looks set to take control of the House, but keep an eye on the Senate, where several key races are neck-and-neck.
Japan’s Kishida pulls out all the stops
On Monday, Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida – whose approval ratings have been plummeting – announced a state investigation of the controversial Unification Church. The probe will look at whether the church, which has ties to Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, harmed public welfare or engaged in activities beyond the scope of a religious group. The church, whose members are known as Moonies, has been the focus of scrutiny since the July assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe by a 42-year-old man who said he killed Abe because of his association with the church. The alleged killer accused the Moonies of having caused his mother’s financial ruin. Depending on the findings, the church could lose its tax-exempt status but would still be allowed to operate. The move, which some say reflects government tokenism, is unlikely to improve Kishida’s dismal approval rating, which recently fell below 30%, the lowest level since he came to office almost a year ago. But as the Japanese yen plunged on Monday to its lowest level against the US dollar in 32 years – in part because of the central bank’s longtime refusal to raise interest rates even during times of high inflation – can anyone blame Kishida for trying anything and everything to stop the bleeding?
Grief & controversy in Japan for Shinzo Abe's state funeral
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here from Tokyo, Japan, where it has been a pretty intense day. The state funeral of Shinzo Abe, the prime minister who, of course, of Japan was assassinated some 80 days ago. In some ways just kind of an astonishing couple of weeks for the world. Beginning of last week, of course, you had the funeral for Queen Elizabeth, by far the most important figure for the United Kingdom in the post-war period. Then the United Nations, where the entire world comes together in New York, and now in Japan, the state funeral, the first state funeral that you've had in Japan, 55 years for Abe Shinzo, who is by far the most important figure in Japan in the post-war period.
And in both cases, an astonishing outpouring of emotion, of grief in both countries. In the United Kingdom, of course, because she had ruled for 70 years, through so many prime ministers, since Churchill. In Japan, because Prime Minister Abe was gunned down, was assassinated by a young man with homemade weapons in a country that has virtually no violence and certainly not gun attacks against a former prime minister in broad daylight.
Also, controversy in both cases. In the case of the United Kingdom, young people increasingly unhappy with the idea of a monarchy. They think it's something that's kind of, sort of out of date, no longer appropriate for the United Kingdom or the world in the way it projects its power internationally. And of course, King Charles not nearly as popular as Queen Elizabeth has been. In the case of Japan, you have a sitting Prime Minister Kishida, who was both a protege and enormous ally of former Prime Minister Abe, whose popularity has been crushed over the past months, in part because of a crashing yen and challenges in economy, but also in part because of opposition to holding this state funeral, which frankly was because the of a big scandal in across the entire Liberal Democratic party in Japan, the ruling party, because of connections with the unification church, the Moonies as they're called.
The person who assassinated Abe actually wanted to assassinate the head of the Unification Church and couldn't because COVID restrictions meant that he was no longer traveling to Japan. And so he decided, okay, I'm going to kill Prime Minister Abe instead. And then you have these revelations that so many members of the LDP in parliament, in the Diet in Japan, were receiving funds, were going to meetings of the Unification Church. And Kishida's not tried to whitewash it, but it has made the decision to host the state funeral unpopular.
Having said all of that, you saw very little of that today. 20,000 members of Japanese police coming out to ensure that there was no security breaches anywhere during the day, and certainly I didn't see any problems at all. There were some demonstrations. They were relatively small, a few thousand people. Frankly, 5,000 people showed up directly inside for the state funeral. And people I've spoken to in Tokyo today, on balance pretty happy with the fact this has all gone relatively smoothly. We can finally put this horrible act behind Japan, behind the nation.
I will say Japan, unlike so many other democracies in the world today, is a relatively well functioning country, relatively unified. You don't have the same level of populism and fragmentation and de-legitimization of the political system that you see so much in other advanced industrial economies. But this still was an episode, this assassination, that really did deeply shake the Japanese people. And there's still, there's going to be a hangover for that I think for a long time.
Final point for me, the ceremony itself was really quite moving. Kishida-san, the prime minister, gave a powerful opening speech that was really about his political alignment with Prime Minister Abe and everything that Abe had done, his legacy. But by far the most moving part of the ceremony was from Suga-san, who was basically, in addition to being a one of Abe's closest allies, was also perhaps his best political friend. And he spoke about how he was able to convince Abe, after stepping down the first time as PM because of a significant illness, to run again for PM, and that it was the most significant accomplishment he considered of his entire life, and that he would consider it such until he was no longer here with us. Again, it was a moving speech. I saw that Prime Minister Abe's wife was crying all the way through. There was a spontaneous outburst of applause after he gave the speech, which is very unusual in Japan. Certainly otherwise, it was all quiet and respectful all the way through.
Also, such a large number of international leaders that came out for the Abe funeral. Not surprising, Prime Minister Modi, Narendra Modi of India, who was really Abe's best friend on the international stage, a relationship that really initiated the Quad that we have today. It started with Japan and with Abe, not with the United States, the US then picked it up, and it continues to be perhaps the most robust new international grouping that we have in Asia right now. But also, presidents and prime ministers from all over the world, foreign ministers just showing that the longest standing prime minister of Japan in its post-war history didn't just make a mark on Japan inside the country, but also leaves the legacy internationally that we'll be talking about for generation to come.
So that's, anyway, it for me here from Tokyo, I hope everyone's doing well and I'll talk to you all very soon.
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Why Japan’s political Moonies have staying power
When Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled his cabinet for the first time since former PM Shinzo Abe’s assassination earlier this summer, it was a response to his falling approval rating. His government was struggling to tame rising COVID infections and acute inflation.
But it was also seen as damage control for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s ties to the controversial Unification Church. Kishida fired cabinet ministers linked to the cult-like religious movement born in South Korea whose members are known as Moonies (after founder Sun Myung Moon).
