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The US can’t let Iran get any closer to nuclear weapons, says Iran expert Ali Vaez
Even if the US rejoins the Iran nuclear deal, many Republicans are fiercely opposed to it — and could withdraw again in 2025 if they win the White House in two years.
Why do it at all then? Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group, has some thoughts.
For one thing, it'll buy us nine years before the Iranians can enrich enough uranium for a nuke. For another, now we know the real effect of pulling out: it boosted Iran's nuclear program.
What's more, if the US withdraws for a second time, Vaez says the terms of the deal will leave Tehran where it is today: "uncomfortably close to nuclear weapons."
How close? Well, he says, in a matter of four weeks the Iranians could enrich enough uranium to be 99% of the way to weapons-grade.
A single weapon is not an arsenal, but Vaez thinks that's still "too much of a risk and ... too uncomfortable for Israel and the US."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
Libyans are seen through a Kingdom of Libya flag during a celebration rally in front of the residence of Muammar Gaddafi at the Bab al-Aziziyah complex in Tripoli on September 13, 2011.
What We’re Watching: Libya’s future, Russia vs UK in Black Sea, US blocks Iranian news sites
Peace in Libya? Representatives from several outside players with a stake in Libya's future are meeting in Berlin with the country's interim unity government to chart a path toward peace after a decade of bloody internal conflict. Since 2011, the energy-rich North African country has been split between areas controlled by the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord and the Libyan National Army, a militia headed by warlord Khalifa Haftar. It's long been a proxy war as well, with Turkey backing the GNA and Gulf states and Russia supporting Haftar. One major concern is what to do with the 20,000 foreign troops currently in the country, which include Turkish soldiers and Syrian fighters on Ankara's payroll in Tripoli, as well as Russian mercenaries. Western powers want the Turks and Russians to withdraw their forces, but Ankara and Moscow would rather wait to see how things play out. Another thorny issue is how 75 UN-appointed Libyan lawmakers will agree on the legal basis to hold a general election in December without a constitution in place. We'll be tracking progress on both.
Black Sea shenanigans: Moscow says it happened, London says it didn't. Who ya gonna believe? Russia claimed Wednesday it had fired warning shots and dropped bombs to scare off a British warship near the Crimean coast. As the Russians tell it, the Brits beat a hasty retreat, but the UK denies that anything of the sort happened at all. As they tell it, the warship was unbothered as it conducted "innocent passage" through Ukrainian territorial waters. And there's the rub — ever since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin considers the waters in question to be its own, and Moscow gets very prickly about NATO ships showing up there. Regardless of whether shots were fired or not, the incident underscores how fragile relations between Russia and the "West" are, even after that Biden-Putin summit last week which was meant to smooth things over.
US swipes Iranian news sites: The US Justice Department has taken down 33 Iran-affiliated news websites for allegedly spreading disinformation among American voters before the 2020 US presidential election, and another three for links to an Iranian terrorist group. Although the websites are owned by US companies which did nothing wrong, the DOJ has legal basis to shutter them because the Iranian entities did not register the domain names with US authorities — a breach of US sanctions against Iran. All of this happens as Americans and Iranians continue to renegotiate the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, with both sides, as usual, playing hard-to-get. Iran's new President Ebrahim Raisi doesn't want to meet Joe Biden, but we all know that it's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — who still wants to make an agreement but doesn't want to seem too eager — who will have the final say.
After Iranian election, revival of nuclear deal with US is a safe bet
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week:
With Iran's hardline president-elect, is reviving the nuclear deal still possible?
It's not just possible, it's probably one of the safest geopolitical bets around the world today, because not only the Iranian president-elect, but also the supreme leader, who really runs the country, all in favor of going back to the deal as it was enforced under the Obama-Biden administration. They will make more money off of that. They're not going to expand it. They're going to be limited. They don't even want to expand the timeline, never mind include other issues like support for proxies in the region, terrorist organizations, ballistic missile development, all of that. But I'd be really surprised that by the end of the year, by the end of the third quarter, we don't see the Iranians back in the Iranian nuclear deal.
China's longest serving US ambassador is retiring, expected to be replaced by a "wolf warrior" diplomat. What signal is China sending?
Well, I mean, the signaling that it's not going to be any easier between the United States and China. The US administration now views China as their principal adversary. The rhetoric for both the Biden administration and Republicans has been getting sharper, and the Chinese intend to give back. They're more assertive themselves, more nationalistic, and there is more flag-waving going on. So I'm not all that surprised. The question will be, do they do this as well in ambassadorial appointments to US allies around the world? I mean, if we were to see that in Europe, for example, that would surprise me. But it does seem to be where the diplomacy is going. Having said that, the Chinese ambassador to Japan is all about engaging Japanese corporations, showing them that China can have a great relationship with the corporates, they should be investing more in China. I would think that it would be China's interest to do more of that outside the United States. But again, the diplomacy doesn't seem to be moving in that direction, so far.
Amid rising conflict in the Tigray region, will Nobel Peace Prize winner and current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed win re-election Ethiopia?
Well, sure he will. But in part, that's because a lot of those that oppose him are not participating in this election. That's part of what happened in Tigray, where the elections were postponed, the federal elections, and they decided, breakaway region, heck, we're just going to have our own elections. And that ended up leading to a lot of fighting and massive human rights violations, ethnic cleansing as well on the part of the Ethiopian government. Some support from Eritrean army from across the border, even some of the majority, Oromo, not participating in these elections because they don't like the fact that Abiy Ahmed is moving away from an ethno-administrative federalist model towards sort of post-ethnic parties. And so they said, "well, what about what about us? You know, what about your own people?" So elections go forward, but do they lead to more stability in one of the most exciting growth economies in Africa? The answer probably right now is no.
