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Alaska Governor Dunleavy warns of "heightened" Russian and Chinese activities in the Arctic
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Governor Mike Dunleavy underscores Alaska's strategic significance in US national security, describing it as "the real operational fort for North America." The state's unique geographical location, further west than Hawaii and, at one point, just two and a half miles from Russia, places it on the front lines of potential conflicts with adversaries like Russia, China, and North Korea. Dunleavy admits that Alaska regularly faces military provocations, including Russian bombers that "overfly our state... maybe three times a month" and Chinese warships navigating through the Bering Strait.
The Governor warns that Alaska's proximity to global hotspots like Asia and the Arctic makes it a critical player in any future military conflicts. "If there is conflict [in Asia], Alaska is going to be unfortunately part of that," he says, noting that the state's military bases would likely become key points for deploying US troops and equipment. The governor also highlights the state's role in missile defense, mentioning that Alaska's interceptors are crucial in dealing with "Korean missile threats," emphasizing the state's readiness to respond to growing regional tensions.
Watch full episode: As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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"The next 50 years belong to Alaska" — An interview with Gov. Mike Dunleavy
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to explore the state’s pivotal role in America’s energy, technology, and national security. Alaska sits at the heart of some of America's thorniest geopolitical challenges. Its renewable resources, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and freshwater make it a critical part of the country's energy and technology futures, while its strategic location near Russia and China underscores its geopolitical importance. No one understands better than Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, who drills into Alaska's energy and economic potential and discusses US national security concerns within a melting Arctic on the GZERO World Podcast.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.President Joe Biden looks on as Evan Gershkovich, who was released from detention in Russia, is greeted by his mother Ella Milman, upon his arrival at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, on Aug. 1, 2024.
Did Moscow just open the diplomatic door?
They’re free! Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, former US Marine Paul Whelan, journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, and Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza were released in a major prisoner swap between Russia and the West on Thursday.
President Joe Biden proudly addressed the nation about securing the release of 16 prisoners, including 12 foreigners, noting that it was a “feat of diplomacy.” The plane carrying Gershkovich, Kurmasheva, and Whelan landed at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland late last night, where they were greeted by a heartwarming scene with their families, Biden, and Vice President Kamala Harris.
The less good news: Vadim Krasikov, a Russian imprisoned in Germany for murdering a former Chechen militant, also walked. But he’ll likely be stuck in Russia for the foreseeable future — so we won’t dwell on it.
Why now? Many assumed Vladimir Putin would avoid handing a clear win like this to Biden, or that the Kremlin would exact a bigger price in doing so. But instead, they’ve given up their highest-profile prisoners in exchange for 16 of their own in a politically advantageous win for the Biden-Harris administration. The swap was the result of months of complex negotiations and high-stakes diplomacy.
Still, we don’t know all the details. “We don’t know whether there were any quid pro quos that are not part of the public statements on all of this,” as Sam Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, points out. And as for Biden, he says, “Maybe giving him a win isn’t so important [to the Kremlin] anymore.”
But it still surprises Greene “that [the Russians] would take essentially their entire deck of trading cards and cash it in for at least what on the face of it is not a whole heck of a lot.”
Could this signal that Russia is willing to engage in broader diplomacy? Unlikely, says Tinatin Japaridze, a regional expert and analyst at Eurasia Group. “Even though some will interpret the latest move as a signal of potential Russian openness to hold constructive negotiations on Ukraine,” she says, “it is too soon to jump to those conclusions.”
Greene agrees that the swap is unlikely to have a big impact on the war, but he does see room for hope. It upends the Western narrative that there isn’t really a negotiating partner for diplomatic outreach in Moscow. While the prisoner swap didn’t involve anything else Moscow is otherwise fighting for — at least as far as we know — there is one bonus for Russia: “It does kind of send a message or can be seen to send the message that there is a negotiating partner in the Kremlin,” he says.
And Moscow may see this as a now-or-never moment, Greene says. Western F-16s are now landing in Ukraine, which improves Ukrainian capabilities, and the US election looks a little bit less likely to go the way Putin wants (read: for Donald Trump), while the Russians are making progress on the front lines but at a huge cost.
“So maybe they do want to send that signal,” says Greene.
We’ll be watching for any signs of Moscow’s willingness to negotiate.
Russia and China benefit from US infighting, says David Sanger
On GZERO World, David Sanger, Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times journalist and author of "New Cold Wars," argues that while China seeks to become the top global power by 2049, Russia, lacking such aspirations, acts as a disruptor on the international stage. Sanger also notes how both countries have an interest in fueling instability in the U.S., amplifying chaos to distract American focus from their strategic ambitions. He tells Ian Bremmer, "China wants to be the top dog by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Revolution and of Mao declaring the state. And they want to be the top dog of something worth being the top dog of. The Russians have no hope for that. So their only source of power is as a disruptor, and that's the friction between these two that may come into play."