Although the PM also promised only to appoint future cabinet members who agree to review their relationship with the church, it wasn’t enough. After his popularity plummeted 16 percentage points in just a month to 36%, its lowest level since he took power, Kishida this week demanded all cabinet members review their past ties to the religious group.
The Moonies hit the spotlight after Abe’s alleged assassin blamed the church for his family’s financial ruin. The revelation that over 100 national politicians — most of them LDP lawmakers — have ties to the church also came as an ugly surprise to the public, especially as Japan’s constitution calls for the separation of church and state.
Kishida dismissed then-Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, Abe’s younger brother, who wasn’t a member of the church but received help from it in past elections. The same was true of Koichi Hagiuda, who was replaced as economy minister.
Abe’s assassination triggered a public outcry against the church's political power. According to a recent poll, almost 90% of the Japanese people want the ruling party to better explain its ties to the Moonies. Strikingly, less than 7% accept Kishida’s explanation that there’s no organizational relationship between the LDP and the church.
Since the reshuffle,at least 20 of 54 lawmakers appointed as deputies to cabinet members have confirmed links to the church.
But Kishida is not severing ties completely. For instance, the ousted Kishi will likely become a special adviser to the PM on national security issues, effectively serving as a direct line to Kishida, and Haguida has been asked to head the LDP's policy research council, an influential party position.
The cabinet reshuffle was a classic move in Japanese politics to change a negative news cycle, says Eurasia Group’s lead Japan expert David Boling. “But this time the Japanese people said: 'not so fast.'”
What’s more, the PM reportedly knew that the replacements for many of the ousted ministers carried some of the same baggage, which for Boling is hardly a surprise. In other words, the Moonies are not really out of power — at least not yet.
"Kishida is between a rock and hard place," Boling says. The PM has to make the impossible choice between appointing experienced people despite their past ties to the church, or inexperienced ones who are free from the Moonie taint.
Still, the Japanese public clearly “wants a clean break."
What’s the big deal about the Moonies and their relationship with Japan's ruling party? The ties between the LDP and Moon’s church go back to the 1960s, when the South Korean pastor expanded to Japan.
In the 1970s, Moon and Abe’s grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi (a former PM and LDP founding member), co-founded an offshoot of the religious movement to confront the spread of communism during the Cold War. Both the LDP and Moon were staunchly anti-communist and deeply conservative.
Japan “has been remarkably fertile ground for so-called 'new religions.' If one thinks of the Unification Church in those terms, it is less surprising that it took root and gained political ground,” says Boling.
Over the years, the relationship evolved into one of mutual pragmatic benefit. The church would pay for LDP members to speak at their events, and in return, they would obtain the material support and manpower via donations and volunteers for campaigns that help meet Moonie political objectives, which often align with the ruling party’s.
“The LDP helped the church gain a sense of legitimacy in Japan,” says Charles T. McClean, a Japan researcher at Yale University’s Council on East Asian Studies. And that legitimacy translated into an economic windfall for the Moonies.
In little over half a century, Moon’s church has built a multibillion-dollar global business empire that owns the conservative Washington Times newspaper Moon founded, the New Yorker hotel in the Big Apple, and other vast real-estate assets. The Moonies supported Richard Nixon’s presidential campaign through organized prayer breakfasts and rallies, and in the 1980s the church attracted controversy for cozying up to America’s New Right.
Despite these notable connections, most of the church’s wealth comes from Japan. Japanese members have traditionally provided as much as 70% of the Unification Church’s financial resources, later funneled via South Korea to finance Moon’s ambitions in the US and elsewhere.
The Moonies are notorious in Japan for their so-called “spiritual-pressure sales” method of extracting donations through manipulation and cajoling, bankrupting many of the faithful – like the mother of Abe’s suspected killer.
So, what’s next for politicians tied to the church? For McClean, the cabinet shakeup was “a dam to prevent leaks before it becomes a larger flood.” But the bigger question is whether the continuing ties between the LDP and the church will have severe consequences for Kishida and his party's future.
The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party has already denounced Kishida’s reshuffle as a cover-up. (A dozen CDP lawmakers have admitted to having church ties, but the LDP has gotten most of the flak because it has governed Japan for most of the country’s postwar history.)
The overlap of religion in politics and business is standard practice in Japan, where some 180,000 groups are officially registered as religious corporations. The LDP is just one of the many parties that employ religion to raise the funds and votes necessary to thrive.
Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner since 1999, draws almost all of its financial support from the Buddhist group Soka Gakkai, with eight million followers just in Japan.
The LDP and Komeito have had a strained alliance in the past, and with intense scrutiny over the LDP’s involvement with the church, Komeito may feel an increased threat to its survival. But McClean says the LDP depends on Komeito to campaign because the ruling party lacks its partner’s strong grassroots ability to turn out the vote, not to mention the Soka Gakkai constituency.
“It’s hard to predict how much the current scandal will negatively impact the LDP over the next few months,” McClean explains. “At least through Abe’s state funeral, I don’t see it going away … we’ll definitely be talking about it over the next month.”
Boling however, sees it lasting longer: “The opposition parties will keep cranking up the heat on Kishida. Japanese media has been aggressively reporting on the LDP-Unification Church connection, and they’ll continue to shine a glaring light on it.”
Still, the Moonies are just one of Kishida’s growing problems. Together with COVID, soaring inflation, and a majority of Japanese citizens opposing the taxpayer-funded state funeral planned for Abe on Sept. 27, things are looking bad for the PM in the near term.
“Kishida must focus on the economy like a laser beam,” says Boling. “The top issue by far is the economy — Kishida ignores that at his peril.”