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Biden & Khamenei's nuclear song and dance
The US and Iran both seem interested in reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, but there's one simple problem they just can't get past. See the whole song and dance on PUPPET REGIME.
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Israel tries to blow up US-Iran nuclear talks. What happens now?
Iran has vowed to avenge Sunday's attack on its Natanz nuclear facility. Tehran blames Israel, which — as in the past — has neither confirmed nor denied it was responsible. And all this happens just days after indirect talks on US plans to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal resumed in Vienna. What the Iranians do now will determine the immediate future of those negotiations, a Biden administration priority.
What happened? Natanz, one of Iran's most important sites for uranium enrichment, was hit by an explosion that affected the power system that supplies the centrifuges. The damage will likely set back the country's efforts to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels by some time. So far it's unclear whether it was a cyberattack similar to the Stuxnet malicious worm jointly developed by Israel and the US that destroyed one-fifth of Iran's centrifuges in 2010, or a bomb like the one that caused a July 2020 fire in the same facility.
Why now? The timing of the attack as US-Iran nuclear talks are ongoing is no coincidence. Israel fiercely opposed the original agreement championed six years ago by the Obama administration and was delighted when Donald Trump walked out of the deal in 2018 and later slapped crippling economic sanctions on Iran. To move talks forward, President Biden is willing to lift some of those sanctions, but Tehran, cautious about looking desperate so early in the discussions, has been playing hard to get.
The Israelis now worry that Iran has restarted enriching uranium at higher levels and that many of the deal's so-called "sunset clauses" expire in 2026, so Iran could begin to significantly expand its nuclear program while (technically) adhering to the terms of the agreement. Tel Aviv feels it's urgent to stop version 2.0 of the nuclear deal before Iran comes even close to getting the bomb.
How does it affect the US-Iran nuclear talks? It's too soon to ascertain whether the attack will diminish Iran's key bargaining chip: threatening to enrich uranium faster. What is virtually guaranteed, however, is that its aftermath will poison the domestic political environment in Iran, where any concession to "Great Satan" is always a hard sell, even more so now with a presidential election coming up in two months.
While the Americans' negotiating hand has strengthened, Natanz will further erode a mutual willingness to compromise — which is already very low after Iran stopped complying with the deal's terms on uranium enrichment in May 2019, and the high-profile assassination of a top Iranian general ordered by Trump in early 2020.
Who benefits? Clearly, Israel, for two reasons. First, whatever the full extent of the damage, it has physically undermined Iran's nuclear program, in the near term at least. Second, it has complicated a diplomatic process the Israelis would like to stop. Iran is now left to choose between a forceful retaliation that would delay any lifting of sanctions and an easing of economic hardship inside Iran, or a muted response that could make Iran's leaders appear weak just at the moment they'd like to be driving a hard bargain.
What happens next? The fallout from Natanz will put immense pressure on the Vienna talks, likely hardening Iran's position and reducing the odds of reaching an agreement before the presidential vote in June. Regardless of the election outcome, the decision on whether to rejoin the nuclear deal will be made by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Negotiations will continue. Iran's sanction-plagued economy suffered mightily last year due to the pandemic and low prices for the oil it's still able to export. Doing whatever it takes to get an agreement may not be popular for many conservatives at home, but US sanctions relief is too big an economic incentive for Iran to ignore.
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Israel's election results, US-Iran nuclear talks, and vaccine passports
Ian Bremmer discusses Netanyahu's challenge, the US-Iran nuclear talks, and why vaccine passports are a good idea on this edition of World In 60 Seconds.
Will Israel's Netanyahu be able to successfully form a new government?
Well, he's been given the charge to. I guess he has 28 days to do it. It's a really, really tight equation. He'd have to get both an ultra-right party that's got a bunch of serious Islamophobes in it and a Muslim party to join. I think they're heading for no-such-luck, and the fifth election in just a couple of years. Israel just keep getting it done. Not as much to worry about, given that the pandemic's been handled with all those vaccines, but still quite a problem.
What's the latest on renewed US-Iran nuclear talks?
Well, they're happening. Not together. They're moderated. And, you know, the Americans and Iranians are in separate rooms, but they are engaging. There's a big question about who goes first. Do the Americans have to open sanctions first? The Iranians have to start getting back in the program. How do you sequence it? The Iranians need the Americans a lot more than the Americans need the Iranians. They are moving back towards the old JCPOA that everyone in power would basically like to see back in place. Even though you get criticism domestically against Biden in the US. By the end of the year, latest beginning of next year, you get back into the Iranian nuclear deal. I'll make that call and you'll see another million-ish barrels of Iranian crude on the markets.
Are vaccine passports a good idea?
Yes. Yes, they are. And it is true that this is an additional level of privacy that you won't have. That ship has sailed. The most important thing is that we have a way to track people that are vaccinated, fully vaccinated, and therefore can't transmit the virus and allow the global economy to pick up much, much faster, which is more important to me, frankly. And Lord knows, I've been traveling to a bunch of countries historically that have required me to get jabs. Places like India, Nigeria, Ethiopia. It's not a problem. You get a jab, you show them your vaccine passport. The fact that technologically enabled right now means that the surveillance is going to be more significant.