Sanger also argues that both Russia AND China have an interest in sowing internal discord in the United States. "They have every incentive, both of them, Russia and China, to be subtle actors in the background of this coming presidential election. And that's one area where if they are not cooperating, it would pay them off considerably to coordinate."
Watch Ian Bremmer's full interview with David Sanger on GZERO World - Are we on the brink of a new cold war?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
- Are we on the brink of a new cold war? ›
- The next era of global superpower competition: a conversation with the New York Times' David Sanger ›
- What China and Russia share ›
- Trump: I would encourage Russia to attack 'delinquent' NATO allies ›
- The threat of foreign interference to the US election ›
- Who would Putin vote for? ›
- It’s election interference season — always ›
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Could Alexei Navalny be traded for a killer?
According to the Wall Street Journal, Russian dissident Alexei Navalny’s name has come up in possible prisoner-swap scenarios between Russia, Germany, and the US.
At the moment, two US citizens are jailed in Russia on what the US says are bogus charges: US marine veteran Paul Whelan, and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich.
Meanwhile, Russia has long sought the extradition of a Russian government hitman, Vadim Krasikov, who was jailed for life in Germany after murdering an alleged Chechen rebel in broad daylight in Berlin in 2019.
Germany has been reluctant to surrender Krasikov, but Russia’s insistence could reportedly open the way for a broader deal that could involve Whelan, Gershkovich, or even Navalny.
If so, it would raise some interesting questions. Navalny, Vladimir Putin’s most prominent critic, has been in solitary confinement for nearly two years. He was jailed after returning to Russia following a brief stay in Germany, where he was sent to recover from what was almost certainly an attempt by Russian agents to poison him to death.
Would Navalny even want to be released if it meant going into exile? Not that he’d be asked his opinion on the matter, but Navalny — who is well known in the West but supported only by a small sliver of well-educated Russians at home — staked a lot on the brave act of returning to a Russia that he knew would jail him on arrival.
In a country where being seen as a political pet of the West is often the kiss of death, extraditing Navalny to Europe in a deal for Krasikov could end up being a win-win for Putin.
For more on this, seeour interview with the director of the Oscar-winning documentary Navalny.
Ian Explains: Why Russia has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council
Why does Russia have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council?
On August 1, the United States will take over the Security Council presidency and it has a lot of major issues on the agenda, including food security, human rights, and addressing ongoing humanitarian crises in Haiti and Sudan.
But with Russia a permanent, veto-wielding member of the Council, the chances of any major resolutions the United States proposes actually passing are pretty slim, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
To understand why Russia has a permanent seat, you have to go back to the creation of the UN in 1945. The winners of World War II–the Americans and the allies–built the UN, including the Security Council. The five permanent members? They’re the WWII winners: the US, UK, France, China, and the Soviet Union.
By 1948, allies had quickly turned to adversaries as the Iron Curtain went up. But it was too late–the Security Council was created, enshrined, and fundamentally broken, all within three years.
Eighty years after its creation, it’s clear the Council no longer reflects the current reality. Veto power in the hands of geopolitical rivals keeps it from passing meaningful resolutions, and there are no countries from Latin America, Africa, or the Caribbean with permanent seats.
“A Security Council that retains the power of the veto in the hands of a few will still lead us to war,” said Barbados Prime Minister during the 2022 UN General Assembly.
There’s no question that we need a more effective and inclusive body to protect international peace in the modern era. But can the UN’s 193 member states put aside their differences to create it?
Watch Ian Explains for the full breakdown, and for more on the US, watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
- Explaining: the history of the UN headquarters ›
- The UN turns 75 — is it still relevant? ›
- As Sudan war worsens, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield says UN must help ›
- UN official: Security Council Is “dysfunctional” - but UN is not ›
- UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Russia, human rights, & the Security Council presidency - GZERO Media ›
- Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Russia, Sudan & the power of diplomacy - GZERO Media ›
- Russia undermines everything the UN stands for, says Linda Thomas-Greenfield - GZERO Media ›
- UN Security Council: Liberia’s top diplomat joins calls for Africa’s representation - GZERO Media ›
French President Emmanuel Macron.
What We’re Watching: A big day for Macron, Taiwan’s friend list, Russia droning on
A tense France waits
It’s a big day for French President Emmanuel Macron. After months of protests, strikes, and piling up trash, the National Assembly is set to decide on whether – and how – to vote on the president’s very unpopular pension reform plan, which would raise the national retirement age by two years to 64. (For a reminder of what’s at stake with this reform, why Macron says it is necessary, and why two-thirds of French despise it, see our explainer here.)
With only a slim majority in the lower house, Macron’s bloc needs support from at least some center-right lawmakers from Les Republicains to see this through, but it is still unclear if he’ll have the numbers, particularly since some of his own coalition members say they won't back the bill.
Macron now faces a very tough choice: call for a vote and risk losing the fight over his biggest domestic priority, which would see him turned into a lame duck president for the remainder of his five-year term. Or trigger a constitutional loophole that would rush the bill through without a vote but risk setting the streets on fire. If he chooses the latter, unions warn, his government will pay a hefty price...
