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U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China August 29, 2024.
Sullivan trip sets up Biden-Xi call
Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a conciliatory tone when he met with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Thursday, after three days of talks aimed at managing tensions in the US-China relationship. Sitting in the Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square in Beijing, Xi said, “In this changing and turbulent world, countries need solidarity and coordination … not exclusion or regress.” Their meeting was the culmination of efforts to communicate thoroughly over points of potential conflict, including Taiwan, Ukraine, and the South China Sea.
Sullivan also met with the vice chair of China’s Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia,the highest-ranking military official to have sat down with the Biden administration. Zhang accused the US of “collusion” with Taiwan, but the meeting produced an agreement to conduct more bilateral military talks, which it is hoped will help avoid surprises and escalation.
There was one topic Sullivan explicitly said was not discussed: the US election. As we wrote earlier this week, Beijing was thrown for a loop by President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic ticket and seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach. Both sides agreed to work toward a Biden-Xi phone call in the coming weeks, and Sullivan indicated the White House is ready for a face-to-face meeting at the G20 summit in November as well.The US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Chung-Hoon sails alongside the Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Montreal during Surface Action Group operations as a part of exercise “Noble Wolverine" in the South China Sea.
Canada caught up in US-China maritime tensions
This week, China sailed a warship very close to a US destroyer and a Canadian frigate transiting through the Taiwan Strait, which separates the Chinese mainland from the self-ruled island. The encounter follows a recent near-air collision between a Chinese fighter jet and a US spy plane over the South China Sea.
The US and Canada say they were conducting what is known in navy parlance as a Freedom of Navigation Operation or FONOP under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees all ships the right to "innocent" passage. Yet for China, these actions are anything but innocent: FONOPs seek to provoke Beijing by sailing through disputed waters to challenge China's claims in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, one of the world's busiest maritime shipping routes.
The buzzing incident also puts a spotlight on Canadian FONOPs in this part of the world, which are becoming more frequent as relations with China get frostier. (Interestingly, Canadians like doing FONOPs with Americans in China-claimed waters but not in the Arctic, where Ottawa and Washington have a beef over who controls the Northwest Passage.)
Still, by joining US-led FONOPs in testy Pacific waters, Canada risks getting caught in the crossfire of rising US-China tensions — especially over Taiwan. And the harder China pushes back, the bigger the odds of a miscalculation that could trigger an armed conflict.
"China doesn’t seem terribly worried about an accident," says Anna Ashton, Eurasia Group's top China analyst. Beijing "is probably hoping to intimidate the US, Canada, and other countries into conducting fewer transits and other activities in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea because that helps China assert greater de facto control over these regions."
Soldier miniatures are seen in front of displayed Chinese and Taiwanese flags.
US vs. China in Taiwan
The US and China may not be in a Cold War — but they could end up fighting a hot war over Taiwan.
For many, the question is not if but when Xi Jinping will decide to invade the self-ruled island. Maybe 2025, especially if a pro-independence candidate wins Taiwan's presidential election next year and the US president is distracted by messy domestic politics. Another option is 2027, when Xi has told the Chinese military to be ready to attack. Or perhaps he will just kick the can down the road until his final deadline, 2049, when the People’s Republic turns 100.
Regardless, annexing Taiwan by force would be a huge gamble for China.
For one thing, Xi knows that no matter how much China boosts defense spending, its military has not been tested in combat since 1979, when it — checks notes — lost a border war with Vietnam. For another, China's leader is probably having second thoughts after the Western response to Russia's war in Ukraine.
What's more, the US is treaty-bound, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, to help Taiwan defend itself. (Not defend Taiwan, whatever President Biden says.) But getting weapons to Taiwan under China's nose will risk direct conflict with US forces, potentially triggering World War III.
Finally, if you think the war in Ukraine did a number on the global economy, a US-China fight over Taiwan would be much worse. The island is a chipmaking superpower, and the potential hit to global supply chains is uncharted territory.What We’re Watching: US mulls China sanctions, Uzbek talks focus on ‘cooperation,’ US train strike averted
Will the US preemptively sanction China over Taiwan?
If you thought US-China ties couldn't get any icier, think again. Washington is reportedly mulling sanctions in a bid to deter Beijing from invading Taiwan — and nudging the EU to follow suit. No specifics yet, but the package would presumably target the Chinese military, which has upped the muscle-flexing ante near the self-ruled island since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in early August. Such a move would be similar to how the US and its allies warned Russia there would be a steep price to pay for invading Ukraine. Taiwan would welcome preemptive sanctions and has long called for the Americans and, more recently, the Europeans to do more to protect the island against Chinese aggression. But any sanctions would also rile Xi Jinping, who’s up for “reelection” next month and has vowed to reunite the island with the mainland before the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic in 2049 – by force, if necessary. While the White House has refused to comment, a sanctions plan could signal that US intelligence believes Xi might make a play for Taiwan sooner rather than later.
Cooperation at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
This week, Uzbekistan will host the latest meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a gathering of world leaders who present their club as an alternative to Western-led institutions, such as the G7 and NATO. There will be photos of powerful people like China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, India’s Narendra Modi, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan smiling and shaking hands, and in some ways, they can help one another. Xi can make a show of embracing Putin as Europeans and Americans work to isolate his government. Putin can offer Modi more oil at even more sharply discounted prices. Erdogan can back Putin’s bid to include Russian grain and fertilizer alongside permitted shipments of Ukrainian grain. Modi can reassure Xi that his security partnership with Washington remains limited. But behind the scenes, there is friction. Xi will talk up his friendship with Putin, but he won’t create bigger problems for China’s economy by openly ignoring Western sanctions on Russia. Just this week, Xi and Modi pulled troops back from their shared Himalayan border, but deadly hostilities between them could restart at any time. Putin and Erdogan remain on opposite sides of a shooting war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In short, there’s plenty for these leaders to talk about, but this cooperation forum won’t sharply increase their actual cooperation.
US iron horse strike averted
Think you’re annoyed at all those work demands during your time off? Unions representing half of America’s organized freight rail workers were ready to go on strike this Friday unless they reached an agreement with rail companies that would, among other things, relax the requirement that they stay “on call” 24/7. The economic impact of a strike would have been huge as nearly 30% of US freight moves by rail. It also would have affected many passenger services and driven already-dizzying inflation rates even higher. But just in the nick of time, known “ferroequinologist” (that’s your word of the week — more below) Joe Biden announced a tentative deal early Thursday between unions and companies to stop the strike. It’s a big relief for the president, who didn’t want to clash with organized labor, an important Democratic constituency, by asking Congress to use its authority to impose an agreement on unions as Republicans wanted. What’s a ferroequinologist? From the Latin ferrum (iron) and equus (horse), it’s literally an enthusiast of “iron horses,” an early 20th-century term for trains. “Amtrak Joe” loves trains!