Honduras unfriends Taiwan
(The People's Republic of) China swiped one of Taiwan's few remaining diplomatic chips this week when Honduras announced it'll change official recognition of China's government from Taipei to Beijing.
It's unclear why Honduran President Xiomara Castro — who promised to switch sides before she was elected in 2021 but then walked it back once in power — changed her mind again. Regardless, Honduras’ U-turn will surely overshadow Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit next week to Central America. Taiwan still has friends there in Belize and Guatemala, but Xi Jinping is spending big in the region to counter Taipei's diplomatic clout.
China, for its part, is paying more attention to the second leg of Tsai's trip. She also plans to travel to California to meet US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who finally decided against irking Beijing by emulating his predecessor with his own Taiwan visit.
Where’s the drone?
After the encounter between a Russian fighter jet and an American-made drone above the Black Sea, some have warned of a risk of an escalation in the Ukraine war that pits Russia directly against the US. That’s extremely unlikely.
The Biden administration, which on Thursday gave the US military the green light to release footage of the crash, has been clear and consistent that its support for Ukraine won’t include actions that bring US and NATO soldiers into direct conflict with Russian forces. And though Vladimir Putin has tried to persuade Russians and the world that Russia’s at war with the West, he has avoided any action that might push his military into a broader war it would quickly lose. (If Putin wanted a wider war, it would be very easy to start one.)
Nor is this incident particularly unusual. As the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War noted on Tuesday, “Russian forces have used coercive signaling against US and allied flights and naval vessels for decades in multiple theaters without triggering conflict.” The US will continue to use drones in the Black Sea to provide Ukraine with intel on Russian actions. But there is one aspect of this story we’re still watching: Can Russia recover the wreckage of the drone? If so, and it’s in decent condition, it might give Russian engineers access to advanced drone technologies they don’t already have.A motorist rides past a hoarding decorated with flowers to welcome G20 foreign ministers in New Delhi, India, March 1, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Tense G-20 talks in India, Finland’s fence-building, China’s economic activity, Chicago’s mayoral runoff
An awkward G-20 summit in Delhi
When G-20 foreign ministers met in New Delhi on Thursday, it was, as expected, an awkward affair. While India, the current G-20 chair, had hoped that the bloc would focus on issues of importance to the Global South, like climate change and the global food crisis, the agenda was disrupted by US-Russia bickering over the war in Ukraine, which US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called "unprovoked and unjustified war", while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov blamed the West for not doing enough to extend a deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports that will soon expire. Of course, focusing on anything else was going to be a tall order when the top diplomats of the US, China, and Russia were all in the same room. (President Biden and Xi Jinping last met at the G-20 summit in Bali in November, though there was no bilateral meeting between the US and Russia.) In a sign of how fractured Washington's relationship remains with these two states, Blinken on Wednesday again urged Beijing not to send lethal weapons to Russia and canned China’s peace plan for Ukraine. As for US-Russia relations … need we say more? India, which has gone to painstaking lengths to maintain its neutral status over the past year, says it thinks the group can get stuff done. But at a meeting last month of G-20 financial heads, the group couldn’t even agree on a joint statement.
Finland builds a border fence against Russia
Rakentaa se aita! That's Finnish for "Build that fence!" — which is what Finland plans to do to protect its borders from Russian draft dodgers. Construction of a 10-foot tall wall, ahem, fence began this week along Finland's 800-mile border with Russia, with the first section expected to be finished by June. The Finns want to stop Russians from entering after fleeing the draft to fight in Ukraine, a number that could rise if Vladimir Putin orders another mobilization in the coming months. Meanwhile, Finland's parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved the government's plan to speed up the process to join NATO — ideally along with Sweden, a fellow Nordic, if Turkey ever backs off. Going back to the fence, parts of it will have all the bells and whistles — night-vision cameras, lights, and loudspeakers — that former US President Donald Trump could only dream of for his partially built "Big, beautiful wall." And like Mexico, you can bet that Russia won't pay for it.
Chinese economic activity rebounds
China's official manufacturing sector purchasing managers’ index — a closely watched indicator of economic activity — reached 52.6% in February, expanding at its fastest monthly pace in over a decade. What's more, home sales rose for the first time in two years amid a persistent property-sector slump. The good: The two figures beat expectations and are a clear sign that the world's second-largest economy is recovering quicker than expected after abruptly ditching zero-COVID. The bad: The starting point was very low, as China's GDP grew last year by only 3%, barely half of what the ruling Communist Party had targeted. The ugly: While this is excellent news for Xi Jinping and a global economy that's eager for both more Chinese demand for stuff and more Chinese capacity to make stuff, economic activity has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels. Also, China's economy is still facing strong pressure from the fallout of the US-China rivalry, with American companies feeling increasingly bearish about the future as ties between Beijing and Washington get icier.